What and where? Predicting invasion hotspots in the Arctic marine realm

Using a metabolomics approach to investigate the sensitivity of a potential Arctic-invader and its Arctic sister-species to marine heatwaves and traditional harvesting disturbances

Coastal species are threatened by fishing practices and changing environmental conditions, such as marine heatwaves (MHW). The mechanisms that confer tolerance to such stressors in marine invertebrates are poorly understood. However, differences in tolerance among different species may be attributed to their geographical distribution. To test the tolerance of species occupying different thermal ranges, we used two closely related bivalves the softshell clam Mya arenaria (Linnaeus, 1758), a cold-temperate invader with demonstrated potential for establishment in the Arctic, and the blunt gaper Mya truncata (Linnaeus, 1758), a native polar species. Clams were subjected to a thermal stress, mimicking a MHW, and harvesting stress in a controlled environment. Seven acute temperature changes (2, 7, 12, 17, 22, 27, and 32 °C) were tested at two harvesting disturbance intensities (with, without). Survival was measured after 12 days and three tissues (gills, mantle, and posterior adductor muscle) collected from surviving individuals for targeted metabolomic profiling. MHW tolerance differed significantly between species: 26.9 °C for M. arenaria and 17.8 °C for M. truncata, with a negligeable effect of harvesting. At the upper thermal limit, M. arenaria displayed a more profound metabolomic remodelling when compared to M. truncata, and this varied greatly between tissue types. Network analysis revealed differences in pathway utilization at the upper MHW limit, with M. arenaria displaying a greater reliance on multiple DNA repair and expression and cell signalling pathways, while M. truncata was limited to fewer pathways. This suggests that M. truncata is ill equipped to cope with warming environments. MHW patterning in the Northwest Atlantic may be a strong predictor of population survival and future range shifts in these two clam species. As polar environments undergo faster rates of warming compared to the global average, M. truncata may be outcompeted by M. arenaria expanding into its native range.

Development and application of a second-generation multilingual tool for invasion risk screening of non-native terrestrial plants

Under the increasing threat to native ecosystems posed by non-native species invasions, there is an urgent need for decision support tools that can more effectively identify non-native species likely to become invasive. As part of the screening (first step) component in non-native species risk analysis, decision support tools have been developed for aquatic and terrestrial organisms. Amongst these tools is the Weed Risk Assessment (WRA) for screening non-native plants. The WRA has provided the foundations for developing the first-generation WRA-type Invasiveness Screening Kit (ISK) tools applicable to a range of aquatic species, and more recently for the second-generation ISK tools applicable to all aquatic organisms (including plants) and terrestrial animals. Given the most extensive usage of the latter toolkits, this study describes the development and application of the Terrestrial Plant Species Invasiveness Screening Kit (TPS-ISK). As a second-generation ISK tool, the TPS-ISK is a multilingual turnkey application that provides several advantages relative to the WRA: (i) compliance with the minimum standards against which a protocol should be evaluated for invasion process and management approaches; (ii) enhanced questionnaire comprehensiveness including a climate change component; (iii) provision of a level of confidence; (iv) error-free computation of risk scores; (v) multilingual support; (vi) possibility for across-study comparisons of screening outcomes; (vii) a powerful graphical user interface; (viii) seamless software deployment and accessibility with improved data exchange. The TPS-ISK successfully risk-ranked five representative sample species for the main taxonomic groups supported by the tool and ten angiosperms previously screened with the WRA for Turkey. The almost 20-year continuous development and evolution of the ISK tools, as opposed to the WRA, closely meet the increasing demand by scientists and decision-makers for a reliable, comprehensive, updatable and easily deployable decision support tool. For terrestrial plant screening, these requirements are therefore met by the newly developed TPS-ISK.

Distribution and protection of Thesium chinense Turcz. under climate and land use change

Wild medicinal plants are prominent in the field of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM), but their availability is being impacted by human activities and ecological degradation in China. To ensure sustainable use of these resources, it is crucial to scientifically plan areas for wild plant cultivation. Thesium chinense, a known plant antibiotic, has been overharvested in recent years, resulting in a sharp reduction in its wild resources. In this study, we employed three atmospheric circulation models and four socio-economic approaches (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) to investigate the primary environmental factors influencing the distribution of T. chinense. We also examined changes in its suitable area using the Biomod2 package. Additionally, we utilized the PLUS model to project and analyze future land use changes in climate-stable regions for T. chinense. Our planning for wild tending areas of T. chinense was facilitated by the ZONATION software. Over the next century, the climate-stable regions for T. chinense in China is approximately 383.05 × 104 km2, while the natural habitat in this region will progressively decline. Under the current climate conditions, about 65.06% of the habitats in the high suitable areas of T. chinense are not affected by future land use changes in China. Through hotspot analysis, we identified 17 hotspot cities as ideal areas for the wild tending of T. chinense, including 6 core hotspot cities, 6 sub-hotspot cities, and 5 fringe hotspot cities. These findings contribute to a comprehensive research framework for the cultivation planning of T. chinense and other medicinal plants.

Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Three Rare Salamanders (Liua shihi, Pseudohynobius jinfo, and Tylototriton wenxianensis) in Chongqing, China, and Their Conservation Implications

The Wushan Salamander (Liua shihi), Jinfo Salamander (Pseudohynobius jinfo), and Wenxian Knobby Salamander (Tylototriton wenxianensis) are rare national Class II protected wild animals in China. We performed MaxEnt modeling to predict and analyze the potential distribution and trends of these species in Chongqing under current and future climate conditions. Species distribution data were primarily obtained from field surveys, supplemented by museum collections and the existing literature. These efforts yielded 636 records, including 43 for P. jinfo, 23 for T. wenxianensis, and 570 for L. shihi. Duplicate records within the same 100 m × 100 m grid cell were removed using ENMTools, resulting in 10, 12, and 58 valid distribution points for P. jinfo, T. wenxianensis, and L. shihi, respectively. The optimization of feature class parameters (FC) and the regularization multiplier (RM) were applied using R package "ENMeval 2.0" to establish the optimal model with MaxEnt. The refined models were applied to simulate the suitable distribution areas for the three species. The results indicate that the current suitable habitat area for L. shihi accounted for 9.72% of the whole region of the Chongqing municipality. It is projected that, by 2050, the proportion of suitable habitat will increase to 12.54% but will decrease to 11.98% by 2070 and further decline to 8.80% by 2090. The current suitable habitat area for P. jinfo accounted for 1.08% of the whole region of the Chongqing municipality, which is expected to decrease to 0.31%% by 2050, 0.20% by 2070, and 0.07% by 2090. The current suitable habitat area for T. wenxianensis accounted for 0.81% of the whole region of the Chongqing municipality, which is anticipated to decrease to 0.37% by 2050, 0.21% by 2070, and 0.06% by 2090. Human disturbance, climate variables, and habitat characteristics are the primary factors influencing the distribution of three salamander species in Chongqing. The proximity to roads significantly impacts L. shihi, while climate conditions mainly affect P. jinfo, and the distance to water sources is crucial for T. wenxianensis. The following suggestions were made based on key variables identified for each species: (1) For L. shihi, it is imperative to minimize human disturbances and preserve areas without roads and the existing vegetation within nature reserves to ensure their continued existence. (2) For P. jinfo, the conservation of high-altitude habitats is of utmost importance, along with the reduction in disturbances caused by roads to maintain the species' ecological niche. (3) For T. wenxianensis, the protection of aquatic habitats is crucial. Additionally, efforts to mitigate the impacts of road construction and enhance public awareness are essential for the preservation of this species and the connectivity of its habitats.

Mapping the biodiversity conservation gaps in the East China sea

Being one of the most productive China seas, the East China Sea is facing the challenge of unprecedented biodiversity loss and habitat degradation under the dual pressure of anthropogenic disturbance and climate change. Although marine protected areas (MPAs) are considered an effective conservation tool, it remains unclear whether existing MPAs adequately protect marine biodiversity. To investigate this issue, we first constructed a maximum entropy model to predict the distributions of 359 threatened species and identified its species richness hotspots in the East China Sea. Then we identified priority conservation areas (PCAs¹) under different protection scenarios. Since the actual conservation in the East China Sea is far from the goals proposed by Convention on Biological Diversity, we calculated a more realistic conservation goal by quantifying the relationship between the percentage of protected areas in the East China Sea and the average proportion of habitats covered for all species. Finally, we mapped conservation gaps by comparing the PCAs under the proposed goal and existing MPAs. Our results showed that these threatened species were very heterogeneously distributed, and their abundance was highest at low latitudes and in nearshore areas. The identified PCAs were distributed mainly in nearshore areas, especially in the Yangtze River estuary and along the Taiwan Strait. Based on the current distribution of threatened species, we suggest a minimum conservation goal of 20.4% of the total area of the East China Sea. Only 8.8% of the recommended PCAs are currently within the existing MPAs. We recommend expanding the MPAs in six areas to achieve the minimum conservation target. Our findings provide a solid scientific reference and a reasonable short-term target for China to realize the vision of protecting 30% of its oceans by 2030.

