Different facets of the same niche: Integrating citizen science and scientific survey data to predict biological invasion risk under multiple global change drivers

Can global warming be beneficial for Arctic-alpine orchid species? Outcomes from ecological niche modeling for Chamorchis alpina (L.) Rich. (Orchidaceae)

The disjunct Arctic-alpine plants that persist on isolated mountain sites at the limits of their geographical range are particularly sensitive indicators of climate change effects. Here, we investigated a remarkably fragile plant, the smallest orchid in Europe, Chamorchis alpina. The ecological niche modeling (ENM) approach was employed not only to verify the shift in the range of the studied orchid but also to evaluate the future overlap between this plant population and its pollen vectors, Dasytes alpigradus, Formica lemani and Leptothorax acervorum. Our analyses showed that the bioclimatic preferences of the northern (Scandinavian) populations differed from those of the southern populations located in the Alps and Carpathians. Surprisingly, both C. alpina groups will expand their potential ranges under the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenario, and additional suitable niches will become available for the northern group under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. The Scandinavian populations will face significant habitat loss (36 %) in the SSP5-8.5 projection. The southern group will lose suitable niches under both the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios (33 % and 58 %, respectively). For all pollinators of C. alpina, global warming will be favorable, and all three species will expand their potential ranges under all analyzed climate change scenarios. Our research suggests that a "middle of the road" scenario of climate change (SSP2-4.5), which assumes that socioeconomic factors follow historical trends, will not be harmful to the studied orchid or possibly other elements of Arctic-alpine flora, but all other scenarios that predict increases in CO2 emissions will result in a decreases in the coverage of suitable C. alpina niches, especially in the alpine region. At the same time, an overall expansion of alpine dwarf orchid pollen vectors is predicted, so even within a reduced geographical range, the orchid population will be able to reproduce sexually.

Modeling the species occurrence probability and response of climate change on Himalayan Somalata plant under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

In this study, the current distribution probability of Ephedra gerardiana (Somalata), a medicinally potent species of the Himalayas, was assessed, and its spatial distribution change was forecasted until the year 2100 under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Here, we used the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) on 274 spatially filtered occurrence data points accessed from GBIF and other publications, and 19 bioclimatic variables were used as predictors against the probability assessment. The area under the curve, Continuous Boyce Index, True Skill Statistics, and kappa values were used to evaluate and validate the model. It was observed that the SSP5-8.5, a fossil fuel-fed scenario, saw a maximum habitat decline for E. gerardiana driving its niche towards higher altitudes. Nepal Himalayas witnessed a maximum decline in suitable habitat for the species, whereas it gained area in Bhutan. In India, regions of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir, and Sikkim saw a maximum negative response to climate change by the year 2100. Mean annual temperature, isothermality, diurnal temperature range, and precipitation seasonality are the most influential variables isolated by the model that contribute in defining the species' habitat. The results provide evidence of the effects of climate change on the distribution of endemic species in the study area under different scenarios of emissions and anthropogenic coupling. Certainly, the area of consideration encompasses several protected areas, which will become more vulnerable to increased variability of climate, and regulating their boundaries might become a necessary step to conserve the regions' biodiversity in the future.

Scale-dependent influences of environmental, historical, and spatial processes on taxonomic and functional beta diversity of Japanese bat assemblages

This study investigated the relative influences of environmental, spatial, and historical factors, including the island-specific history of land connectivity, on bat assemblages in the Japanese Archipelago. We collected bat distribution data from 1408 studies and assigned them to Japan's First Standard Grid (approximately 6400 km2). Japanese bat assemblages were analyzed at two scales: the entire Japanese Archipelago comprised 16 islands and exclusively the four main islands. At first, we calculated taxonomic and functional total beta diversity (β total) by Jaccard pairwise dissimilarity and then divided this into turnover (β repl) and richness-difference (β rich) components. We conducted hierarchical clustering of taxonomic beta diversity to examine the influence of the two representative sea straits, Tsugaru and Tokara, which are considered biogeographical borders. Variation partitioning was conducted to evaluate the relative effects of the three factors on the beta diversity. Clustering revealed that the Tokara Strait bordered the two major clades; however, the Tsugaru Strait did not act as a biogeographical border for bats. In the variation partitioning, shared fraction between spatial and historical factors significantly explained taxonomic and functional β total and taxonomic β repl at the entire archipelago scale, but not at the four main islands scale extending only Tsugaru Strait but not Tokara Strait. Pure environmental factors significantly explained functional β total at both scales and taxonomic β total only at the four main islands scale. These results suggest that spatial and historical factors are more pronounced in biogeographical borders, primarily structuring assemblage composition at the entire archipelago scale, especially in taxonomic dimension. However, current environmental factors primarily shape the assemblage composition of Japanese bats at the main island scale. The difference in results between the two scales highlights that the primary processes governing assemblages of both dimensions depend on the quality of the dispersal barriers between terrestrial and aquatic barriers for bats.

