1
|
Braga A, Laurini M. Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects across Brazilian biomes. Sci Rep 2024; 14:16414. [PMID: 39014072 PMCID: PMC11252347 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-67244-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2024] [Accepted: 07/09/2024] [Indexed: 07/18/2024] Open
Abstract
We present a methodology designed to study the spatial heterogeneity of climate change. Our approach involves decomposing the observed changes in temperature patterns into multiple trend, cycle, and seasonal components within a spatio-temporal model. We apply this method to test the hypothesis of a global long-term temperature trend against multiple trends in distinct biomes. Applying this methodology, we delve into the examination of heterogeneity of climate change in Brazil-a country characterized by a spectrum of climate zones. The findings challenge the notion of a global trend, revealing the presence of distinct trends in warming effects, and more accelerated trends for the Amazon and Cerrado biomes, indicating a composition between global warming and deforestation in determining changes in permanent temperature patterns.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Adriano Braga
- Department of Economics, University of São Paulo, Av. dos Bandeirantes 3900, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, 100190, Brazil
| | - Márcio Laurini
- Department of Economics, University of São Paulo, Av. dos Bandeirantes 3900, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, 100190, Brazil.
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Martinez PA, Teixeira IBDF, Siqueira-Silva T, da Silva FFB, Lima LAG, Chaves-Silveira J, Olalla-Tárraga MÅ, Gutiérrez JM, Amado TF. Climate change-related distributional range shifts of venomous snakes: a predictive modelling study of effects on public health and biodiversity. Lancet Planet Health 2024; 8:e163-e171. [PMID: 38453382 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(24)00005-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2022] [Revised: 12/11/2023] [Accepted: 01/16/2024] [Indexed: 03/09/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Climate change is expected to have profound effects on the distribution of venomous snake species, including reductions in biodiversity and changes in patterns of envenomation of humans and domestic animals. We estimated the effect of future climate change on the distribution of venomous snake species and potential knock-on effects on biodiversity and public health. METHODS We built species distribution models based on the geographical distribution of 209 medically relevant venomous snake species (WHO categories 1 and 2) and present climatic variables, and used these models to project the potential distribution of species in 2070. We incorporated different future climatic scenarios into the model, which we used to estimate the loss and gain of areas potentially suitable for each species. We also assessed which countries were likely to gain new species in the future as a result of species crossing national borders. We integrated the species distribution models with different socioeconomic scenarios to estimate which countries would become more vulnerable to snakebites in 2070. FINDINGS Our results suggest that substantial losses of potentially suitable areas for the survival of most venomous snake species will occur by 2070. However, some species of high risk to public health could gain climatically suitable areas for habitation. Countries such as Niger, Namibia, China, Nepal, and Myanmar could potentially gain several venomous snake species from neighbouring countries. Furthermore, the combination of an increase in climatically suitable areas and socioeconomic factors (including low-income and high rural populations) means that southeast Asia and Africa (and countries including Uganda, Kenya, Bangladesh, India, and Thailand in particular) could have increased vulnerability to snakebites in the future, with potential effects on public human and veterinary health. INTERPRETATION Loss of venomous snake biodiversity in low-income countries will affect ecosystem functioning and result in the loss of valuable genetic resources. Additionally, climate change will create new challenges to public health in several low-income countries, particularly in southeast Asia and Africa. The international community needs to increase its efforts to counter the effects of climate change in the coming decades. FUNDING German Research Foundation, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación de España, European Regional Development Fund.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Pablo Ariel Martinez
- Laboratório de Pesquisas Integrativas em Biodiversidade, Universidade Federal de Sergipe, São Cristóvão, Brazil; Instituto de Cambio Global, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Madrid, Spain.
| | | | - Tuany Siqueira-Silva
- Laboratório de Pesquisas Integrativas em Biodiversidade, Universidade Federal de Sergipe, São Cristóvão, Brazil
| | | | - Luiz Antônio Gonzaga Lima
- Laboratório de Pesquisas Integrativas em Biodiversidade, Universidade Federal de Sergipe, São Cristóvão, Brazil
| | - Jonatas Chaves-Silveira
- Laboratório de Pesquisas Integrativas em Biodiversidade, Universidade Federal de Sergipe, São Cristóvão, Brazil
| | | | - José María Gutiérrez
- Instituto Clodomiro Picado, Facultad de Microbiología, Universidad de Costa Rica, San José, Costa Rica
| | - Talita Ferreira Amado
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research, Leipzig, Germany; Institute of Biology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany.
