Estimates of COVID-19 deaths in Mainland China after abandoning zero COVID policy

Clinical characteristics and outcomes of BCMA-targeted CAR-T cell recipients with COVID-19 during the Omicron wave: a retrospective study

Patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma (R/R-MM) are more susceptible to develop severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) for their immunocompromised states. Despite good responses to B-cell maturation antigen (BCMA)-targeted chimeric antigen receptor (CAR)-T cell therapy, deficiencies in humoral immunity following CAR-T cell infusions can still cause life-threatening complications in these patients. We conducted a comparative study to delineate the clinical characteristics and outcomes between recipients of BCMA-targeted CAR-T cell therapy who contracted COVID-19 vs. unaffected counterparts. Advanced age (odds ratio [OR] = 1.367, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.017-1.838, P = 0.038) was a risk factor for developing severe COVID-19, while complete remission (CR) achieved by CAR-T cell therapy (OR = 0.012, 95% CI = 0.000-0.674, P = 0.032) was protective. Male sex (hazard ratio [HR] = 5.274, 95% CI = 1.584-17.562, P = 0.007) and CR achieved by CAR-T cell therapy (HR = 3.107, 95% CI = 1.025-9.418, P = 0.045) were protective factors associated with COVID-19 duration. CR achieved by CAR-T cell therapy (HR = 0.064, 95% CI = 0.007-0.589, P = 0.015) was also a protective factor for OS, while progression disease at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis (HR = 14.206, 95% CI = 1.555-129.819, P = 0.019) was regarded as a risk factor. Thus, older patients with R/R-MM and those who do not achieve CR after CAR-T cell therapy should be most protected from COVID-19 infection by the Omicron variant.

Healthcare professionals' perceptions of system preparedness during public health emergencies: a path analysis of mental health impacts

Background

The easing of COVID-19 policies in China appears to have been inadequately prepared, leading to a profound shift in the mental wellbeing of healthcare professionals following the lifting of these measures. Our study aims to investigate the pathways underlying negative emotions experienced by healthcare professionals due to perceived inadequate system preparedness, aiming to enhance their mental health protection and facilitate more effective responses during future large-scale public health crises.

Methods

A total of 826 healthcare professionals were enrolled. Depression symptoms, anxiety symptoms, perceived stress, resilience, perceived inadequate system preparedness were measured in our research.

Results

The prevalence of depression and anxiety symptoms among healthcare professionals were 32.1 and 16.2%, respectively, during the concentrated outbreak of COVID-19 in China after easing policy. The chain mediation analysis reveals that perceived inadequate system preparedness significantly directly predicts depression or anxiety symptoms among healthcare professionals, indirectly through the mediating role of stress, as well as via the chain mediation of stress and resilience. However, it does not predict these symptoms through the mediator of resilience alone. Furthermore, contracting COVID-19 directly predicts depression symptoms.

Conclusions

Perceived inadequate system preparedness can have a detrimental impact on negative emotions through various channels. When facing the potential outbreak of a large-scale public health event in the future, it is crucial to implement measures such as providing psychological counseling, increasing risk allowances, and ensuring an adequate supply of personal protective equipment to be better prepared. Additionally, psychosocial interventions should be implemented to enhance the resilience of healthcare professionals and safeguard the mental wellbeing of those infected with COVID-19, etc.

Psychological cost of Hong Kong's zero-COVID policy: three-wave repeated cross-sectional study of pandemic fatigue, pandemic fear and emotional well-being from peak pandemic to living-with-COVID policy shift

BACKGROUND

Hong Kong's 3-year dynamic zero-COVID policy has caused prolonged exposure to stringent, pervasive anti-epidemic measures, which poses additional stressors on emotional well-being through pandemic fatigue, beyond the incumbent fear of the pandemic.

AIMS

To investigate how major policy shifts in the zero-COVID strategy have corresponded with changing relationships between emotional well-being, pandemic fatigue from policy adherence, and pandemic fear, following the pandemic peak to a living-with-COVID policy.

METHOD

A three-wave repeated cross-sectional study (N = 2266) was conducted on the Chinese working-age population (18-64 years) during the peak outbreak (Wave 1), and subsequent policy shifts towards a living-with-COVID policy during the initial relaxation (Wave 2) and full relaxation (Wave 3) of anti-epidemic measures from March 2022 to March 2023. Non-parametric tests, consisting of robust analysis of covariance tests and quantile regression analysis, were performed.

RESULTS

The severity of all measures was lowered after Wave 1; however, extreme pandemic fears reported in Wave 2 (n = 38, 7.7%) were associated with worse emotional well-being than the pandemic peak (Wave 1), which then subsided in Wave 3. Pandemic fatigue posed greater negative emotional well-being in Wave 1, whereas pandemic fear was the dominant predictor in Waves 2 and 3.

