Revisiting Jablonski (1993): cladogenesis and range expansion explain latitudinal variation in taxonomic richness

Evolvability and Macroevolution: Overview and Synthesis

Evolvability is best addressed from a multi-level, macroevolutionary perspective through a comparative approach that tests for among-clade differences in phenotypic diversification in response to an opportunity, such as encountered after a mass extinction, entering a new adaptive zone, or entering a new geographic area. Analyzing the dynamics of clades under similar environmental conditions can (partially) factor out shared external drivers to recognize intrinsic differences in evolvability, aiming for a macroevolutionary analog of a common-garden experiment. Analyses will be most powerful when integrating neontological and paleontological data: determining differences among extant populations that can be hypothesized to generate large-scale, long-term contrasts in evolvability among clades; or observing large-scale differences among clade histories that can by hypothesized to reflect contrasts in genetics and development observed directly in extant populations. However, many comparative analyses can be informative on their own, as explored in this overview. Differences in clade-level evolvability can be visualized in diversity-disparity plots, which can quantify positive and negative departures of phenotypic productivity from stochastic expectations scaled to taxonomic diversification. Factors that evidently can promote evolvability include modularity—when selection aligns with modular structure or with morphological integration patterns; pronounced ontogenetic changes in morphology, as in allometry or multiphase life cycles; genome size; and a variety of evolutionary novelties, which can also be evaluated using macroevolutionary lags between the acquisition of a trait and phenotypic diversification, and dead-clade-walking patterns that may signal a loss of evolvability when extrinsic factors can be excluded. High speciation rates may indirectly foster phenotypic evolvability, and vice versa. Mechanisms are controversial, but clade evolvability may be higher in the Cambrian, and possibly early in the history of clades at other times; in the tropics; and, for marine organisms, in shallow-water disturbed habitats.

Exceptional preservation of mid-Cretaceous marine arthropods and the evolution of novel forms via heterochrony

Evolutionary origins of novel forms are often obscure because early and transitional fossils tend to be rare, poorly preserved, or lack proper phylogenetic contexts. We describe a new, exceptionally preserved enigmatic crab from the mid-Cretaceous of Colombia and the United States, whose completeness illuminates the early disparity of the group and the origins of novel forms. Its large and unprotected compound eyes, small fusiform body, and leg-like mouthparts suggest larval trait retention into adulthood via heterochronic development (pedomorphosis), while its large oar-like legs represent the earliest known adaptations in crabs for active swimming. Our phylogenetic analyses, including representatives of all major lineages of fossil and extant crabs, challenge conventional views of their evolution by revealing multiple convergent losses of a typical "crab-like" body plan since the Early Cretaceous. These parallel morphological transformations may be associated with repeated invasions of novel environments, including the pelagic/necto-benthic zone in this pedomorphic chimera crab.

Approaches to Macroevolution: 1. General Concepts and Origin of Variation

Approaches to macroevolution require integration of its two fundamental components, i.e. the origin and the sorting of variation, in a hierarchical framework. Macroevolution occurs in multiple currencies that are only loosely correlated, notably taxonomic diversity, morphological disparity, and functional variety. The origin of variation within this conceptual framework is increasingly understood in developmental terms, with the semi-hierarchical structure of gene regulatory networks (GRNs, used here in a broad sense incorporating not just the genetic circuitry per se but the factors controlling the timing and location of gene expression and repression), the non-linear relation between magnitude of genetic change and the phenotypic results, the evolutionary potential of co-opting existing GRNs, and developmental responsiveness to nongenetic signals (i.e. epigenetics and plasticity), all requiring modification of standard microevolutionary models, and rendering difficult any simple definition of evolutionary novelty. The developmental factors underlying macroevolution create anisotropic probabilities-i.e., an uneven density distribution-of evolutionary change around any given phenotypic starting point, and the potential for coordinated changes among traits that can accommodate change via epigenetic mechanisms. From this standpoint, "punctuated equilibrium" and "phyletic gradualism" simply represent two cells in a matrix of evolutionary models of phenotypic change, and the origin of trends and evolutionary novelty are not simply functions of ecological opportunity. Over long timescales, contingency becomes especially important, and can be viewed in terms of macroevolutionary lags (the temporal separation between the origin of a trait or clade and subsequent diversification); such lags can arise by several mechanisms: as geological or phylogenetic artifacts, or when diversifications require synergistic interactions among traits, or between traits and external events. The temporal and spatial patterns of the origins of evolutionary novelties are a challenge to macroevolutionary theory; individual events can be described retrospectively, but a general model relating development, genetics, and ecology is needed. An accompanying paper (Jablonski in Evol Biol 2017) reviews diversity dynamics and the sorting of variation, with some general conclusions.

