Excess mortality in winter in Finnish intensive care

Excess winter mortality in Finland, 1971-2019: a register-based study on long-term trends and effect modification by sociodemographic characteristics and pre-existing health conditions

OBJECTIVES

Excess winter mortality is a well-established phenomenon across the developed world. However, whether individual-level factors increase vulnerability to the effects of winter remains inadequately examined. Our aim was to assess long-term trends in excess winter mortality in Finland and estimate the modifying effect of sociodemographic and health characteristics on the risk of winter death.

DESIGN

Nationwide register study.

SETTING

Finland.

PARTICIPANTS

Population aged 60 years and over, resident in Finland, 1971-2019.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Age-adjusted winter and non-winter death rates, and winter-to-non-winter rate ratios and relative risks (multiplicative interaction effects between winter and modifying characteristics).

RESULTS

We found a decreasing trend in the relative winter excess mortality over five decades and a drop in the series around 2000. During 2000-2019, winter mortality rates for men and women were 11% and 14% higher than expected based on non-winter rates. The relative risk of winter death increased with age but did not vary by income. Compared with those living with at least one other person, individuals in institutions had a higher relative risk (1.07, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.08). Most pre-existing health conditions did not predict winter death, but persons with dementia emerged at greater relative risk (1.06, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.07).

CONCLUSIONS

Although winter mortality seems to affect frail people more strongly-those of advanced age, living in institutions and with dementia-there is an increased risk even beyond the more vulnerable groups. Protection of high-risk groups should be complemented with population-level preventive measures.

Seasonality in General Surgery Hospitalizations and Procedures in the US: Workflow Implications

INTRODUCTION

Seasonality has been studied in select conditions treated by surgeons and internists, but is not well understood regarding overall procedural volume in general surgery. Furthermore, much of the literature is limited due to lack of use of seasonal-trend-decomposition analyses.

METHODS

All admissions with general surgery procedures were pooled from NIS 2002-2014, monthly hospitalization rates calculated, and seasonal-trend decomposition performed.

RESULTS

Emergent admissions, accounting for 9% of the average annual incidence, had more prominent seasonality than elective admissions. Inpatient surgical-procedural volume remained relatively stable throughout the year and decreased only in the third quarter. Procedures for acute intra-abdominal conditions and traumas peaked in summer months, while endoscopies, tracheostomies and gastrostomies peaked in winter months.

CONCLUSIONS

Many surgical pathologies and corresponding general-surgery procedures obey circannual patterns. Surgical workforce remains in high demand throughout the year except for fall and winter holidays. Understanding seasonal variation in such demand may be important for staffing and resource planning.

Factors Associated With Mortality in Low-Risk Pediatric Critical Care Patients in The Netherlands

OBJECTIVE

To determine differences between survivors and nonsurvivors and factors associated with mortality in pediatric intensive care patients with low risk of mortality.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Patients were selected from a national database including all admissions to the PICUs in The Netherlands between 2006 and 2012.

PATIENTS

Patients less than 18 years old admitted to the PICU with a predicted mortality risk lower than 1% according to either the recalibrated Pediatric Risk of Mortality or the Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 were included.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

In total, 16,874 low-risk admissions were included of which 86 patients (0.5%) died. Nonsurvivors had more unplanned admissions (74.4% vs 38.5%; p < 0.001), had more complex chronic conditions (76.7% vs 58.8%; p = 0.001), were more often mechanically ventilated (88.1% vs 34.9%; p < 0.001), and had a longer length of stay (median, 11 [interquartile range, 5-32] d vs median, 3 [interquartile range, 2-5] d; p < 0.001) when compared with survivors. Factors significantly associated with mortality were complex chronic conditions (odds ratio, 3.29; 95% CI, 1.97-5.50), unplanned admissions (odds ratio, 5.78; 95% CI, 3.40-9.81), and admissions in spring/summer (odds ratio, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.08-2.58).

CONCLUSIONS

Nonsurvivors in the PICU with a low predicted mortality risk have recognizable risk factors including complex chronic condition and unplanned admissions.

The quality of internal medicine hospital care during summer holiday season

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

The July/August Phenomenon is a period when the quality of care in hospitals is thought to decrease due to summer vacation stand-ins and new staff. The results of studies on the veracity of this claim have been conflicting. This study investigates the situation in internal medicine.

