Expressed mutational load increases toward the edge of a species' geographic range

Multi-generational fitness legacies of natural immigration: theoretical and empirical perspectives and opportunities

Natural dispersal between populations, and resulting immigration, influences population size and genetic variation and is therefore a key process driving reciprocal interactions between ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Here, population dynamic and evolutionary outcomes fundamentally depend not only on the relative fitnesses of natural immigrants and existing residents, but also on the fitness of their various descendants manifested in natural environments. Yet, the fitnesses of different sets of natural immigrants' descendants have rarely been explicitly or rigorously estimated or rationalised in the context of wild spatially structured populations. We therefore still have surprisingly limited capability to understand or predict the ultimate multi-generational impacts of natural immigration on population and evolutionary dynamics. Key theoretical frameworks that predict fitness outcomes of outcrossing between lineages have been developed and widely utilised in the contexts of agriculture and speciation research. These frameworks have also been applied in conservation genetics research to predict positive (widely termed "heterosis") and negative (widely termed "outbreeding depression") outcomes in the context of genetic rescue of highly inbred populations. However, these frameworks have rarely been utilised explicitly to guide analyses of multi-generational legacies of regular natural immigrants in the context of evolutionary ecology, precluding inferences on the basis of, and implications of, sub-population divergence. Accordingly, to facilitate translation of concepts and inspire new empirical efforts, we first review and synthesise key bodies of theory on multi-generational fitness outcomes, developed in the contexts of crosses between inbred lines and between different species. Such theory reveals how diverse fitness outcomes can be generated by common underlying mechanisms, depending on the genetic architecture of fitness, the forms of genotype-phenotype-fitness maps, and the relative roles of adaptive and non-adaptive mechanisms in population differentiation. Interestingly, such theory predicts particularly diverse fitness outcomes of crosses between weakly diverged lineages, constituting the parameter space where spatially structured populations lie. We then conduct a systematic literature review to assess the degree to which multi-generational outcomes of crosses between structured natural populations have actually been quantified. Our review shows a surprising paucity of empirical studies that quantify multi-generational fitness consequences of outcrossing resulting from natural immigration in the wild. Furthermore, studies undertaking experimental crosses among populations have used inconsistent methodologies, precluding quantitative or even qualitative overall conclusions. To initiate new progress, we outline how long-standing and recent methodological developments, including cutting-edge statistical and genomic tools, could be combined with field data sets to quantify the multi-generational fitness outcomes of crosses between residents and immigrants in nature. We thereby highlight key theoretical and empirical gaps that now need to be filled to further our understanding of dispersal-mediated drivers and constraints on eco-evolutionary dynamics arising in structured populations.

Genomic predictions of invasiveness and adaptability of the cotton bollworm in response to climate change

Agricultural pests cause enormous losses in annual agricultural production. Understanding the evolutionary responses and adaptive capacity of agricultural pests under climate change is crucial for establishing sustainable and environmentally friendly agricultural pest management. In this study, we integrate climate modeling and landscape genomics to investigate the distributional dynamics of the cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera) in the adaptation to local environments and resilience to future climate change. Notably, the predicted inhabitable areas with higher suitability for the cotton bollworm could be eight times larger in the coming decades. Climate change is one of the factors driving the dynamics of distribution and population differentiation of the cotton bollworm. Approximately 19,000 years ago, the cotton bollworm expanded from its ancestral African population, followed by gradual occupations of the European, Asian, Oceanian, and American continents. Furthermore, we identify seven subpopulations with high dispersal and adaptability which may have an increased risk of invasion potential. Additionally, a large number of candidate genes and SNPs linked to climatic adaptation were mapped. These findings could inform sustainable pest management strategies in the face of climate change, aiding future pest forecasting and management planning.

Is adaptation associated with long-term persistence beyond a geographic range limit?

