Management of women with abnormal cervical cytology: treatment patterns and associated costs in England and Wales

Assessing the Health and Economic Outcomes of a 9-Valent HPV Vaccination Program in the United Kingdom

Background: The United Kingdom (UK) switched from using the 4-valent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine (Gardasil®) to the 9-valent vaccine (Gardasil 9®) in 2021. Objective: To estimate and compare the health and economic outcomes of 2 HPV vaccination programs in the UK targeting girls and boys aged 12-13 years from the perspective of the UK National Health Service. The 2 vaccination strategies were (1) universal vaccination 4-valent (UV4V), using the 4-valent HPV vaccine (4vHPV), and (2) universal vaccination 9-valent (UV9V), using the 9-valent HPV vaccine (9vHPV). Methods: A deterministic heterosexual compartmental disease transmission model was used to track health and economic outcomes over a 100-year time horizon. Outcomes were discounted at an annual rate of 3.5% and 1.5%. All costs were adjusted to 2020 British pounds (£). Health outcomes were measured in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and the summary results were presented as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (£/QALY gained) when comparing UV4V with UV9V. Results: Using the same vaccine coverage for both programs, the total cumulative cases of HPV-related health outcomes tracked over the 100-year horizon indicated that the relative number of cases averted (UV9V vs UV4V) ranged from 4% (anal male cancers and deaths) to 56% (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia [CIN1]). Assuming that 9vHPV cost £15.18 more than 4vHPV (a cost differential based on discounted list prices), the estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was £8600/QALY gained when discounted at 3.5%, and £3300/QALY gained when discounted at 1.5%. The estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from the sensitivity analyses remained <£28000/QALY over a wide range of parameter inputs and demonstrated that disease utilities, discount rate, and vaccine efficacy were the 3 most influential parameters. Discussion: Consistent with other published studies, the results from this study found that the 9vHPV vaccine prevented a substantial number of cases when compared with the 4vHPV vaccine and was highly cost-effective. Conclusions: These results demonstrate that replacing universal 4vHPV with 9vHPV can prevent a substantial additional number of HPV-related cases/deaths (in both women and men) and remain cost-effective over a range of 9vHPV price premiums.

Cost-effectiveness of a stepwise intervention to promote adherence to cervical cancer screening

BACKGROUND

Cervical cancer screening is effective in reducing mortality, but adherence is generally low. We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of a stepwise intervention to promote adherence to cervical cancer screening in Portugal.

METHODS

We developed a decision tree model to compare the cost-effectiveness of four competing interventions to increase adherence to cervical cancer screening: (i) a written letter (standard-of-care); (ii) automated short message service text messages (SMS)/phone calls/reminders; (iii) automated SMS/phone calls/reminders + manual phone calls; (iv) automated SMS/phone calls/reminders + manual phone calls + face-to-face interviews. The main outcome measure was cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) measured over a 5-year time horizon. Costs were calculated from the societal and provider perspectives.

RESULTS

From the societal perspective, the optimal strategy was automated SMS/phone calls/reminders, below a threshold of €8171 per QALY; above this and below €180 878 per QALY, the most cost-effective strategy was automated SMS/phone calls/reminders + manual phone calls and above this value automated SMS/phone calls/reminders + manual phone calls + face-to-face interviews. From the provider perspective, the ranking of the three strategies in terms of cost-effectiveness was the same, for thresholds of €2756 and €175 463 per QALY, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of one time the national gross domestic product (€22 398/QALY), automated SMS/phone calls/reminders + manual phone calls is a cost-effective strategy to promote adherence to cervical cancer screening, both from the societal and provider perspectives.

Use of the Aptima mRNA high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) assay compared to a DNA HR-HPV assay in the English cervical screening programme: a decision tree model based economic evaluation

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the impact of using the Aptima messenger RNA (mRNA) high-risk human papilloma virus (HR-HPV) assay versus a DNA HR-HPV assay in a primary HPV cervical screening programme.

DESIGN

One hypothetical cohort followed for 3 years through HPV primary cervical screening.

SETTING

England.

PARTICIPANTS

A hypothetical cohort of women aged 25-65 years tested in the National Health Service (NHS) Cervical Screening Programme (CSP) for first call or routine recall testing.

METHODS

A decision tree parameterised with data from the CSP (2017/18) and the HORIZON study. Uncertainty analyses were conducted using data from the FOCAL and GAST studies, other DNA HPV tests in addition to one-way and probabilistic sensitivity and scenarios analyses, to test the robustness of results.