CONCLUSIONS

Pandemic fatigue and pandemic fear together robustly highlight the psychological cost of prolonged pandemic responses, expanding on a framework for monitoring and minimising the unintended mental health ramifications of anti-epidemic policies.

Wastewater-based monitoring of antipyretics use during COVID-19 outbreak in China and its associated ecological risks

At the end of 2022, a sudden policy shift in China triggered an unprecedented COVID-19 outbreak that led to a dramatic increase in the consumption of antipyretics. In this study, the occurrence of the two most commonly used antipyretics (ibuprofen and paracetamol) and their metabolites were analyzed in the wastewater of nine major cities in China, covering the periods before, during, and after the policy change. The remarkable surge after the policy change for ibuprofen and paracetamol reached 67 times (in Nanning) and 311 times (in Lanzhou) compared to pre-pandemic levels, respectively. The variation of increases was mainly affected by the availability and the sampling period. During the outbreak period, direct discharge of high-drug-load wastewater could cause even higher risks; the RQ values were 0.43 for invertebrates in Lanzhou and 0.30 for fish in Nanning. Furthermore, during the post-pandemic period, wastewater discharge might pose high risks (RQ value was 2.58 in Xining to algae) associated with ibuprofen chronic toxicity. Fortunately, wastewater treatments would significantly reduce this risk to a low level (RQ < 0.1). In some less developed areas, the lack of a comprehensive wastewater treatment system may lead to the direct discharge of untreated wastewater due to exfiltration of sewers, overflow of combined sewers, or lack of centralized or decentralized treatment facilities. Establishing a comprehensive wastewater treatment system is of great importance, especially in remote and impoverished areas. These results indicated that the potential ecological risks associated with epidemic outbreaks should not be overlooked. These risks may be heightened due to acute toxicity during health incidents, such as the COVID-19 outbreak, providing valuable insights for ecological management in future public health crises.

Multicentre, multitime, multidimension, prospective follow-up cohort study on patients during the first wave of COVID-19 in China: a study protocol

INTRODUCTION

During the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in China, the surge of COVID-19 cases was rapid and drastic. Emerging evidence suggests that beyond the acute phase, patients with COVID-19 may experience a wide range of postacute or long COVID sequelae. However, the mechanism and burden of COVID-19, especially long COVID, have not yet been comprehensively clarified. To fill this knowledge gap, this large prospective follow-up study aims to investigate the short-term and long-term effects of COVID-19, explore the underlying biological mechanism and identify predictive neuroimaging and haematological biomarkers associated with these effects.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This multicentre study will recruit patients infected during the first wave of COVID-19 in China and healthy controls (HCs) with no history of COVID-19 infection from nine participating hospitals. Confirmed patients with mild or moderate COVID-19 will complete the following programmes during the acute infection phase and at 3, 12 and 24 months after infection: (a) blood test at the local laboratory, (b) multimodal brain and spine MRI scan and (c) the neuropsychological scales and questionnaires. Similarly, the uninfected HCs will complete the same programmes as the infected group mentioned above at the time of inclusion. At the first time point, 501 participants (418 patients and 83 HCs) from nine recruiting hospitals have been observed. Ultimately, all of these results will be analysed to explore the short-term and long-term effects of COVID-19.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval was granted by Ethics Committee of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU1AF2023LSK-013). Findings will be presented at national and international conferences, as well as published in peer-reviewed scientific journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05745805.

A Cohort Study of the Long-Term Influences of SARS-CoV-2 on Kidney Allograft Outcomes in Chinese Recipients: 1-Year Follow-Up Experience

Introduction

The aim of the study was to investigate the long-term effects of the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) infection and novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on prognosis of kidney transplant recipients.

Methods

A 1-year retrospective study was carried out among 362 domestic kidney transplant recipients who were divided into observational (COVID-19) and control groups. Stratification analysis was then carried out to investigate whether repeated infections and infection severity could influence graft prognosis. Kaplan-Meier curves assessed 1-year graft survival, while one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) compared graft function and laboratory parameters. Generalized estimating equations and repeated-measures ANOVA confirmed the magnitude of the impact of COVID-19 on kidney grafts. Generalized logistic regression and Cox regression established a model for analyzing COVID-19 risk factors. Meta-analysis and subgroup analysis were performed for validation.

