Revealing the spatiotemporal patterns of water vapor and its link to North Atlantic Oscillation over Greenland using GPS and ERA5 data

Precipitation plays an important role in the interannual mass variations of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and is highly influenced by atmospheric circulation change. The relationship between precipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been revealed by many studies, but the role of water vapor transportation in the NAO-precipitation relationship was rarely investigated. Therefore, to fill the knowledge gap of how water vapor changes and responds to NAO in space and time, we applied Multichannel Singular Spectral Analysis (MSSA) to the Global Positioning System (GPS) and the fifth-generation reanalysis dataset of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ERA5) Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) data to extract the interannual PWV signals in Greenland. Results show that the interannual PWV signals overall increased in 2008-2011, decreased in 2011-2015, and increased in 2015-2021. The amplitudes of the interannual signals derived from both the GPS PWV and ERA5 basin-averaged PWV exhibited an overall southwest-northeast decreasing gradient. We also found anticorrelation between the interannual PWV signals and the NAO signal over Greenland but the correlation coefficients are not statistically significant, and the correlation coefficients in most cases were less than -0.65, indicating that positive (negative) NAO phase decreased (increased) the water vapor content. The Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) results illustrated that the interannual signals derived from both the GPS site-dependent and the ERA5 basin-averaged PWV had similar dominant frequencies to that of the NAO signal, reinforcing their correlations. This study reveals the spatiotemporal pattern of the interannual water vapor and its linkage to the NAO, providing a new perspective for understanding the climate change on Greenland.

Climatic effects on the synchrony and stability of temperate headwater invertebrates over four decades

Important clues about the ecological effects of climate change can arise from understanding the influence of other Earth-system processes on ecosystem dynamics but few studies span the inter-decadal timescales required. We, therefore, examined how variation in annual weather patterns associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over four decades was linked to synchrony and stability in a metacommunity of stream invertebrates across multiple, contrasting headwaters in central Wales (UK). Prolonged warmer and wetter conditions during positive NAO winters appeared to synchronize variations in population and community composition among and within streams thereby reducing stability across levels of ecological organization. This climatically mediated synchronization occurred in all streams irrespective of acid-base status and land use, but was weaker where invertebrate communities were more functionally diverse. Wavelet linear models indicated that variation in the NAO explained up to 50% of overall synchrony in species abundances at a timescale of 4-6 years. The NAO appeared to affect ecological dynamics through local variations in temperature, precipitation and discharge, but increasing hydrochemical variability within sites during wetter winters might have contributed. Our findings illustrate how large-scale climatic fluctuations generated over the North Atlantic can affect population persistence and dynamics in inland freshwater ecosystems in ways that transcend local catchment character. Protecting and restoring functional diversity in stream communities might increase their stability against warmer, wetter conditions that are analogues of ongoing climate change. Catchment management could also dampen impacts and provide options for climate change adaptation.

Climate forcing on estuarine zooplanktonic production

Estuaries are among the most valuable aquatic systems in the world and resolving how there are impacted by climate change is fundamental to their management under global change scenarios. In this study, a ten-year time series (2003-2013) of zooplankton in an estuarine area (Mondego estuary, Portugal) is used to determine the impact of climate variability on estuarine zooplanktonic secondary production. For that, a trend analysis of seasonal zooplankton production was applied and their link with large-scale, regional, and local environment was tested by Distance-based multivariate multiple regression (DistLM). The annual integrated production of zooplankton varied between 34.27 mg C m-3 (2003) and 179.804 mg C m-3 (2013). Results showed that estuarine and marine zooplanktonic production increased in the estuary, mostly during summer/autumn and spring/summer, respectively. Local and regional environmental forcing drove copepod production in the estuary, with large-scale regime shifts affecting both directly and indirectly.

Influence of atmospheric patterns on soil moisture dynamics in Europe

Soil moisture (SM) plays a key role in the water cycle, and its variability is intimately linked to coupled land-atmosphere processes. Having a good knowledge of soil-atmospheric interactions is thus essential to assess the impact of climate change on SM; however, many aspects of how water and energy exchanges occur in the soil-atmosphere continuum are still uncertain. In particular, it is known that atmospheric circulation patterns influence climate conditions over Europe but their impact on SM has only rarely been studied. This study provides insight into how atmospheric patterns influence soil moisture dynamics in Europe, where an increase in temperature and agricultural droughts are expected as an impact of climate change. To do so, we analysed the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on European SM, including lagged responses, for the period 1991-2020 at a monthly scale. Two methods have been used: a lagged correlation analysis and a more sophisticated causality approach using the PCMCI (PC method combined with the momentary conditional independence (MCI) test). SM series from two different databases were considered: the hydrological model LISFLOOD and the reanalysis dataset ERA5-Land. The results from the correlation analysis showed a significant, predominantly negative relationships of SM with NAO and AO over almost all of Europe and no significant relation with ENSO. With the causality analysis, similar patterns are obtained for NAO and AO; however, the PCMCI analysis revealed clear patterns of ENSO influencing SM with a delayed response of one-to-two months in central and northwest Europe. The results obtained in this work highlight that there are causal relations between the main modes of interannual climate oscillations and SM variations in Europe, underlining the importance of accounting for global atmospheric circulations to study current changes in regional soil water-related processes.

Climate oscillations drive millennial-scale changes in seabird colony size

Seabird population size is intimately linked to the physical, chemical, and biological processes of the oceans. Yet, the overall effects of long-term changes in ocean dynamics on seabird colonies are difficult to quantify. Here, we used dated lake sediments to reconstruct ~10,000-years of seabird dynamics in the Northwest Atlantic to determine the influences of Holocene-scale climatic oscillations on colony size. On Baccalieu Island (Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada)-where the world's largest colony of Leach's storm-petrel (Hydrobates leucorhous Vieillot 1818) currently breeds-our data track seabird colony growth in response to warming during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (ca. 9000 to 6000 BP). From ca. 5200 BP to the onset of the Little Ice Age (ca. 550 BP), changes in colony size were correlated to variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). By contrasting the seabird trends from Baccalieu Island to millennial-scale changes of storm-petrel populations from Grand Colombier Island (an island in the Northwest Atlantic that is subjected a to different ocean climate), we infer that changes in NAO influenced the ocean circulation, which translated into, among many things, changes in pycnocline depth across the Northwest Atlantic basin where the storm-petrels feed. We hypothesize that the depth of the pycnocline is likely a strong bottom-up control on surface-feeding storm-petrels through its influence on prey accessibility. Since the Little Ice Age (LIA), the effects of ocean dynamics on seabird colony size have been altered by anthropogenic impacts. Subsequently, the colony on Baccalieu Island grew at an unprecedented rate to become the world's largest resulting from favorable conditions linked to climate warming, increased vegetation (thereby nesting habitat), and attraction of recruits from other colonies that are now in decline. We show that although ocean dynamics were an important driver of seabird colony dynamics, its recent influence has been modified by human interference.

