Evolutionary stability of the lysis-lysogeny decision: Why be virulent?

Eco-evolutionary dynamics of temperate phages in periodic environments

Bacteriophages (viruses that exclusively infect bacteria) exhibit a continuum of infection mechanisms, including lysis and lysogeny in interactions with bacterial hosts. Recent work has demonstrated the short-term advantages of lysogeny over lysis in conditions of low host availability. Hence, temperate phage which can switch between lytic and lysogenic strategies-both stochastically and responsively-are hypothesized to have an evolutionary advantage in a broad range of conditions. However, the long-term advantages of lysogeny are not well understood, particularly when environmental conditions vary over time. To examine generalized drivers of viral strategies over the short- and long-term, we explore the eco-evolutionary dynamics of temperate viruses in periodic environments with varying levels of host availability and viral mortality. We use a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations to simulate periodically-forced dynamics that separate a 'within-growth' phase and a 'between-growth' phase, in which a (potentially unequal) fraction of virus particles and lysogens survive. Using this ecological model and invasion analysis, we show and quantify how conflicts can arise between strategies in the short term that may favour lysis and strategies in the long term that may favour lysogeny. In doing so, we identify a wide range of conditions in which temperate strategies can outperform obligately lytic or lysogenic strategies. Finally, we demonstrate that temperate strategies can mitigate against the potential local extinction of viruses in stochastically fluctuating environments, providing further evidence of the eco-evolutionary benefits of being temperate.

Evolution of virulence in emerging epidemics: from theory to experimental evolution and back

The experimental validation of theoretical predictions is a crucial step in demonstrating the predictive power of a model. While quantitative validations are common in infectious diseases epidemiology, experimental microbiology primarily focuses on the evaluation of a qualitative match between model predictions and experiments. In this study, we develop a method to deepen the quantitative validation process with a polymorphic viral population. We analyse the data from an experiment carried out to monitor the evolution of the temperate bacteriophage λ spreading in continuous cultures of Escherichia coli. This experimental work confirmed the influence of the epidemiological dynamics on the evolution of transmission and virulence of the virus. A variant with larger propensity to lyse bacterial cells was favoured in emerging epidemics (when the density of susceptible cells was large), but counter-selected when most cells were infected. Although this approach qualitatively validated an important theoretical prediction, no attempt was made to fit the model to the data nor to further develop the model to improve the goodness of fit. Here, we show how theoretical analysis-including calculations of the selection gradients-and model fitting can be used to estimate key parameters of the phage life cycle and yield new insights on the evolutionary epidemiology of the phage λ. First, we show that modelling explicitly the infected bacterial cells which will eventually be lysed improves the fit of the transient dynamics of the model to the data. Second, we carry out a theoretical analysis that yields useful approximations that capture at the onset and at the end of an epidemic the effects of epidemiological dynamics on selection and differentiation across distinct life stages of the virus. Finally, we estimate key phenotypic traits characterizing the two strains of the virus used in our experiment such as the rates of prophage reactivation or the probabilities of lysogenization. This study illustrates the synergy between experimental, theoretical, and statistical approaches; and especially how interpreting the temporal variation in the selection gradient and the differentiation across distinct life stages of a novel variant is a powerful tool to elucidate the evolutionary epidemiology of emerging infectious diseases.

An Eco-evolutionary Model on Surviving Lysogeny Through Grounding and Accumulation of Prophages

Temperate phages integrate into the bacterial genomes propagating along with the bacterial genomes. Multiple phage elements, representing diverse prophages, are present in most bacterial genomes. The evolutionary events and the ecological dynamics underlying the accumulation of prophage elements in bacterial genomes have yet to be understood. Here, we show that the local wastewater had 7% of lysogens (hosting mitomycin C-inducible prophages), and they showed resistance to superinfection by their corresponding lysates. Genomic analysis of four lysogens and four non-lysogens revealed the presence of multiple prophages (belonging to Myoviridae and Siphoviridae) in both lysogens and non-lysogens. For large-scale comparison, 2180 Escherichia coli genomes isolated from various sources across the globe and 523 genomes specifically isolated from diverse wastewaters were analyzed. A total of 15,279 prophages were predicted among 2180 E. coli genomes and 2802 prophages among 523 global wastewater isolates, with a mean of ~ 5 prophages per genome. These observations indicate that most putative prophages are relics of past bacteria-phage conflicts; they are "grounded" prophages that cannot excise from the bacterial genome. Prophage distribution analysis based on the sequence homology suggested the random distribution of E. coli prophages within and between E. coli clades. The independent occurrence pattern of these prophages indicates extensive horizontal transfers across the genomes. We modeled the eco-evolutionary dynamics to reconstruct the events that could have resulted in the prophage accumulation accounting for infection, superinfection immunity, and grounding. In bacteria-phage conflicts, the bacteria win by grounding the prophage, which could confer superinfection immunity.