Results

Exposure of COVID-19 had a significant effect on graft function within 1 year (p < 0.001), and this kind of effect was mostly brought by severer infections in the stratification analysis regarding graft survival rate (p < 0.001), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) level (p < 0.001), and 1-year eGFR slope (p = 0.014). Diagnostic model showed tacrolimus patients are less likely to get severe COVID-19 than cyclosporine (p = 0.004). Hyperglycemia (p = 0.004) and low hemoglobin (p = 0.023) are adverse factors for severe pneumonia. Hemoptysis, hypo-lymphopenia, high procalcitonin and ferritin are linked to poor allograft outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Conclusions

COVID-19 severity is linked to poor kidney allograft prognosis. Hyperglycemia, low hemoglobin, and drug protocols including cyclosporine rather than tacrolimus are correlated with COVID-19 pneumonia. Hemoptysis, low lymphocytes, high procalcitonin or ferritin were concerned with kidney allograft prognosis post-COVID-19.

Alteration of the airway microbiota is associated with the progression of post-COVID-19 chronic cough in adults: a prospective study

Cough is one of the most common symptoms observed in patients presenting with COVID-19, persisting for an extended duration following SARS-CoV-2 infection. We aim to describe the distribution of airway microbiota and explore its role in patients with post-COVID-19 chronic cough. A total of 57 patients experiencing persistent cough after infection were recruited during the Omicron wave of SARS-CoV-2 in China. Airway microbiota profiling is assessed in nasopharyngeal swab, nasal lavage, and induced sputum samples at 4 and 8 weeks after SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our findings reveal that bacterial families Staphylococcaceae, Corynebacteriaceae, and Enterobacteriaceae are the most prevalent in the upper airway, while Streptococcaceae, Lachnospiraceae, and Prevotellaceae emerge as the most prevalent bacterial families in the lower airway. An increase in the abundance of Staphylococcus in nasopharyngeal swab samples and of Streptococcus in induced sputum samples is observed after one month. Furthermore, the abundance of Staphylococcus identified in nasopharyngeal swab samples at the baseline period emerges as an insightful predictor for improvement in cough severity. In conclusion, dynamic alterations in the airway microbial composition may contribute to the post-COVID-19 chronic cough progression, while the compositional signatures of nasopharyngeal microbiota could reflect the improvement of this disease.

The spatiotemporal analysis of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in China since the termination of the dynamic zero-COVID policy

China's dynamic zero-COVID policy has effectively curbed the spread of SARS-CoV-2, while inadvertently creating immunity gaps within its population. Subsequent surges in COVID-19 cases linked to various SARS-CoV-2 lineages post-policy termination necessitate a thorough investigation into the epidemiological landscape. This study addresses this issue by analyzing a comprehensive dataset of 39,456 high-quality genomes collected nationwide over an 11-month period since policy termination. Through lineage assignment, phylogenetic analysis, pandemic pattern comparison, phylodynamic reconstruction, and recombination detection, we found that China's post-epidemic period could be divided into three stages, along with dynamic changes in dominant lineages. Geographical clustering of similar lineages implies the importance of cross-border cooperation among neighboring regions. Compared to the USA, UK, and Japan, China exhibits unique trajectories of lineage epidemics, characterized by initial lagging followed by subsequent advancement, indicating the potential influence of diverse prevention and control policies on lineage epidemic patterns. Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Hubei emerge as pivotal nodes in the nationwide spread, marking a shift in the transmission center from east to central regions of China. Although China hasn't experienced significant variant emergence, the detection and validation of the novel recombination event, XCN lineage, underscore the ongoing virus evolution. Overall, this study systematically analyzes the spatiotemporal transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus in China since the termination of the dynamic zero-COVID policy, offering valuable insights for regional surveillance and evidence-based public health policymaking.

Post-Pandemic Epidemiology of Respiratory Infections among Pediatric Inpatients in a Tertiary Hospital in Shanghai, China

BACKGROUND

After the removal of the three-year epidemic control restrictions, Chinese children were confronted with heightened risks of respiratory infections. We aimed to investigate the post-pandemic (2023) epidemiology of respiratory infections among pediatric inpatients in a tertiary hospital in Shanghai, China, and compare it with the pre-pandemic (2019) levels.

METHODS

A total of 2644 pediatric inpatients were enrolled based on discharge time and divided into group 2019 (n = 1442) and group 2023 (n = 1202). Information on the demographic characteristics, diagnoses, and pathogen test results (Mycoplasma pneumoniae, MP; Chlamydia pneumoniae, CP; Legionella pneumophila, LP; Influenza A, IFA; Influenza B, IFB; Parainfluenza virus, PIV; respiratory syncytial virus, RSV; Coxsackie virus, COX; Adenovirus, ADV; Epstein-Barr virus, EBV) was collected and analyzed.

RESULTS

Significant increases were found in the overall test positivity rates (64.6% vs. 46.7%), mixed infection rates (17.4% vs. 9%), and proportion of severe cases (25.5% vs. 3.7%) after the pandemic than those before it. Compared with 2019, the incidences of MP, IFA, LP, RSV, and ADV remarkably increased, while those of IFB and COX decreased, with no obvious differences noted for CP, PIV, and EBV in 2023. A significantly higher MP-positive detection rate was noticed in children aged 1-6 years in 2023 than in 2019. The incidence of RSV infection began to rise in August 2023, earlier than the conventional epidemic season.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with the pre-pandemic levels, the overall test positivity rates of atypical pathogens and viruses among pediatric inpatients significantly increased, and alterations in the disease spectrum, epidemic season, and age of prevalence were observed after the COVID-19 pandemic.