Adaptation to new habitats might facilitate species' range shifts in response to climate change. In 2005, we transplanted experimental populations of coastal dune plant Camissoniopsis cheiranthifolia into 4 sites within and 1 site beyond its poleward range limit. Beyond-range transplants had high fitness but often delayed reproduction. To test for adaptation associated with experimental range expansion, we transplanted descendants from beyond- and within-range populations after 10 generations in situ into 2 sites within the range, 1 at the range edge, and 2 sites beyond the range. We expected to detect adaptation to beyond-range conditions due to substantial genetic variation within experimental populations and environmental variation among sites. However, individuals from beyond-range experimental populations were not fitter than those from within the range when planted at either beyond-range site, indicating no adaptation to the beyond-range site or beyond-range environments in general. Beyond-range descendants also did not suffer lower fitness within the range. Although reproduction was again delayed beyond the range, late reproduction was not favored more strongly beyond than within the range, and beyond-range descendants did not delay reproduction more than within-range descendants. Persistence in beyond-range environments may not require adaptation, which could allow a rapid response to climate change.

Serial founder effects slow range expansion in an invasive social insect

Invasive populations often experience founder effects: a loss of genetic diversity relative to the source population, due to a small number of founders. Even where these founder effects do not impact colonization success, theory predicts they might affect the rate at which invasive populations expand. This is because secondary founder effects are generated at advancing population edges, further reducing local genetic diversity and elevating genetic load. We show that in an expanding invasive population of the Asian honey bee (Apis cerana), genetic diversity is indeed lowest at range edges, including at the complementary sex determiner, csd, a locus that is homozygous-lethal. Consistent with lower local csd diversity, range edge colonies had lower brood viability than colonies in the range centre. Further, simulations of a newly-founded and expanding honey bee population corroborate the spatial patterns in mean colony fitness observed in our empirical data and show that such genetic load at range edges will slow the rate of population expansion.

Range expansion is both slower and more variable with rapid evolution across a spatial gradient in temperature

Rapid evolution in colonising populations can alter our ability to predict future range expansions. Recent theory suggests that the dynamics of replicate range expansions are less variable, and hence more predictable, with increased selection at the expanding range front. Here, we test whether selection from environmental gradients across space produces more consistent range expansion speeds, using the experimental evolution of replicate duckweed populations colonising landscapes with and without a temperature gradient. We found that the range expansion across a temperature gradient was slower on average, with range-front populations displaying higher population densities, and genetic signatures and trait changes consistent with directional selection. Despite this, we found that with a spatial gradient range expansion speed became more variable and less consistent among replicates over time. Our results therefore challenge current theory, highlighting that chance can still shape the genetic response to selection to influence our ability to predict range expansion speeds.

Density-Dependent Selection during Range Expansion Affects Expansion Load in Life History Traits

AbstractModels of range expansion have independently explored fitness consequences of life history trait evolution and increased rates of genetic drift-or "allele surfing"-during spatial spread, but no previous model has examined the interactions between these two processes. Here, using spatially explicit simulations, we explore an ecologically complex range expansion scenario that combines density-dependent selection with allele surfing to asses the genetic and fitness consequences of density-dependent selection on the evolution of life history traits. We demonstrate that density-dependent selection on the range edge acts differently depending on the life history trait and can either diminish or enhance allele surfing. Specifically, we show that selection at the range edge is always weaker at sites affecting competitive ability (K-selected traits) than at sites affecting birth rate (r-selected traits). We then link differences in the frequency of deleterious mutations to differences in the efficacy of selection and rate of mutation accumulation across distinct life history traits. Finally, we demonstrate that the observed fitness consequences of allele surfing depend on the population density in which expansion load is measured. Our work highlights the complex relationship between ecology and expressed genetic load, which will be important to consider when interpreting both experimental and field studies of range expansion.