Effect of environmental variables on incidence of tick-borne encephalitis, leptospirosis and tularaemia

OBJECTIVES

Potential effect of three environmental variables (population density of rodents, global weather in the form of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and acorn crop) on human morbidity rate of three zoonoses: tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), leptospirosis and tularaemia were analysed in the Czech Republic for the period 1970-1990.

METHODS

The Pearson's correlation analysis was used.

RESULTS

The correlation analysis revealed that the significant factor for explaining annual morbidity rates of these zoonoses was the abundance of common voles (Microtus arvalis) in the current year (for leptospirosis) or in the previous calendar year (for TBE and tularaemia).

CONCLUSIONS

The two other environmental variables tested (NAO index and acorn production) do not seem to play a significant role in these zoonoses in Central Europe.

Regime shift tipping point in hare population collapse associated with climatic and agricultural change during the very early 20th century

Animal populations at northern latitudes may have cyclical dynamics that are degraded by climate change leading to trophic cascade. Hare populations at more southerly latitudes are characterized by dramatic declines in abundance associated with agricultural intensification. We focus on the impact of historical climatic and agricultural change on a mid-latitude population of mountain hares, Lepus timidus hibernicus. Using game bag records from multiple sites throughout Ireland, the hare population index exhibited a distinct regime shift. Contrary to expectations, there was a dynamical structure typical of northern latitude hare populations from 1853 to 1908, during which numbers were stable but cyclic with a periodicity of 8 years. This regime was replaced by dynamics more typical of southern latitude hare populations from 1909 to 1970, in which cycles were lost and numbers declined dramatically. Destabilization of the autumn North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) led to the collapse of similar cycles in the hare population, coincident with the onset of agricultural intensification (a shift from small-to-large farms) in the first half of the 20th century. Similar, but more recent regime shifts have been observed in Arctic ecosystems and attributed to anthropogenic climate change. The present study suggests such shifts may have occurred at lower latitudes more than a century ago during the very early 20th century. It seems likely that similar tipping points in the population collapse of other farmland species may have occurred similarly early but went undocumented. As northern systems are increasingly impacted by climate change and probable expansion of agriculture, the interaction of these processes is likely to disrupt the pulsed flow of resources from cyclic populations impacting ecosystem function.

The delayed effect of cooling reinforced the NAO-plague connection in pre-industrial Europe

Previous studies on the connection between climate and plague were mostly conducted without considering the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulations and long-term historical observations. The current study seeks to reveal the sophisticated role of climatic control on plague by investigating the combined effect of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and temperature on plague outbreaks in Europe from 1347 to 1760 CE. Moving correlation analysis is applied to explore the non-linear relationship between NAO and plague transmission over time. Also, we apply the cross-correlation function to identify the role of temperature in mediating the NAO-plague connection and the lead-lag relationship in between. Our statistical results show that the pathway from climate change to plague incidence is distinctive in its spatial, temporal, and non-linear patterns. The multi-decadal temperature change exerted a 15-22 years lagged impact on the NAO-plague correlation in different European regions. The NAO-plague correlation in Atlantic-Central Europe primarily remained positive, while the correlation in Mediterranean Europe switched between positive and negative alternately. The modulating effect of temperature over the NAO-plague correlation increases exponentially with the magnitude of the temperature anomaly, but the effect is negligible between 0.3 and -0.3 °C anomaly. Our findings show that a lagged influence from the temperature extremes dominantly controls the correlation between NAO and plague incidence. A forecast from our study suggests that large-scale plague outbreaks are unlikely to happen in Europe if NAO remains at its current positive phase during the earth's future warming.

Interrelated impacts of climate and land-use change on a widespread waterbird

Together climate and land-use change play a crucial role in determining species distribution and abundance, but measuring the simultaneous impacts of these processes on current and future population trajectories is challenging due to time lags, interactive effects and data limitations. Most approaches that relate multiple global change drivers to population changes have been based on occurrence or count data alone. We leveraged three long-term (1995-2019) datasets to develop a coupled integrated population model-Bayesian population viability analysis (IPM-BPVA) to project future survival and reproductive success for common loons Gavia immer in northern Wisconsin, USA, by explicitly linking vital rates to changes in climate and land use. The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a broad-scale climate index, immediately preceding the breeding season and annual changes in developed land cover within breeding areas both had strongly negative influences on adult survival. Local summer rainfall was negatively related to fecundity, though this relationship was mediated by a lagged interaction with the winter NAO, suggesting a compensatory population-level response to climate variability. We compared population viability under 12 future scenarios of annual land-use change, precipitation and NAO conditions. Under all scenarios, the loon population was expected to decline, yet the steepest declines were projected under positive NAO trends, as anticipated with ongoing climate change. Thus, loons breeding in the northern United States are likely to remain affected by climatic processes occurring thousands of miles away in the North Atlantic during the non-breeding period of the annual cycle. Our results reveal that climate and land-use changes are differentially contributing to loon population declines along the southern edge of their breeding range and will continue to do so despite natural compensatory responses. We also demonstrate that concurrent analysis of multiple data types facilitates deeper understanding of the ecological implications of anthropogenic-induced change occurring at multiple spatial scales. Our modelling approach can be used to project demographic responses of populations to varying environmental conditions while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, an increasingly pressing need in the face of unprecedented global change.

Did anomalous atmospheric circulation favor the spread of COVID-19 in Europe?

The current pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is having negative health, social and economic consequences worldwide. In Europe, the pandemic started to develop strongly at the end of February and beginning of March 2020. Subsequently, it spread over the continent, with special virulence in northern Italy and inland Spain. In this study we show that an unusual persistent anticyclonic situation prevailing in southwestern Europe during February 2020 (i.e. anomalously strong positive phase of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations) could have resulted in favorable conditions, e.g., in terms of air temperature and humidity among other factors, in Italy and Spain for a quicker spread of the virus compared with the rest of the European countries. It seems plausible that the strong atmospheric stability and associated dry conditions that dominated in these regions may have favored the virus propagation, both outdoors and especially indoors, by short-range droplet and aerosol (airborne) transmission, or/and by changing social contact patterns. Later recent atmospheric circulation conditions in Europe (July 2020) and the U.S. (October 2020) seem to support our hypothesis, although further research is needed in order to evaluate other confounding variables. Interestingly, the atmospheric conditions during the Spanish flu pandemic in 1918 seem to have resembled at some stage with the current COVID-19 pandemic.

