Rapid shifts in distribution and high-latitude persistence of oceanographic habitat revealed using citizen science data from a climate change hotspot

A local community on a global collective intelligence platform: A case study of individual preferences and collective bias in ecological citizen science

The collective intelligence of crowds could potentially be harnessed to address global challenges, such as biodiversity loss and species' extinction. For wisdom to emerge from the crowd, certain conditions are required. Importantly, the crowd should be diverse and people's contributions should be independent of one another. Here we investigate a global citizen-science platform-iNaturalist-on which citizens report on wildlife observations, collectively producing maps of species' spatiotemporal distribution. The organization of global platforms such as iNaturalist around local projects compromises the assumption of diversity and independence, and thus raises concerns regarding the quality of such collectively-generated data. We spent four years closely immersing ourselves in a local community of citizen scientists who reported their wildlife sightings on iNaturalist. Our ethnographic study involved the use of questionnaires, interviews, and analysis of archival materials. Our analysis revealed observers' nuanced considerations as they chose where, when, and what type of species to monitor, and which observations to report. Following a thematic analysis of the data, we organized observers' preferences and constraints into four main categories: recordability, community value, personal preferences, and convenience. We show that while some individual partialities can "cancel each other out", others are commonly shared among members of the community, potentially biasing the aggregate database of observations. Our discussion draws attention to the way in which widely-shared individual preferences might manifest as spatial, temporal, and crucially, taxonomic biases in the collectively-created database. We offer avenues for continued research that will help better understand-and tackle-individual preferences, with the goal of attenuating collective bias in data, and facilitating the generation of reliable state-of-nature reports. Finally, we offer insights into the broader literature on biases in collective intelligence systems.

Projected habitat preferences of commercial fish under different scenarios of climate change

The challenges of commercial species with the threats of climate change make it necessary to predict the changes in the distributional shifts and habitat preferences of the species under possible future scenarios. We aim to demonstrate how future climatic changes will affect the habitat suitability of three species of commercial fish using the predictive technique MaxEnt. The dataset used to extract geographical records included OBIS (54%), GBIF (1%), and literature (45%). The output of the model indicated accurate projections of MaxEnt (AUC above 0.9). Temperature was the main descriptor responsible for the main effects on the distribution of commercial fish. With increasing RCP from 2.5 to 8.5, the species would prefer saltier, higher temperatures and deeper waters in the future. We observed different percentages of suitable habitats between species during RCPs showing distinct sensitivity of each fish in facing climate changes. Negative effects from climate change on the distribution patterns of commercial fish were predicted to lead to varying degrees of reduction and changes of suitable habitats and movement of species towards higher latitudes. The finding emphasizes to implement adaptive management measures to preserve the stocks of these commercial fish considering that the intensification of the effects of climate change on subtropical areas and overexploited species is predicted.

Welcoming More Participation in Open Data Science for the Oceans

Open science is a global movement happening across all research fields. Enabled by technology and the open web, it builds on years of efforts by individuals, grassroots organizations, institutions, and agencies. The goal is to share knowledge and broaden participation in science, from early ideation to making research outputs openly accessible to all (open access). With an emphasis on transparency and collaboration, the open science movement dovetails with efforts to increase diversity, equity, inclusion, and belonging in science and society. The US Biden-Harris Administration and many other US government agencies have declared 2023 the Year of Open Science, providing a great opportunity to boost participation in open science for the oceans. For researchers day-to-day, open science is a critical piece of modern analytical workflows with increasing amounts of data. Therefore, we focus this article on open data science-the tooling and people enabling reproducible, transparent, inclusive practices for data-intensive research-and its intersection with the marine sciences. We discuss the state of various dimensions of open science and argue that technical advancements have outpaced our field's culture change to incorporate them. Increasing inclusivity and technical skill building are interlinked and must be prioritized within the marine science community to find collaborative solutions for responding to climate change and other threats to marine biodiversity and society.

