Missed epidemics and missing links: international birth cohort trends in multiple sclerosis

Global, regional, and national burden of multiple sclerosis from 1990 to 2019: Findings of global burden of disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

The global rising prevalence and incidence of multiple sclerosis (MS) has been reported during the past decades. However, details regarding the evolution of MS burden have not been fully studied. This study aimed to investigate the global, regional, and national burden and temporal trends in MS incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019 using the age-period-cohort analysis.

METHODS

We performed a secondary comprehensive analysis of incidence, deaths, and DALYs of MS by calculating the estimated annual percentage change from 1990 to 2019 obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. The independent age, period, and birth cohort effects were evaluated by an age-period-cohort model.

RESULTS

In 2019, there were 59,345 incident MS cases and 22,439 MS deaths worldwide. The global number of incidences, deaths, and DALYs of MS followed an upward trend, whereas the age-standardized rates (ASR) slightly declined from 1990 to 2019. High socio-demographic index (SDI) regions had the highest ASR of incidences, deaths, and DALYs in 2019, while the rate of deaths and DALYs in medium SDI regions are the lowest. Six regions which include high-income North America, Western Europe, Australasia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe had higher ASR of incidences, deaths, and DALYs than other regions in 2019. The age effect showed that the relative risks (RRs) of incidence and DALYs reached the peak at ages 30-39 and 50-59, respectively. The period effect showed that the RRs of deaths and DALYs increased with the period. The cohort effect showed that the later cohort has lower RRs of deaths and DALYs than the early cohort.

CONCLUSION

The global cases of incidence, deaths, and DALYs of MS have all increased, whereas ASR has declined, with different trends in different regions. High SDI regions such as European countries have a substantial burden of MS. There are significant age effects for incidence, deaths, and DALYs of MS globally, and period effects and cohort effects for deaths and DALYs.

The changing course of multiple sclerosis: rising incidence, change in geographic distribution, disease course, and prognosis

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review provides a brief update of new research findings on the changing epidemiology, disease course, and prognosis of multiple sclerosis (MS).

RECENT FINDINGS

Evidence not only continues to support the female predominance in incidence and prevalence of the disease but also supports an increase in incidence of MS in geographic areas that were previously considered to be low incidence for the disease.

SUMMARY

An increased interest in population-based registries and databases will provide more valid epidemiological measures and observational studies conducted in well-defined study populations. Such studies are crucial for an accurate description of both changing prognosis of MS and differential characteristics of the various MS phenotypes.

Hypothesis: Multiple sclerosis is caused by three-hits, strictly in order, in genetically susceptible persons

Multiple Sclerosis is a chronic, progressive and debilitating neurological disease which, despite extensive study for over 100 years, remains of enigmatic aetiology. Drawn from the epidemiological evidence, there exists a consensus that there are environmental (possibly infectious) factors that contribute to disease pathogenesis that have not yet been fully elucidated. Here we propose a three-tiered hypothesis: 1) a clinic-epidemiological model of multiple sclerosis as a rare late complication of two sequential infections (with the temporal sequence of infections being important); 2) a proposal that the first event is helminthic infection with Enterobius Vermicularis, and the second is Epstein Barr Virus infection; and 3) a proposal for a testable biological mechanism, involving T-Cell exhaustion for Epstein-Barr Virus protein LMP2A. We believe that this model satisfies some of the as-yet unexplained features of multiple sclerosis epidemiology, is consistent with the clinical and neuropathological features of the disease and is potentially testable by experiment. This model may be generalizable to other autoimmune diseases.

Sex ratio in multiple sclerosis mortality over 65 years; an age-period-cohort analysis in Norway

Increasing female: male ratio in multiple sclerosis (MS) has been assigned to cohort effects, with females in more recent birth cohorts possibly being more exposed or vulnerable to environmental risk factors than males. We collected MS mortality data in Norway from 1951 to 2015 from The Norwegian Cause of Death registry. Age-Period-Cohort analysis was conducted using log-linear Poisson models, including sex interaction terms. MS was registered as the underlying, contributing or direct cause in 6060 deaths. MS associated mortality remained stable with a slight preponderance among males until after 1980, and have since increased preferentially among females. Throughout the study period the mean annual increase was 1.25% for females and 0.3% for males (p < 0.0001). Age-period-cohort analysis revealed limited evidence of cohort effects for the gender differences; the best fitting model only included gender-age and gender-period interaction terms. The period effect evened out for males in the last three decades but increased for females, especially among the oldest age-groups. In conclusion, the increased female: male mortality ratio in MS associated mortality is driven mainly by increased mortality among females in the three last decades, particularly in the older age groups. It is best explained by disproportional period effects, providing evidence of time-varying external factors including improved access to diagnosis among females.

Similar birth-cohort patterns in Crohn's disease and multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

The etiology of Crohn's disease and multiple sclerosis is unknown. Genetic susceptibility and environmental factors are believed to play a role in both diseases.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the long-term time trends of the two diseases and thus gain insight about their etiology.

METHODS

We analyzed mortality data of Crohn's disease and multiple sclerosis from Canada, England, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the United States during the past 60 years. Age-period-cohort (APC) analyses based on logit models served to disentangle the separate influences of age, period, and cohort effects on the overall time trends.

RESULTS

The long-term time trends of Crohn's disease and multiple sclerosis have been shaped by strikingly similar birth-cohort patterns. In both diseases alike, mortality increased in all generations born prior to 1910. It peaked among generations born between 1910 and 1930 and then declined in all subsequent generations. Similar birth-cohort patterns of Crohn's disease and multiple sclerosis were found in each country analyzed separately.

CONCLUSION

The birth-cohort patterns indicate that the development of Crohn's disease and multiple sclerosis is influenced by exposure to environmental risk factors during an early period of life. These environmental risk factors may be similar or even identical in Crohn's disease and multiple sclerosis.

Is a hypothetical melanoma-like neuromelanin the underlying factor essential for the aetiopathogenesis and clinical manifestations of multiple sclerosis?

Background

Multiple sclerosis (MS) has undergone a significant increase in incidence in the industrialised nations over the last 130 years. Changing environmental factors, possibly infections or a lack of or altered timing of them, determine the prevalence of the disease. Although a plethora of aetiological factors, clearly evident in a group of children with MS, appear relevant, there may nevertheless be a single factor essential for the aetiopathogenesis and clinical manifestation of MS.

Description and discussion

This hitherto unknown factor is postulated to be a ‘melanoma-like neuromelanin’ (MLN) dependent on the activation of a gene for syncytin-1. An involvement of MLN could explain the diverse findings in the epidemiology, immunology and pathology of MS, requiring a consideration of a complex infectious background, the human leucocyte antigens, as well as cosmic radiation causing geomagnetic disturbances, vitamin D deficiency, smoking, and lower levels of uric acid.

Summary

In principle, the MLN-based concept is a unifying one, capable of explaining a number of characteristics of the disease. To date, MLN has not been addressed in studies on MS and future work will need to be done on human patients, as there is little or no neuromelanin (the precursor of MLN) in the animals used as experimental models in the study of MS.