Did anomalous atmospheric circulation favor the spread of COVID-19 in Europe?

The current pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is having negative health, social and economic consequences worldwide. In Europe, the pandemic started to develop strongly at the end of February and beginning of March 2020. Subsequently, it spread over the continent, with special virulence in northern Italy and inland Spain. In this study we show that an unusual persistent anticyclonic situation prevailing in southwestern Europe during February 2020 (i.e. anomalously strong positive phase of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations) could have resulted in favorable conditions, e.g., in terms of air temperature and humidity among other factors, in Italy and Spain for a quicker spread of the virus compared with the rest of the European countries. It seems plausible that the strong atmospheric stability and associated dry conditions that dominated in these regions may have favored the virus propagation, both outdoors and especially indoors, by short-range droplet and aerosol (airborne) transmission, or/and by changing social contact patterns. Later recent atmospheric circulation conditions in Europe (July 2020) and the U.S. (October 2020) seem to support our hypothesis, although further research is needed in order to evaluate other confounding variables. Interestingly, the atmospheric conditions during the Spanish flu pandemic in 1918 seem to have resembled at some stage with the current COVID-19 pandemic.

Sexual segregation in the foraging behaviour of a slightly dimorphic seabird: Influence of the environment and fishery activity

Sexual segregation in foraging strategies has been little studied in marine species with slight sexual size dimorphism (SSD), particularly regarding the role of environmental conditions and fishery activities. Sexual differences in fishery attendance are of particular concern because uneven mortality associated with bycatch may exacerbate impacts in wildlife populations. Using a seabird species with slight SSD, the Scopoli's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, we assessed sexual differences in foraging strategies and evaluated whether annual environmental conditions and fishery activity shaped such differences. We used a 4-year dataset combining bird GPS tracking, stable isotope analysis, the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO, as main proxy of the annual environmental conditions), and fishing vessel positioning data (Vessel Monitoring System, VMS) from the North Western Mediterranean, a region under intense fishery pressure. From 2012 to 2015, we tracked 635 foraging trips from 78 individuals. Females showed a greater foraging effort, a lower fishery attendance, a lower trophic level, and a narrower isotopic niche width than males. Moreover, in years with unfavourable environmental conditions, both sexes showed a lower fishery attendance and increased foraging effort compared to the year with most favourable conditions. Our results revealed that environmental conditions influence space use, feeding resources and fishery attendance differently in males and females, overall suggesting competitive exclusion of females by males from main foraging areas and feeding resources, particularly in unfavourable environmental conditions. We highlight the importance of evaluating sexual segregation under disparate environmental conditions, particularly in species with slight SSD, since segregation may pass otherwise unnoticed if only years with similar environmental conditions are considered. The higher fishery attendance of males likely explains the male-biased bycatch ratio for this species. Thus, inter-sexual differences in foraging strategies can lead to an unbalanced exposure to relevant threats and have implications for the conservation of long-lived species.

Spatial and temporal shift in the factors affecting the population dynamics of Calanus copepods in the North Sea

The swap in abundance between two Calanus species in the North Sea during the 1980s constitutes a quintessential example of regime shift, with important ecosystemic and economic repercussions because these copepods constitute a major component of the diet of larval and juvenile cods. It is hypothesized that this transition was driven by gradual changes in primary productivity, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and sea surface temperatures (SST), and yet how these factors contribute to the population dynamics of these two species and the overall regime shift remains unclear. Here, we combine a highly resolved and spatially structured longitudinal dataset with population dynamics theory-based models to obtain a thorough and more detailed description of populations' responses to the regime shift observed in the North Sea. Our analyses highlight that this transition exhibits a clear spatial structure and involved a decoupling between the dynamics of Calanus finmarchicus and the NAO in western regions and between Calanus helgolandicus and SST in the eastern regions of the North Sea. Consequently, the observed switch in abundance between these species reflects the interaction between species-specific attributes, a well-defined spatial structure with a marked east-west axis and a decoupling between the ecological drivers and Calanus population dynamics following the shift. Succinctly, we suspect that higher water temperatures have favored C. helgolandicus and resulted in restrictive conditions for C. finmarchicus, eventually overshadowing the effects of NAO detected in historical records. Overall, our study illustrates how population dynamics theory can be successfully employed to disentangle the complex and multifactorial nature of a regime shift in response to gradually changing environmental conditions.

Zooplankton dynamics in a changing environment: A 13-year survey in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea

Dynamics of the subsurface (2-3 m) mesozooplankton (i.e., > 200 μm) in the Bay of Calvi (Corsica, France) were explored, combining time series (2004-2016) of 14 zooplankton groups, wind gusts, water temperature, nitrate and chlorophyll-a. Zooplankton data was obtained through image analysis. While contrasted group-specific seasonal patterns were observed, the most productive zooplankton annual event occurred in April (spring peak), concentrating on average 25% of the total annual abundance. A "typical" year was defined based on the annual succession of different community states, highlighting particular years (2007, 2015 and 2012) mainly characterized by weak spring peak. Environmental influences on the interannual variability of zooplankton were explored and while relationship between chlorophyll-a and zooplankton abundance was unclear, the availability of nutrients (December-March), potentially mediated via the wind regime (October-January) seemed to be essential to the occurrence of the spring peak. Additionally, we observed an influence of temperature, with winter thermal thresholds (between 12.1 °C and 13.4 °C) conditioning the spring peak. Also, the occurrence of lower annual abundances after 2010 was synchronous with the sharp increase of seawater warming trend, especially regarding winter temperature (0.30 °C.year^-1). Finally, winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was found to be correlated to both winter water temperature and spring peak abundance, which suggests large-scale processes to impact regional zooplankton community.