INTERVENTIONS

Aptima mRNA HR-HPV assay and a DNA HR-HPV assay (cobas 4800 HPV assay).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary: total colposcopies and total costs for the cohort. Secondary: total HPV and cytology tests, number lost to follow-up.

RESULTS

At baseline for a population of 2.25 million women, an estimated £15.4 million (95% credibility intervals (CI) £6.5 to 24.1 million) could be saved and 28 009 (95% CI 27 499 to 28 527) unnecessary colposcopies averted if Aptima mRNA assays are used instead of a DNA assay, with 90 605 fewer unnecessary HR-HPV and 253 477 cytology tests performed. These savings are due to a lower number of HPV positive samples in the mRNA arm. When data from other primary HPV screening trials were compared, results indicated that using the Aptima mRNA assay generated cost savings and reduced testing in every scenario.

CONCLUSION

Using the Aptima mRNA assay versus a DNA assay would almost certainly yield cost savings and reduce unnecessary testing and procedures, benefiting the NHS and women in the CSP.

Clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of primary cytology versus human papillomavirus testing for cervical cancer screening in England

OBJECTIVES

In England, human papillomavirus (HPV) testing is to replace cytological screening by 2019-2020. We conducted a model-based economic evaluation to project the long-term clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of routine cytology versus HPV testing.

METHODS

An individual-based model of HPV acquisition, natural history, and cervical cancer screening was used to compare cytological screening and HPV testing with cytology triage for women aged 25-64 years (with either 3- or 5-year screening intervals for women aged under 50 years). The model was fitted to data from England's National Health Service Cervical Screening Programme. Both clinical and economic outcomes were projected to inform cost-effectiveness analyses.

RESULTS

HPV testing is likely to decrease annual cytology testing (by 2.76 million), cervical cancer incidence (by 290 cases), and health system costs (by £13 million). It may increase the number of colposcopies, although this could be reduced without leading to more cancers compared with primary cytology by increasing the interval between screens to 5 years. The impact in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) depends on the quality of life weight given to colposcopies versus cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

England's move from cytology to HPV screening may potentially be life-saving and cost-effective. Cost-effectiveness can be improved further by extending the interval between screens or using alternative triage methods such as partial or full genotyping.

Adjunctive colposcopy technologies for assessing suspected cervical abnormalities: systematic reviews and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Dynamic Spectral Imaging System (DySIS)map (DySIS Medical Ltd, Edinburgh, UK) and ZedScan (Zilico Limited, Manchester, UK) can be used adjunctively with conventional colposcopy, which may improve the detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and cancer.

OBJECTIVES

To systematically review the evidence on the diagnostic accuracy, clinical effectiveness and implementation of DySISmap and ZedScan as adjuncts to standard colposcopy, and to develop a cost-effectiveness model.

METHODS

Four parallel systematic reviews were performed on diagnostic accuracy, clinical effectiveness issues, implementation and economic analyses. In January 2017 we searched databases (including MEDLINE and EMBASE) for studies in which DySISmap or ZedScan was used adjunctively with standard colposcopy to detect CIN or cancer in women referred to colposcopy. Risk of bias was assessed with the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS)-2 tool. Summary estimates of diagnostic accuracy were calculated using bivariate and other regression models when appropriate. Other outcomes were synthesised narratively. A patient-level state-transition model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of DySISmap and ZedScan under either human papillomavirus (HPV) triage or the HPV primary screening algorithm. The model included two types of clinics ['see and treat' and 'watchful waiting' (i.e. treat later after confirmatory biopsy)], as well as the reason for referral (low-grade or high-grade cytological smear). Sensitivity and scenario analyses were undertaken.

RESULTS

Eleven studies were included in the diagnostic review (nine of DySISmap and two of ZedScan), three were included in the clinical effectiveness review (two of DySISmap and one of ZedScan) and five were included in the implementation review (four of DySISmap and one of ZedScan). Adjunctive DySISmap use was found to have a higher sensitivity for detecting CIN grade 2+ (CIN 2+) lesions [81.25%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 72.2% to 87.9%] than standard colposcopy alone (57.91%, 95% CI 47.2% to 67.9%), but with a lower specificity (70.40%, 95% CI 59.4% to 79.5%) than colposcopy (87.41%, 95% CI 81.7% to 91.5%). (Confidential information has been removed.) The base-case cost-effectiveness results showed that adjunctive DySISmap routinely dominated standard colposcopy (it was less costly and more effective). The only exception was for high-grade referrals in a watchful-waiting clinic setting. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for ZedScan varied between £272 and £4922 per quality-adjusted life-year. ZedScan also dominated colposcopy alone for high-grade referrals in see-and-treat clinics. These findings appeared to be robust to a wide range of sensitivity and scenario analyses.