METHODS

Registry data of patients treated in internal medicine wards between 1 July 2000 and 30 November 2009 were obtained and analysed.

RESULTS

There were no differences in mortality during the July admissions compared with those in November when adjusting for age, diagnosis, gender and year [for the overall data risk ratio (RR) = 1.10, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00-1.23, P = 0.06; for the university hospitals RR = 1.10, 95% CI 0.91-1.33, P = 0.34; for the non-university hospitals RR = 1.10, 95% CI 0.97-1.26, P = 0.13]. The duration of admission (overall mean 4.5, standard deviation 6.0) was equal between July and November when adjusted for age, diagnosis, gender and year in all groups (overall data: RR = 1.00, 95% CI 0.99-1.02, P = 0.83; university hospitals RR = 1.02, 95% CI 0.99-1.04, P = 0.13; non-university hospitals RR = 1.00, 95% CI 0.98-1.01, P = 0.67).

CONCLUSIONS

The quality of care in Finnish internal medicine wards in July seems to equal November. Our results do not support the existence of a July Phenomenon in Finland.

ICU service in Taiwan

Background

The aim of the study was to understand the current status of intensive care unit (ICU) in order to optimize the resources achieving the best possible care.

Methods

The study analyzed the status of ICU settings based on the Taiwan National Health Insurance database between March 2004 and February 2009.

Results

A total of 1,028,364 ICU patients were identified. The age was 65 ± 18 years, and 61% of the patients were male. The total ICU bed occupancy rate was 83.8% which went up to 87.3% during winter. The ICU bed occupancy was 94.4% in major medical centers. The ICU stay was 6.5 ± 0.5 days, and the overall ICU mortality rate was 20.2%. The hospital stay was 16.4 ± 16.8 days, and the average cost of total hospital stay was approximately US$5,186 per patient.

Conclusions

The rate of ICU bed occupancy was dependent on seasonal changes, and it reached near full capacity in major medical centers in Taiwan. The ICU beds were distributed based on the categories of hospitals in order to achieve a reasonable cost efficiency. ICU faces many challenges to maintain and improve quality care because of the increasing cost of state-of-the-art technologies and dealing with aging population.

Age of red blood cells and outcome in acute kidney injury

Introduction

Transfusion of red blood cells (RBCs) and, in particular, older RBCs has been associated with increased short-term mortality in critically ill patients. We evaluated the association between age of transfused RBCs and acute kidney injury (AKI), hospital, and 90-day mortality in critically ill patients.

Methods

We conducted a prospective, observational, predefined sub-study within the FINNish Acute Kidney Injury (FINNAKI) study. This study included all elective ICU admissions with expected ICU stay of more than 24 hours and all emergency admissions from September to November 2011. To study the age of RBCs, we classified transfused patients into quartiles according to the age of oldest transfused RBC unit in the ICU. AKI was defined according to KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) criteria.

Results

Out of 1798 patients, 652 received at least one RBC unit. The median [interquartile range] age of the oldest RBC unit transfused was 12 [11-13] days in the freshest quartile and 21 [17-27] days in the quartiles 2 to 4. On logistic regression, RBC age was not associated with the development of KDIGO stage 3 AKI. Patients in the quartile of freshest RBCs had lower crude hospital and 90-day mortality rates compared to those in the quartiles of older blood. After adjustments, older RBC age was associated with significantly increased risk for hospital mortality. Age, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II)-score without age points, maximum Sequental Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score and the total number of transfused RBC units were independently associated with 90-day mortality.

Conclusions

The age of transfused RBC units was independently associated with hospital mortality but not with 90-day mortality or KDIGO stage 3 AKI. The number of transfused RBC units was an independent risk factor for 90-day mortality.

Effects of out-of-hours and winter admissions and number of patients per unit on mortality in pediatric intensive care

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the effect of out-of-hours and winter admissions, and unit size on risk adjusted mortality in pediatric intensive care.

STUDY DESIGN

A national pediatric intensive care clinical audit provided data on over 86000 admissions to 29 pediatric intensive care units (2006-2011). Multivariate logistic regression modeled risk adjusted mortality prior to discharge with out-of-hours (night, weekend, public holiday) admissions, admissions per unit, winter admission, and potential confounders, overall and separately for emergency and planned admissions.