Early atmospheric contamination on the top of the Himalayas since the onset of the European Industrial Revolution

Because few ice core records from the Himalayas exist, understanding of the onset and timing of the human impact on the atmosphere of the "roof of the world" remains poorly constrained. We report a continuous 500-y trace metal ice core record from the Dasuopu glacier (7,200 m, central Himalayas), the highest drilling site on Earth. We show that an early contamination from toxic trace metals, particularly Cd, Cr, Mo, Ni, Sb, and Zn, emerged at high elevation in the Himalayas at the onset of the European Industrial Revolution (∼1780 AD). This was amplified by the intensification of the snow accumulation (+50% at Dasuopu) likely linked to the meridional displacement of the winter westerlies from 1810 until 1880 AD. During this period, the flux and crustal enrichment factors of the toxic trace metals were augmented by factors of 2 to 4 and 2 to 6, respectively. We suggest this contamination was the consequence of the long-range transport and wet deposition of fly ash from the combustion of coal (likely from Western Europe where it was almost entirely produced and used during the 19th century) with a possible contribution from the synchronous increase in biomass burning emissions from deforestation in the Northern Hemisphere. The snow accumulation decreased and dry winters were reestablished in Dasuopu after 1880 AD when lower than expected toxic metal levels were recorded. This indicates that contamination on the top of the Himalayas depended primarily on multidecadal changes in atmospheric circulation and secondarily on variations in emission sources during the last 200 y.

Return of the moth: rethinking the effect of climate on insect outbreaks

The sudden interruption of recurring larch budmoth (LBM; Zeiraphera diniana or griseana Gn.) outbreaks across the European Alps after 1982 was surprising, because populations had regularly oscillated every 8–9 years for the past 1200 years or more. Although ecophysiological evidence was limited and underlying processes remained uncertain, climate change has been indicated as a possible driver of this disruption. An unexpected, recent return of LBM population peaks in 2017 and 2018 provides insight into this insect’s climate sensitivity. Here, we combine meteorological and dendrochronological data to explore the influence of temperature variation and atmospheric circulation on cyclic LBM outbreaks since the early 1950s. Anomalous cold European winters, associated with a persistent negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, coincide with four consecutive epidemics between 1953 and 1982, and any of three warming-induced mechanisms could explain the system’s failure thereafter: (1) high egg mortality, (2) asynchrony between egg hatch and foliage growth, and (3) upward shifts of outbreak epicentres. In demonstrating that LBM populations continued to oscillate every 8–9 years at sub-outbreak levels, this study emphasizes the relevance of winter temperatures on trophic interactions between insects and their host trees, as well as the importance of separating natural from anthropogenic climate forcing on population behaviour.

Cumulative weather effects can impact across the whole life cycle

Predicting how species will be affected by future climatic change requires the underlying environmental drivers to be identified. As vital rates vary over the lifecycle, structured population models derived from statistical environment-demography relationships are often used to inform such predictions. Environmental drivers are typically identified independently for different vital rates and demographic classes. However, these rates often exhibit positive temporal covariance, suggesting that vital rates respond to common environmental drivers. Additionally, models often only incorporate average weather conditions during a single, a priori chosen time window (e.g. monthly means). Mismatches between these windows and the period when the vital rates are sensitive to variation in climate decrease the predictive performance of such approaches. We used a demographic structural equation model (SEM) to demonstrate that a single axis of environmental variation drives the majority of the (co)variation in survival, reproduction, and twinning across six age-sex classes in a Soay sheep population. This axis provides a simple target for the complex task of identifying the drivers of vital rate variation. We used functional linear models (FLMs) to determine the critical windows of three local climatic drivers, allowing the magnitude and direction of the climate effects to differ over time. Previously unidentified lagged climatic effects were detected in this well-studied population. The FLMs had a better predictive performance than selecting a critical window a priori, but not than a large-scale climate index. Positive covariance amongst vital rates and temporal variation in the effects of environmental drivers are common, suggesting our SEM-FLM approach is a widely applicable tool for exploring the joint responses of vital rates to environmental change.

Climate-driven changes in macrobenthic communities in the Mediterranean Sea: A 10-year study in the Bay of Banyuls-sur-Mer

Marine ecosystems worldwide are affected by both natural variation and human activities; to disentangle and understand their individual role in influencing the macrobenthic community composition is challenging. The relationship between interannual variability in atmospheric circulation, dictated by the climatic oscillation indices, and the benthic macrofauna composition was assessed at four sampling sites located in the Bay of Banyuls-sur-Mer (NW Mediterranean Sea). Between 2004 and 2013, these sites were sampled annually during autumn/winter and analyzed for sediment grain-size and benthic macrofauna composition (species richness, abundance, and biomass). Temporal changes in these descriptors were correlated with two climatic indices (NAO and WeMO indices) and a set of environmental parameters integrated over three different time periods (i.e., whole year, springtime, and wintertime). Our results confirm the occurrence of major temporal changes in the composition of macrobenthic communities within the Gulf of Lions. More specifically, the results indicate that (a) the WeMO appears to be more closely related to benthic macrofauna composition in the Bay of Banyuls-sur-Mer than the NAO, (b) winter is a better integration period than spring or the whole year as a proxy for community composition changes, and (c) Rhône River water flow is likely involved in the control of benthic macrofauna composition in the whole Gulf of Lions. The present study highlights the importance of WeMO as a regional proxy, which can be used to evaluate changes in benthic macrofauna linked to climatic variability.

Disentangling the relative role of climate change on tree growth in an extreme Mediterranean environment

Climate change can impair ecosystem functions and services in extensive dry forests worldwide. However, attribution of climate change impacts on tree growth and forest productivity is challenging due to multiple inter-annual patterns of climatic variability associated with atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Moreover, growth responses to rising atmospheric CO₂, namely carbon fertilization, as well as size ontogenetic changes can obscure the climate change signature as well. Here we apply Structural Equation Models (SEM) to investigate the relative role of climate change on tree growth in an extreme Mediterranean environment (i.e., extreme in terms of the combination of sandy-unconsolidated soils and climatic aridity). Specifically, we analyzed potential direct and indirect pathways by which different sources of climatic variability (i.e. warming and precipitation trends, the North Atlantic Oscillation, [NAO]; the Mediterranean Oscillation, [MOI]; the Atlantic Mediterranean Oscillation, [AMO]) affect aridity through their control on local climate (in terms of mean annual temperature and total annual precipitation), and subsequently tree productivity, in terms of basal area increments (BAI). Our results support the predominant role of Diameter at Breast Height (DHB) as the main growth driver. In terms of climate, NAO and AMO are the most important drivers of tree growth through their control of aridity (via effects of precipitation and temperature, respectively). Furthermore and contrary to current expectations, our findings also support a net positive role of climate warming on growth over the last 50 years and suggest that impacts of climate warming should be evaluated considering multi-annual and multi-decadal periods of local climate defined by atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the North Atlantic.

Aquatic versus Terrestrial Insects: Real or Presumed Differences in Population Dynamics?