LIMITATIONS

All but one study was rated as being at a high risk of bias. There was no evidence directly comparing ZedScan with standard colposcopy. No studies directly compared DySIS and ZedScan.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of adjunctive DySIS increases the sensitivity for detecting CIN 2+, so it increases the number of high-grade CIN cases that are detected. However, it also reduces specificity, so that more women with no or low-grade CIN will be incorrectly judged as possibly having high-grade CIN. The evidence for ZedScan was limited, but it appears to increase sensitivity and decrease specificity compared with colposcopy alone. The cost-effectiveness of both adjunctive technologies compared with standard colposcopy, under both the HPV triage and primary screening algorithms, appears to be favourable when compared with the conventional thresholds used to determine value in the NHS.

FUTURE WORK

More diagnostic accuracy studies of ZedScan are needed, as are studies assessing the diagnostic accuracy for women referred to colposcopy as part of the HPV primary screening programme.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017054515.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Changing inequalities in cervical cancer: modeling the impact of vaccine uptake, vaccine herd effects, and cervical cancer screening in the post-vaccination era

BACKGROUND

Inequalities in cervical cancer may be increased following mass vaccination against the human papillomavirus (HPV) if girls with low vaccine uptake also have low future participation in cervical cancer screening. We evaluated how vaccine uptake distribution affects inequalities in squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) incidence between groups with different screening participation.

METHODS

We used an individual-based transmission dynamic model of HPV infection and disease (HPV-ADVISE). Females were stratified by routine screening frequency. We modeled the impact of vaccination on SCC incidence rate differences (absolute inequality) and incidence rate ratios (relative inequality) between women who have routine screening intervals of <5 years (frequently screened), ≥5 years (underscreened), and who are never screened. We compared simulations with uniform vaccine uptake with scenarios with unequal vaccine uptake, in which never and underscreened women have lower vaccine uptake than frequently screened women.

RESULTS

Absolute SCC inequalities between groups with different screening rates were predicted to decrease after vaccination, even when women with the lowest screening participation had the lowest vaccine uptake. Herd effects helped reduce absolute inequalities when vaccine uptake was unequal. Conversely, relative SCC inequalities remained unchanged or increased after vaccination. Results were robust to different overall vaccination coverages and sexual mixing scenarios.

CONCLUSION

Though mass HPV vaccination is predicted to substantially decrease SCC incidence rates, never screened women will still have the highest disease burden after vaccination.

IMPACT

To reduce both absolute and relative SCC inequalities, public health initiatives will need to address inequalities in both vaccine uptake and in cervical cancer screening participation.

Accuracy of detection of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia using electrical impedance spectroscopy with colposcopy

Objective

To determine if electrical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) improves the diagnostic accuracy of colposcopy when used as an adjunct.

Design

Prospective, comparative, multi-centre clinical study.

Setting

Three colposcopy clinics: two in England and one in Ireland.

Population

Women referred with abnormal cytology.

Methods

In phase 1, EIS was assessed against colposcopic impression and histopathology of the biopsies taken. In phase 2, a probability index and cut-off value for the detection of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (HG–CIN, i.e. grade CIN2+) was derived to indicate sites for biopsy. EIS data collection and analyses were performed in real time and blinded to the clinician. The phase-2 data were analysed using different cut-off values to assess performance of EIS as an adjunct.

Main outcome measure

Histologically confirmed HG–CIN (CIN2+).

Results

A total of 474 women were recruited: 214 were eligible for analysis in phase 1, and 215 were eligible in phase 2. The average age was 33.2 years (median age 30.3 years, range 20–64 years) and 48.5% (208/429) had high-grade cytology. Using the cut-off from phase 1 the accuracy of colposcopic impression to detect HG–CIN when using EIS as an adjunct at the time of examination improved the positive predictive value (PPV) from 78.1% (95% CI 67.5–86.4) to 91.5%. Specificity was also increased from 83.5% (95% CI 75.2–89.9) to 95.4%, but sensitivity was significantly reduced from 73.6% (95% CI 63.0–82.5) to 62.1%, and the negative predictive value (NPV) was unchanged. The positive likelihood ratio for colposcopic impression alone was 4.46. This increased to 13.5 when EIS was used as an adjunct. The overall accuracy of colposcopy when used with EIS as an adjunct was assessed by varying the cut-off applied to a combined test index. Using a cut-off set to give the same sensitivity as colposcopy in phase 2, EIS increased the PPV to detect HG–CIN from 53.5% (95% CI 45.0–61.8) to 67%, and specificity increased from 38.5% (95% CI 29.4–48.3) to 65.1%. NPV was not significantly increased. Alternatively, applying a cut-off to give the same specificity as colposcopy alone increased EIS sensitivity from 88.5% (95% CI 79.9–94.4) to 96.6%, and NPV from 80.8% (95% CI 67.5–90.4) to 93.3%. PPV was not significantly increased. The receiver operator characteristic (ROC) to detect HG–CIN had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.887 (95% CI 0.840–0.934).