Native tube-building polychaete prefers to anchor non-native alga over other macrophytes

Novel facultative mutualisms that develop between native and non-native ecosystem engineers can lead to the retention of the non-native partner. In some cases, behavior plays an additional, but less understood, role in the development and persistence of mutualisms. In soft-sediment marine habitats along the western Atlantic, the native decorator worm Diopatra cuprea anchors the non-native red alga Gracilaria vermiculophylla to its tube cap in a mutualism. To understand whether the worm's usage of G. vermiculophylla could represent a preference, we first surveyed the species composition of macrophytes affixed to worm tube caps at three sites in coastal Virginia, USA using transect and quadrat sampling. These unmanipulated field surveys supported previous work revealing variable, but often high frequencies (31-98%) of D. cuprea decoration with G. vermiculophylla. We next used field manipulations and controlled laboratory experiments to test the consistency of individual D. cuprea decoration with G. vermiculophylla versus three common macrophytes (Ulva sp., Agardhiella sp., and Spartina alterniflora) found in our field surveys. Twenty-four hours after removing the worm's tube cap in the field, D. cuprea decoration was dominated by both G. vermiculophylla (39.6%) and S. alterniflora (25.9%). When provided a choice of macrophytes in the laboratory, individual D. cuprea consistently decorated with G. vermiculophylla (58.7%) over the other macrophytes, showing a preference for the non-native macrophyte. Our study suggests that preference can drive strong and steadfast interactions between native and non-native organisms, facilitating the latter's persistence and spread, change available habitat, and alter community interactions.

Niche breadth and biodiversity change derived from marine Amphipoda species off Iceland

Understanding the ecological requirements and thresholds of individual species is crucial to better predict potential outcomes of climate change on species distribution. In particular, species optima and lower and upper limits along resource gradients require attention. Based on Huisman‐Olff‐Fresco (HOF) models, we determined species‐specific responses along gradients of nine environmental parameters including depth in order to estimate niche attributes of 30 deep‐sea benthic amphipods occurring around Iceland. We, furthermore, examined the relationships between niche breadth, occupancy, and geographic range assuming that species with a wider niche are spatially more widely dispersed and vice versa. Overall, our results reveal that species react very differently to environmental gradients, which is independent of the family affiliation of the respective species. We could infer a strong relationship between occupancy and geographic range and also relate this to differences in niche breadth; that is specialist species with a narrow niche had a more limited distribution and may thus be more threatened by changing environmental conditions than generalist species, which are more widespread. Given the preponderance of rare species in the deep sea, this implies that many species could be at risk. However, this must be carefully weighed against geographical data gaps in this area, given that many deep‐sea areas are severely undersampled and the true distribution of most species is unknown. After all, our results underline that an accurate taxonomic classification is of crucial importance, without which ecological niche properties cannot be determined and which is hence fundamental for the assessment and understanding of changes in biodiversity in the face of increasing human perturbations.

Ship traffic connects Antarctica's fragile coasts to worldwide ecosystems

Ship movements related to fishing, tourism, research, and supply expose the Antarctic continent to human impacts. Until now, only rough estimates or industry-specific information have been available to inform evidence-based policy to mitigate the introduction of nonnative marine species. Antarctica’s Southern Ocean supports a unique biota and represents the only global marine region without any known biological invasions. However, climate change is removing physiological barriers to potential invasive nonnative species and increasing ship activities are raising propagule pressure. The successful conservation of iconic Antarctic species and environments relies on addressing both climate change and direct, localized human impact. We have identified high-risk areas for introduced species and provide essential data that will underpin better evidence-based management in the region.

Antarctica, an isolated and long considered pristine wilderness, is becoming increasingly exposed to the negative effects of ship-borne human activity, and especially the introduction of invasive species. Here, we provide a comprehensive quantitative analysis of ship movements into Antarctic waters and a spatially explicit assessment of introduction risk for nonnative marine species in all Antarctic waters. We show that vessels traverse Antarctica’s isolating natural barriers, connecting it directly via an extensive network of ship activity to all global regions, especially South Atlantic and European ports. Ship visits are more than seven times higher to the Antarctic Peninsula (especially east of Anvers Island) and the South Shetland Islands than elsewhere around Antarctica, together accounting for 88% of visits to Southern Ocean ecoregions. Contrary to expectations, we show that while the five recognized “Antarctic Gateway cities” are important last ports of call, especially for research and tourism vessels, an additional 53 ports had vessels directly departing to Antarctica from 2014 to 2018. We identify ports outside Antarctica where biosecurity interventions could be most effectively implemented and the most vulnerable Antarctic locations where monitoring programs for high-risk invaders should be established.

