The timeliness of notification of clinically suspected cases of dengue imported into north Queensland

Timely surveillance and temporal calibration of disease response against human infectious diseases

Background

Disease surveillance and response are critical components of epidemic preparedness. The disease response, in most cases, is a set of reactive measures that follow the outcomes of the disease surveillance. Hence, timely surveillance is a prerequisite for an effective response.

Methodology/principal findings

We apply epidemiological soundness criteria in combination with the Latent Influence Point Process and time-to-event models to construct a disease spread network. The network implicitly quantifies the fertility (whether a case leads to secondary cases) and reproduction (number of secondary cases per infectious case) of the cases as well as the size and generations (of the infection chain) of the outbreaks. We test our approach by applying it to historic dengue case data from Australia. Using the data, we empirically confirm that high morbidity relates positively with delay in disease response. Moreover, we identify what constitutes timely surveillance by applying various thresholds of disease response delay to the network and report their impact on case fertility, reproduction, number of generations and ultimately, outbreak size. We observe that enforcing a response delay threshold of 5 days leads to a large average reduction across all parameters (occurrence 87%, reproduction 83%, outbreak size 80% and outbreak generations 47%), whereas extending the threshold to 10 days, in comparison, significantly limits the effectiveness of the response actions. Lastly, we identify the components of the disease surveillance system that can be calibrated to achieve the identified thresholds.

Conclusion

We identify practically achievable, timely surveillance thresholds (on temporal scale) that lead to an effective response and identify how they can be satisfied. Our approach can be utilized to provide guidelines on spatially and demographically targeted resource allocation for public awareness campaigns as well as to improve diagnostic abilities and turn-around times for the doctors and laboratories involved.

From Incriminating Stegomyia fasciata to Releasing Wolbachia pipientis: Australian Research on the Dengue Virus Vector, Aedes aegypti, and Development of Novel Strategies for Its Surveillance and Control

Globally, the dengue viruses (DENVs) infect approximately 300 million people annually. Australia has a history of epidemic dengue, with outbreaks in the early decades of the twentieth century responsible for tens of thousands of cases. Seminal experiments conducted by Australian scientists during these outbreaks were the first to incriminate Aedes aegypti as a major vector of dengue viruses. One hundred years later, Australian scientists are playing a lead role in the development of surveillance and suppression strategies that target this mosquito species. Surveillance of Ae. aegypti populations and their associated dengue risk was greatly improved by understanding the contribution of key premises, key containers, and cryptic larval habitats to mosquito productivity, and, more recently, the development of novel adult traps. In terms of mosquito control, targeted indoor residual pyrethroid spraying and community-based biological control utilizing predatory copepods can significantly reduce Ae. aegypti populations. The release of Ae. aegypti transinfected with the virus-blocking bacterium, Wolbachia, provides a promising strategy for limiting DENV transmission. These diverse strategies developed by Australian scientists have the potential to alleviate the burden of dengue in the future, whether it is at the local level or as part of a country-wide program.

Epidemiology of dengue in a high-income country: a case study in Queensland, Australia

Background

Australia is one of the few high-income countries where dengue transmission regularly occurs. Dengue is a major health threat in North Queensland (NQ), where the vector Aedes aegypti is present. Whether NQ should be considered as a dengue endemic or epidemic region is an ongoing debate. To help address this issue, we analysed the characteristics of locally-acquired (LA) and imported dengue cases in NQ through time and space. We describe the epidemiology of dengue in NQ from 1995 to 2011, to identify areas to target interventions. We also investigated the timeliness of notification and identified high-risk areas.

Methods

Data sets of notified cases and viraemic arrivals from overseas were analysed. We developed a time series based on the LA cases and performed an analysis to capture the relationship between incidence rate and demographic factors. Spatial analysis was used to visualise incidence rates through space and time.

