Development and validation of a scoring system to predict progression to acute-on-chronic liver failure in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic hepatitis B

Prognostic value of genome-wide methylation in acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure

AIM

Methylation status of genome varies between pre-acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (pre-ACHBLF), acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF), and chronic hepatitis B patients. This study aimed to find better prognostic indicators for acute-on-chronic liver failure.

METHODS

The level of global genome methylation in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) was detected. The overall genome methylation rate was determined using MethylFlash™ Methylated DNA Quantification Kit(Colorimetric). DNMT activity were measured using DNA Methyltransferase Activity/Inhibition Assay Kit. Gene expression of DNA methyltransferases (DNMT)，methyl-CpG-binding domain (MBD) were detected by qRT-PCR.

RESULTS

The global genome methylation level in ACHBLF group was significantly higher than that in chronic hepatitis B group (P<0.001). There was also obvious difference of the global genome methylation level between pre-ACHBLF group and CHB group (P<0.001). Meanwhile, the activity of DNMT in ACHBLF group was significantly higher than that in chronic hepatitis B group (P<0.001). The mRNA expression level of DNMT1 was higher than that in pre-ACHBLF group (P<0.01) and CHB group (PP<0.001). The mRNA expression level of MBD1 in ACHBLF group was also higher than that in CHB group (P<0.001) and healthy controls (HCs) (P<0.01). And the mRNA expression level of MBD3 and MBD4 in ACHBLF, pre-ACHBLF and CHB group were lower than that in HCs (P<0.001). Meanwhile we observed an opposite change in the mRNA expression level of MECP2. The ROC curve suggested that global genome methylation level was a better prognostic predictor than MELD score in ACHBLF (AUC 0.950, SE 0.0237, 95%CI 0.874-0.986 VS AUC 0.863, SE 0.0439, 95%CI 0.765-0.931, P=0.0429).

CONCLUSIONS

Genome methylation level can be a good biomarker in predicting the severity and prognosis of ACHBLF.

Liver damage parameters and peripheral blood parameters for prediction and diagnosis of intrahepatic cholestasis in pregnancy

OBJECTIVE

Intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy (ICP) manifests in late pregnancy. Elevated serum bile acid is a diagnostic criterion: however, its measurement is troublesome. Prediction of ICP by blood markers is not established. Serum bile acid level is associated with liver damage and inflammation. We hypothesized that the following markers could predict the occurrence of ICP and have diagnostic value for it: Liver damage-indicating scores (albumin-bilirubin [ALBI], Model for End-Stage Liver Disease [MELD], aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio [APRI]) and inflammatory markers (platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio [PLR] and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio [NLR]).

METHODS

Eighty ICP patients and 200 controls were studied. The values of MELD, APRI, ALBI, PLR, and NLR were measured in the 1st trimester and at the time of diagnosis.

RESULTS

Patients with ICP had significantly higher ALBI, MELD, and APRI scores both in the first trimester and at diagnosis. Multivariate logistic regression (MLR) showed that age, ALBI, MELD, and APRI scores were statistically significant (p < 0.05). By receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, the sensitivity of MELD, ALBI, APRI, and NLR in the first trimester was 62%, 73%, 58%, and 29%, respectively, and MELD, ALBI, APRI, and PLR at diagnosis was 28%, 38%, 57%, and 8%, respectively, with a fixed false-positive rate of 10%.

CONCLUSION

This study has demonstrated the usability of the MELD, ALBI, and APRI scores in predicting and diagnosing ICP. They are easy to obtain and might be used in routine practice.

Dual-energy CT quantification of extracellular liver volume predicts short-term disease progression in patients with hepatitis B liver cirrhosis-acute decompensation

BACKGROUND

Liver cirrhosis-acute decompensation (LC-AD) has rapid short-term disease progression and difficult early risk stratification. The purpose is to develop and validate a model based on dual-energy CT quantification of extracellular liver volume (ECV_IC-liver) for predicting the occurrence of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) within 90 days in patients with hepatitis B (HBV) LC-AD.