Allele surfing causes maladaptation in a Pacific salmon of conservation concern

How various factors, including demography, recombination or genome duplication, may impact the efficacy of natural selection and the burden of deleterious mutations, is a central question in evolutionary biology and genetics. In this study, we show that key evolutionary processes, including variations in i) effective population size (Ne) ii) recombination rates and iii) chromosome inheritance, have influenced the genetic load and efficacy of selection in Coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch), a widely distributed salmonid species on the west coast of North America. Using whole genome resequencing data from 14 populations at different migratory distances from their southern glacial refugium, we found evidence supporting gene surfing, wherein reduced Ne at the postglacial recolonization front, leads to a decrease in the efficacy of selection and a surf of deleterious alleles in the northernmost populations. Furthermore, our results indicate that recombination rates play a prime role in shaping the load along the genome. Additionally, we identified variation in polyploidy as a contributing factor to within-genome variation of the load. Overall, our results align remarkably well with expectations under the nearly neutral theory of molecular evolution. We discuss the fundamental and applied implications of these findings for evolutionary and conservation genomics.

Demographic history and genomic consequences of 10,000 generations of isolation in a wild mammal

Increased human activities caused the isolation of populations in many species-often associated with genetic depletion and negative fitness effects. The effects of isolation are predicted by theory, but long-term data from natural populations are scarce. We show, with full genome sequences, that common voles (Microtus arvalis) in the Orkney archipelago have remained genetically isolated from conspecifics in continental Europe since their introduction by humans over 5,000 years ago. Modern Orkney vole populations are genetically highly differentiated from continental conspecifics as a result of genetic drift processes. Colonization likely started on the biggest Orkney island and vole populations on smaller islands were gradually split off, without signs of secondary admixture. Despite having large modern population sizes, Orkney voles are genetically depauperate and successive introductions to smaller islands resulted in further reduction of genetic diversity. We detected high levels of fixation of predicted deleterious variation compared with continental populations, particularly on smaller islands, yet the fitness effects realized in nature are unknown. Simulations showed that predominantly mildly deleterious mutations were fixed in populations, while highly deleterious mutations were purged early in the history of the Orkney population. Relaxation of selection overall due to benign environmental conditions on the islands and the effects of soft selection may have contributed to the repeated, successful establishment of Orkney voles despite potential fitness loss. Furthermore, the specific life history of these small mammals, resulting in relatively large population sizes, has probably been important for their long-term persistence in full isolation.

Deleterious Variation in Natural Populations and Implications for Conservation Genetics

Deleterious mutations decrease reproductive fitness and are ubiquitous in genomes. Given that many organisms face ongoing threats of extinction, there is interest in elucidating the impact of deleterious variation on extinction risk and optimizing management strategies accounting for such mutations. Quantifying deleterious variation and understanding the effects of population history on deleterious variation are complex endeavors because we do not know the strength of selection acting on each mutation. Further, the effect of demographic history on deleterious mutations depends on the strength of selection against the mutation and the degree of dominance. Here we clarify how deleterious variation can be quantified and studied in natural populations. We then discuss how different demographic factors, such as small population size, nonequilibrium population size changes, inbreeding, and gene flow, affect deleterious variation. Lastly, we provide guidance on studying deleterious variation in nonmodel populations of conservation concern.

Reduced pollinator service in small populations of Arabidopsis lyrata at its southern range limit

Even though a high fraction of angiosperm plants depends on animal pollinators for sexual reproduction, little is known how pollinator service changes across the ranges of plant species and whether it may contribute to range limits. Here, we tested for variation in pollinator service in the North American Arabidopsis lyrata from its southern to northern range edge and evaluated the driving mechanisms. We monitored insect pollinators using time-lapse cameras in 13 populations over two years and spotted 67 pollinating insect taxa, indicating the generalist nature of this plant-pollinator system. Pollinator service was highest at intermediate local flower densities and higher in large compared to small plant populations. Southern populations had generally smaller population sizes, and visitation rate and pollination ratio decreased with latitude. We also found that pollinator visitation was positively correlated with the richness of other flowering plants. This study indicates that plant populations at southern range edges receive only marginal pollinator service if they are small, and the effect of lower pollination is also detectable within populations across the range when the local flower density is low. Results, therefore, suggest the potential for an Allee effect in pollination that manifests itself across spatial scales.

