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El Sharouni MA, Ahmed T, Varey AHR, Elias SG, Witkamp AJ, Sigurdsson V, Suijkerbuijk KPM, van Diest PJ, Scolyer RA, van Gils CH, Thompson JF, Blokx WAM, Lo SN. Development and Validation of Nomograms to Predict Local, Regional, and Distant Recurrence in Patients With Thin (T1) Melanomas. J Clin Oncol 2021; 39:1243-1252. [PMID: 33600211 DOI: 10.1200/jco.20.02446] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/15/2023] Open
Abstract
PURPOSE Although the prognosis of patients with thin primary cutaneous melanomas (T1, ≤ 1.0 mm) is generally excellent, some develop recurrence. We sought to develop and validate a model predicting recurrences in patients with thin melanomas. METHODS A Dutch population-based cohort (n = 25,930, development set) and a cohort from an Australian melanoma treatment center (n = 2,968, validation set) were analyzed (median follow-up 6.7 and 12.0 years, respectively). Multivariable Cox models were generated for local, regional, and distant recurrence-free survival (RFS). Discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C-statistic for each outcome. Each nomogram performance was evaluated using calibration plots defining low-risk and high-risk groups as the lowest and top 5% of the nomogram risk score, respectively. The nomograms' C-statistics were compared with those of a model including the current American Joint Committee on Cancer staging parameters (T-stage and sentinel node status). RESULTS Local, regional, and distant recurrences were found in 209 (0.8%), 503 (1.9%), and 203 (0.8%) Dutch patients, respectively, and 23 (0.8%), 61 (2.1%), and 75 (2.5%) Australian patients, respectively. C-statistics of 0.79 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.82) for local RFS, 0.77 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.78) for regional RFS, and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.77 to 0.83) for distant RFS were obtained for the development model. External validation showed C-statistics of 0.80 (95% CI, 0.69 to 0.90), 0.76 (95% CI, 0.70 to 0.82), and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.69 to 0.80), respectively. Calibration plots showed a good match between predicted and observed rates. Using the nomogram, the C-statistic was increased by 9%-12% for the development cohort and by 11%-15% for the validation cohort, compared with a model including only T-stage and sentinel node status. CONCLUSION Most patients with thin melanomas have an excellent prognosis, but some develop recurrence. The presented nomograms can accurately identify a subgroup at high risk. An online calculator is available at www.melanomarisk.org.au.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mary-Ann El Sharouni
- Melanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.,Department of Dermatology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Tasnia Ahmed
- Melanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Alexander H R Varey
- Melanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.,Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.,Department of Plastic Surgery, Westmead Hospital, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Sjoerd G Elias
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, University Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Arjen J Witkamp
- Department of Surgery, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Vigfús Sigurdsson
- Department of Dermatology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Karijn P M Suijkerbuijk
- Department of Medical Oncology, University Medical Center Cancer Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Paul J van Diest
- Department of Pathology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Richard A Scolyer
- Melanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.,Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.,Department of Tissue Oncology and Diagnostic Pathology, Royal Prince Alfred Hospital and NSW Health Pathology, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Carla H van Gils
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, University Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - John F Thompson
- Melanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.,Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.,Department of Melanoma and Surgical Oncology, Royal Prince Alfred Hospital, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Willeke A M Blokx
- Department of Pathology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Serigne N Lo
- Melanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.,Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
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[Tumors of the scalp: special aspects of selected examples]. Hautarzt 2014; 65:1030-6. [PMID: 25315428 DOI: 10.1007/s00105-014-3531-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/24/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Tumors of the scalp display some clinical, histological and prognostic characteristics. Early recognition of tumors is hampered by dense hair growth which can result in delayed diagnosis. MATERIAL AND METHODS Taking current literature into consideration atypical fibroxanthoma, cutaneous angiosarcoma, melanoma of the scalp, some adnexal tumors including the proliferating trichilemmal tumor as well as cutaneous metastases from visceral malignancies will be discussed. RESULTS Based on the fact that early scalp tumors are clinically difficult to recognize, they are often diagnosed at a late stage. Angiosarcomas belong to the most aggressive skin tumors and show a rapid growth with unfavorable prognosis. Malignant melanoma on the head has a more serious prognosis in comparison to other locations of the body. Cutaneous metastases are mostly a sign of an advanced tumor stage with a fatal prognosis. The various types of adnexal tumors are mostly benign. In exceptional cases rapid growth and ulceration may be an indicator for the development of an adnexal carcinoma. On the scalp tumors with sweat gland differentiation are more frequent than tumors with follicular differentiation. This shows that the general view that adnexal tumors develop from local adnexal structures is wrong. CONCLUSION Scalp lesions in which the diagnosis is unclear should be biopsied or excised early. Based on the result of the histological examination further therapy can be determined.
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