Results

Between 1995 and 2011, 93.9% of reported dengue cases were LA, mainly in the ‘Cairns and Hinterland’ district; 49.7% were males, and the mean age was 38.0 years old. The sources of imported cases (6.1%) were Indonesia (24.6%), Papua New Guinea (23.2%), Thailand (13.4%), East Timor (8.9%) and the Philippines (6.7%), consistent with national data. Travellers importing dengue were predominantly in the age groups 30–34 and 45–49 years old, whereas the age range of patients who acquired dengue locally was larger. The number of LA cases correlated with the number of viraemic importations. Duration of viraemia of public health importance was positively correlated with the delay in notification. Dengue incidence varied over the year and was typically highest in summer and autumn. However, dengue activity has been reported in winter, and a number of outbreaks resulted in transmission year-round.

Conclusions

This study emphasizes the importance of delay in notification and consequent duration of viraemia of public health importance for dengue outbreak duration. It also highlights the need for targeted vector control programmes and surveillance of travellers at airports as well as regularly affected local areas. Given the likely increase in dengue transmission with climate change, endemicity in NQ may become a very real possibility.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1756-3305-7-379) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Detecting and responding to a dengue outbreak: evaluation of existing strategies in country outbreak response planning

Background. Dengue outbreaks are occurring with increasing frequency and intensity. Evidence-based epidemic preparedness and effective response are now a matter of urgency. Therefore, we have analysed national and municipal dengue outbreak response plans. Methods. Thirteen country plans from Asia, Latin America and Australia, and one international plan were obtained from the World Health Organization. The information was transferred to a data analysis matrix where information was extracted according to predefined and emerging themes and analysed for scope, inconsistencies, omissions, and usefulness. Findings. Outbreak response planning currently has a considerable number of flaws. Outbreak governance was weak with a lack of clarity of stakeholder roles. Late timing of responses due to poor surveillance, a lack of combining routine data with additional alerts, and lack of triggers for initiating the response weakened the functionality of plans. Frequently an outbreak was not defined, and early response mechanisms based on alert signals were neglected. There was a distinct lack of consideration of contextual influences which can affect how an outbreak detection and response is managed. Conclusion. A model contingency plan for dengue outbreak prediction, detection, and response may help national disease control authorities to develop their own more detailed and functional context specific plans.

An explosive epidemic of DENV-3 in Cairns, Australia

From November 2008-May 2009 Cairns Queensland Australia was struck by an explosive epidemic of DENV-3 that exceeded the capacity of highly skilled dengue control team to control it. We describe the environmental, virological and entomological factors associated with this outbreak to better understand the circumstances leading to its occurrence. Patient interviews, serological results and viral sequencing strongly suggest that the imported index case was infected in Kalimantan, Indonesia. A delay in notification of 27 days from importation of the index case until Queensland Health was notified of dengue transmission allowed the virus to amplify and spread unchecked through November 2008. Unseasonably warm weather, with daily mean temperatures exceeding 30°C, occurred in late November and would have shortened the extrinsic incubation period of the virus and enhanced transmission. Analysis of case movements early in the outbreak indicated that the total incubation period was as low as 9–11 days. This was supported by laboratory vector competence studies that found transmission by Aedes aegypti occurred within 5 days post exposure at 28°C. Effective vector competence rates calculated from these transmission studies indicate that early transmission contributed to the explosive dengue transmission observed in this outbreak. Collections from BG sentinel traps and double sticky ovitraps showed that large populations of the vector Ae. aegypti occurred in the transmission areas from November – December 2008. Finally, the seasonal movement of people around the Christmas holiday season enhanced the spread of DENV-3. These results suggest that a strain of DENV-3 with an unusually rapid transmission cycle was able to outpace vector control efforts, especially those reliant upon delayed action control such as lethal ovitraps.

Airport sentinel surveillance and entry quarantine for dengue infections following a fever screening program in Taiwan

Background

Dengue has not reached an endemic status in Taiwan; nevertheless, we have implemented a fever screening program at airports for the early detection of febrile passengers with a dengue infection. This study is intended to assess the performance of the airport screening procedures for dengue infection.

Methods

We analyzed data from the national surveillance system of the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control. We included the imported dengue cases reported by sentinel airports and clinics as well as the domestic cases from 2007–2010.