Environment dependence of the expression of mutational load and species' range limits

Theoretical and empirical research on the causes of species' range limits suggest the contribution of several intrinsic and extrinsic factors, with potentially complex interactions among them. An intrinsic factor proposed by recent theory is mutational load increasing towards range edges because of genetic drift. Furthermore, environmental quality may decline towards range edges and enhance the expression of load. Here, we tested whether the expression of mutational load associated with range limits in the North American plant Arabidopsis lyrata was enhanced under stressful environmental conditions by comparing the performance of within- versus between-population crosses at common garden sites across the species' distribution and beyond. Heterosis, reflecting the expression of load, increased with heightened estimates of genomic load and with environmental stress caused by warming, but the interaction was not significant. We conclude that range-edge populations suffer from a twofold genetic Allee effect caused by increased mutational load and stress-dependent load linked to general heterozygote deficiency, but there is no synergistic effect between them.

A review on trade-offs at the warm and cold ends of geographical distributions

Species' range limits are ubiquitous. This suggests that the evolution of the ecological niche is constrained in general and at the edges of distributions in particular. While there may be many ecological and genetic reasons for this phenomenon, here we focus on the potential role of trade-offs. We performed a literature search on evidence for trade-offs associated with geographical or elevational range limits. The majority of trade-offs were reported as relevant at either the cold end of species' distribution (n = 19), the warm or dry end (n = 19) or both together (n = 14). One common type of trade-off involved accelerating growth or development (27%), often at the cost of small size. Another common type involved resistance to or tolerance of climatic extremes that occur at certain periods of the year (64%), often at the cost of small size or reduced growth. Trade-offs overlapped with some of the classic trade-offs reported in life-history evolution or thermal adaptation. The results highlight several general insights about species' niches and ranges, and we outline how future research should better integrate the ecological context and test for the presence of microevolutionary trade-offs. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)'.

Conservation genetics as a management tool: The five best-supported paradigms to assist the management of threatened species

About 50 y ago, Crow and Kimura [An Introduction to Population Genetics Theory (1970)] and Ohta and Kimura [Genet. Res. 22, 201-204 (1973)] laid the foundations of conservation genetics by predicting the relationship between population size and genetic marker diversity. This work sparked an enormous research effort investigating the importance of population dynamics, in particular small population size, for population mean performance, population viability, and evolutionary potential. In light of a recent perspective [J. C. Teixeira, C. D. Huber, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 118, 10 (2021)] that challenges some fundamental assumptions in conservation genetics, it is timely to summarize what the field has achieved, what robust patterns have emerged, and worthwhile future research directions. We consider theory and methodological breakthroughs that have helped management, and we outline some fundamental and applied challenges for conservation genetics.

Genomic and environmental influences on resilience in a cold-water fish near the edge of its range

Small, isolated populations present a challenge for conservation. The dueling effects of selection and drift in a limited pool of genetic diversity make the responses of small populations to environmental perturbations erratic and difficult to predict. This is particularly true at the edge of a species range, where populations often persist at the limits of their environmental tolerances. Populations of cisco, Coregonus artedi, in inland lakes have experienced numerous extirpations along the southern edge of their range in recent decades, which are thought to result from environmental degradation and loss of cold, well-oxygenated habitat as lakes warm. Yet, cisco extirpations do not show a clear latitudinal pattern, suggesting that local environmental factors and potentially local adaptation may influence resilience. Here, we used genomic tools to investigate the nature of this pattern of resilience. We used restriction site-associated DNA capture (Rapture) sequencing to survey genomic diversity and differentiation in southern inland lake cisco populations and compared the frequency of deleterious mutations that potentially influence fitness across lakes. We also examined haplotype diversity in a region of the major histocompatibility complex involved in stress and immune system response. We correlated these metrics to spatial and environmental factors including latitude, lake size, and measures of oxythermal habitat and found significant relationships between genetic metrics and broad and local factors. High levels of genetic differentiation among populations were punctuated by a phylogeographic break and residual patterns of isolation-by-distance. Although the prevalence of deleterious mutations and inbreeding coefficients was significantly correlated with latitude, neutral and non-neutral genetic diversity were most strongly correlated with lake surface area. Notably, differences among lakes in the availability of estimated oxythermal habitat left no clear population genomic signature. Our results shed light on the complex dynamics influencing these isolated populations and provide valuable information for their conservation.