The study of insect populations is dominated by research on terrestrial insects. Are aquatic insect populations different or are they just presumed to be different? We explore the evidence across several topics. (1) Populations of terrestrial herbivorous insects are constrained most often by enemies, whereas aquatic herbivorous insects are constrained more by food supplies, a real difference related to the different plants that dominate in each ecosystem. (2) Population outbreaks are presumed not to occur in aquatic insects. We report three examples of cyclical patterns; there may be more. (3) Aquatic insects, like terrestrial insects, show strong oviposition site selection even though they oviposit on surfaces that are not necessarily food for their larvae. A novel outcome is that density of oviposition habitat can determine larval densities. (4) Aquatic habitats are often largely 1-dimensional shapes and this is presumed to influence dispersal. In rivers, drift by insects is presumed to create downstream dispersal that has to be countered by upstream flight by adults. This idea has persisted for decades but supporting evidence is scarce. Few researchers are currently working on the dynamics of aquatic insect populations; there is scope for many more studies and potentially enlightening contrasts with terrestrial insects.

Modelling serial clustering and inter-annual variability of European winter windstorms based on large-scale drivers

Winter windstorms are known to be among the most dangerous and loss intensive natural hazards in Europe. In order to gain a better understanding of their variability and driving mechanisms, this study analyses the temporal variability which is often referred to as serial or seasonal clustering. This is realized by developing a statistical model relating the winter storm counts to known teleconnection patterns affecting European weather and climate conditions (e.g., North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO], Scandinavian pattern [SCA], etc.). The statistical model is developed via a stepwise Poisson regression approach that is applied to windstorm counts and large-scale indices retrieved from the ERA-20C reanalysis. Significant large-scale drivers accountable for the inter-annual variability of storms for several European regions are identified and compared. In addition to the SCA and the NAO which are found to be the essential drivers for most areas within the European domain, other teleconnections (e.g., East Atlantic pattern) are found to be more significant for the inter-annual variability in certain regions. Furthermore, the statistical model allows an estimation of the expected number of storms per winter season and also whether a season has the characteristic of being what we define an active or inactive season. The statistical model reveals high skill particularly over British Isles and central Europe; however, even for regions with less frequent storm events (e.g., southern and eastern Europe) the model shows adequate positive skill. This feature could be of specific interest for the actuarial sector.

Effects of hurricanes and climate oscillations on annual variation in reproduction in wet forest, Puerto Rico

Interannual changes in global climate and weather disturbances may influence reproduction in tropical forests. Phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to produce interannual variation in reproduction, as do severe storms such as hurricanes. Using stationary trap-based phenology data collected fortnightly from 1993 to 2014 from a hurricane-affected (1989 Hugo, 1998 Georges) subtropical wet forest in northeastern Puerto Rico, we conducted a time series analysis of flowering and seed production. We addressed (1) the degree to which interannual variation in flower and seed production was influenced by global climate drivers and time since hurricane disturbance, and (2) how long-term trends in reproduction varied with plant lifeform. The seasonally de-trended number of species in flower fluctuated over time while the number of species producing seed exhibited a declining trend, one that was particularly evident during the second half of the study period. Lagged El Niño indices and time series hurricane disturbance jointly influenced the trends in numbers of flowering and fruiting species, suggesting complex global influences on tropical forest reproduction with variable periodicities. Lag times affecting flowering tended to be longer than those affecting fruiting. Long-term patterns of reproduction in individual lifeforms paralleled the community-wide patterns, with most groups of lifeform exhibiting a long-term decline in seed but not flower production. Exceptions were found for hemiepiphytes, small trees, and lianas whose seed reproduction increased and then declined over time. There was no long-term increase in flower production as reported in other Neotropical sites.

North Atlantic Oscillation drives the annual occurrence of an isolated, peripheral population of the brown seaweed Fucus guiryi in the Western Mediterranean Sea

The canopy-forming, intertidal brown (Phaeophyceae) seaweed Fucus guiryi is distributed along the cold-temperate and warm-temperate coasts of Europe and North Africa. Curiously, an isolated population develops at Punta Calaburras (Alboran Sea, Western Mediterranean) but thalli are not present in midsummer every year, unlike the closest (ca. 80 km), perennial populations at the Strait of Gibraltar. The persistence of the alga at Punta Calaburras could be due to the growth of resilient, microscopic stages as well as the arrival of few–celled stages originating from neighbouring localities, and transported by the permanent Atlantic Jet flowing from the Atlantic Ocean into the Mediterranean. A twenty-six year time series (from 1990 to 2015) of midsummer occurrence of F. guiryi thalli at Punta Calaburras has been analysed by correlating with oceanographic (sea surface temperature, an estimator of the Atlantic Jet power) and climatic factors (air temperature, rainfall, and North Atlantic Oscillation –NAO-, and Arctic Oscillation –AO- indexes). The midsummer occurrence of thalli clustered from 1990–1994 and 1999–2004, with sporadic occurrences in 2006 and 2011. Binary logistic regression showed that the occurrence of thalli at Punta Calaburras in midsummer is favoured under positive NAO index from April to June. It has been hypothesized that isolated population of F. guiryi should show greater stress than their congeners of permanent populations, and to this end, two approaches were used to evaluate stress: one based on the integrated response during ontogeny (developmental instability, based on measurements of the fractal branching pattern of algal thalli) and another based on the photosynthetic response. Although significant differences were detected in photosynthetic quantum yield and water loss under emersion conditions, with thalli from Punta Calaburras being more affected by emersion than those from Tarifa, the developmental instability showed that the population from Tarifa suffers higher stress during ontogeny than that from Punta Calaburras. In conclusion, this study demonstrates the teleconnection between atmospheric oscillations and survival and proliferation of marine macroalgae.

High Arctic summer warming tracked by increased Cassiope tetragona growth in the world's northernmost polar desert

Rapid climate warming has resulted in shrub expansion, mainly of erect deciduous shrubs in the Low Arctic, but the more extreme, sparsely vegetated, cold and dry High Arctic is generally considered to remain resistant to such shrub expansion in the next decades. Dwarf shrub dendrochronology may reveal climatological causes of past changes in growth, but is hindered at many High Arctic sites by short and fragmented instrumental climate records. Moreover, only few High Arctic shrub chronologies cover the recent decade of substantial warming. This study investigated the climatic causes of growth variability of the evergreen dwarf shrub Cassiope tetragona between 1927 and 2012 in the northernmost polar desert at 83°N in North Greenland. We analysed climate-growth relationships over the period with available instrumental data (1950-2012) between a 102-year-long C. tetragona shoot length chronology and instrumental climate records from the three nearest meteorological stations, gridded climate data, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) indices. July extreme maximum temperatures (JulT_emx ), as measured at Alert, Canada, June NAO, and previous October AO, together explained 41% of the observed variance in annual C. tetragona growth and likely represent in situ summer temperatures. JulT_emx explained 27% and was reconstructed back to 1927. The reconstruction showed relatively high growing season temperatures in the early to mid-twentieth century, as well as warming in recent decades. The rapid growth increase in C. tetragona shrubs in response to recent High Arctic summer warming shows that recent and future warming might promote an expansion of this evergreen dwarf shrub, mainly through densification of existing shrub patches, at High Arctic sites with sufficient winter snow cover and ample water supply during summer from melting snow and ice as well as thawing permafrost, contrasting earlier notions of limited shrub growth sensitivity to summer warming in the High Arctic.