METHODS

The retrospective study included patients with HBV LC-AD who underwent dual-energy CT scans of the liver from January 2018 to March 2022 and were randomized to training group (215 patients) and validation group (92 patients). The primary outcome was the need for readmission within 90 days due to ACLF. Based on the training group data, independent risk factors for disease progression in clinical and dual-energy CT parameters were identified and modeled by logistic regression analysis. Based on the training and validation groups data, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision analysis curves (DCA) were used to verify the discrimination, calibration, and clinical validity of the nomogram.

RESULTS

Chronic liver failure consortium-acute decompensation score (CLIF-C ADs) (p = 0.008) and ECV_IC-liver (p < 0.001) were independent risk factors for ACLF within 90 days. The AUC of the model combined ECV_IC-liver and CLIF-C ADs were 0.893 and 0.838 in the training and validation groups, respectively. The calibration curves show good agreement between predicted and actual risks. The DCA indicates that the model has good clinical application.

CONCLUSION

The model combined ECV_IC-liver and CLIF-C ADs can early predict the occurrence of ACLF within 90 days in HBV LC-AD patients.

Development of a novel prognostic assessment model for hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure based on reexamination results

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a common clinical emergency and critical illness with rapid progression and poor prognosis. This study aims to establish a more efficient system for the prognostic assessment of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF), which will provide a guiding scheme for subsequent treatment and improve the survival rate of patients. Data on 623 patients with HBV-ACLF were recorded. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine the discriminative abilities of the novel prognostic assessment model in predicting 90-day mortality. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the accuracy of the models. Patients were divided into high- and low-scoring groups based on the best critical values, and survival rates were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and compared by applying log-rank tests. The area under the curve of the new scoring system established using the results of the first reexamination, the results of the first examination, the mean daily change in these results (MDCR) and the results of other first examinations were 0.911 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.889, 0.933), 0.893 (95% CI: 0.868, 0.917), and 0.895 (95% CI: 0.871, 0.919), respectively. The final prognostic scoring system established using the results of the first reexamination was chosen as a novel prognostic assessment model, and patients with lower scores (first reexamination results [FRER] score ≤ 3.65) had longer survival times (P < .001). The prognostic scoring system established using the FRER combined with other examination results can better assess the prognosis of HBV-ACLF at 90 days.

Bacterial Infections Confer a Risk of Progression to Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure in Patients with HBV-Related Compensated Cirrhosis During Severe Hepatitis Flares

INTRODUCTION

The aims of this study were to investigate the risk factors for bacterial infections (BIs) and the association of BIs with the progression to acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related compensated liver cirrhosis and severe hepatitis flares.

METHODS

A total of 237 patients were retrospectively reviewed. Baseline biochemical characteristics were compared between patients with and without the occurrence of BIs and progression to ACLF. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for ACLF before and after 1:1 propensity score matching.

RESULTS

Forty-eight (20.3%) patients progressed to ACLF after admission. Additionally, 136 (57.4%) patients progressed to hepatic decompensation (HD) and 52 (21.9%) patients had BIs before the development of ACLF. Patients with BIs had significantly higher incidences of HD (84.6%) and ACLF (46.2%) than those without BIs (49.7% and 13.0%, respectively; P < 0.01). CTP score (OR 1.660, 95% CI 1.267-2.175) and MELD-Na score (OR 1.082, 95% CI 1.010-1.160) were independent risk factors for BIs. BIs (OR 4.037, 95% CI 1.808-9.061), CLIF-SOFA score (OR 2.007, 95% CI 1.497-2.691), and the MELD-Na score (OR 1.167, 95% CI 1.073-1.260) were independent risk factors for the progression to ACLF. BIs (OR 4.730, 95% CI 1.520-14.718) were also an independent risk factor for the progression to ACLF after propensity score matching.