RESULTS

Nearly one-half (47.1%) of admissions were out-of-hours (n = 40948) and 79.2% of those were emergencies. Mortality for all out-of-hours admissions was raised (OR 1.1; 95% CI 1.02-1.2; P = .013), accounted for by planned admissions (OR 1.99; 95% CI 1.67-2.37; P < .001) compared with a reduced risk for emergency admissions (OR 0.93; 95% CI 0.86-1.1; P = .07). Winter admissions were associated with increased risk. Unit size did not affect mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

A child admitted to pediatric intensive care as an out-of-hours emergency is not at increased risk of dying compared with a weekday daytime admission, indicating pediatric intensive care units provide consistent quality of care around the clock. Excess mortality in planned out-of-hours admissions may be explained by admissions following complex operations where risk-adjustment models underestimate the true probability of mortality. In winter, a time of seasonally high bed occupancy, there was an increased mortality risk, an effect which requires further investigation. Despite the different characteristics of small units, the absence of any effect of unit size on mortality suggests that number of admissions per unit does not influence standards of care.

Characteristics of critically ill patients in ICUs in mainland China

OBJECTIVES

We sought to describe the demographics, case mix, interventions, and clinical outcome of critically ill patients admitted to ICUs in Mainland China.

DESIGN

A 2-month (July 1, 2009, to August 31, 2009) prospective, observational cohort study.

SETTING

Twenty-two ICUs in Mainland China.

PATIENTS

Adult patients admitted to participating ICUs during the study period with an ICU length of stay >24 hrs.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Patient characteristics, including demographics, underlying diseases, severity of illness, admission status, complications, intervention and treatment during ICU stay, and clinical outcome were recorded in case report form. The primary outcome measure was all-cause hospital mortality. Independent predictors for hospital mortality were determined with multivariate logistic regression analysis. One thousand two hundred ninety-seven patients met the inclusion criteria for the study, 821 (63.3%) were male, and mean age was 58.5 ± 19.2 yrs. Mean Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score was 18.0 ± 8.1, and mean Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score was 6.5 ± 3.8. One third of the patients were postoperative ICU admissions. Seven hundred sixty-five patients (59.0%) developed infections, followed by severe sepsis or septic shock (484, 37.3%), acute kidney injury (398, 30.7%), and acute lung injury/acute respiratory distress syndrome (351, 27.1%). Mechanical ventilation was used in almost three fourths of the patients, whereas any type of renal replacement therapy was used in 173 patients (13.3%). Hospital mortality was 20.3%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis found that Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, solid tumor, severe sepsis/septic shock, acute lung injury/acute respiratory distress syndrome, and acute kidney injury were independent risk factors for hospital mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Critically ill patients in ICUs in Mainland China exhibited a case mix similar to those of Western countries, although there are significant differences in intensive care unit admission rates and disease severity between Western and Chinese ICUs.

An electronic tool for visual feedback to monitor the adherence to quality indicators in intensive care medicine

Evidence-based medicine is often inadequately implemented in intensive care units (ICU); the aim of this study was to improve its implementation via a technical feedback system, using key performance indicators (KPI). The study evaluated 205 patients treated in a cardiac surgical ICU over a 6-month period (3 months before and 3 months after implementation of the feedback system). KPI adherence rates for sedation, delirium and pain monitoring, and completion of a weaning protocol before and after the implementation of the feedback system, were compared. Adherence rates for pain and delirium monitoring, and implementation of the weaning protocol, were significantly increased by the intervention. Adherence to KPIs for sedation, which were high at baseline, could not be further improved. Daily display of KPI implementation had a positive effect on adherence to standard operating procedures. Adherence to guidelines may be improved by using this feedback system as part of the clinical routine.

[Seasonal influence in characteristics of patients admitted to an intensive care unit]

OBJECTIVE

To investigate seasonal variability in the epidemiology and the outcome of critical illness.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data during the period 2001-2008.

SETTING

Polyvalent intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary hospital in the Canary Islands.

PATIENTS

Adult patients who were hospitalized in the ICU from the Emergency Department, according to the season period (spring, summer, autumn and winter).

PRIMARY VARIABLES OF INTEREST

Demographic data, clinical diagnosis on ICU admission, APACHE II, need of mechanical ventilation and, finally, the mortality were collected.