Life history tactics shape amphibians' demographic responses to the North Atlantic Oscillation

Over the last three decades, climate abnormalities have been reported to be involved in biodiversity decline by affecting population dynamics. A growing number of studies have shown that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences the demographic parameters of a wide range of plant and animal taxa in different ways. Life history theory could help to understand these different demographic responses to the NAO. Indeed, theory states that the impact of weather variation on a species' demographic traits should depend on its position along the fast-slow continuum. In particular, it is expected that NAO would have a higher impact on recruitment than on adult survival in slow species, while the opposite pattern is expected occur in fast species. To test these predictions, we used long-term capture-recapture datasets (more than 15,000 individuals marked from 1965 to 2015) on different surveyed populations of three amphibian species in Western Europe: Triturus cristatus, Bombina variegata, and Salamandra salamandra. Despite substantial intraspecific variation, our study revealed that these three species differ in their position on a slow-fast gradient of pace of life. Our results also suggest that the differences in life history tactics influence amphibian responses to NAO fluctuations: Adult survival was most affected by the NAO in the species with the fastest pace of life (T. cristatus), whereas recruitment was most impacted in species with a slower pace of life (B. variegata and S. salamandra). In the context of climate change, our findings suggest that the capacity of organisms to deal with future changes in NAO values could be closely linked to their position on the fast-slow continuum.

Individual quality and age but not environmental or social conditions modulate costs of reproduction in a capital breeder

Costs associated with reproduction are widely known to play a role in the evolution of reproductive tactics with consequences to population and eco-evolutionary dynamics. Evaluating these costs as they pertain to species in the wild remains an important goal of evolutionary ecology. Individual heterogeneity, including differences in individual quality (i.e., among-individual differences in traits associated with survival and reproduction) or state, and variation in environmental and social conditions can modulate the costs of reproduction; however, few studies have considered effects of these factors simultaneously. Taking advantage of a detailed, long-term dataset for a population of feral horses (Sable Island, Nova Scotia, Canada), we address the question of how intrinsic (quality, age), environmental (winter severity, location), and social conditions (group size, composition, sex ratio, density) influence the costs of reproduction on subsequent reproduction. Individual quality was measured using a multivariate analysis on a combination of four static and dynamic traits expected to depict heterogeneity in individual performance. Female quality and age interacted with reproductive status of the previous year to determine current reproductive effort, while no effect of social or environmental covariates was found. High-quality females showed higher probabilities of giving birth and weaning their foal regardless of their reproductive status the previous year, while those of lower quality showed lower probabilities of producing foals in successive years. Middle-aged (prime) females had the highest probability of giving birth when they had not reproduced the year before, but no such relationship with age was found among females that had reproduced the previous year, indicating that prime-aged females bear higher costs of reproduction. We show that individual quality and age were key factors modulating the costs of reproduction in a capital breeder but that environmental or social conditions were not, highlighting the importance of considering multiple factors when studying costs of reproduction.

The influence of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index on hospital admissions through diseases of the circulatory system in Lisbon, Portugal

The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), meteorological variables, air pollutants, and hospital admissions due to diseases of circulatory systems in Lisbon (Portugal) during winter months (2003-2012). This paper is one of the few studies analyzing the impact of NAO on health through its influence on thermal stress and air pollution and is the first to be conducted in Lisbon. This study uses meteorological data (synthetized into a thermal comfort index), air pollutant metrics, and the NAO index (all clustered in 10-day cycles to overcome daily variability of the NAO index). The relationship between morbidity, thermal comfort index, NAO index, and air pollutants was explored through several linear models adjusted to seasonality through a periodic function. The possible indirect effect between the NAO index and hospital admissions was tested, assuming that NAO (independent variable) is affecting hospital admissions (outcome variable) through thermal discomfort and/or pollution levels (tested as individual mediators). This test was conducted through causal mediation analysis and adjusted for seasonal variation. The results from this study suggest a possible indirect relationship between NAO index and hospital admissions. Although NAO is not significantly associated with hospital admissions, it is significantly associated with CO, PM_2.5, NO, and SO₂ levels, which in turn increase the probability of hospitalization. The discomfort index (built with temperature and relative humidity) is significantly associated with hospital admissions, but its variability is not explained by the NAO index. This study highlights the impacts of the atmospheric circulation patterns on health. Furthermore, understanding the influence of the atmospheric circulation patterns can support the improvement of the existing contingency plans.

Structured additive distributional regression for analysing landings per unit effort in fisheries research

We analysed the landings per unit effort (LPUE) from the Barcelona trawl fleet targeting the red shrimp (Aristeus antennatus) using novel Bayesian structured additive distributional regression to gain a better understanding of the dynamics and determinants of variation in LPUE. The data set, covering a time span of 17 years, includes fleet-dependent variables (e.g. the number of trips performed by vessels), temporal variables (inter- and intra-annual variability) and environmental variables (the North Atlantic Oscillation index). Based on structured additive distributional regression, we evaluate (i) the gain in replacing purely linear predictors by additive predictors including nonlinear effects of continuous covariates, (ii) the inclusion of vessel-specific effects based on either fixed or random effects, (iii) different types of distributions for the response, and (iv) the potential gain in not only modelling the location but also the scale/shape parameter of these distributions. Our findings support that flexible model variants are indeed able to improve the fit considerably and that additional insights can be gained. Tools to select within several model specifications and assumptions are discussed in detail as well.