CONCLUSION

High CTP and MELD-Na scores are risk factors for BIs, and BIs are risk factors for the progression to ACLF in patients with HBV-related compensated liver cirrhosis and severe hepatitis flares.

Downregulation of RIP3 Improves the Protective Effect of ATF6 in an Acute Liver Injury Model

BACKGROUND

Activating transcription factor 6 (ATF6) and receptor-interacting protein 3 (RIP3) are important signaling proteins in endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress and necroptosis, respectively. However, their regulatory relationship and clinical significance are unknown. We investigate the impact of ATF6 on RIP3 expression, and its role in hepatocyte necroptosis in an acute liver injury model.

METHODS

In vivo and in vitro experiments were carried out. LO2 cells were treated with thapsigargin (TG). In vivo, male BALB/c mice were treated with carbon tetrachloride (CCl4, 1 mL/kg) or tunicamycin (TM, 2 mg/kg). Then, the impact of ATF6 or RIP3 silencing on liver injury, hepatocyte necroptosis, and ER stress-related protein expression was examined.

RESULTS

TG induced ER stress and necroptosis and ATF6 and RIP3 expression in LO2 cells. The knockdown of ATF6 significantly decreased RIP3 expression (p < 0.05) and increased ER stress and necroptosis. The downregulation of RIP3 significantly reduced necroptosis and ER stress (p < 0.05). Similar results were observed in CCl4 or the TM-induced mouse model. The knockdown of ATF6 significantly decreased CCl4-induced RIP3 expression and increased liver injury, necroptosis, and ER stress in mice livers (p < 0.05). In contrast, the downregulation of RIP3 significantly reduced liver injury, hepatocyte necroptosis, and ER stress.

CONCLUSIONS

Hepatocyte ATF6 has multiple roles in acute liver injury. It reduces hepatocyte necroptosis via negative feedback regulation of ER stress. In addition, ATF6 can upregulate the expression of RIP3, which is not helpful to the recovery process. However, downregulating RIP3 reduces hepatocyte necroptosis by promoting the alleviation of ER stress. The findings suggest that RIP3 could be a plausible target for the treatment of liver injury.

Diabetes is associated with poor short-term prognosis in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Associations between the disturbances in glucose homeostasis and prognosis in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) remain unclear. This study was conducted to investigate the clinical characteristics of disturbances in glucose homeostasis and their associations with 90-day mortality in patients with HBV-related ACLF.

METHODS

Ninety-six patients with HBV-related ACLF without pre-existing diabetes were prospectively included. Glucose abnormalities were diagnosed based on fasting plasma glucose and oral glucose tolerance test results on admission and during follow-up. Homeostasis model assessment was used to establish insulin resistance (HOMA2-IR), insulin sensitivity (HOMA2-IS) and HOMA2-β-cell function (HOMA2-β). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for death within 90 days after admission.

RESULTS

Among 96 patients with ACLF, 51 (53.1%) had diabetes, 29 (30.2%) had impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), and 17 (17.7%) had hypoglycemia. Patients with diabetes had significantly lower levels of HOMA2-β than did patients with normal glucose tolerance. Of 22 patients with diabetes or IGT and without anti-hyperglycemic treatment, 8 (36.4%) exhibited regression of their glucose metabolism disorders after a follow-up of 32.8 ± 28.8 days, and higher platelet levels were associated with regression. Twenty-five patients (25.0%) with ACLF died of liver failure within 90 days. Diabetes [odds ratio (OR) 3.601, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.342-9.661] and age (OR 1.045, 95% CI 1.010-1.082) were the independent risk factors associated with mortality.

CONCLUSION

Impaired pancreatic β-cell function is related to diabetes development, and diabetes is associated with high mortality in patients with chronic HBV-related ACLF.