Results

Approximately 44.9% (95%CI: 35.73-54.13%) of the confirmed imported dengue cases with an apparent symptom (febrile) in the viremic stage were detected via the airport fever screening program, with an estimated positive predictive value of 2.36% (95% CI: 0.96- 3.75%) and a negative predictive value > 99.99%. Fluctuations in the number of the symptomatic imported dengue cases identified in the airports (X) were associated with the total number of imported dengue cases (Y) based on a regression analysis of a biweekly surveillance (i.e., n = 104, R²_X:Y = 0.61, P < 0.005). Additionally, the fluctuating patterns in the cumulative numbers of the imported dengue cases (X) with a 1–2 month lead time (t) was in parallel with that of the domestic dengue cases (Y) based on a consecutive 4-year surveillance (i.e., n = 48, R²_X(t-1):Y = 0.22, R²_X(t-2):Y = 0.31, P < 0.001) from 2007–2010.

Conclusions

A moderate sensitivity of detecting dengue at the airports examined in this study indicated some limitations of the fever screening program for the prevention of importation. The screening program could assist in the rapid triage for self-quarantine of some symptomatic dengue cases that were in the viremic stage at the borders and contribute to active sentinel surveillance; however, the blocking of viral transmission to susceptible populations (neighbors or family) from all of the viremic travelers, including those with or without symptoms, is critical to prevent dengue epidemics. Therefore, the reinforcement of mosquito bite prevention and household vector control in dengue-endemic or dengue-competent hotspots during an epidemic season is essential and highly recommended.

Quantifying the spatial dimension of dengue virus epidemic spread within a tropical urban environment

Background

Dengue infection spread in naive populations occurs in an explosive and widespread fashion primarily due to the absence of population herd immunity, the population dynamics and dispersal of Ae. aegypti, and the movement of individuals within the urban space. Knowledge on the relative contribution of such factors to the spatial dimension of dengue virus spread has been limited. In the present study we analyzed the spatio-temporal pattern of a large dengue virus-2 (DENV-2) outbreak that affected the Australian city of Cairns (north Queensland) in 2003, quantified the relationship between dengue transmission and distance to the epidemic's index case (IC), evaluated the effects of indoor residual spraying (IRS) on the odds of dengue infection, and generated recommendations for city-wide dengue surveillance and control.

Methods and Findings

We retrospectively analyzed data from 383 DENV-2 confirmed cases and 1,163 IRS applications performed during the 25-week epidemic period. Spatial (local k-function, angular wavelets) and space-time (Knox test) analyses quantified the intensity and directionality of clustering of dengue cases, whereas a semi-parametric Bayesian space-time regression assessed the impact of IRS and spatial autocorrelation in the odds of weekly dengue infection. About 63% of the cases clustered up to 800 m around the IC's house. Most cases were distributed in the NW-SE axis as a consequence of the spatial arrangement of blocks within the city and, possibly, the prevailing winds. Space-time analysis showed that DENV-2 infection spread rapidly, generating 18 clusters (comprising 65% of all cases), and that these clusters varied in extent as a function of their distance to the IC's residence. IRS applications had a significant protective effect in the further occurrence of dengue cases, but only when they reached coverage of 60% or more of the neighboring premises of a house.

Conclusion

By applying sound statistical analysis to a very detailed dataset from one of the largest outbreaks that affected the city of Cairns in recent times, we not only described the spread of dengue virus with high detail but also quantified the spatio-temporal dimension of dengue virus transmission within this complex urban environment. In areas susceptible to non-periodic dengue epidemics, effective disease prevention and control would depend on the prompt response to introduced cases. We foresee that some of the results and recommendations derived from our study may also be applicable to other areas currently affected or potentially subject to dengue epidemics.

Global trends in population growth and human redistribution and movement have reshaped the map of dengue transmission risk, exposing a significant proportion of the world's population to the threat of dengue epidemics. Knowledge on the relative contribution of vector and human movement to the widespread and explosive nature of dengue epidemic spread within an urban environment is limited. By analyzing a very detailed dataset of a dengue epidemic that affected the Australian city of Cairns we performed a comprehensive quantification of the spatio-temporal dimensions of dengue virus epidemic transmission and propagation within a complex urban environment. Space and space-time analysis and models allowed derivation of detailed information on the pattern of introduction and epidemic spread of dengue infection within the urban space. We foresee that some of the results and recommendations derived from our study may also be applicable to many other areas currently affected or potentially subject to dengue epidemics.