The evolutionary genomics of species' responses to climate change

Climate change is a threat to biodiversity. One way that this threat manifests is through pronounced shifts in the geographical range of species over time. To predict these shifts, researchers have primarily used species distribution models. However, these models are based on assumptions of niche conservatism and do not consider evolutionary processes, potentially limiting their accuracy and value. To incorporate evolution into the prediction of species' responses to climate change, researchers have turned to landscape genomic data and examined information about local genetic adaptation using climate models. Although this is an important advancement, this approach currently does not include other evolutionary processes-such as gene flow, population dispersal and genomic load-that are critical for predicting the fate of species across the landscape. Here, we briefly review the current practices for the use of species distribution models and for incorporating local adaptation. We next discuss the rationale and theory for considering additional processes, reviewing how they can be incorporated into studies of species' responses to climate change. We summarize with a conceptual framework of how manifold layers of information can be combined to predict the potential response of specific populations to climate change. We illustrate all of the topics using an exemplar dataset and provide the source code as potential tutorials. This Perspective is intended to be a step towards a more comprehensive integration of population genomics with climate change science.

Adaptation across geographic ranges is consistent with strong selection in marginal climates and legacies of range expansion

Every species experiences limits to its geographic distribution. Some evolutionary models predict that populations at range edges are less well adapted to their local environments due to drift, expansion load, or swamping gene flow from the range interior. Alternatively, populations near range edges might be uniquely adapted to marginal environments. In this study, we use a database of transplant studies that quantify performance at broad geographic scales to test how local adaptation, site quality, and population quality change from spatial and climatic range centers toward edges. We find that populations from poleward edges perform relatively poorly, both on average across all sites (15% lower population quality) and when compared to other populations at home (31% relative fitness disadvantage), consistent with these populations harboring high genetic load. Populations from equatorial edges also perform poorly on average (18% lower population quality) but, in contrast, outperform foreign populations (16% relative fitness advantage), suggesting that populations from equatorial edges have strongly adapted to unique environments. Finally, we find that populations from sites that are thermally extreme relative to the species' niche demonstrate strong local adaptation, regardless of their geographic position. Our findings indicate that both nonadaptive processes and adaptive evolution contribute to variation in adaptation across species' ranges.

Demographic Processes Linked to Genetic Diversity and Positive Selection across a Species' Range

Demography determines the strength of genetic drift, which generally reduces genetic variation and the efficacy of selection. Here, we disentangled the importance of demographic processes at a local scale (census size and mating system) and at a species-range scale (old split between population clusters, recolonization after the last glaciation cycle, and admixture) in determining within-population genomic diversity and genomic signatures of positive selection. Analyses were based on re-sequence data from 52 populations of North American Arabidopsis lyrata collected across its entire distribution. The mating system and range dynamics since the last glaciation cycle explained around 60% of the variation in genomic diversity among populations and 52% of the variation in the signature of positive selection. Diversity was lowest in selfing compared with outcrossing populations and in areas further away from glacial refugia. In parallel, reduced positive selection was found in selfing populations and in populations with a longer route of postglacial range expansion. The signature of positive selection was also reduced in populations without admixture. We conclude that recent range expansion can have a profound influence on diversity in coding and non-coding DNA, similar in magnitude to the shift toward selfing. Distribution limits may in fact be caused by reduced effective population size and compromised positive selection in recently colonized parts of the range.