The association of calligraphy activities with peace of mind, stress self-management, and perceived health status in older adults

Introduction

Calligraphy, as a form of mindful practice, encourages focus, creativity, and relaxation, which collectively contribute to a more peaceful mental state. Through regular engagement in calligraphy, older adults can develop better coping mechanisms for stress, leading to more effective self-management of daily stressors. This enhanced ability to manage stress can reduce the overall burden on their mental and physical health, promoting a more positive outlook on life.

Methods

This study employed convenience sampling and snowball sampling to select 246 older adults aged 60-70 from Changsha, China, in March 2024 as valid samples. AMOS v.23 was used to construct a structural equation model to validate the hypotheses.

Results

The study found a significant positive correlation between calligraphy activities and peace of mind/stress self-management. There is also a significant positive correlation between peace of mind/stress self-management and perceived health status. Additionally, peace of mind and stress self-management act as mediators between calligraphy activities and perceived health status.

Discussion

This indicates that calligraphy activities not only contribute to the psychological well-being of older adults but also indirectly enhance their positive perception of their own health by improving their mental state. Consequently, such activities can be an integral part of holistic health interventions aimed at enhancing the quality of life and overall health of older adults.

Mitigating the influence of message features on health misinformation sharing intention in social media: Experimental evidence for accuracy-nudge intervention

RATIONALE

The escalating dissemination of health misinformation on social media platforms poses a significant threat to users' well-being. It is imperative to identify the types of health misinformation that are more susceptible to widespread dissemination and to explore strategies to curb its spread.

METHOD

This study designed a 2 (emotional appeal type: positive vs. negative) × 2 (fabricated source type: pseudo-common vs. pseudo-authoritative) × 2 (accuracy-nudge label: No vs. Yes) online between-subjects experiment controlling for factors such as e-health literacy, prior sharing experience, and personal involvement. A snowball sampling approach was used to recruit 1952 participants through social media, resulting in a final sample of 1393 valid responses.

RESULTS

Compared to positive emotional appeal and pseudo-common sources, negative emotional appeal and pseudo-authoritative sources resulted in higher levels of sharing intention. Under the condition of negative emotional appeal, the promotion effect of pseudo-authoritative sources on sharing intention was intensified. The accuracy-nudge intervention could significantly mitigate this tendency. The underlying mechanisms revealed more details: both negative emotional appeals and pseudo-authoritative sources increased the perceived credibility of health misinformation, thereby increasing users' sharing intention. However, in contrast to pseudo-authoritative sources, excessive negative emotional appeal induced vigilant verification behavior among users, which reduced sharing to some extent. Adding an accuracy-nudge label to health misinformation reduced users' misguided trust in health misinformation features and stimulated information verification, ultimately reducing health misinformation sharing intention.

CONCLUSIONS

Negative emotional appeal and pseudo-authoritative sources can enhance the perceived credibility of health misinformation, thereby strengthening the sharing intention of social media users. Therefore, health misinformation with negative emotional appeal and pseudo-authoritative sources is more likely to be widely shared. The accuracy nudge intervention can trigger users' information verification behavior, suppress the persuasive effects of the misinformation features mentioned above, and help prevent the spread of health misinformation on social media.

A national survey of pandemic fear and cyberchondria after ending zero-COVID policy: The chain mediating role of alexithymia and psychological distress

BACKGROUND

More than half the domestic population in China were infected with COVID-19 in two months after ending "zero-infection policy", which severely overwhelmed frontline healthcare providers with stress and fear. However, there is no study to date investigating the associations between nurses' fear of pandemic and cyberchondria. This study aimed to 1) investigate the correlations between fear pandemic and cyberchondria among frontline nurses, and 2) discover its potential mechanism.

METHODS

A cross-sectional sample of frontline nurses (N = 8161) was recruited from 98 hospitals across China in February 2023. Participants were invited to complete an online, self-rated standardized questionnaire focused on pandemic fear, alexithymia, psychological distress, and cyberchondria. Environmental, clinical and socioeconomic information were collected for adjustment while conducting chain mediation analysis.

RESULTS

When other covariates were controlled, it was found that fear of the pandemic significantly contributed to cyberchondria (b = 0.58, 95%CI [0.56, 0.60], p < .001). The chain mediation model suggested that both alexithymia and psychological distress were mediating factors between pandemic fear and cyberchondria.