Individual consistency in the localised foraging behaviour of shy albatross (Thalassarche cauta)

Quantifying the intra- and interindividual variation that exists within a population can provide meaningful insights into a population's vulnerability and response to rapid environmental change. We characterise the foraging behaviour of 308 trips taken by 96 shy albatross (Thalassarche cauta) from Albatross Island across seven consecutive years. At a population level, incubating shy albatross exploited a consistent area within ca. 500 km radius of their breeding colony. During half of the trips, individuals utilised the closest shelf break to the west of the colony, where upwelling events have been reported. The other half of the trips were exclusively within the neritic zone, utilising a variety of locations within the Bass Strait. Furthermore, we found evidence of individual consistency to geographic locations, with subsequent trips by an individual more similar than random trips from all individuals in our data, both within and between years (G-test, p < .05). Between-individual variation in foraging behaviour was not meaningfully explained by age (linear regression, p > .05) or sex (t-test, p > .05) for any metric, suggesting that other intrinsic individual factors are accounting for between-individual variation in foraging trips. A localised foraging distribution is unusual for albatross, which, combined with high variation in space use between individuals demonstrated here, suggests that this species is accessing adequate resources near the colony. Overall, these findings suggest that incubating shy albatross from Albatross Island exhibit tendencies of a generalist population comprised of uniquely specialised individuals. These results suggest that this species is operating below its biological capacity in this fast-warming area and provide a baseline from which to assess future change.

Warming and hypoxia threaten a valuable scallop fishery: A warning for commercial bivalve ventures in climate change hotspots

Marine molluscs constitute the second largest marine fishery and are often caught in coastal and estuarine habitats. Temperature is increasing in these habitats at a rate greater than predicted, especially in warming "hotspots". This warming is accompanied by hypoxia in a duo of stressors that threatens coastal mollusc fisheries and aquaculture. Collapses of the northern bay scallop (Argopecten irradians irradians) fisheries on the Atlantic coast of the USA are likely to be driven by rapid rates of coastal warming and may provide an ominous glimpse into the prospects of other coastal mollusc fisheries in climate warming hotspots.

Now you see me: "first" records of the greater amberjack Seriola dumerili at Rapa Nui range extension or increased scientific effort?

We report new records of the fisheries-harvested subtropical greater amberjack Seriola dumerili for the south-east Pacific Ocean. Despite local fishers' asserting that three Seriola morphotypes exist in the region, only one species (the yellowtail amberjack Seriola lalandi) was previously scientifically recorded for Rapa Nui (also known as Easter Island). Whilst we present the first "scientific record", S. dumerili, traditional ecological knowledge suggests that this is likely a pre-existing (albeit transient) species of the Rapa Nui ecoregion. Establishing the existing/historic distributional limits of commercially and ecologically valuable species is key for observing climate-driven distribution shifts, and the inclusion of traditional ecological knowledge is particularly important in areas with relatively lower scientific effort.

Evaluating the Fitness for Use of Citizen Science Data for Wildlife Monitoring

Contributory citizen science programs focused on ecological monitoring can produce fine-grained and expansive data sets across spatial and temporal scales. With this data collection potential, citizen scientists can significantly impact the ability to monitor ecological patterns. However, scientists still harbor skepticism about using citizen science data in their work, generally due to doubts about data quality. Numerous peer-reviewed articles have addressed data quality in citizen science. Yet, many of these methods are not useable by third-party scientists (scientists who are not directly involved in the citizen science program). In addition, these methods generally capture internal data quality rather than a dataset’s potential to be used for a specific purpose. Assessing data fitness for use represents a promising approach to evaluating data accuracy and quality for different applications and contexts. In this article, we employ a Spatial, Temporal, Aptness, and Application (STAAq) assessment approach to assess data fitness for use of citizen science datasets. We tested the STAAq assessment approach through a case study examining the distribution of caribou in Denali National Park and Preserve. Three different datasets were used in the test, Map of Life data (a global scale citizen science mobile application for recording species observations), Ride Observe and Record data (a program sponsored by the park staff where incentivized volunteers observe species in the park), and conventionally collected radio collar data. The STAAq assessment showed that the Map of Life and Ride Observe and Record program data are fit for monitoring caribou distribution in the park. This data fitness for use approach is a promising way to assess the external quality of a dataset and its fitness to address particular research or monitoring questions. This type of assessment may help citizen science skeptics see the value and potential of citizen science collected data and encourage the use of citizen science data by more scientists.