Sensitivity of marine protected area network connectivity to atmospheric variability

International efforts are underway to establish well-connected systems of marine protected areas (MPAs) covering at least 10% of the ocean by 2020. But the nature and dynamics of ocean ecosystem connectivity are poorly understood, with unresolved effects of climate variability. We used 40-year runs of a particle tracking model to examine the sensitivity of an MPA network for habitat-forming cold-water corals in the northeast Atlantic to changes in larval dispersal driven by atmospheric cycles and larval behaviour. Trajectories of Lophelia pertusa larvae were strongly correlated to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant pattern of interannual atmospheric circulation variability over the northeast Atlantic. Variability in trajectories significantly altered network connectivity and source-sink dynamics, with positive phase NAO conditions producing a well-connected but asymmetrical network connected from west to east. Negative phase NAO produced reduced connectivity, but notably some larvae tracked westward-flowing currents towards coral populations on the mid-Atlantic ridge. Graph theoretical metrics demonstrate critical roles played by seamounts and offshore banks in larval supply and maintaining connectivity across the network. Larval longevity and behaviour mediated dispersal and connectivity, with shorter lived and passive larvae associated with reduced connectivity. We conclude that the existing MPA network is vulnerable to atmospheric-driven changes in ocean circulation.

Sensitivity of marine protected area network connectivity to atmospheric variability

International efforts are underway to establish well-connected systems of marine protected areas (MPAs) covering at least 10% of the ocean by 2020. But the nature and dynamics of ocean ecosystem connectivity are poorly understood, with unresolved effects of climate variability. We used 40-year runs of a particle tracking model to examine the sensitivity of an MPA network for habitat-forming cold-water corals in the northeast Atlantic to changes in larval dispersal driven by atmospheric cycles and larval behaviour. Trajectories of Lophelia pertusa larvae were strongly correlated to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant pattern of interannual atmospheric circulation variability over the northeast Atlantic. Variability in trajectories significantly altered network connectivity and source-sink dynamics, with positive phase NAO conditions producing a well-connected but asymmetrical network connected from west to east. Negative phase NAO produced reduced connectivity, but notably some larvae tracked westward-flowing currents towards coral populations on the mid-Atlantic ridge. Graph theoretical metrics demonstrate critical roles played by seamounts and offshore banks in larval supply and maintaining connectivity across the network. Larval longevity and behaviour mediated dispersal and connectivity, with shorter lived and passive larvae associated with reduced connectivity. We conclude that the existing MPA network is vulnerable to atmospheric-driven changes in ocean circulation.

Flowering phenological changes in relation to climate change in Hungary

The importance of long-term plant phenological time series is growing in monitoring of climate change impacts worldwide. To detect trends and assess possible influences of climate in Hungary, we studied flowering phenological records for six species (Convallaria majalis, Taraxacum officinale, Syringa vulgaris, Sambucus nigra, Robinia pseudoacacia, Tilia cordata) based on phenological observations from the Hungarian Meteorological Service recorded between 1952 and 2000. Altogether, four from the six examined plant species showed significant advancement in flowering onset with an average rate of 1.9-4.4 days per decade. We found that it was the mean temperature of the 2-3 months immediately preceding the mean flowering date, which most prominently influenced its timing. In addition, several species were affected by the late winter (January-March) values of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. We also detected sporadic long-term effects for all species, where climatic variables from earlier months exerted influence with varying sign and little recognizable pattern: the temperature/NAO of the previous autumn (August-December) seems to influence Convallaria, and the temperature/precipitation of the previous spring (February-April) has some effect on Tilia flowering.

Conditions during adulthood affect cohort-specific reproductive success in an Arctic-nesting goose population

Variation in fitness between individuals in populations may be attributed to differing environmental conditions experienced among birth (or hatch) years (i.e., between cohorts). In this study, we tested whether cohort fitness could also be explained by environmental conditions experienced in years post-hatch, using 736 lifelong resighting histories of Greenland white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons flavirostris) marked in their first winter. Specifically, we tested whether variation in age at first successful reproduction, the size of the first successful brood and the proportion of successful breeders by cohort was explained by environmental conditions experienced on breeding areas in west Greenland during hatch year, those in adulthood prior to successful reproduction and those in the year of successful reproduction, using North Atlantic Oscillation indices as proxies for environmental conditions during these periods. Fifty-nine (8%) of all marked birds reproduced successfully (i.e., were observed on wintering areas with young) only once in their lifetime and 15 (2%) reproduced successfully twice or thrice. Variation in age at first successful reproduction was explained by the environmental conditions experienced during adulthood in the years prior to successful reproduction. Birds bred earliest (mean age 4) when environmental conditions were 'good' prior to the year of successful reproduction. Conversely, birds successfully reproduced at older ages (mean age 7) if they experienced adverse conditions prior to the year of successful reproduction. Hatch year conditions and an interaction between those experienced prior to and during the year of successful reproduction explained less (marginally significant) variation in age at first successful reproduction. Environmental conditions did not explain variation in the size of the first successful brood or the proportion of successful breeders. These findings show that conditions during adulthood prior to the year of successful reproduction are most important in determining the age at first successful reproduction in Greenland white-fronted geese. Very few birds bred successfully at all (most only once), which suggests that May environmental conditions on breeding areas have cohort effects that influence lifetime (and not just annual) reproductive success.

Earlier breeding, lower success: does the spatial scale of climatic conditions matter in a migratory passerine bird?

Following over 20 years of research on the climatic effects on biodiversity we now have strong evidence that climate change affects phenology, fitness, and distribution ranges of different taxa, including birds. Bird phenology likely responds to changes in local weather. It is also affected by climatic year‐to‐year variations on larger scales. Although such scale‐related effects are common in ecology, most studies analyzing the effects of climate change were accomplished using climatic information on a single spatial scale. In this study, we aimed at determining the scale‐dependent sensitivity of breeding phenology and success to climate change in a migratory passerine bird, the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica). For both annual broods, we investigated effects of local weather (local scale) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, large scale) on the timing of breeding and breeding success. Consistent with previous studies in migratory birds we found that barn swallows in Eastern Germany bred progressively earlier. At the same time, they showed reduced breeding success over time in response to recent climatic changes. Responses to climatic variation were observed on both local and large climatic scales, but they differed with respect to the ecological process considered. Specifically, we found that the timing of breeding was primarily influenced by large‐scale NAO variations and to a lesser extent by local weather on the breeding grounds. Conversely, climatic conditions on the local scale affected breeding success, exclusively. The observed decrease in breeding success over years is likely a consequence of scale‐related mismatches between climatic conditions during different breeding phases. This provides further evidence that a species' response of earlier breeding may not be enough to cope with climate change. Our results emphasize the importance of considering the response of ecological processes along different climatic scales in order to better understand the complexity of climate change effects on biodiversity.