Conclusions

EIS used as an adjunct to colposcopy improves colposcopic performance. The addition of EIS could lead to more appropriate patient management with lower intervention rates.

Cost effectiveness of human papillomavirus test of cure after treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia in England: economic analysis from NHS Sentinel Sites Study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the cost effectiveness of human papillomavirus testing after treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN).

DESIGN

Economic analysis using a Markov modelling approach to combine cost and epidemiological data from the NHS Sentinel Sites Study with data from previous studies of post-treatment recurrence rates.

SETTING

English NHS Cervical Cancer Screening Programme.

INTERVENTIONS

Management guidelines after treatment of CIN involving annual cytology follow-up for 10 years, compared with alternative protocols using the human papillomavirus test to reduce the amount of post-treatment surveillance.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Cases of underlying CIN3+ averted at 10 years and costs per 1000 women treated.

RESULTS

Model predictions indicated that, at observed levels of compliance with post-treatment recommendations, management with only cytological follow-up would result in 29 residual cases of recurrent CIN3+ by 10 years and would cost £358,222 (€440,426; $574,910) (discounted) per 1000 women treated. Implementation of human papillomavirus test of cure in cytologically negative women according to the sentinel sites protocol would avert an additional 8.4 cases of CIN 3+ and reduce costs by £9388 per 1000 women treated.

CONCLUSIONS

Human papillomavirus test of cure would be more effective and would be cost saving compared with cytology only follow-up. The results of this evaluation support the full scale implementation of human papillomavirus test of cure after treatment of CIN within the NHS Cervical Screening Programme.

Significance of HPV 16 and 18 viral load quantitation in women referred for colposcopy

The clinical utility of HPV 16 and 18 viral loads remains debated. The aim of this study was to assess the clinical significance of HPV 16 and 18 viral load and to determine a cut-off for optimal prediction of grade 2 or higher cervical intraepithelial neoplasia among patients referred to colposcopy. A total of 186 cervico-vaginal specimens harboring HPV 16 and/or 18 obtained at the time of colposcopy from patients without previous cervical neoplasia were tested for HPV 16 and 18 detection and quantitation using quantitative duplex real-time PCR method. Grade 2 or higher cervical intraepithelial neoplasia was diagnosed in 87 (46.8%) cases. Only HPV 16 median viral load increased significantly with the lesion grade: 9.1 × 10(4) in normal cervix or grade 1 cervical intraepithelial lesion versus 4.0 × 10(6) copies per million cells in grade 2 or higher cervical intraepithelial lesion (P < 0.001). The highest predictive value for grade 2 or higher cervical intraepithelial lesion was observed with a HPV 16 viral load cut-off of 3.0 × 10(6) copies per million cells (91% specificity, 58.2% sensitivity). Using this cut-off, the highest predictive value of HPV 16 viral load was observed among those referred for previous low-grade abnormal cervical cytology (96.4% specificity, 88% sensitivity). HPV 18 quantitation showed very poor predictive value. Specific attention should be given when performing colposcopic examination of women with an HPV 16 viral load higher than 3.0 × 10(6) copies per million cells, especially among those referred after a low-grade abnormal cytology.

Comparing bivalent and quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccines: economic evaluation based on transmission model

OBJECTIVES

To compare the effect and cost effectiveness of bivalent and quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, taking into account differences in licensure indications, protection against non-vaccine type disease, protection against disease related to HPV types 6 and 11, and reported long term immunogenicity.

DESIGN

A model of HPV transmission and disease previously used to inform UK vaccination policy, updated with recent evidence and expanded to include scenarios where the two vaccines differ in duration of protection, cross protection, and end points prevented.

SETTING

United Kingdom. Population Males and females aged 12-75 years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Incremental cost effectiveness ratios for both vaccines and additional cost per dose for the quadrivalent vaccine to be equally cost effective as the bivalent vaccine.