Alternating lysis and lysogeny is a winning strategy in bacteriophages due to Parrondo's paradox

SignificanceBacteriophages, the most widespread reproducing biological entity on Earth, employ two strategies of virus-host interaction: lysis of the host cell and lysogeny whereby the virus genome integrates into the host genome and propagates vertically with it. We present a population model that reveals an effect known as Parrondo's paradox in game theory: Alternating between lysis and lysogeny is a winning strategy for a bacteriophage, even when each strategy individually is at a disadvantage compared with a competing bacteriophage. Thus, evolution of bacteriophages appears to optimize the ratio between the lysis and lysogeny propensities rather than the phage burst size in any individual phase. This phenomenon is likely to be relevant for understanding evolution of other host-parasites systems.

Host life-history traits influence the distribution of prophages and the genes they carry

Bacterial strains with a short minimal doubling time-'fast-growing' hosts-are more likely to contain prophages than their slow-growing counterparts. Pathogenic bacterial species are likewise more likely to carry prophages. We develop a bioinformatics pipeline to examine the distribution of prophages in fast- and slow-growing lysogens, and pathogenic and non-pathogenic lysogens, analysing both prophage length and gene content for each class. By fitting these results to a mathematical model of the evolutionary forces acting on prophages, we predict whether the observed differences can be attributed to different rates of lysogeny among the host classes, or other evolutionary pressures. We also test for significant differences in gene content among prophages, identifying genes that are preferentially lost or maintained in each class. We find that fast-growing hosts and pathogens have a greater fraction of full-length prophages, and our analysis predicts that induction rates are significantly reduced in slow-growing hosts and non-pathogenic hosts. Consistent with previous results, we find that several proteins involved in the packaging of new phage particles and lysis are preferentially lost in cryptic prophages. This article is part of the theme issue 'The secret lives of microbial mobile genetic elements'.

Regulation of prophage induction and lysogenization by phage communication systems

Many viruses cause both lytic infections, where they release viral particles, and dormant infections, where they await future opportunities to reactivate.1 The benefits of each transmission mode depend on the density of susceptible hosts in the environment.2-4 Some viruses infecting bacteria use molecular signaling to respond plastically to changes in host availability.5 These viruses produce a signal during lytic infection and regulate, based on the signal concentration in the environment, the probability with which they switch to causing dormant infections.5,6 We present an analytical framework to examine the adaptive significance of plasticity in viral life-history traits in fluctuating environments. Our model generalizes and extends previous theory7 and predicts that host density fluctuations should select for plasticity in entering lysogeny as well as virus reactivation once signal concentrations decline. Using Bacillus subtilis and its phage phi3T, we experimentally confirm the prediction that phages use signal to make informed decisions over prophage induction. We also demonstrate that lysogens produce signaling molecules and that signal is degraded by hosts in a density-dependent manner. Declining signal concentrations therefore potentially indicate the presence of uninfected hosts and trigger prophage induction. Finally, we find that conflict over the responses of lysogenization and reactivation to signal is resolved through the evolution of different response thresholds for each trait. Collectively, these findings deepen our understanding of the ways viruses use molecular communication to regulate their infection strategies, which can be leveraged to manipulate host and phage population dynamics in natural environments.

Revisiting the rules of life for viruses of microorganisms

Viruses that infect microbial hosts have traditionally been studied in laboratory settings with a focus on either obligate lysis or persistent lysogeny. In the environment, these infection archetypes are part of a continuum that spans antagonistic to beneficial modes. In this Review, we advance a framework to accommodate the context-dependent nature of virus-microorganism interactions in ecological communities by synthesizing knowledge from decades of virology research, eco-evolutionary theory and recent technological advances. We discuss that nuanced outcomes, rather than the extremes of the continuum, are particularly likely in natural communities given variability in abiotic factors, the availability of suboptimal hosts and the relevance of multitrophic partnerships. We revisit the 'rules of life' in terms of how long-term infections shape the fate of viruses and microbial cells, populations and ecosystems.