CONCLUSIONS

The higher the perceived fear, the greater the cyberchondria, which suggests that reducing fear about the pandemic and providing adequate support could reduce the incidence of cyberchondria. As alexithymia and psychological distress may be transdiagnostic mechanisms between fear and cyberchondria, targeted interventions focused on expression dysregulation and emotional identification could be useful.

Analyses of academician cohorts generate biased pandemic excess death estimates

OBJECTIVE

Death data from cohorts of academicians have been used to estimate pandemic excess deaths. We aimed to evaluate the validity of this approach.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Data were analyzed from living and deceased member lists from Mainland China, UK and Greece academies; and Nobel laureates (and US subset thereof). Samples of early elected academicians were probed for unrecorded deaths; datasets overtly missing deaths were excluded from further analyses. Actuarial risks were compared against the general population in the same country in respective age strata. Relative incidence risk increases in death in active pandemic periods were compared to population-wide pandemic excess death estimates for the same country.

RESULTS

Royal Society and Academy of Athens datasets overtly missed deaths. Prepandemic death rates were 4- to 12-fold lower in the Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE) vs respective age strata of the Mainland China population. A +158% relative increase in death risk was seen in CAE data during the first 12-month of wide viral spread. Both increases (+34% in British Academy) and decreases (-27% in US Nobel laureates) in death rates occurred in pandemic (2020-22) vs prepandemic (2017-19) years; point estimates were far from known excess deaths in the respective countries (+6% and +14%, respectively). Published excess death estimates for urban-dwelling Mainland China selectively analyzed CAE that had double the pandemic death rates than another Chinese academy (Chinese Academy of Sciences).

CONCLUSION

Missingness, lack of representativeness, large uncertainty, and selective analysis reporting make data from academy rosters unreliable for estimating general population excess deaths.

Safety and efficacy of Paxlovid in the treatment of adults with mild to moderate COVID-19 during the omicron epidemic: a multicentre study from China

BACKGROUND

Since December 2022, the Omicron variant has led to a widespread pandemic in China. The study was to explore the safety and effectiveness of Paxlovid for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We included patients at risk of developing severe COVID-19, all of whom exhibited mild to moderate symptoms and were admitted to three hospital centers. Patients were divided into two groups: one received Paxlovid alongside standard care, while the other was given only standard care. We compared clinical characteristics, hospital stay duration, and clinical outcomes between two groups. Multi-factor analysis determined the independent risk factors influencing the duration of hospitalization and disease progression.

RESULTS

In the study, those treated with Paxlovid shorter hospital stays than those in the control group (p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis indicated that the absence of Paxlovid treatment was a distinct risk factor for hospitalizations lasting over 7 days (OR: 4.983, 95% CI: 3.828-6.486, p < 0.001) and 14 days (OR: 2.940, 95% CI: 2.402-3.597, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Amid the Omicron outbreak, Paxlovid has proven to be a safe and effective treatment for reducing hospitalization durations for patients with mild to moderate COVID-19.

Multicultural personality traits of Chinese university students and their effects on the psychological adjustment in the aftermath of COVID-19 in Shanghai: a scale validation

Objective

This study aims to explore Chinese university students' multicultural personalities and examine how they predict the psychological adjustment of students in Shanghai. In addition, the validation of Multicultural Personality Questionnaire Short Form (MPQ-SF) scale developed to assess the multicultural personality traits of individuals is also aimed in Chinese context. Data were collected after the psychological stresses from restrictions imposed by COVID-19 in China that influenced life adjustments for nearly three years.

Method

A total of 1,099 university students participated in this multi-stage study. First, the Chinese version of MPQ-SF (MPQ-SF-C) was developed and validated. The impact of MPQ-SF-C dimensions was then tested through path analysis to establish the effects of Chinese university students' multicultural personality traits on their psychological adjustment using the Schwartz Outcome Scale (SOS-10).

Results

The MPQ-SF-C yielded a five-factor solution which accounted for 60.14% of the common variance. The findings indicated that cultural empathy (β = 0.23, p < 0.05), certainty seeking (β = 0.13, p < 0.05), open-mindedness (β = 0.48, p < 0.05), and emotional stability (β = 0.24, p < 0.05) had significant influences on adjustment. Only flexibility was found to have a statistically insignificant impact on adjustment at this time in this context. MPQ-SF-C and SOS-10 scales represented very good psychometric properties in terms of their reliability and validity.

Conclusion

The MPQ-SF-C shows good psychometric properties and appropriateness for evaluating multicultural personalities in Chinese contexts. The multicultural personality characteristics of university students using this scale well predicted their psychological adjustment.