Shaping the Latitudinal Diversity Gradient: New Perspectives from a Synthesis of Paleobiology and Biogeography

An impediment to understanding the origin and dynamics of the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG)-the most pervasive large-scale biotic pattern on Earth-has been the tendency to focus narrowly on a single causal factor when a more synthetic, integrative approach is needed. Using marine bivalves as a model system and drawing on other systems where possible, we review paleobiologic and biogeographic support for two supposedly opposing views, that the LDG is shaped primarily by (a) local environmental factors that determine the number of species and higher taxa at a given latitude (in situ hypotheses) or (b) the entry of lineages arising elsewhere into a focal region (spatial dynamics hypotheses). Support for in situ hypotheses includes the fit of present-day diversity trends in many clades to such environmental factors as temperature and the correlation of extinction intensities in Pliocene bivalve faunas with net regional temperature changes. Support for spatial dynamics hypotheses includes the age-frequency distribution of bivalve genera across latitudes, which is consistent with an out-of-the-tropics dynamic, as are the higher species diversities in temperate southeastern Australia and southeastern Japan than in the tropical Caribbean. Thus, both in situ and spatial dynamics processes must shape the bivalve LDG and are likely to operate in other groups as well. The relative strengths of the two processes may differ among groups showing similar LDGs, but dissecting their effects will require improved methods of integrating fossil data with molecular phylogenies. We highlight several potential research directions and argue that many of the most dramatic biotic patterns, past and present, are likely to have been generated by diverse, mutually reinforcing drivers.

Evolutionary constraints on regional faunas: whom, but not how many

The latitudinal diversity gradient has been hypothesized to reflect past evolutionary dynamics driven by climatic niche conservation during cladogenesis, i.e. the tropical conservatism hypothesis. Here we show that the species diversity of treefrogs (Hylidae) across the western hemisphere is actually independent of evolutionary niche dynamics. We evaluated three key predictions of the tropical conservatism hypothesis that relate to the relationships between climate, species richness and the phylogenetic structure of regional treefrog faunas across the continental Americas. Species composition was dependent on the inability of some lineages to evolve cold tolerance, but the actual number of species in a region was strongly predicted by precipitation, not temperature. Moreover, phylogenetic structure was independent of precipitation. Thus, species in low-richness areas were no more closely related than species in highly diverse regions. These results provide no support for the tropical conservatism hypothesis. Instead, they show that regional species composition and richness are constrained by different climatic components, demonstrating that global biodiversity gradients can be independent of niche stasis during cladogenesis.

The latitudinal biodiversity gradient through deep time

Today, biodiversity decreases from equatorial to polar regions. This is a fundamental pattern governing the distribution of extant organisms, the understanding of which is critical to predicting climatically driven biodiversity loss. However, its causes remain unresolved. The fossil record offers a unique perspective on the evolution of this latitudinal biodiversity gradient (LBG), providing a dynamic system in which to explore spatiotemporal diversity fluctuations. Deep-time studies indicate that a tropical peak and poleward decline in species diversity has not been a persistent pattern throughout the Phanerozoic, but is restricted to intervals of the Palaeozoic and the past 30 million years. A tropical peak might characterise cold icehouse climatic regimes, whereas warmer greenhouse regimes display temperate diversity peaks or flattened gradients.

Out of the tropics, but how? Fossils, bridge species, and thermal ranges in the dynamics of the marine latitudinal diversity gradient

Latitudinal diversity gradients are underlain by complex combinations of origination, extinction, and shifts in geographic distribution and therefore are best analyzed by integrating paleontological and neontological data. The fossil record of marine bivalves shows, in three successive late Cenozoic time slices, that most clades (operationally here, genera) tend to originate in the tropics and then expand out of the tropics (OTT) to higher latitudes while retaining their tropical presence. This OTT pattern is robust both to assumptions on the preservation potential of taxa and to taxonomic revisions of extant and fossil species. Range expansion of clades may occur via "bridge species," which violate climate-niche conservatism to bridge the tropical-temperate boundary in most OTT genera. Substantial time lags (∼5 Myr) between the origins of tropical clades and their entry into the temperate zone suggest that OTT events are rare on a per-clade basis. Clades with higher diversification rates within the tropics are the most likely to expand OTT and the most likely to produce multiple bridge species, suggesting that high speciation rates promote the OTT dynamic. Although expansion of thermal tolerances is key to the OTT dynamic, most latitudinally widespread species instead achieve their broad ranges by tracking widespread, spatially-uniform temperatures within the tropics (yielding, via the nonlinear relation between temperature and latitude, a pattern opposite to Rapoport's rule). This decoupling of range size and temperature tolerance may also explain the differing roles of species and clade ranges in buffering species from background and mass extinctions.

Molecular evolution and the latitudinal biodiversity gradient

Species density is higher in the tropics (low latitude) than in temperate regions (high latitude) resulting in a latitudinal biodiversity gradient (LBG). The LBG must be generated by differential rates of speciation and/or extinction and/or immigration among regions, but the role of each of these processes is still unclear. Recent studies examining differences in rates of molecular evolution have inferred a direct link between rate of molecular evolution and rate of speciation, and postulated these as important drivers of the LBG. Here we review the molecular genetic evidence and examine the factors that might be responsible for differences in rates of molecular evolution. Critical to this is the directionality of the relationship between speciation rates and rates of molecular evolution.

