Impact of fibrosis on liver-related event incidence in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: A multicenter observational study

Serum growth differentiation factor 15 is a novel biomarker with high predictive capability for liver cancer occurrence in patients with MASLD regardless of liver fibrosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Although metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) patients with a Fib-4 index >1.3 are recommended for fibrosis evaluation via elastography or biopsy, a more convenient method identifying high-risk populations requiring follow-up is needed. We explored the utility of serum levels of growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF15), a cell stress-responsive cytokine related to metabolic syndrome, for stratifying the risk of clinical events in MASLD patients.

METHODS

Serum GDF15 levels were measured in 518 biopsy-performed MASLD patients, 216 MASLD patients for validation, and 361 health checkup recipients with MASLD.

RESULTS

In the biopsy-MASLD cohort, multivariate analysis indicated that the serum GDF15 level was a risk factor for liver cancer, independent of the fibrosis stage or Fib-4 index. Using a GDF15 cutoff of 1.75 ng/mL based on the Youden index, high-GDF15 patients, regardless of fibrosis status, had a higher liver cancer incidence rate. While patients with a Fib-4 index <1.3 or low-GDF15 rarely developed liver cancer, high-GDF15 patients with a Fib-4 index >1.3 developed liver cancer and decompensated liver events at significantly higher rates and had poorer prognoses. In the validation cohort, high-GDF15 patients had significantly higher incidences of liver cancer and decompensated liver events and poorer prognoses than low-GDF15 patients, whether limited to high-Fib-4 patients. Among health checkup recipients with MASLD, 23.0% had a Fib-4 index >1.3, 2.7% had a Fib-4 index >1.3 and >1.75 ng/mL GDF15.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum GDF15 is a biomarker for liver cancer with high predictive capability and is useful for identifying MASLD patients requiring regular surveillance.

Proteomic analysis of serum extracellular vesicles reveals Fibulin-3 as a new marker predicting liver-related events in MASLD

BACKGROUND

There is a need for novel noninvasive markers for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) to stratify patients at high risk for liver-related events including liver cancer and decompensation. In the present study, we used proteomic analysis of proteins in extracellular vesicles (EVs) to identify new biomarkers that change with fibrosis progression and can predict the development of liver-related events.

METHODS

We analyzed serum EVs from 50 patients with MASLD assessed for liver fibrosis by biopsy and identified proteins that altered with advanced fibrosis. A further evaluation was conducted on another cohort of 463 patients with MASLD with biopsy.

RESULTS

Eight candidate proteins were identified by proteomic analysis of serum EVs. Among them, serum levels of Fibulin-3, Fibulin-1, and Ficolin 1 correlated with their EV levels. In addition, serum Fibulin-3 and serum Fibulin-1 levels changed significantly with advanced fibrosis. Using another cohort with biopsy, we found that the serum Fibulin-3 concentration was significantly greater in those with advanced fibrosis but that the serum Fibulin-1 concentration was not significantly different. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed that a higher Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index and higher serum Fibulin-3 concentration were independent risk factors for liver-related events. When the cutoff value for the serum Fibulin-3 concentration was 6.0 µg/mL according to the Youden index of AUROCs, patients with high serum Fibulin-3 significantly more frequently developed liver-related events than did other patients. Validation using another cohort of 226 patients with clinically diagnosed MASLD confirmed that high serum Fibulin-3 levels are associated with a greater frequency of liver-related events.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum Fibulin-3 was identified as a biomarker for predicting liver-related events in patients with MASLD.

Natural history of lean and non-lean metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease

BACKGROUND

Conflicting evidence regarding the prognosis of lean metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) has raised substantial questions.

AIM

This study aimed to elucidate the prognosis of lean MASLD by conducting a comprehensive analysis of a vast Asian cohort.

METHODS

This study used a nationwide, population-based database and analyzed 2.9 million patients. The primary endpoints were liver-related events (LREs) and cardiovascular events (CVEs) in patients with lean MASLD, non-lean MASLD, and normal liver control groups.

RESULTS

The median observation period was 4.2 years. The 5-year incidence values of LREs in the lean MASLD, non-lean MASLD, and normal liver control groups were 0.065%, 0.039%, and 0.006%, respectively. The LRE risk of lean MASLD was significantly higher than that of normal liver control (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 5.94, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.95-8.92) but comparable to that of non-lean MASLD (aHR: 1.35, 95% CI: 0.87-2.08). By contrast, for CVEs, the non-lean MASLD group exhibited a higher 5-year cumulative incidence rate (0.779%) than the lean MASLD (0.600%) and normal liver control (0.254%) groups. The lean MASLD group had a reduced risk of CVEs compared with the non-lean MASLD group (aHR, 0.73; 95% CI: 0.64-0.84), and comparable risk of CVEs to the normal liver control group (aHR, 0.99; 95% CI: 0.88-1.12).

CONCLUSION

Lean MASLD exhibits a similar LRE risk and a lower CVE risk to non-lean MASLD. Therefore, follow-up and treatment strategies should be tailored to the specific MASLD condition.