Analysis of health service utilization and influencing factors due to COVID-19 in Beijing: a large cross-sectional survey

BACKGROUND

In the wake of China's relaxed zero-COVID policy, there was a surge in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections. This study aimed to examine the infection status and health service utilization among Beijing residents during a widespread outbreak, and to explore the factors that affected utilization of health services due to COVID-19.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey was conducted among Beijing residents from 13 January to 13 February 2023, collecting information on socio-demographic characteristics, health behaviours, COVID-19 infection status, utilization of health services and depressive symptoms. Multivariate Tobit regression was used for data analysis.

RESULTS

Among the 53 924 participants, 14.7% were older than 60 years, 63.7% were female and 84.8% were married. In total, 44 992 of the 53 924 individuals surveyed (83.4%) contracted COVID-19 during 2020-2023, and 25.2% (13 587) sought corresponding health services. The majority of individuals (85.6%) chose in-person healthcare, while 14.4% chose internet-based healthcare. Among those who chose in-person healthcare, 58.6% preferred primary healthcare institutions and 41.5% were very satisfied with the treatment. Factors affecting health service utilization include being female (β = -0.15, P < 0.001), older than 60 years (β = 0.23, P < 0.01), non-healthcare workers (β = -0.60, P < 0.001), rich self-rated income level (β = 0.59, P < 0.001), having underlying disease (β = 0.51, P < 0.001), living alone (β = -0.19, P < 0.05), depressive symptoms (β = 0.06, P < 0.001) and healthy lifestyle habits, as well as longer infection duration, higher infection numbers and severe symptoms.

CONCLUSION

As COVID-19 is becoming more frequent and less severe, providing safe and accessible healthcare remains critical. Vulnerable groups such as the elderly and those with underlying conditions need reliable health service. Prioritizing primary healthcare resources and online medical services have played a vital role in enhancing resource utilization efficiency.

Severe pneumonia with co-infection of H5N1 and SARS-CoV-2: a case report

BACKGROUND

The H5N1 influenza virus is a cause of severe pneumonia. Co-infection of influenza virus and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may lead to poor prognosis of patients during the COVID-19 epidemic. However, reports on patients co-infected with avian influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 are scarce.

CASE PRESENTATION

A 52-year-old woman presented with a fever, which has persisted for the past eight days, along with worsening shortness of breath and decreased blood pressure. Computed tomography (CT) revealed an air bronchogram, lung consolidation, and bilateral pleural effusion. The subsequent polymerase chain reaction (PCR) of the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) revealed positivity for H5N1 and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

CONCLUSION

The H5N1 influenza virus is a cause of severe pneumonia. The clinical presentation of the patient had a predomination of H5N1 influenza rather than COVID-19. A PCR analysis for the identification of the virus is necessary to reveal the pathogen causing the severe pneumonia. The patient exhibited an excellent prognosis upon the use of the appropriate antiviral medicine.

Increase in complicated upper respiratory tract infection in children during the 2022/2023 winter season-a post coronavirus disease 2019 effect?

BACKGROUND

Upper respiratory tract infections usually peak during winter months.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether imaging of complicated upper airway infection in children increased during the winter season of 2022/2023.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In a retrospective study setting, pediatric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and computed tomography (CT) scans for evaluation of upper respiratory tract infection performed between October 2022 and April 2023 were analyzed regarding presence of the following complications: mastoiditis, abscess, phlegmon, meningitis, reactive vasculitis, and sinus vein thrombosis. Pathogen detection, surgery, and infection parameters were obtained. Data were compared with MRI and CT scans performed in the same months of the preceding five years, distinguishing between pandemic and pre-pandemic years.

RESULTS

During the 2022/2023 winter season, the number of MRI and CT scans in children with upper airway infections, the complication rate, the rate of detected streptococcal infections, and the rate of surgery increased significantly compared to expectations based on the five prior winter seasons (all P<0.05). During the first complete pandemic winter season in Europe (2020/2021), the number of MRI and CT scans in children with upper airway infection, the complication rate, and the rates of streptococcal detection and surgery decreased significantly compared to expectations based on the pre-pandemic, the second pandemic, and the post-pandemic winter seasons (all P<0.05).

CONCLUSION

After a decline during the first pandemic winter season, there was a marked rebound in complicated upper airway infection in children, with a significant increase in cases during the 2022/2023 winter season compared to the pre-pandemic and pandemic years.

COVID-19 Omicron variant infection has minimal impact on maternal and neonatal outcomes: A cross-sectional cohort study

AIM

To explore the impact of the Omicron variant on maternal and neonatal outcomes.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional cohort study of women giving live birth in a single hospital in Shanghai in December 2022.

