Legacy effects of anthropogenic disturbances modulate dynamics in the world's coral reefs

A global database on coral recovery following marine heatwaves

Coral reefs support the world's most diverse marine ecosystem and provide invaluable goods and services for millions of people worldwide. They are however experiencing frequent and intensive marine heatwaves that are causing coral bleaching and mortality. Coarse-grained climate models predict that few coral reefs will survive the 3 °C sea-surface temperature rise in the coming century. Yet, field studies show localized pockets of coral survival and recovery even under high-temperature conditions. Quantifying recovery from marine heatwaves is central to making accurate predictions of coral-reef trajectories into the near future. Here we introduce the world's most comprehensive database on coral recovery following marine heatwaves and other disturbances, called Heatwaves and Coral-Recovery Database (HeatCRD) encompassing 29,205 data records spanning 44 years from 12,266 sites, 83 countries, and 160 data sources. These data provide essential information to coral-reef scientists and managers to best guide coral-reef conservation efforts at both local and regional scales.

Past disturbances and local conditions influence the recovery rates of coral reefs

Corals are being increasingly subjected to marine heatwaves. Theory suggests that increasing the intensity of disturbances reduces recovery rates, which inspired us to examine the recovery rates of coral cover following marine heatwaves, cyclones, and other disturbances at 1921 study sites, in 58 countries and three oceans, from 1977 to 2020. In the Atlantic Ocean, coral cover has decreased fourfold since the 1970s, and recovery rates following disturbances have been relatively slow, except in the Antilles. By contrast, reefs in the Pacific and Indian Oceans have maintained coral cover and recovery rates over time. There were positive relationships between rates of coral recovery and prior cyclone and heatwave frequency, and negative relationships between rates of coral recovery and macroalgae cover and distance to shore. A recent increase in the variance in recovery rates in some ecoregions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans suggests that some reefs in those ecoregions may be approaching a phase shift. While marine heatwaves are increasing in intensity and frequency, our results suggest that regional and local conditions influence coral recovery rates, and therefore, effective local management efforts can help reefs recover from disturbances.

Legacy effects of anthropogenic disturbances modulate dynamics in the world's coral reefs

Rapidly changing conditions alter disturbance patterns, highlighting the need to better understand how the transition from pulse disturbances to more persistent stress will impact ecosystem dynamics. We conducted a global analysis of the impacts of 11 types of disturbances on reef integrity using the rate of change of coral cover as a measure of damage. Then, we evaluated how the magnitude of the damage due to thermal stress, cyclones, and diseases varied among tropical Atlantic and Indo-Pacific reefs and whether the cumulative impact of thermal stress and cyclones was able to modulate the responses of reefs to future events. We found that reef damage largely depends on the condition of a reef before a disturbance, disturbance intensity, and biogeographic region, regardless of the type of disturbance. Changes in coral cover after thermal stress events were largely influenced by the cumulative stress of past disturbances and did not depend on disturbance intensity or initial coral cover, which suggests that an ecological memory is present within coral communities. In contrast, the effect of cyclones (and likely other physical impacts) was primarily modulated by the initial reef condition and did not appear to be influenced by previous impacts. Our findings also underscore that coral reefs can recover if stressful conditions decrease, yet the lack of action to reduce anthropogenic impacts and greenhouse gas emissions continues to trigger reef degradation. We uphold that evidence-based strategies can guide managers to make better decisions to prepare for future disturbances.