RESULTS

During the study period, 3,115 patients, coming from the Emergency Department, were hospitalized in our ICU. Of these, 21% were admitted during the summer, an incidence rate that is statistically lower than in other seasons of the year (P<0.001). We did not find any statistically significant differences between the four groups according to the age, type of patients, severity at the moment of admission to the ICU, according to the APACHE II score or in the mortality rate in the ICU. However, significant differences were found in regards to gender. Admission of women during the summer was higher than in winter (33% vs 27%, P=0.037). Average stay in the ICU of patients admitted in the summer was similar to winter (4.9 days vs 5.8 days; P=0.052). Need for mechanical ventilation and days it was required, by diagnostic groups, were similar between the summer and the winter. The multivariate analysis did not show independent variables associated with the seasonal period in which the patients were admitted.

CONCLUSIONS

The stability of our climate implies that this factor does not influence the prognosis of patients who are admitted with critical illness.

Validation of SAPS 3 Admission Score and comparison with SAPS II

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to validate the Simplified Acute Physiology Score SAPS 3 Admission Score (SAPS 3) and to compare its fit with that of SAPS II in an independent sample of patients admitted to a single-centre intensive care unit (ICU).

METHODS

The data for all adult patients consecutively admitted to an eight-bed ICU of a 700-bed university hospital between 1 January 2006 and 2 September 2007 were collected. SAPS II and SAPS 3 were computed, as well as the predicted hospital mortality. The calibration of SAPS II and SAPS 3, according to the general equation (GE), and equations for Southern Europe and Mediterranean countries (SE&MC), and Central and Western Europe (C&WE), were assessed by the goodness-of-fit Hosmer-Lemeshow H and C statistics. Standardized mortality ratios (SMR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were computed for SAPS II and SAPS 3 equations.

RESULTS

Six hundred and eighty-four patients were studied (males 63%). The median age was 73 (quartiles 65-80) years. The fit of SAPS 3 using the C&WE equation (H 13.49, P=0.095; C 12.73, P=0.121) as well as that of SAPS II was acceptable (H 6.02, P=0.644; C12.08, P=0.147), while SAPS 3 GE (H 23.36, P=0.002; C 22.37, P=0.004) and S&MC (H 25.73, P=0.001; C 26.19, P=0.001) did not fit well. SAPS 3 GE, SAPS 3 SE&M Countries and the SAPS II significantly over estimated the mortality. Only 95% CI of SMR for SAPS 3 C&WE included 1 (SMR 0.97; 95% CI 0.89-1.05).

CONCLUSION

Each ICU should identify the SAPS 3 equation most suitable for its case mix. The SAPS II model tended to overestimate the mortality.

Incidence, treatment, and outcome of severe sepsis in ICU-treated adults in Finland: the Finnsepsis study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the incidence and outcome of severe sepsis in the adult Finnish population and to evaluate how treatment guidelines in severe sepsis are applied in clinical practice.

STUDY DESIGN

A prospective study in 24 closed multidisciplinary ICUs in 21 hospitals (4 university and 17 tertiary hospitals) in Finland.

PATIENTS

All 4,500 consecutive ICU admission episodes were screened for severe sepsis during a 4-month period (1 November 2004 - 28 February 2005). The referral population was 3,743,225.

RESULTS

The severe sepsis criteria were fulfilled in 470 patients, who had 472 septic episodes. The incidence of severe sepsis in the ICUs in Finland was 0.38/1000 in the adult population (95% confidence interval 0.34-0.41). The mean ICU length of stay was 8.2+/-8.1 days. ICU, hospital, and 1-year mortality rates were 15.5%, 28.3%, and 40.9%, respectively. Respiratory failure requiring ventilation support was the most common organ failure (86.2%); septic shock was present in 77% and acute renal failure in 20.6% of cases. Activated protein C was given to only 15 of the 55 patients with indication (27%) and low-dose corticosteroids to 150 of 366 (41%) patients with septic shock.

CONCLUSIONS

This prospective study found the incidence of ICU-treated severe sepsis in Finland to be 0.38 per 1,000 of the population. The ICU and hospital mortalities were also lower than earlier reported in United States or Australia. Evidence-based sepsis therapies were not used as often as recommended.