Differential adult survival at close seabird colonies: The importance of spatial foraging segregation and bycatch risk during the breeding season

Inter-colony variation in predation, mercury burden and adult survival in a declining seabird

Migratory species with disjunct and localized breeding distributions, including many colonial marine birds, pose challenges for management and conservation as their dynamics are shaped by both broad oceanographic changes and specific factors affecting individual breeding colonies. We compare six colonies of the declining Leach's storm-petrel, Hydrobates leucorhous, across their core range in Atlantic Canada using standard capture-mark-recapture methods to estimate annual survival of individually marked populations of breeding adults. Over the period analysed (5-20 years per colony; 2003-2022), mean annual survival varied among colonies (0.81-0.88) and annually (process error σ ranging from 0.01 to 0.09), though annual fluctuations were not synchronous across colonies. Two colonies with limited natural predation showed higher survival, and there was a decline in survival with increasing colony-specific total mercury burden. Our work shows that colony-specific pressures and regional contaminant burdens are potentially important contributors to current population declines, and highlights the importance of monitoring demographic rates at multiple sites for species that congregate at key life-history stages.

Marked differences in foraging area use and susceptibility to predation between two closely-related tropical seabirds

Ecological theory predicts that closely-related species must occupy different niches to coexist. How marine top predators achieve this during breeding, when they often gather in large multi-species colonies and are constrained to central-place foraging, has been mostly studied in productive temperate and polar oceans with abundant resources, but less so in poorer, tropical waters. Here, we track the foraging movements of two closely-related sympatric seabirds-the white-tailed and red-tailed tropicbirds Phaethon lepturus and P. rubricauda-breeding on Aldabra Atoll, Seychelles, to investigate potential mechanisms of niche segregation and shed light on their contrasting population trends. Combining data from GPS, immersion, depth and accelerometry loggers, we show that the two species have similar behaviour at sea, but are completely segregated spatially, with red-tailed tropicbirds flying further to feed and using different feeding areas than white-tailed tropicbirds. Using nest-based camera traps, we show that low breeding success of both species-which likely drives observed population declines-is caused by high nest predation. However, the two species are targeted by different predators, with native avian predators mainly targeting red-tailed tropicbird nests, and invasive rats raiding white-tailed tropicbird nests when they leave their eggs unattended. Our findings provide new insight into the foraging ecology of tropicbirds and have important conservation implications. The extensive range and spatial segregation highlight the importance of considering large-scale protection of waters around tropical seabird colonies, while the high level of nest predation provides evidence in support of rat eradication and investigating potential nest protection from native avian predators.

Machine learning as a successful approach for predicting complex spatio–temporal patterns in animal species abundance

Our aim was to identify an optimal analytical approach for accurately predicting complex spatio–temporal patterns in animal species distribution. We compared the performance of eight modelling techniques (generalized additive models, regression trees, bagged CART, k–nearest neighbors, stochastic gradient boosting, support vector machines, neural network, and random forest –enhanced form of bootstrap. We also performed extreme gradient boosting –an enhanced form of radiant boosting– to predict spatial patterns in abundance of migrating Balearic shearwaters based on data gathered within eBird. Derived from open–source datasets, proxies of frontal systems and ocean productivity domains that have been previously used to characterize the oceanographic habitats of seabirds were quantified, and then used as predictors in the models. The random forest model showed the best performance according to the parameters assessed (RMSE value and R2). The correlation between observed and predicted abundance with this model was also considerably high. This study shows that the combination of machine learning techniques and massive data provided by open data sources is a useful approach for identifying the long–term spatial–temporal distribution of species at regional spatial scales.

Sexual segregation in the foraging behaviour of a slightly dimorphic seabird: Influence of the environment and fishery activity

Sexual segregation in foraging strategies has been little studied in marine species with slight sexual size dimorphism (SSD), particularly regarding the role of environmental conditions and fishery activities. Sexual differences in fishery attendance are of particular concern because uneven mortality associated with bycatch may exacerbate impacts in wildlife populations. Using a seabird species with slight SSD, the Scopoli's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, we assessed sexual differences in foraging strategies and evaluated whether annual environmental conditions and fishery activity shaped such differences. We used a 4-year dataset combining bird GPS tracking, stable isotope analysis, the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO, as main proxy of the annual environmental conditions), and fishing vessel positioning data (Vessel Monitoring System, VMS) from the North Western Mediterranean, a region under intense fishery pressure. From 2012 to 2015, we tracked 635 foraging trips from 78 individuals. Females showed a greater foraging effort, a lower fishery attendance, a lower trophic level, and a narrower isotopic niche width than males. Moreover, in years with unfavourable environmental conditions, both sexes showed a lower fishery attendance and increased foraging effort compared to the year with most favourable conditions. Our results revealed that environmental conditions influence space use, feeding resources and fishery attendance differently in males and females, overall suggesting competitive exclusion of females by males from main foraging areas and feeding resources, particularly in unfavourable environmental conditions. We highlight the importance of evaluating sexual segregation under disparate environmental conditions, particularly in species with slight SSD, since segregation may pass otherwise unnoticed if only years with similar environmental conditions are considered. The higher fishery attendance of males likely explains the male-biased bycatch ratio for this species. Thus, inter-sexual differences in foraging strategies can lead to an unbalanced exposure to relevant threats and have implications for the conservation of long-lived species.