Is regional species diversity bounded or unbounded?

Two conflicting hypotheses have been proposed to explain large-scale species diversity patterns and dynamics. The unbounded hypothesis proposes that regional diversity depends only on time and diversification rate and increases without limit. The bounded hypothesis proposes that ecological constraints place upper limits on regional diversity and that diversity is usually close to its limit. Recent evidence from the fossil record, phylogenetic analysis, biogeography, and phenotypic disparity during lineage diversification suggests that diversity is constrained by ecological processes but that it is rarely asymptotic. Niche space is often unfilled or can be more finely subdivided and still permit coexistence, and new niche space is often created before ecological limits are reached. Damped increases in diversity over time are the prevalent pattern, suggesting the need for a new 'damped increase hypothesis'. The damped increase hypothesis predicts that diversity generally increases through time but that its rate of increase is often slowed by ecological constraints. However, slowing due to niche limitation must be distinguished from other possible mechanisms creating similar patterns. These include sampling artifacts, the inability to detect extinctions or declines in clade diversity with some methods, the distorting effects of correlated speciation-extinction dynamics, the likelihood that opportunities for allopatric speciation will vary in space and time, and the role of undetected natural enemies in reducing host ranges and thus slowing speciation rates. The taxonomic scope of regional diversity studies must be broadened to include all ecologically similar species so that ecological constraints may be accurately inferred. The damped increase hypothesis suggests that information on evolutionary processes such as time-for-speciation and intrinsic diversification rates as well as ecological factors will be required to explain why regional diversity varies among times, places and taxa.

Latitude, elevation and the tempo of molecular evolution in mammals

Faster rates of microevolution have been recorded for plants and marine foraminifera occupying warmer low latitude environments relative to those occurring at higher latitudes. By contrast, because this rate heterogeneity has been attributed to a relationship between thermal habit and mutagenesis via a body temperature linkage, it has been assumed that microevolution in mammals should not also vary systematically with environmental temperature. However, this assumption has not previously been empirically examined. In this study, we tested for a thermally mediated influence on the tempo of microevolution among mammals using a comprehensive global dataset that included 260 mammal species, from 10 orders and 29 families. In contrast to theoretical predictions, we found that substitution rates in the cytochrome b gene have been substantially faster for species living in warmer latitudes and elevations relative to sister species living in cooler habitats. These results could not be attributed to factors otherwise thought to influence rates of microevolution, such as body mass differentials or genetic drift. Instead, the results indicate that the tempo of microevolution among mammals is either responding directly to the thermal environment or indirectly via an ecological mechanism such as the 'Red Queen' effect.

Generation of Earth's first-order biodiversity pattern

The first-order biodiversity pattern on Earth today and at least as far back as the Paleozoic is the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), a decrease in richness of species and higher taxa from the equator to the poles. LDGs are produced by geographic trends in origination, extinction, and dispersal over evolutionary timescales, so that analyses of static patterns will be insufficient to reveal underlying processes. The fossil record of marine bivalve genera, a model system for the analysis of biodiversity dynamics over large temporal and spatial scales, shows that an origination and range-expansion gradient plays a major role in generating the LDG. Peak origination rates and peak diversities fall within the tropics, with range expansion out of the tropics the predominant spatial dynamic thereafter. The origination-diversity link occurs even in a "contrarian" group whose diversity peaks at midlatitudes, an exception proving the rule that spatial variations in origination are key to latitudinal diversity patterns. Extinction rates are lower in polar latitudes (> or =60 degrees ) than in temperate zones and thus cannot create the observed gradient alone. They may, however, help to explain why origination and immigration are evidently damped in higher latitudes. We suggest that species require more resources in higher latitudes, for the seasonality of primary productivity increases by more than an order of magnitude from equatorial to polar regions. Higher-latitude species are generalists that, unlike potential immigrants, are adapted to garner the large share of resources required for incumbency in those regions. When resources are opened up by extinctions, lineages spread chiefly poleward and chiefly through speciation.

The tropics: cradle, museum or casino? A dynamic null model for latitudinal gradients of species diversity

Several ecological and evolutionary hypotheses have been proposed to explain the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), but a general model for this conspicuous pattern remains elusive. Mid-domain effect (MDE) models generate gradients of species diversity by randomly placing the geographic ranges of species in one- or two-dimensional spaces, thus excluding both evolutionary processes and the effect of contemporary climate. Traditional MDE models are statistical and static because they determine the size of ranges either randomly or based on empirical frequency distributions. Here we present a simple dynamic null model for the LDG that simulates stochastic processes of range shifts, extinction and speciation. The model predicts higher species diversity and higher extinction and speciation rates in the tropics, and a strong influence of range movements in shaping the LDG. These null expectations should be taken into consideration in studies aimed at understanding the many factors that generate latitudinal diversity gradients.