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Lu Q, Liu H, Wei L, Zhong Y, Zhou Z. Global prediction of gross primary productivity under future climate change. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 912:169239. [PMID: 38072275 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169239] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2023] [Revised: 12/06/2023] [Accepted: 12/07/2023] [Indexed: 12/17/2023]
Abstract
The ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP) is crucial to land-atmosphere carbon exchanges, and changes in global GPP as well as its influencing factors have been well studied in recent years. However, identifying the spatio-temporal variations of global GPP under future climate changes is still a challenging issue. This study aims to develop data-driven approach for predicting the global GPP as well as its monthly and annual variations up to the year 2100 under changing climate. Specifically, Catboost was employed to examine the potential relationship between the GPP and environmental factors, with climate variables, CO2 concentration and terrain attributes being selected as environmental factors. The predicted monthly and annual GPP from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) under future SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were analyzed. The results indicate that the global GPP is predicted to increase under the future climate change in the 21st century. The annual GPP is expected to be 115.122 Pg C, 116.537 Pg C, 117.626 Pg C, and 120.097 Pg C in 2100 under four future scenarios, and the predicted monthly GPP shows seasonal difference. Meanwhile, GPP tends to increase in the northern mid-high latitude regions and decrease in the equatorial regions. For the climate zones form Köppen-Geiger classification, the arid, cold, and polar zones present increased GPP, while GPP in the tropical zone will decrease in the future. Moreover, the high importance of climate variables in GPP prediction illustrates that the future climate change is the main driver of the global GPP dynamics. This study provides a basis for predicting how global GPP responds to future climate change in the coming decades, which contribute to understanding the interactions between vegetation and climate.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Qikai Lu
- Faculty of Resources and Environmental Science, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China; Hubei Key Laboratory of Regional Development and Environmental Response, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China; Key Laboratory of Digital Mapping and Land Information Application, Ministry of Natural Resources, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China; Key Laboratory of Natural Resources Monitoring and Supervision in Southern Hilly Region, Ministry of Natural Resources, Second Surveying and Mapping Institute of Hunan Province, Changsha 410118, China
| | - Hui Liu
- Faculty of Resources and Environmental Science, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China
| | - Lifei Wei
- Faculty of Resources and Environmental Science, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China; Hubei Key Laboratory of Regional Development and Environmental Response, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China.
| | - Yanfei Zhong
- State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
| | - Zheng Zhou
- Changjiang Basin Ecology and Environment Monitoring and Scientific Research Center, Changjiang Basin Ecology and Environment Administration, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Wuhan 430010, China
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Tóth EG, Cseke K, Benke A, Lados BB, Tomov VT, Zhelev P, Kámpel JD, Borovics A, Köbölkuti ZA. Key triggers of adaptive genetic variability of sessile oak [Q. petraea (Matt.) Liebl.] from the Balkan refugia: outlier detection and association of SNP loci from ddRAD-seq data. Heredity (Edinb) 2023:10.1038/s41437-023-00629-2. [PMID: 37316726 PMCID: PMC10382515 DOI: 10.1038/s41437-023-00629-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2023] [Revised: 05/22/2023] [Accepted: 05/22/2023] [Indexed: 06/16/2023] Open
Abstract
Knowledge on the genetic composition of Quercus petraea in south-eastern Europe is limited despite the species' significant role in the re-colonisation of Europe during the Holocene, and the diverse climate and physical geography of the region. Therefore, it is imperative to conduct research on adaptation in sessile oak to better understand its ecological significance in the region. While large sets of SNPs have been developed for the species, there is a continued need for smaller sets of SNPs that are highly informative about the possible adaptation to this varied landscape. By using double digest restriction site associated DNA sequencing data from our previous study, we mapped RAD-seq loci to the Quercus robur reference genome and identified a set of SNPs putatively related to drought stress-response. A total of 179 individuals from eighteen natural populations at sites covering heterogeneous climatic conditions in the southeastern natural distribution range of Q. petraea were genotyped. The detected highly polymorphic variant sites revealed three genetic clusters with a generally low level of genetic differentiation and balanced diversity among them but showed a north-southeast gradient. Selection tests showed nine outlier SNPs positioned in different functional regions. Genotype-environment association analysis of these markers yielded a total of 53 significant associations, explaining 2.4-16.6% of the total genetic variation. Our work exemplifies that adaptation to drought may be under natural selection in the examined Q. petraea populations.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Endre Gy Tóth
- Department of Forest Tree Breeding, Forest Research Institute (UOS-FRI), University of Sopron, Várkerület 30/A, Sárvár, 9600, Hungary.