METHODS

Demographic characteristics, maternal and neonatal outcomes and laboratory testing results were retrieved from medical records. Propensity score matching was used to match COVID-19-positive and -negative women. Differential analysis was used to assess associations between COVID-19 and in-hospital maternal and neonatal outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 1508 women were included, comprising 729 natural births, 741 caesarean sections and 38 forceps deliveries. After 1:1 matching, 310 clients were included for analysis with each 155 in COVID-19-positive and -negative groups. Higher maternal fever was found in all modes of delivery, and higher preterm birth and lower pH value of blood gas of the umbilical artery in the vaginal delivery subgroup (p < 0.05). Other maternal and neonatal outcomes showed no significant difference between COVID-19-positive and -negative clients.

Urban Health Scholarship and Practice in the Post-Pandemic Era

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted several challenges that cities face that can affect the health of urban populations. These challenges are an opportunity for sharpening of our urban health scholarship, to rethink the questions the field should be asking, and how the answers to those questions should guide practice. The central role of inequities in cities, the politics of urban health, communication for health, the deployment of health care, and the future of urban living are all areas that merit attention by scholars and practitioners in the field in coming decades.

The coming Omicron waves and factors affecting its spread after China reopening borders

The Chinese government relaxed the Zero-COVID policy on Dec 15, 2022, and reopened the border on Jan 8, 2023. Therefore, COVID prevention in China is facing new challenges. Though there are plenty of prior studies on COVID, none is regarding the predictions on daily confirmed cases, and medical resources needs after China reopens its borders. To fill this gap, this study innovates a combination of the Erdos Renyl network, modified computational model [Formula: see text], and python code instead of only mathematical formulas or computer simulations in the previous studies. The research background in this study is Shanghai, a representative city in China. Therefore, the results in this study also demonstrate the situation in other regions of China. According to the population distribution and migration characteristics, we divided Shanghai into six epidemic research areas. We built a COVID spread model of the Erodos Renyl network. And then, we use python code to simulate COVID spread based on modified [Formula: see text] model. The results demonstrate that the second and third waves will occur in July-September and Oct-Dec, respectively. At the peak of the epidemic in 2023, the daily confirmed cases will be 340,000, and the cumulative death will be about 31,500. Moreover, 74,000 hospital beds and 3,700 Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds will be occupied in Shanghai. Therefore, Shanghai faces a shortage of medical resources. In this simulation, daily confirmed cases predictions significantly rely on transmission, migration, and waning immunity rate. The study builds a mixed-effect model to verify further the three parameters' effect on the new confirmed cases. The results demonstrate that migration and waning immunity rates are two significant parameters in COVID spread and daily confirmed cases. This study offers theoretical evidence for the government to prevent COVID after China opened its borders.

Why is it necessary to improve COVID-19 vaccination coverage in older people? How to improve the vaccination coverage?

In accordance with the COVID-19 surveillance data from Hong Kong, over 95% fatal cases were elderly patients aged ≥60 years, and the median age of the dead cases was 86 years in the fifth COVID-19 wave. COVID-19 case fatality rates increased with age, vaccinations offered notable protection against COVID-19 death, and the protection was enhanced as the doses of vaccinations increased. The data fully demonstrated that elderly people were the main group of victims in the COVID-19 pandemic, and the vaccination was a vital weapon against COVID-19 in elderly people. In light of the experience of China's COVID-19 response, the measures to improve COVID-19 vaccination coverage in older people were shown as follows: dispatching volunteers into residential communities to urge older people to complete COVID-19 vaccinations; ascertaining the vaccination status of elderly people suffering from underlying diseases; mobilizing various public institutions to participate in COVID-19 response; releasing a great deal of news via mass media every day to educate the elderly about COVID-19 prevention and control measures; assisting elderly people in rural and remote areas through drug distribution and emergency reserves.

Flaws and uncertainties in pandemic global excess death calculations

Several teams have been publishing global estimates of excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we examine potential flaws and underappreciated sources of uncertainty in global excess death calculations. Adjusting for changing population age structure is essential. Otherwise, excess deaths are markedly overestimated in countries with increasingly aging populations. Adjusting for changes in other high-risk indicators, such as residence in long-term facilities, may also make a difference. Death registration is highly incomplete in most countries; completeness corrections should allow for substantial uncertainty and consider that completeness may have changed during pandemic years. Excess death estimates have high sensitivity to modelling choice. Therefore different options should be considered and the full range of results should be shown for different choices of pre-pandemic reference periods and imposed models. Any post-modelling corrections in specific countries should be guided by pre-specified rules. Modelling of all-cause mortality (ACM) in countries that have ACM data and extrapolating these models to other countries is precarious; models may lack transportability. Existing global excess death estimates underestimate the overall uncertainty that is multiplicative across diverse sources of uncertainty. Informative excess death estimates require risk stratification, including age groups and ethnic/racial strata. Data to-date suggest a death deficit among children during the pandemic and marked socioeconomic differences in deaths, widening inequalities. Finally, causal explanations require great caution in disentangling SARS-CoV-2 deaths, indirect pandemic effects and effects from measures taken. We conclude that excess deaths have many uncertainties, but globally deaths from SARS-CoV-2 may be the minority of calculated excess deaths.