Glacier maxima in Baffin Bay during the Medieval Warm Period coeval with Norse settlement

The climatic mechanisms driving the shift from the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) to the Little Ice Age (LIA) in the North Atlantic region are debated. We use cosmogenic beryllium-10 dating to develop a moraine chronology with century-scale resolution over the last millennium and show that alpine glaciers in Baffin Island and western Greenland were at or near their maximum LIA configurations during the proposed general timing of the MWP. Complimentary paleoclimate proxy data suggest that the western North Atlantic region remained cool, whereas the eastern North Atlantic region was comparatively warmer during the MWP-a dipole pattern compatible with a persistent positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. These results demonstrate that over the last millennium, glaciers approached their eventual LIA maxima before what is considered the classic LIA in the Northern Hemisphere. Furthermore, a relatively cool western North Atlantic region during the MWP has implications for understanding Norse migration patterns during the MWP. Our results, paired with other regional climate records, point to nonclimatic factors as contributing to the Norse exodus from the western North Atlantic region.

A daily Azores-Iceland North Atlantic Oscillation index back to 1850

We present the construction of a continuous, daily (09:00 UTC), station-based (Azores-Iceland) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index back to 1871 which is extended back to 1850 with additional daily mean data. The constructed index more than doubles the length of previously existing, widely available, daily NAO time series. The index is created using entirely observational sea-level pressure (SLP) data from Iceland and 73.5% of observational SLP data from the Azores - the remainder being filled in via reanalysis (Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project and European Mean Sea Level Pressure) SLP data. Icelandic data are taken from the Southwest Iceland pressure series. We construct and document a new Ponta Delgada SLP time series based on recently digitized and newly available data that extend back to 1872. The Ponta Delgada time series is created by splicing together several fractured records (from Ponta Delgada, Lajes, and Santa Maria) and filling in the major gaps (pre-1872, 1888-1905, and 1940-1941) and occasional days (145) with reanalysis data. Further homogeneity corrections are applied to the Azores record, and the daily (09:00 UTC) NAO index is then calculated. The resulting index, with its extended temporal length and daily resolution, is the first reconstruction of daily NAO back into the 19th Century and therefore is useful for researchers across multiple disciplines.

Water Masses and Nutrient Sources to the Gulf of Maine

The Gulf of Maine, a semi-enclosed basin on the continental shelf of the northwest Atlantic Ocean, is fed by surface and deep water flows from outside the Gulf: Scotian Shelf Water from the Nova Scotian shelf that enters the Gulf at the surface, and Slope Water that enters at depth and along the bottom through the Northeast Channel. There are two types of Slope Water, Labrador Slope Water (LSW) and Warm Slope Water (WSW); it is these deep water masses that are the major source of dissolved inorganic nutrients to the Gulf. It has been known for some time that the volume inflow of Slope Waters of either type that enters the Gulf of Maine is variable, that it co-varies with the magnitude of inflowing Scotian Shelf Water, and that periods of greater inflows of Scotian Shelf Water have become more frequent in recent years, accompanied by reduced Slope Water inflows. We present here analyses of a ten-year record of data collected by moored sensors in Jordan Basin, in the interior Gulf of Maine, and in the Northeast Channel, along with recent and historical hydrographic and nutrient data, that help reveal the nature of Scotian Shelf Water and Slope Water inflows. Proportional inflows of nutrient-rich Slope Waters and nutrient-poor Scotian Shelf Waters alternate episodically with one another on time scales of months to several years, creating a variable nutrient field upon which the biological productivities of the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank depend. Unlike decades past, the inflows of Slope Waters of either type do not appear to be correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, which had been shown earlier to influence the relative proportions of the two Slope Waters, WSW and LSW, that enter the Gulf. We suggest that of greater importance in recent years are more frequent, episodic influxes of colder, fresher, less dense, and low-nutrient Scotian Shelf Water into the Gulf of Maine, and concomitant reductions in the inflow of deep, nutrient-rich Slope Waters. We also discuss evidence of modified Gulf Stream ring water that penetrated to Jordan Basin in summer of 2013.

Synchrony in hunting bags: reaction on climatic and human induced changes?

Human induced land use changes negatively impact the viability of many wildlife species through habitat modifications and mortality, while some species seem to benefit from it. Roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), a wide spread ungulate increased both its abundance and range throughout Europe. This pattern is also reflected in the increasing hunting bags over the last 40 years. Such a development raises questions about the relationship between human hunting and population dynamics and, in particular, about the potential of human hunting to control related populations. We analysed and reconstructed annual hunting bags of roe deer for three federal states of northern Germany, Brandenburg, Lower Saxony and Mecklenburg West Pomerania for the years 1972 to 2011. Since 1992 the hunting bags from these three states are significantly higher than those reported for the years 1972-1991. Our reconstruction takes into consideration effects of climate variability, expressed by inter-annual changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation and impacts from rapeseed and wheat cultivation. We found that severe winters, which are indicated by negative values of the North Atlantic Oscillation during the months December-March, directly, or with a time lag of two years affect the number of deer shot. In contrast, an increase in the area used for rapeseed cultivation coincides with higher numbers of roe deer shot, with respect to the overall mean value. Consequently, we recommend that wildlife management addresses changes in large scale processes including land use pattern and climate variability.

Linking climate change to population cycles of hares and lynx

The classic 10-year population cycle of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus, Erxleben 1777) and Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis, Kerr 1792) in the boreal forests of North America has drawn much attention from both population and community ecologists worldwide; however, the ecological mechanisms driving the 10-year cyclic dynamic pattern are not fully revealed yet. In this study, by the use of historic fur harvest data, we constructed a series of generalized additive models to study the effects of density dependence, predation, and climate (both global climate indices of North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and northern hemispheric temperature (NHT) and local weather data including temperature, rainfall, and snow). We identified several key pathways from global and local climate to lynx with various time lags: rainfall shows a negative, and snow shows a positive effect on lynx; NHT and NAO negatively affect lynx through their positive effect on rainfall and negative effect on snow; SOI positively affects lynx through its negative effect on rainfall. Direct or delayed density dependency effects, the prey effect of hare on lynx and a 2-year delayed negative effect of lynx on hare (defined as asymmetric predation) were found. The simulated population dynamics is well fitted to the observed long-term fluctuations of hare and lynx populations. Through simulation, we find density dependency and asymmetric predation, only producing damped oscillation, are necessary but not sufficient factors in causing the observed 10-year cycles; while extrinsic climate factors are important in producing and modifying the sustained cycles. Two recent population declines of lynx (1940-1955 and after 1980) were likely caused by ongoing climate warming indirectly. Our results provide an alternative explanation to the mechanism of the 10-year cycles, and there is a need for further investigation on links between disappearance of population cycles and global warming in hare-lynx system.