Predicting current and future habitat of Indian pangolin (Manis crassicaudata) under climate change

Climate change is among the greatest drivers of biodiversity loss, threatening up to 15-30% of described species by the end of the twenty-first century. We estimated the current suitable habitat and forecasted future distribution ranges of Indian pangolin (Manis crassicaudata) under climate change scenarios. We collected occurrence records of Indian pangolin using burrow counts, remote camera records and previously published literature in Pakistan during 2021-2023. We downloaded bioclimatic data for current (1970-2000) and future (2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100) climate scenarios from the WorldClim database using the Hadley Global Environment Model (HadGEM3-GC31-LL). We used MaxEnt software to predict current and future distributions of Indian pangolin, then computed the amount of habitat lost, gained, and unchanged across periods. We obtained 560 Indian pangolin occurrences overall, 175 during the study, and 385 from our literature search. Model accuracy was very good (AUC = 0.885, TSS = 0.695), and jackknife tests of variable importance showed that the contribution of annual mean temperature (bio1) was greatest (33.4%), followed by the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio-12, 29.3%), temperature seasonality (bio 4, 25.9%), and precipitation seasonality (bio 15, 11.5%). The maxent model predicted that during the current time period (1970-2000) highly suitable habitat for Indian pangolin was (7270 km2, 2.2%), followed by moderately suitable (12,418 km2, 3.7%), less suitable (49,846 km2, 14.8%), and unsuitable habitat (268,355 km2, 79.4%). Highly suitable habitat decreased in the western part of the study area under most SSPs and in the central parts it declined under all SSPs and in future time periods. The predicted loss in the suitable habitat of the Indian pangolin was greatest (26.97%) under SSP 585 followed by SSP 126 (23.67%) during the time 2061-2080. The gain in suitable habitat of Indian pangolin was less than that of losses on average which ranged between 1.91 and 13.11% under all SSPs during all time periods. While the stable habitat of the Indian pangolin ranged between 64.60 and 83.85% under all SSPs during all time periods. Our study provides the current and future habitat ranges of Indian pangolin in the face of a changing climate. The findings of our study could be helpful for policymakers to set up conservation strategies for Indian pangolin in Pakistan.

Distribution and protection of Thesium chinense Turcz. under climate and land use change

Wild medicinal plants are prominent in the field of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM), but their availability is being impacted by human activities and ecological degradation in China. To ensure sustainable use of these resources, it is crucial to scientifically plan areas for wild plant cultivation. Thesium chinense, a known plant antibiotic, has been overharvested in recent years, resulting in a sharp reduction in its wild resources. In this study, we employed three atmospheric circulation models and four socio-economic approaches (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) to investigate the primary environmental factors influencing the distribution of T. chinense. We also examined changes in its suitable area using the Biomod2 package. Additionally, we utilized the PLUS model to project and analyze future land use changes in climate-stable regions for T. chinense. Our planning for wild tending areas of T. chinense was facilitated by the ZONATION software. Over the next century, the climate-stable regions for T. chinense in China is approximately 383.05 × 104 km2, while the natural habitat in this region will progressively decline. Under the current climate conditions, about 65.06% of the habitats in the high suitable areas of T. chinense are not affected by future land use changes in China. Through hotspot analysis, we identified 17 hotspot cities as ideal areas for the wild tending of T. chinense, including 6 core hotspot cities, 6 sub-hotspot cities, and 5 fringe hotspot cities. These findings contribute to a comprehensive research framework for the cultivation planning of T. chinense and other medicinal plants.