Best practices in dengue surveillance: a report from the Asia-Pacific and Americas Dengue Prevention Boards

BACKGROUND

Dengue fever is a virus infection that is spread by the Aedes aegypti mosquito and can cause severe disease especially in children. Dengue fever is a major problem in tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We invited dengue experts from around the world to attend meetings to discuss dengue surveillance. We reviewed literature, heard detailed reports on surveillance programs, and shared expert opinions.

RESULTS

Presentations by 22 countries were heard during the 2.5 day meetings. We describe the best methods of surveillance in general, the stakeholders in dengue surveillance, and the steps from mosquito bite to reporting of a dengue case to explore how best to carry out dengue surveillance. We also provide details and a comparison of the dengue surveillance programs by the presenting countries.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The experts provided recommendations for achieving the best possible data from dengue surveillance accepting the realities of the real world (e.g., limited funding and staff). Their recommendations included: (1) Every dengue endemic country should make reporting of dengue cases to the government mandatory; (2) electronic reporting systems should be developed and used; (3) at minimum dengue surveillance data should include incidence, hospitalization rates, deaths by age group; (4) additional studies should be completed to check the sensitivity of the system; (5) laboratories should share expertise and data; (6) tests that identify dengue virus should be used in patients with fever for four days or less and antibody tests should be used after day 4 to diagnose dengue; and (7) early detection and prediction of dengue outbreaks should be goals for national surveillance systems.

Dengue fever: diagnosis and treatment

Dengue fever is a common tropical infection. This acute febrile illness can be a deadly infection in cases of severe manifestation, causing dengue hemorrhagic shock. In this brief article, I will summarize and discuss the diagnosis and treatment of this disease. For diagnosis of dengue, most tropical doctors make use of presumptive diagnosis; however, the definite diagnosis should be based on immunodiagnosis or viral study. Focusing on treatment, symptomatic and supportive treatment is the main therapeutic approach. The role of antiviral drugs in the treatment of dengue fever has been limited, but is currently widely studied.

Forecasting dengue vaccine demand in disease endemic and non-endemic countries

BACKGROUND

A dengue vaccine in large-scale clinical trials could be licensed in several years. We estimated the potential vaccine demand for different introduction strategies in 54 dengue-endemic countries and for travelers from non-endemic countries to enable vaccine producers and public health agencies to better prepare for timely utilization of the vaccine.

RESULTS

Under our assumptions, 2.4-3.5 billion dengue vaccine doses would be needed in the first five years after introduction with >75% delivered in the public sector. Among 20 potential 'early-adopter' countries, an estimated 0.9-1.4 billion doses would be needed for the same introduction approach. For the private sector, covering 10% of children and 30% of adults an estimated 443-664 million doses would be required. In non-endemic countries, travelers could use an estimated 59-89 million vaccine doses, although the present product profile would make it unlikely to be able to administer vaccine in a timely manner.

METHODS

Calculations were based on 2015-2020 population projections for endemic countries in Asia and the Americas with populations >100,000. For dengue-endemic countries we assumed country-wide routine 12-23 month-old vaccination and catch-up vaccination among 2-14 year-old children employing a 2 or 3-dose schedule. Assumptions on expected vaccination coverage were based on country-specific public, private and travelers' sectors immunization performance.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results project an upper-limit estimate of vaccine demand, with actual demand depending on country priorities, cost and product profile. Given the potential for a dengue vaccine, policymakers in endemic and nonendemic countries should consider appropriate implementation strategies in advance of licensure.

Multiple outbreaks of dengue serotype 2 in north Queensland, 2003/04

OBJECTIVES

To describe the various investigations and responses to multiple outbreaks of dengue serotype 2 that occurred in north Queensland in 2003/04.

