Schluter PJ, Hamilton GJ, Deely JM, Ardagh MW. Impact of integrated health system changes, accelerated due to an earthquake, on emergency department attendances and acute admissions: a Bayesian change-point analysis.
BMJ Open 2016;
6:e010709. [PMID:
27169741 PMCID:
PMC4874100 DOI:
10.1136/bmjopen-2015-010709]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2015] [Revised: 04/10/2016] [Accepted: 04/14/2016] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE
To chart emergency department (ED) attendance and acute admission following a devastating earthquake in 2011 which lead to Canterbury's rapidly accelerated integrated health system transformations.
DESIGN
Interrupted time series analysis, modelling using Bayesian change-point methods, of ED attendance and acute admission rates over the 2008-2014 period.
SETTING
ED department within the Canterbury District Health Board; with comparison to two other district health boards unaffected by the earthquake within New Zealand.
PARTICIPANTS
Canterbury's health system services ∼500 000 people, with around 85 000 ED attendances and 37 000 acute admissions per annum.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES
De-seasoned standardised population ED attendance and acute admission rates overall, and stratified by age and sex, compared before and after the earthquake.
RESULTS
Analyses revealed five global patterns: (1) postearthquake, there was a sudden and persisting decrease in the proportion of the population attending the ED; (2) the growth rate of ED attendances per head of population did not change between the pre-earthquake and postearthquake periods; (3) postearthquake, there was a sudden and persisting decrease in the proportion of the population admitted to hospital; (4) the growth rate of hospital admissions per head of the population declined between pre-earthquake and postearthquake periods and (5) the most dramatic reduction in hospital admissions growth after the earthquake occurred among those aged 65+ years. Extrapolating from the projected and fitted deseasoned rates for December 2014, ∼676 (16.8%) of 4035 projected hospital admissions were avoided.
CONCLUSIONS
While both necessarily and opportunistically accelerated, Canterbury's integrated health systems transformations have resulted in a dramatic and sustained reduction in ED attendances and acute hospital admissions. This natural intervention experiment, triggered by an earthquake, demonstrated that integrated health systems with high quality out-of-hospital care models are likely to successfully curb growth in acute hospital demand, nationally and internationally.
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