Breeding transients in capture-recapture modeling and their consequences for local population dynamics

Standard procedures for capture-mark-recapture modelling (CMR) for the study of animal demography include running goodness-of-fit tests on a general starting model. A frequent reason for poor model fit is heterogeneity in local survival among individuals captured for the first time and those already captured or seen on previous occasions. This deviation is technically termed a transience effect. In specific cases, simple, uni-state CMR modeling showing transients may allow researchers to assess the role of these transients on population dynamics. Transient individuals nearly always have a lower local survival probability, which may appear for a number of reasons. In most cases, transients arise due to permanent dispersal, higher mortality, or a combination of both. In the case of higher mortality, transients may be symptomatic of a cost of first reproduction. A few studies working at large spatial scales actually show that transients more often correspond to survival costs of first reproduction rather than to permanent dispersal, bolstering the interpretation of transience as a measure of costs of reproduction, since initial detections are often associated with first breeding attempts. Regardless of their cause, the loss of transients from a local population should lower population growth rate. We review almost 1000 papers using CMR modeling and find that almost 40% of studies fitting the searching criteria (N = 115) detected transients. Nevertheless, few researchers have considered the ecological or evolutionary meaning of the transient phenomenon. Only three studies from the reviewed papers considered transients to be a cost of first reproduction. We also analyze a long-term individual monitoring dataset (1988-2012) on a long-lived bird to quantify transients, and we use a life table response experiment (LTRE) to measure the consequences of transients at a population level. As expected, population growth rate decreased when the environment became harsher while the proportion of transients increased. LTRE analysis showed that population growth can be substantially affected by changes in traits that are variable under environmental stochasticity and deterministic perturbations, such as recruitment, fecundity of experienced individuals, and transient probabilities. This occurred even though sensitivities and elasticities of these parameters were much lower than those for adult survival. The proportion of transients also increased with the strength of density-dependence. These results have implications for ecological and evolutionary studies and may stimulate other researchers to explore the ecological processes behind the occurrence of transients in capture-recapture studies. In population models, the inclusion of a specific state for transients may help to make more reliable predictions for endangered and harvested species.

Maiden voyage into death: are fisheries affecting seabird juvenile survival during the first days at sea?

The study of juvenile migration behaviour of seabird species has been limited so far by the inability to track their movements during long time periods. Foraging and flying skills of young individuals are assumed to be inferior to those of adults, making them more vulnerable during long-distance migrations. In addition to natural oceanographic effects and intrinsic conditions, incidental seabird harvest by human fisheries is one of the main causes of worldwide seabird population declines, and it has been hypothesized that juveniles are particularly vulnerable to bycatch during their first weeks at sea after leaving the nest. We used solar-powered satellite tags to track the at-sea movements of adults and juveniles of Scopoli's shearwater (Calonectris diomedea) after the autumn departure from their breeding colony in Chafarinas Islands (southwestern Mediterranean Sea). Eighty per cent of juvenile tags stopped transmitting during the first week at sea, within 50 km of their natal colony, in an area with one of the highest concentrations of fishing activities in the Mediterranean Sea. All adult birds tagged and only 20% of juveniles migrated into the Atlantic and southwards along the coast of West Africa. The two age groups showed different habitat preferences, with juveniles travelling farther from the coast, in windier and less productive waters than adults. We conclude that Scopoli's shearwater juveniles are particularly vulnerable to mortality events, and we highlight that fisheries, along with differential age-related behaviour skills between adults and juveniles, are likely causes of this mortality. Overall, our study highlights the importance of conducting tracking studies during the first stages of juvenile migration.

Immature survival, fertility, and density dependence drive global population dynamics in a long-lived species

Disentangling the influence of demographic parameters and the role of density dependence on species' population dynamics is a challenge, especially when fractions of the population are unobservable. Additionally, due to the difficulty of gathering data at large spatial scales, most studies ignore the global dynamic of a species, which would integrate local heterogeneity dynamics and remove the noise of dispersal. We developed an integrated population model (IPM) at a global scale to disentangle the main demographic drivers of population dynamics in a long-lived species. We used 28 yr of Audouin's Gull demographic data encompassing 69 local patches (comprising 90% of the world population). Importantly, we took into account the unobservable fraction of non-breeders and also assessed the strength of density dependence for this fraction of the population. As predicted by life histories of long-lived organisms, temporal random variation in survival was highest for immature individuals (1.326, 95% credible interval [CRI] 1.290-1.940) and lowest for adults (0.499, 95% CRI 0.487-0.720). Large temporal fluctuations in the probability of taking a reproductive sabbatical would partly explain the consistency in adult survival, with individuals most likely refraining from breeding when environmental conditions were harsh. Immature survival and fertility were the main drivers of population dynamics during the study period (r²  = 0.83, 0.77-0.87 and 0.73, 0.63-0.79, respectively). We found strong evidence of density dependence, not only due to the number of breeders (r²  = -0.34, -0.43 to -0.24) but also due to individuals on sabbatical (r²  = -0.18, -0.33 to -0.01). From a conservation point of view, the species shows a 5% annual global decrease during the last 10 years, and we propose an update of its conservation status. Even though population dynamics of long-lived organisms are very sensitive to changes in adult survival, we show here that, in the absence of strong environmental perturbations affecting this vital rate, fluctuations in population density are mainly driven by variations in survival of immature individuals and fertility. Integrated models based on long-term monitoring at a global scale may enhance our ecological and evolutionary understanding of how demographic drivers influence population dynamics.