Composite Interventions on Outcomes of Severely and Critically Ill Patients with COVID-19 in Shanghai, China

Background: The sixty-day effects of initial composite interventions for the treatment of severely and critically ill patients with COVID-19 are not fully assessed. Methods: Using a Bayesian piecewise exponential model, we analyzed the 60-day mortality, health-related quality of life (HRQoL), and disability in 1082 severely and critically ill patients with COVID-19 between 8 December 2022 and 9 February 2023 in Shanghai, China. The final 60-day follow-up was completed on 10 April 2023. Results: Among 1082 patients (mean age, 78.0 years, 421 [38.9%] women), 139 patients (12.9%) died within 60 days. Azvudine had a 99.8% probability of improving 2-month survival (adjusted HR, 0.44 [95% credible interval, 0.24-0.79]), and Paxlovid had a 91.9% probability of improving 2-month survival (adjusted HR, 0.71 [95% credible interval, 0.44-1.14]) compared with the control. IL-6 receptor antagonist, baricitinib and a-thymosin each had a high probability of benefit (99.5%, 99.4%, and 97.5%, respectively) compared to their controls, while the probability of trail-defined statistical futility (HR > 0.83) was high for therapeutic anticoagulation (99.8%; HR, 1.64 [95% CrI, 1.06-2.50]) and glucocorticoid (91.4%; HR, 1.20 [95% CrI, 0.71-2.16]). Paxlovid, Azvudine, and therapeutic anticoagulation showed a significant reduction in disability (p < 0.05) Conclusions: Among severely and critically ill patients with COVID-19 who received 1 or more therapeutic interventions, treatment with Azvudine had a high probability of improved 60-day mortality compared with the control, indicating its potential in a resource-limited scenario. Treatment with an IL-6 receptor antagonist, baricitinib, and a-thymosin also had high probabilities of benefit in improving 2-month survival, among which a-thymosin could improve HRQoL. Treatment with Paxlovid, Azvudine, and therapeutic anticoagulation could significantly reduce disability at day 60.

Forecast for peak infections in the second wave of the Omicron after the adjustment of zero-COVID policy in the mainland of China

On December 7, 2022, the Chinese government optimized the current epidemic prevention and control policy, and no longer adopted the zero-COVID policy and mandatory quarantine measures. Based on the above policy changes, this paper establishes a compartment dynamics model considering age distribution, home isolation and vaccinations. Parameter estimation was performed using improved least squares and Nelder-Mead simplex algorithms combined with modified case data. Then, using the estimated parameter values to predict a second wave of the outbreak, the peak of severe cases will reach on 8 May 2023, the number of severe cases will reach 206,000. Next, it is proposed that with the extension of the effective time of antibodies obtained after infection, the peak of severe cases in the second wave of the epidemic will be delayed, and the final scale of the disease will be reduced. When the effectiveness of antibodies is 6 months, the severe cases of the second wave will peak on July 5, 2023, the number of severe cases is 194,000. Finally, the importance of vaccination rates is demonstrated, when the vaccination rate of susceptible people under 60 years old reaches 98%, and the vaccination rate of susceptible people over 60 years old reaches 96%, the peak of severe cases in the second wave of the epidemic will be reached on 13 July 2023, when the number of severe cases is 166,000.

The Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on Overall and Cause-Specific Mortality in Pavia, Northern Italy: Updated Estimates for the Year 2021

Excess mortality estimates are considered relevant indicators of direct and indirect pandemic effects on the population. Scant data have been published on cause-specific excess mortality. Using individual-level administrative data covering the Pavia province of Italian northern Lombardy region, we provided all-cause and cause-specific raw (RMR) and age-standardized (ASMR) mortality rates in 2021 and 2015-2019, the rate ratio, and 95% confidence intervals, overall and by sex. We obtained the excess deaths in 2021 as the difference between the number of observed and expected deaths from all causes and the two leading causes of death (all neoplasms and circulatory system diseases) by fitting over-dispersed quasi-Poisson regression models, accounting for temporal, seasonal and demographic changes. The total ASMR in 2021 was 972.4/100,000 (6836 certified deaths), with the highest ASMRs for circulatory system diseases (272.6/100,000) and all neoplasms (270.3/100,000), followed by COVID-19 (94.8/100,000 and 662 deaths). Compared to the expected, we estimated a total of 6.2% excess deaths in 2021 (7.2% in males and 5.4% in females), with no excess deaths from all neoplasms and a 6.2% reduction from circulatory system diseases. COVID-19 continued to affect total mortality in 2021, albeit to a lesser extent than in 2020, consistently with national patterns.