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Haloxylon ammodendron under Climate Change Scenarios Using Machine Learning of a Maximum Entropy Model

Haloxylon ammodendron (H. ammodendron) is a second-class protected plant of national significance in China that is known for its growth in desert and semidesert regions, where it serves as a desert ecosystem guardian by playing a substantial role in maintaining ecosystem structure and function. The changing global climate has substantially altered the growth conditions for H. ammodendron. This study focuses on identifying the key variables influencing the distribution of H. ammodendron and determining their potential impact on future distribution. We employed the Maxent model to evaluate the current climate suitability for H. ammodendron distribution and to project its future changes across various shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. Our findings indicate that precipitation during the warmest quarter and precipitation during the wettest month are the most influential variables affecting the potentially suitable habitats of H. ammodendron. The highly suitable habitat area for H. ammodendron currently covers approximately 489,800 km2. The Maxent model forecasts an expansion of highly suitable H. ammodendron habitat under all future SSP scenarios, with the extent of unsuitable areas increasing with greater global warming. The increased highly suitable habitats range from 40% (SSP585) to 80% (SSP126) by the 2070s (2060-2080). Furthermore, our results indicate a continued expansion of desertification areas due to global warming, highlighting the significant role of H. ammodendron in maintaining desert ecosystem stability. This study offers valuable insights into biodiversity preservation and ecological protection in the context of future climate change scenarios.

Modelling habitat suitability for Moringa oleifera and Moringa stenopetala under current and future climate change scenarios

Moringa oleifera Lam and Moringa stenopetala (Baker f.) Cufod are being widely promoted as multipurpose trees across the tropics for their nutritional, medicinal and soil health benefits. Different parts of these species are edible, have therapeutic values and their seeds are used for water purification. Although the two species are similar in many ways, they have contrasting distributions. However, their current promotion is not guided by adequate knowledge of the suitability of the target areas. Information is also scanty on the suitability of habitats for these species under the current and future climate change scenarios. Therefore, the objective of this study was to predict the habitat suitability of M. oleifera and M. stenopetala under current and future climate change scenarios using an ensemble of models assuming four shared socio-economic pathways, namely, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 for 2050 and 2070. The results suggest that areas that are highly suitable for M. oleifera will increase by 0.1% and 3.2% under SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5 by 2050, respectively. By 2070, the area suitable for M. oleifera would likely decrease by 5.4 and 10.6% under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The habitat that is highly suitable for M. stenopetala was predicted to increase by 85-98% under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios by 2050 and by 2070, while suitable areas could increase by up to 143.6% under SSP5-8.5. The most influential bioclimatic variables for both species were mean diurnal temperature range, mean temperature of driest quarter, precipitation of wettest month, and isothermality. Additionally, soil pH, elevation and water holding capacity were influential variables in the distribution of M. oleifera, while soil pH, soil salinity and slope were influential in M. stenopetala distribution. This study has provided baseline information on the current distribution and possible future habitat suitability, which will be helpful to guide formulation of good policies and practices for promoting Moringa species outside their current range.

Biomod2 modeling for predicting the potential ecological distribution of three Fritillaria species under climate change

The Fritillaria species ranked as a well-known traditional medicine in China and has become rare due to excessive harvesting. To find reasonable strategy for conservation and cultivation, identification of new ecological distribution of Fritillaria species together with prediction of those responses to climate change are necessary. In terms of current occurrence records and bioclimatic variables, the suitable habitats for Fritillaria delavayi, Fritillaria taipaiensis, and Fritillaria wabuensis were predicted. In comparison with Maxent and GARP, Biomod2 obtained the best AUC, KAPPA and TSS values of larger than 0.926 and was chosen to construct model. Temperature seasonality was indicated to put the greatest influence on Fritillaria taipaiensis and Fritillaria wabuensis, while isothermality was of most importance for Fritillaria delavayi. The current suitable areas for three Fritillaria species were distributed in south-west China, accounting for approximately 17.72%, 23.06% and 20.60% of China's total area, respectively. During 2021-2100 period, the suitable habitats of F. delavayi and F. wabuensis reached the maximum under SSP585 scenario, while that of F. taipaiensis reached the maximum under SSP126 scenario. The high niche overlap among three Fritillaria species showed correlation with the chemical composition (P ≤ 0.05), while no correlation was observed between niche overlap and DNA barcodes, indicating that spatial distribution had a major influence on chemical composition in the Fritillaria species. Finally, the acquisition of species-specific habitats would contribute to decrease in habitat competition, and future conservation and cultivation of Fritillaria species.