| | - Klára Cseke
- Department of Forest Tree Breeding, Forest Research Institute (UOS-FRI), University of Sopron, Várkerület 30/A, Sárvár, 9600, Hungary
| | - Attila Benke
- Department of Forest Tree Breeding, Forest Research Institute (UOS-FRI), University of Sopron, Várkerület 30/A, Sárvár, 9600, Hungary
| | - Botond B Lados
- Department of Forest Tree Breeding, Forest Research Institute (UOS-FRI), University of Sopron, Várkerület 30/A, Sárvár, 9600, Hungary
| | - Vladimir T Tomov
- Department of Landscape Architecture, Faculty of Ecology and Landscape Architecture, University of Forestry (UF), Kliment Ohridsky 10, Sofia, 1797, Bulgaria
| | - Petar Zhelev
- Department of Dendrology, Faculty of Forestry, University of Forestry (UF), Kliment Ohridsky 10, Sofia, 1797, Bulgaria
| | - József D Kámpel
- Ottó Herman Environmental and Agricultural Technical School, Vocational School and College (Agricultural Vocational Centre of the Kisalföld Region), Ernuszt Kelemen 1, Szombathely, 9700, Hungary
| | - Attila Borovics
- Department of Forest Tree Breeding, Forest Research Institute (UOS-FRI), University of Sopron, Várkerület 30/A, Sárvár, 9600, Hungary
| | - Zoltán A Köbölkuti
- Department of Forest Tree Breeding, Forest Research Institute (UOS-FRI), University of Sopron, Várkerület 30/A, Sárvár, 9600, Hungary
- Departement of Applied Forest Genetics Research, Bavarian Office for Forest Genetics (AWG), Forstamtsplatz 1, Teisendorf, 83317, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Allsup CM, George I, Lankau RA. Shifting microbial communities can enhance tree tolerance to changing climates. Science 2023; 380:835-840. [PMID: 37228219 DOI: 10.1126/science.adf2027] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 29.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2022] [Accepted: 04/04/2023] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is pushing species outside of their evolved tolerances. Plant populations must acclimate, adapt, or migrate to avoid extinction. However, because plants associate with diverse microbial communities that shape their phenotypes, shifts in microbial associations may provide an alternative source of climate tolerance. Here, we show that tree seedlings inoculated with microbial communities sourced from drier, warmer, or colder sites displayed higher survival when faced with drought, heat, or cold stress, respectively. Microbially mediated drought tolerance was associated with increased diversity of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, whereas cold tolerance was associated with lower fungal richness, likely reflecting a reduced burden of nonadapted fungal taxa. Understanding microbially mediated climate tolerance may enhance our ability to predict and manage the adaptability of forest ecosystems to changing climates.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Cassandra M Allsup
- Department of Plant Pathology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Isabelle George
- Department of Plant Pathology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Richard A Lankau
- Department of Plant Pathology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Tobias JA. A bird in the hand: Global-scale morphological trait datasets open new frontiers of ecology, evolution and ecosystem science. Ecol Lett 2022; 25:573-580. [PMID: 35199920 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13960] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Joseph A Tobias
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, UK
| |
Collapse
|