Species on the move around the Australian coastline: A continental-scale review of climate-driven species redistribution in marine systems

Climate-driven changes in the distribution of species are a pervasive and accelerating impact of climate change, and despite increasing research effort in this rapidly emerging field, much remains unknown or poorly understood. We lack a holistic understanding of patterns and processes at local, regional and global scales, with detailed explorations of range shifts in the southern hemisphere particularly under-represented. Australian waters encompass the world's third largest marine jurisdiction, extending from tropical to sub-Antarctic climate zones, and have waters warming at rates twice the global average in the north and two to four times in the south. Here, we report the results of a multi-taxon continent-wide review describing observed and predicted species redistribution around the Australian coastline, and highlight critical gaps in knowledge impeding our understanding of, and response to, these considerable changes. Since range shifts were first reported in the region in 2003, 198 species from nine Phyla have been documented shifting their distribution, 87.3% of which are shifting poleward. However, there is little standardization of methods or metrics reported in observed or predicted shifts, and both are hindered by a lack of baseline data. Our results demonstrate the importance of historical data sets and underwater visual surveys, and also highlight that approximately one-fifth of studies incorporated citizen science. These findings emphasize the important role the public has had, and can continue to play, in understanding the impact of climate change. Most documented shifts are of coastal fish species in sub-tropical and temperate systems, while tropical systems in general were poorly explored. Moreover, most distributional changes are only described at the poleward boundary, with few studies considering changes at the warmer, equatorward range limit. Through identifying knowledge gaps and research limitations, this review highlights future opportunities for strategic research effort to improve the representation of Australian marine species and systems in climate-impact research.

Future changes to the upper ocean Western Boundary Currents across two generations of climate models

Western Boundary Currents (WBCs) are important for the oceanic transport of heat, dissolved gases and nutrients. They can affect regional climate and strongly influence the dispersion and distribution of marine species. Using state-of-the-art climate models from the latest and previous Climate Model Intercomparison Projects, we evaluate upper ocean circulation and examine future projections, focusing on subtropical and low-latitude WBCs. Despite their coarse resolution, climate models successfully reproduce most large-scale circulation features with ensemble mean transports typically within the range of observational uncertainty, although there is often a large spread across the models and some currents are systematically too strong or weak. Despite considerable differences in model structure, resolution and parameterisations, many currents show highly consistent projected changes across the models. For example, the East Australian Current, Brazil Current and Agulhas Current extensions are projected to intensify, while the Gulf Stream, Indonesian Throughflow and Agulhas Current are projected to weaken. Intermodel differences in most future circulation changes can be explained in part by projected changes in the large-scale surface winds. In moving to the latest model generation, despite structural model advancements, we find little systematic improvement in the simulation of ocean transports nor major differences in the projected changes. 

Projecting marine species range shifts from only temperature can mask climate vulnerability

Climate change is causing range shifts in many marine species, with implications for biodiversity and fisheries. Previous research has mainly focused on how species' ranges will respond to changing ocean temperatures, without accounting for other environmental covariates that could affect future distribution patterns. Here, we integrate habitat suitability modeling approaches, a high-resolution global climate model projection, and detailed fishery-independent and -dependent faunal datasets from one of the most extensively monitored marine ecosystems-the U.S. Northeast Shelf. We project the responses of 125 species in this region to climate-driven changes in multiple oceanographic factors (e.g., ocean temperature, salinity, sea surface height) and seabed characteristics (i.e., rugosity and depth). Comparing model outputs based on ocean temperature and seabed characteristics to those that also incorporated salinity and sea surface height (proxies for primary productivity and ocean circulation features), we explored how an emphasis on ocean temperature in projecting species' range shifts can impact assessments of species' climate vulnerability. We found that multifactor habitat suitability models performed better in explaining and predicting species historical distribution patterns than temperature-based models. We also found that multifactor models provided more concerning assessments of species' future distribution patterns than temperature-based models, projecting that species' ranges will largely shift northward and become more contracted and fragmented over time. Our results suggest that using ocean temperature as a primary determinant of range shifts can significantly alter projections, masking species' climate vulnerability, and potentially forestalling proactive management.

Beyond Capricornia: Tropical Sea Slugs (Gastropoda, Heterobranchia) Extend Their Distributions into the Tasman Sea

There is increasing evidence of poleward migration of a broad range of taxa under the influence of a warming ocean. However, patchy research effort, the lack of pre-existing baseline data, and taxonomic uncertainty for some taxa means that unambiguous interpretation of observations is often difficult. Here, we propose that heterobranch sea slugs provide a useful target group for monitoring shifts in distribution. As many sea slugs are highly colourful, popular with underwater photographers and rock-pool ramblers, and found in accessible habitats, they provide an ideal target for citizen scientist programs, such as the Sea Slug Census. This maximises our ability to rapidly gain usable diversity and distributional data. Here, we review records of recent range extensions by tropical species into the subtropical and temperate waters of eastern Australia and document, for the first time in Australian waters, observations of three tropical species of sea slug as well as range extensions for a further six to various locations in the Tasman Sea.