A prognostic score for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure treated with plasma exchange-centered artificial liver support system

Artificial liver support system (ALSS) therapy is widely used in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). We aimed to develop a predictive score to identify the subgroups who may benefit from plasma exchange (PE)-centered ALSS therapy. A total of 601 patients were retrospectively enrolled and randomly divided into a derivation cohort of 303 patients and a validation cohort of 298 patients for logistic regression analysis, respectively. Five baseline variables, including liver cirrhosis, total bilirubin, international normalized ratio of prothrombin time, infection and hepatic encephalopathy, were found independently associated with 3-month mortality. A predictive PALS model and the simplified PALS score were developed. The predicative value of PALS score (AUROC = 0.818) to 3-month prognosis was as capable as PALS model (AUROC = 0.839), R score (AUROC = 0.824) and Yue-Meng’ score (AUROC = 0.810) (all p > 0.05), and superior to CART model (AUROC = 0.760) and MELD score (AUROC = 0.765) (all p < 0.05). The PALS score had significant linear correlation with 3-month mortality (R² = 0.970, p = 0.000). PALS score of 0–2 had both sensitivity and negative predictive value of > 90% for 3-month mortality, while PALS score of 6–9 had both specificity and positive predictive value of > 90%. Patients with PALS score of 3–5 who received 3–5 sessions of ALSS therapy had much lower 3-month mortality than those who received 1–2 sessions (32.8% vs. 59.2%, p < 0.05). The more severe patients with PALS score of 6–9 could still benefit from ≥ 6 sessions of ALSS therapy compared to ≤ 2 sessions (63.6% vs. 97.0%, p < 0.05). The PALS score could predict prognosis reliably and conveniently. It could identify the subgroups who could benefit from PE-centered ALSS therapy, and suggest the reasonable sessions.

Trial registration: Chinese Clinical Trial Registry, ChiCTR2000032055. Registered 19th April 2020, http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=52471.

Noninvasive assessment of liver fibrosis for predicting acute-on-chronic liver failure in patients with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of serum markers of liver fibrosis for predicting progression to acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in patients with acute exacerbation (AE) and severe AE (SAE) of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection.

METHODS

The predictive accuracy of aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), Fibrosis-4, Lok index, and Forns index for progression to ACLF was evaluated via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the ROC (AUROC) in 441 and 130 patients with AE and SAE.

RESULTS

After admission, 24 (5.8%) and 25 (19.2%) patients with AE and SAE, respectively, progressed to ACLF. The Lok index was one of the independent risk factors associated with progression to ACLF in patients with AE and SAE. The AUROC of Lok index for diagnosing liver cirrhosis was 0.815 (0.774-0.851) in patients with AE and 0.715 (0.629-0.791) in patients with SAE. The AUROC of Lok index for predicting progression to ACLF in patients with AE and SAE was 0.756 (0.711-0.797) and 0.866 (0.795-0.919), respectively. In patients with AE and SAE, the cut-off values of the Lok index for predicting ACLF were higher and lower, respectively, than those for diagnosing liver cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION

The Lok index has predictive accuracy regarding progression to ACLF in patients with AE and SAE. Different thresholds of liver fibrosis are needed for determining progression to ACLF in patients with different severity of liver injury during acute exacerbation of chronic HBV infection.

Autotaxin: An Early Warning Biomarker for Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure

