Benthic ecoregionalization based on echinoid fauna of the Southern Ocean supports current proposals of Antarctic Marine Protected Areas under IPCC scenarios of climate change

Circumpolar and Regional Seascape Drivers of Genomic Variation in a Southern Ocean Octopus

Understanding how ecological, environmental and geographic features influence population genetic patterns provides crucial insights into a species' evolutionary history, as well as their vulnerability or resilience under climate change. In the Southern Ocean, population genetic variation is influenced across multiple spatial scales ranging from circum-Antarctic, which encompasses the entire continent, to regional, with varying levels of geographic separation. However, comprehensive analyses testing the relative importance of different environmental and geographic variables on genomic variation across these scales are generally lacking in the Southern Ocean. Here, we examine genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms of the Southern Ocean octopus Pareledone turqueti across the Scotia Sea and the Antarctic continental shelf, at depths between 102 and 1342 m, throughout most of this species' range. The circumpolar distribution of P. turqueti is biogeographically structured with a clear signature of isolation-by-geographical distance, but with long-distance genetic connectivity also detected between East and West Antarctica. Genomic variation of P. turqueti was also associated with bottom water temperature at a circumpolar scale, driven by a genotype-temperature association with the warmer sub-Antarctic Shag Rocks and South Georgia. Within the Scotia Sea, geographic distance, oxygen and fine-scale isolation-by-water depth were apparent drivers of genomic variation at regional scales. Putative positive selection of haemocyanin (oxygen transport protein), calcium ion transport and genes linked to RNA modification, detected within the Scotia Sea, suggest physiological adaptation to the regional sharp temperature gradient (~0-+2°C). Overall, we identified seascape drivers of genomic variation in the Southern Ocean at circumpolar and regional scales in P. turqueti and contextualised the role of environmental adaptations in the Southern Ocean.

Incorporating mesopelagic fish into the evaluation of conservation areas for marine living resources under climate change scenarios

Mesopelagic fish (meso-fish) are central species within the Southern Ocean (SO). However, their ecosystem role and adaptive capacity to climate change are rarely integrated into protected areas assessments. This is a pity given their importance as crucial prey and predators in food webs, coupled with the impacts of climate change. Here, we estimate the habitat distribution of nine meso-fish using an ensemble model approach (MAXENT, random forest, and boosted regression tree). Four climate model simulations were used to project their distribution under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for short-term (2006-2055) and long-term (2050-2099) periods. In addition, we assess the ecological representativeness of protected areas under climate change scenarios using meso-fish as indicator species. Our models show that all species shift poleward in the future. Lanternfishes (family Myctophidae) are predicted to migrate poleward more than other families (Paralepididae, Nototheniidae, Bathylagidae, and Gonostomatidae). In comparison, lanternfishes were projected to increase habitat area in the eastern SO but lose area in the western SO; the opposite was projected for species in other families. Important areas (IAs) of meso-fish are mainly distributed near the Antarctic Peninsula and East Antarctica. Negotiated protected area cover 23% of IAs at present and 38% of IAs in the future (RCP8.5, long-term future). Many IAs of meso-fish still need to be included in protected areas, such as the Prydz Bay and the seas around the Antarctic Peninsula. Our results provide a framework for evaluating protected areas incorporating climate change adaptation strategies for protected areas management.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42995-023-00188-9.

Mapping the biodiversity conservation gaps in the East China sea

Being one of the most productive China seas, the East China Sea is facing the challenge of unprecedented biodiversity loss and habitat degradation under the dual pressure of anthropogenic disturbance and climate change. Although marine protected areas (MPAs) are considered an effective conservation tool, it remains unclear whether existing MPAs adequately protect marine biodiversity. To investigate this issue, we first constructed a maximum entropy model to predict the distributions of 359 threatened species and identified its species richness hotspots in the East China Sea. Then we identified priority conservation areas (PCAs¹) under different protection scenarios. Since the actual conservation in the East China Sea is far from the goals proposed by Convention on Biological Diversity, we calculated a more realistic conservation goal by quantifying the relationship between the percentage of protected areas in the East China Sea and the average proportion of habitats covered for all species. Finally, we mapped conservation gaps by comparing the PCAs under the proposed goal and existing MPAs. Our results showed that these threatened species were very heterogeneously distributed, and their abundance was highest at low latitudes and in nearshore areas. The identified PCAs were distributed mainly in nearshore areas, especially in the Yangtze River estuary and along the Taiwan Strait. Based on the current distribution of threatened species, we suggest a minimum conservation goal of 20.4% of the total area of the East China Sea. Only 8.8% of the recommended PCAs are currently within the existing MPAs. We recommend expanding the MPAs in six areas to achieve the minimum conservation target. Our findings provide a solid scientific reference and a reasonable short-term target for China to realize the vision of protecting 30% of its oceans by 2030.