Functional traits reveal the dominant drivers of long-term community change across a North American Great Lake

Water quality-fisheries tradeoffs in a changing climate underscore the need for adaptive ecosystem-based management

Changes driven by both unanticipated human activities and management actions are creating wicked management landscapes in freshwater and marine ecosystems that require new approaches to support decision-making. By linking a predictive model of nutrient- and temperature-driven bottom hypoxia with observed commercial fishery harvest data from Lake Erie (United States-Canada) over the past century (1928-2022) and climate projections (2030-2099), we show how simple, yet robust models and routine monitoring data can be used to identify tradeoffs associated with nutrient management and guide decision-making in even the largest of aquatic ecosystems now and in the future. Our approach enabled us to assess planned nutrient load reduction targets designed to mitigate nutrient-driven hypoxia and show why they appear overly restrictive based on current fishery needs, indicating tradeoffs between water quality and fisheries management goals. At the same time, our temperature results show that projected climate change impacts on hypoxic extent will require more stringent nutrient regulations in the future. Beyond providing a rare example of bottom hypoxia driving changes in fishery harvests at an ecosystem scale, our study illustrates the need for adaptive ecosystem-based management, which can be informed by simple predictive models that can be readily applied over long time periods, account for tradeoffs across multiple management sectors (e.g., water quality, fisheries), and address ecosystem nonstationarity (e.g., climate change impacts on management targets). Such approaches will be critical for maintaining valued ecosystem services in the many aquatic systems worldwide that are vulnerable to multiple drivers of environmental change.

Feasibility of implementing an integrated long-term database to advance ecosystem-based management in the Laurentian Great Lakes basin

The North American Great Lakes have been experiencing dramatic change during the past half-century, highlighting the need for holistic, ecosystem-based approaches to management. To assess interest in ecosystem-based management (EBM), including the value of a comprehensive public database that could serve as a repository for the numerous physical, chemical, and biological monitoring Great Lakes datasets that exist, a two-day workshop was organized, which was attended by 40+ Great Lakes researchers, managers, and stakeholders. While we learned during the workshop that EBM is not an explicit mission of many of the participating research, monitoring, and management agencies, most have been conducting research or monitoring activities that can support EBM. These contributions have ranged from single-resource (-sector) management to considering the ecosystem holistically in a decision-making framework. Workshop participants also identified impediments to implementing EBM, including: 1) high anticipated costs; 2) a lack of EBM success stories to garner agency buy-in; and 3) difficulty in establishing common objectives among groups with different mandates (e.g., water quality vs. fisheries production). We discussed as a group solutions to overcome these impediments, including construction of a comprehensive, research-ready database, a prototype of which was presented at the workshop. We collectively felt that such a database would offer a cost-effective means to support EBM approaches by facilitating research that could help identify useful ecosystem indicators and management targets and allow for management strategy evaluations that account for risk and uncertainty when contemplating future decision-making.

Twenty-eight years of ecosystem recovery and destabilisation: Impacts of biological invasions and climate change on a temperate river

Most river ecosystems are exposed to multiple anthropogenic stressors affecting the composition and functionality of benthic communities. Identifying main causes and detecting potentially alarming trends in time depends on the availability of long-term monitoring data sets. Our study aimed to improve the knowledge about community effects of multiple stressors that is needed for effective, sustainable management and conservation. We conducted a causal analysis to detect the dominant stressors and hypothesised that multiple stressors, such as climate change and multiple biological invasions, reduce biodiversity and thus endanger ecosystem stability. Using a data set from 1992 to 2019 for the benthic macroinvertebrate community of a 65-km stretch of the upper Elbe river in Germany, we evaluated the effects of alien species, temperature, discharge, phosphorus, pH and abiotic conditional variables on the taxonomic and functional composition of the benthic community and analysed the temporal behaviour of biodiversity metrics. We observed fundamental taxonomic and functional changes in the community, with a shift from collectors/gatherers to filter feeders and feeding opportunists preferring warm temperatures. A partial dbRDA revealed significant effects of temperature and alien species abundance and richness. The occurrence of distinct phases in the development of community metrics suggests a temporally varying impact of different stressors. Taxonomic and functional richness responded more sensitively than the diversity metrics whereas the functional redundancy metric remained unchanged. Especially the last 10-year phase, however, showed a decline in richness metrics and an unsaturated, linear relationship between taxonomic and functional richness, which rather indicates reduced functional redundancy. We conclude that the varying anthropogenic stressors over three decades, mainly biological invasions and climate change, affected the community severely enough to increase its vulnerability to future stressors. Our study highlights the importance of long-term monitoring data and emphasises a careful use of biodiversity metrics, preferably considering also community composition.

Anthropogenic change decouples a freshwater predator's density feedback

Intraspecific interactions within predator populations can affect predator-prey dynamics and community structure, highlighting the need to better understand how these interactions respond to anthropogenic change. To this end, we used a half-century (1969-2018) of abundance and size-at-age data from Lake Erie's walleye (Sander vitreus) population to determine how anthropogenic alterations have influenced intraspecific interactions. Before the 1980s, the length-at-age of younger walleye (ages 1 and 2) negatively correlated with older (age 3 +) walleye abundance, signaling a 'density feedback' in which intraspecific competition limited growth. However, after the early 1980s this signal of intraspecific competition disappeared. This decoupling of the density feedback was related to multiple anthropogenic changes, including a larger walleye population resulting from better fisheries management, planned nutrient reductions to improve water quality and transparency, warmer water temperatures, and the proliferation of a non-native fish with novel traits (white perch, Morone americana). We argue that these changes may have reduced competitive interactions by reducing the spatial overlap between older and younger walleye and by introducing novel prey. Our findings illustrate the potential for anthropogenic change to diminish density dependent intraspecific interactions within top predator populations, which has important ramifications for predicting predator dynamics and managing natural resources.