METHODS

Details about each case were collated so as to target mosquito-control responses including control of mosquito breeding sites, interior spraying of selected premises, and a novel 'lure and kill' approach using lethal ovitraps. Phylogenetic analyses were undertaken to determine the genetic relatedness of viruses isolated during the outbreaks.

RESULTS

Except for a two-month hiatus in mid-2003, the outbreaks continued for 16 months and included approximately 900 confirmed cases, with three severe cases and one death. The available evidence suggests that the mosquito-control measures were effective, but delays in recognising the outbreaks in Cairns and the Torres Strait coupled with intense mosquito breeding contributed to the extensive nature of the outbreaks. Phylogenetic analyses showed that there had been only two major outbreaks, one that spread from Cairns to Townsville, the other from the Torres Strait to Cairns; both were initiated by viraemic travellers from Papua New Guinea.

CONCLUSIONS

Phylogenetic analyses were essential in understanding how the outbreaks were related to each other, and in demonstrating that dengue had not become endemic. Further innovative approaches to dengue surveillance and mosquito control in north Queensland are necessary.

IMPLICATIONS

Dengue outbreaks have become more frequent and more severe in north Queensland in recent years, raising the possibility that dengue viruses could become endemic in the region leading to outbreaks of dengue haemorrhagic fever.

Travel medicine: an Australian perspective

Travel medicine is emerging as a new multidisciplinary specialty area catering for an increasing number of travellers worldwide. Travel health advisers are engaged in the provision of pre-travel health advice, chemoprophylaxis against travel-related diseases, traveller's medical kits, and post-travel assessments and eradication treatment for various travel-related diseases. They are also in a key position to liaise with public health authorities on possible imported disease risks. In terms of risk assessment and provision of preventive measures, vector-borne diseases, in particular malaria and the arboviral diseases, stand out as major concerns for travellers, however, common problems, such as travellers' diarrhoea and respiratory tract infection, also need to be addressed. Travel and aviation medicine have many linkages, especially in terms of fitness to fly and dealing with problems that may arise in travellers due to physiological and psychological stresses of travel. In the face of recent terrorism and conflict, travel advisories have assumed great importance in travellers planning. Travel insurance remains an important safety net for travellers, which provides coverage for medical and dental treatment abroad as well as an emergency assistance service, which may include aeromedical evacuation.

Entomological investigations in a focus of dengue transmission in Cairns, Queensland, Australia, by using the sticky ovitraps

Sticky ovitraps (patent pending) were used to sample female Aedes aegypti (L.) weekly in a focus of dengue activity in Cairns, Queensland, Australia. In February 2003, transmission of dengue virus serotype 2 began in the suburb of Parramatta Park, peaking in mid-March 2003. This suburb features many older, unscreened houses with high populations of Ae. aegypti. Highest densities (2-3.5 females per trap per week) were obtained during peak dengue transmission (January and February) before mosquito control was initiated. Beginning in late March, female Ae. aegypti collected in sticky ovitraps were tested for dengue viral RNA by using a TaqMan reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction assay. Dengue viral RNA was detected in six pools of Ae. aegypti collected in late March. The highest minimum infection rate was 116/1000 mosquitoes. After the initiation of larval control (containers treated with S-methoprene or lambda-cyhalothrin) and adult control (interior harborage sites sprayed with lambda-cyhalothrin) in early March, trap collections dropped to <0.5 per trap per week, and no virus was detected in trapped mosquitoes. Human cases subsequently dropped from a high of seven cases per day in mid-March to only sporadic cases in late April, with the final reported onset of 7 May. Sticky ovitraps have potential as a monitoring device for gravid Ae. aegypti and can be used to assess control efficacy and dengue virus activity. A sticky ovitrap index (mean number of female Ae. Aegypti per trap per week) could be useful in gauging the risk of dengue transmission.