Biopollution by Invasive Marine Non-Indigenous Species: A Review of Potential Adverse Ecological Effects in a Changing Climate

Biopollution by alien species is considered one of the main threats to environmental health. The marine environment, traditionally less studied than inland domains, has been the object of recent work that is reviewed here. Increasing scientific evidence has been accumulated worldwide on ecosystem deterioration induced by the development of massive non-indigenous population outbreaks in many coastal sites. Biopollution assessment procedures have been proposed, adopting criteria already used for xenochemical compounds, adjusting them to deal with alien species invasions. On the other hand, prevention and mitigation measures to reduce biopollution impact cannot always mimic the emission countermeasures that have been successfully applied for chemical pollutants. Nevertheless, in order to design comprehensive water-quality criteria, risk assessment and management strategies, based on scientific knowledge, have been developed in a similar way as for chemical pollution. The Mediterranean Sea is a well-known case of alien species invasion, mainly linked to the opening of the Suez Canal. Non-indigenous species have caused well-documented changes in many coastal ecosystems, favoured by concomitant changes induced by global warming and by the heavy load of nutrients and pollutants by various anthropogenic activities. Naval commercial traffic and leisure boats are among the most active vectors of spread for alien species inside the Mediterranean, and also towards other ocean regions. The scientific evidence gathered and summarized in this review suggests that effective management actions, under a precautionary approach, should be put in place in order to control introductions of species in new areas. These management measures are already established in international treaties and national legislations, but should be enforced to prevent the disruption of the dynamic ecological equilibria in the receiving environment and to control the direct adverse effects of alien species.

Screening for High-Risk Marine Invaders in the Hudson Bay Region, Canadian Arctic

The Canadian Arctic is receiving increased ship traffic, largely related to non-renewable resource exploitation and facilitated by climate change. This traffic, much of which arrives in ballast, increases opportunities for the spread of aquatic invasive species (AIS). One of the regions at greatest risk is the Hudson Bay Complex. A horizon scanning exercise was conducted using the semi-quantitative Canadian Marine Invasive Screening Tool (CMIST) to identify AIS of potential concern to the region. This screening-level risk assessment tool, uses documented information to answer questions related to the likelihood and impact of invasion. Species were analyzed by ecological categories (zoobenthos, zooplankton, phytobenthos) and taxonomic groups, with 14 species (out of 31) identified as being of highest relative risk. Crabs, mollusks, macrozooplankton and macroalgae were the taxonomic groups with the highest overall risk scores, through a combination of higher likelihood of invasion and impact scores relative to other taxa. Species that may pose the highest AIS risk are currently mainly distributed on the east and west coasts of the North Atlantic Ocean. Their distributions coincide with source ports and shipping pathways that are well connected to the Hudson Bay Complex. This first horizon scan to identify potential high-risk AIS for the Canadian Arctic incorporated two novel approaches into the CMIST analysis: i) use of the tool to assess two new ecological categories (phytobenthos and zooplankton), and ii) use of averaged CMIST results to interpret general risk patterns of ecological categories. This study is also the first to use CMIST scores to highlight common source regions and connected ports for the highest risk species. In a scenario of climate change and increasing ship traffic, this information can be used to support management actions such as the creation of watch lists to inform adaptive management for preventing AIS establishment, and mitigating associated environmental and economic impacts.

Double trouble: the implications of climate change for biological invasions

The implications of climate change for biological invasions are multifaceted and vary along the invasion process. Changes in vectors and pathways are likely to manifest in changes in transport routes and destinations, together with altered transit times and traffic volume. Ultimately, changes in the nature of why, how, and where biota are transported and introduced will pose biosecurity challenges. These challenges will require increased human and institutional capacity, as well as proactive responses such as improved early detection, adaptation of present protocols and innovative legal instruments. Invasion success and spread are expected to be moderated by the physiological response of alien and native biota to environmental changes and the ensuing changes in biotic interactions. These in turn will likely affect management actions aimed at eradicating, containing, and mitigating invasions, necessitating an adaptive approach to management that is sensitive to potentially unanticipated outcomes.