Background and Aims: Recent accumulating evidence indicates the biological actions of autotaxin (ATX) in liver disease. However, the relationship between ATX and liver failure has not been reported. The present study aimed to examine alterations of serum ATX in acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and evaluate whether serum ATX could be useful as an early warning biomarker of ACLF. Methods: Serum ATX was measured in 50 patients with hepatitis B-related ACLF, 14 patients with alcohol-related ACLF, 11 patients with hepatitis B-related pre-ACLF, 11 patients with alcohol-related Child-Pugh A cirrhosis, 39 patients with hepatitis B-related Child-Pugh A cirrhosis, 26 patients with chronic hepatitis B, and 38 healthy volunteers by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Results: Serum ATX level was significantly higher in the pre-ACLF group than in the Child-Pugh A cirrhosis and chronic hepatitis B groups but lower than in the ACLF group; furthermore, patients with pre-ACLF deteriorated to ACLF had significantly higher serum ATX levels than pre-ACLF patients that did not progress to ACLF. Serum ATX levels were significantly higher among male ACLF patients with preclinical infection, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis or pneumonia, as compared to patients with ACLF but no spontaneous bacterial peritonitis or pneumonia. Serum ATX levels were well correlated with serum biochemical parameters of liver function and model for end-stage liver disease score. Serum ATX ≥ 584.1 ng/mL was a poor prognostic factor for ACLF (hazard ratio of 4.750, 95% confidence interval of 1.106-20.392, p=0.036). Conclusions: Serum ATX level may be a useful early warning biomarker for ACLF.

Artificial liver support system therapy in acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure: Classification and regression tree analysis

Artificial liver support systems (ALSS) are widely used to treat patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). The aims of the present study were to investigate the subgroups of patients with HBV-ACLF who may benefit from ALSS therapy, and the relevant patient-specific factors. 489 ALSS-treated HBV-ACLF patients were enrolled, and served as derivation and validation cohorts for classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. CART analysis identified three factors prognostic of survival: hepatic encephalopathy (HE), prothrombin time (PT), and total bilirubin (TBil) level; and two distinct risk groups: low (28-day mortality 10.2-39.5%) and high risk (63.8-91.1%). The CART model showed that patients lacking HE and with a PT ≤ 27.8 s and a TBil level ≤455 μmol/L experienced less 28-day mortality after ALSS therapy. For HBV-ACLF patients with HE and a PT > 27.8 s, mortality remained high after such therapy. Patients lacking HE with a PT ≤ 27.8 s and TBil level ≤ 455 μmol/L may benefit markedly from ALSS therapy. For HBV-ACLF patients at high risk, unnecessary ALSS therapy should be avoided. The CART model is a novel user-friendly tool for screening HBV-ACLF patient eligibility for ALSS therapy, and will aid clinicians via ACLF risk stratification and therapeutic guidance.

Risk factors for progression to acute-on-chronic liver failure during severe acute exacerbation of chronic hepatitis B virus infection

BACKGROUND

Acute exacerbation in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection results in different severities of liver injury. The risk factors related to progression to hepatic decompensation (HD) and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in patients with severe acute exacerbation (SAE) of chronic HBV infection remain unknown.

AIM

To identify risk factors related to progression to HD and ACLF in compensated patients with SAE of chronic HBV infection.

METHODS

The baseline characteristics of 164 patients with SAE of chronic HBV infection were retrospectively reviewed. Independent risk factors associated with progression to HD and ACLF were identified. The predictive values of our previously established prediction model in patients with acute exacerbation (AE model) and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score in predicting the development of ACLF were evaluated.

RESULTS

Among 164 patients with SAE, 83 (50.6%) had compensated liver cirrhosis (LC), 43 had progression to HD without ACLF, and 29 had progression to ACLF within 28 d after admission. Independent risk factors associated with progression to HD were LC and low alanine aminotransferase. Independent risk factors for progression to ACLF were LC, high MELD score, high aspartate aminotransferase (AST) levels, and low prothrombin activity (PTA). The area under the receiver operating characteristic of the AE model [0.844, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.779-0.896] was significantly higher than that of MELD score (0.690, 95%CI: 0.613-0.760, P < 0.05) in predicting the development of ACLF.

CONCLUSION

In patients with SAE of chronic HBV infection, LC is an independent risk factor for progression to both HD and ACLF. High MELD score, high AST, and low PTA are associated with progression to ACLF. The AE model is a better predictor of ACLF development in patients with SAE than MELD score.