Knowledge of disease notification among doctors in government hospitals in Benin City, Edo State, Nigeria

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Notifiable diseases are conditions where regular, frequent and timely reporting of individual cases is considered necessary for the prevention and control of the disease. They can be classified into immediate, routine, international, and occupational notifiable diseases. Despite its importance, notification suffers some setbacks, as shown by worldwide studies. This study was carried out from August to November 1999 to assess the knowledge of disease notification among doctors at the University of Benin Teaching Hospital and Central Hospital, Benin City, Edo State, Nigeria.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional study design was used, and a self-administered questionnaire, which was pretested, was used to collect data.

SETTING

All doctors from the University of Benin Teaching Hospital and Central Hospital, Benin City, Edo State, Nigeria were included in the study.

PARTICIPANTS

In total, 134 doctors participated in the study.

MAIN RESULT

Only 11.9% of doctors had a good knowledge of disease notification. Thirty-one (23.1%) doctors knew where to obtain notification forms, and 32 (23.9%) knew how to complete these forms.

CONCLUSION

Knowledge of disease notification among doctors in these major institutions is poor. It has therefore been recommended that quarterly seminars should be conducted to update doctors' knowledge and serve as reminders about disease notification.

Importation of dengue by soldiers returning from East Timor to north Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND

Soldiers based in Townsville, Australia, returned from East Timor following peacekeeping operations during the wet season of 1999 to 2000. This represented the potential to import dengue virus into north Queensland, a dengue receptive area of Australia. This article seeks to outline the measures taken by the Australian Defence Force (ADF) to prevent local transmission and to present the outcomes.

METHODS

Soldiers returning to north Queensland were provided with education on dengue fever and in the fortnight before return, their living areas were subjected to intensive vector control measures, in order to reduce the risk of acquisition of dengue. They were further encouraged to present early with any febrile illness following their return to Townsville. Provisionally diagnosed dengue cases were notified to the state public health authorities immediately and cases were isolated until suitable vector control programs were implemented or the potentially viremic period exceeded. Serologic and virologic investigations were undertaken to identify the passage and probable serotype or confirm the presence and serotype of dengue virus.

RESULTS

Nine serologically confirmed cases of dengue were identified as viremic in north Queensland. Six cases were identified as arising from dengue serotype 2, two were from serotype 3, and one case was ill defined. No dengue cases have been reported in the local population 4 months following these ADF cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Local outbreaks of dengue fever have occurred in north Queensland following the importation of dengue virus in returned travelers. The successful prevention of local transmission in these circumstances was contributed to by early notification of cases and prevention of transmission through isolation of cases and collaboration between ADF and state and local public health authorities in vector control. The management of potentially viremic returning service personnel represents a future challenge for the ADF.

An epidemic of dengue 3 in far north Queensland, 1997-1999

OBJECTIVES

To describe an epidemic of dengue type 3 that occurred in far north Queensland in 1997-1999 and its influence on the further development of dengue prevention and control strategies.

DESIGN

Epidemiological and laboratory investigation of cases, entomological surveys and phylogenetic analysis of dengue virus isolates.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Numbers and characteristics of confirmed cases; Breteau Index (BI; number of containers breeding Aedes aegypti per 100 premises); effect of control measures on mosquito populations; genetic homology of epidemic virus with other dengue virus isolates.

RESULTS

The epidemic lasted 70 weeks and comprised 498 confirmed cases in three towns (Cairns, Port Douglas and Mossman); 101 patients (20%) were admitted to hospital. Median interval between symptom onset and notification was seven days (range, 0-53 days), and cumulative duration of viraemia of public health significance was 2,072 days. BIs in affected areas were high, particularly in Mossman (45) and Port Douglas (31). Control measures significantly reduced mosquito populations (assessed as number of ovitraps containing Ae. aegypti eggs and mean number of eggs per trap [P< 0.05 for both]). However, transmission persisted in several foci, in part due to undetected waterfilled containers breeding Ae. aegypti. The epidemic virus belonged to serotype 3; phylogenetic analysis suggested it was imported from Thailand.

CONCLUSIONS

The epidemic had greater morbidity than other recent Queensland epidemics of dengue and was harder to control, necessitating substantial revision of the Dengue Fever Management Plan for North Queensland. The epidemic's severity supports the hypothesis that dengue viruses from South East Asia are more virulent than others.