A thermal trade-off between viral production and degradation drives virus-phytoplankton population dynamics

Marine viruses interact with microbial hosts in dynamic environments shaped by variation in abiotic factors, including temperature. However, the impacts of temperature on viral infection of phytoplankton are not well understood. Here we coupled mathematical modelling with experiments to explore the effect of temperature on virus-phytoplankton interactions. Our model shows the negative consequences of high temperatures on infection and suggests a temperature-dependent threshold between viral production and degradation. Modelling long-term dynamics in environments with different average temperatures revealed the potential for long-term host-virus coexistence, epidemic free or habitat loss states. We generalised our model to variation in global sea surface temperatures corresponding to present and future seas and show that climate change may differentially influence virus-host dynamics depending on the virus-host pair. Temperature-dependent changes in the infectivity of virus particles may lead to shifts in virus-host habitats in warmer oceans, analogous to projected changes in the habitats of macro-, microorganisms and pathogens.

Repeated outbreaks drive the evolution of bacteriophage communication

Recently, a small-molecule communication mechanism was discovered in a range of Bacillus-infecting bacteriophages, which these temperate phages use to inform their lysis-lysogeny decision. We present a mathematical model of the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of such viral communication and show that a communication strategy in which phages use the lytic cycle early in an outbreak (when susceptible host cells are abundant) but switch to the lysogenic cycle later (when susceptible cells become scarce) is favoured over a bet-hedging strategy in which cells are lysogenised with constant probability. However, such phage communication can evolve only if phage-bacteria populations are regularly perturbed away from their equilibrium state, so that acute outbreaks of phage infections in pools of susceptible cells continue to occur. Our model then predicts the selection of phages that switch infection strategy when half of the available susceptible cells have been infected.

Bacteriophages, or phages for short, are viruses that need to infect bacteria to multiply. Once inside a cell, phages follow one of two strategies. They either start to replicate quickly, killing the host in the process; or they lay dormant, their genetic material slowly duplicating as the bacterium divides. These two strategies are respectively known as a ‘lytic’ or a ‘lysogenic’ infection.

In 2017, scientists discovered that, during infection, some phages produce a signalling molecule that influences the strategy other phages will use. Generally, a high concentration of the signal triggers lysogenic infection, while a low level prompts the lytic type. However, it is still unclear what advantages this communication system brings to the viruses, and how it has evolved.

Here, Doekes et al. used a mathematical model to explore how communication changes as phages infect a population of bacteria, rigorously testing earlier theories. The simulations showed that early in an outbreak, when only a few cells have yet been infected, the signalling molecule levels are low: lytic infections are therefore triggered and the phages quickly multiply, killing their hosts in the process. This is an advantageous strategy since many bacteria are available for the viruses to prey on. Later on, as more phages are being produced and available bacteria become few and far between, the levels of the signalling molecule increase. The viruses then switch to lysogenic infections, which allows them to survive dormant, inside their host.

Doekes et al. also discovered that this communication system only evolves if phages regularly cause large outbreaks in new, uninfected bacterial populations. From there, the model was able to predict that phages switch from lytic to lysogenic infections when about half the available bacteria have been infected.

As antibiotic resistance rises around the globe, phages are increasingly considered as a new way to fight off harmful bacteria. Deciphering the way these viruses communicate could help to understand how they could be harnessed to control the spread of bacteria.

Evolution along the parasitism-mutualism continuum determines the genetic repertoire of prophages

Integrated into their bacterial hosts' genomes, prophage sequences exhibit a wide diversity of length and gene content, from highly degraded cryptic sequences to intact, functional prophages that retain a full complement of lytic-function genes. We apply three approaches-bioinformatics, analytical modelling and computational simulation-to understand the diverse gene content of prophages. In the bioinformatics work, we examine the distributions of over 50,000 annotated prophage genes identified in 1384 prophage sequences, comparing the gene repertoires of intact and incomplete prophages. These data indicate that genes involved in the replication, packaging, and release of phage particles have been preferentially lost in incomplete prophages, while tail fiber, transposase and integrase genes are significantly enriched. Consistent with these results, our mathematical and computational approaches predict that genes involved in phage lytic function are preferentially lost, resulting in shorter prophages that often retain genes that benefit the host. Informed by these models, we offer novel hypotheses for the enrichment of integrase and transposase genes in cryptic prophages. Overall, we demonstrate that functional and cryptic prophages represent a diversity of genetic sequences that evolve along a parasitism-mutualism continuum.