RESULTS

The bivalent vaccine needs to be cheaper than the quadrivalent vaccine to be equally cost effective, mainly because of its lack of protection against anogenital warts. The price difference per dose ranges from a median of £19 (interquartile range £12-£27) to £35 (£27-£44) across scenarios about vaccine duration, cross protection, and end points prevented (assuming one quality adjusted life year (QALY) is valued at £30,000 and both vaccines can prevent all types of HPV related cancers).

CONCLUSIONS

The quadrivalent vaccine may have an advantage over the bivalent vaccine in reducing healthcare costs and QALYs lost. The bivalent vaccine may have an advantage in preventing death due to cancer. However, considerable uncertainty remains about the differential benefit of the two vaccines.

Modelling borderline and mild dysplasia associated with HPV 6 and 11 infection

INTRODUCTION

Low risk HPV types 6/11 are responsible for some low-grade cytological abnormalities. Most economic analyses of HPV vaccination have estimated the additional benefit of HPV 6/11 protection by the quadrivalent vaccine, over the bivalent, based on reduction of genital warts but have not included reduction in repeat smears and colposcopies due to low-grade abnormalities. We investigate the contribution of HPV types 6/11 to abnormal smears and associated costs in England.

METHODS

The risk of borderline or mild dysplasia due to HPV 6/11 infection was estimated from a study of type-specific HPV DNA in cervical screening specimens collected throughout England. A Markov model representing 10 million women with HPV 6/11 or with no HPV infection from 24 to 64 years was developed to estimate the number of abnormal smears, subsequent repeat smears and colposcopies due to HPV 6/11 associated with borderline or mild dysplasia. Fitting was achieved by varying the force of infection, probability of borderline or mild dysplasia if HPV-uninfected or infected with HPV 6/11 and the duration of infection.

RESULTS

The relative risks of borderline or mild dysplasia when infected with HPV 6/11 compared to not being HPV infected were 6.32 (95% credible interval 1.56-25.6) and 17.5 (1.02-300) respectively. Using best fitting parameters we find the costs incurred are between £170 and £195 per abnormal smear due to infection with HPV 6/11.

CONCLUSIONS

In England, the impact of cytological abnormalities due to HPV 6/11 is relatively small, but not negligible. A vaccine that protects against HPV 6/11 infections could reduce costs associated with borderline and mild dysplasia, and associated colposcopies. These benefits should be considered when formulating immunisation policy, if possible. Smears and colposcopies in those uninfected with HPV far outnumber those in women infected with HPV 6/11.

Transmission dynamic modelling of the impact of human papillomavirus vaccination in the United Kingdom

Many countries are considering vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV). However, the long-term impact of vaccination is difficult to predict due to uncertainty about the prevalence of HPV infection, pattern of sexual partnerships, progression of cervical neoplasias, accuracy of screening as well as the duration of infectiousness and immunity. Dynamic models of human papillomavirus (HPV) transmission were developed to describe the infection spread and development of cervical neoplasia, cervical cancer (squamous cell and adenocarcinoma) and anogenital warts. Using different combinations of assumptions, 9900 scenarios were created. Each scenario was then fitted to epidemiological data and the best-fitting scenarios used to predict the impact of vaccination. Results suggest that vaccinating 12-year-old girls at 80% coverage will result in a 38-82% reduction in cervical cancer incidence and 44-100% reduction in anogenital warts incidence after 60 years of an ongoing vaccination programme if vaccine protection lasts 20 years on average. The marginal benefit of vaccinating boys depends on the degree of protection achieved by vaccinating girls.

Cytological surveillance compared with immediate referral for colposcopy in management of women with low grade cervical abnormalities: multicentre randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVES

To examine the effectiveness of cytological surveillance in primary care compared with immediate referral for colposcopic examination in women with low grade abnormal results on cervical cytology tests.

DESIGN

Multicentre individually randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

NHS cervical screening programmes in Grampian, Tayside, and Nottingham.

PARTICIPANTS

4439 women, aged 20-59, with a cytology result showing borderline nuclear abnormalities or mild dyskaryosis, October 1999-October 2002.

INTERVENTIONS

Cytological screening every six months in primary care (n=2223) or referral for colposcopy and related interventions (n=2216). All women were followed for three years, concluding with an exit appointment at which colposcopic examination was undertaken. Colposcopists assessing outcome at this appointment were blinded to randomisation.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary end point: cumulative incidence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade II or more severe disease. Other end points: cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III or worse, clinically significant anxiety and depression, other self reported after effects, and rates of non-attendance. Analysis was by intention to treat; all those randomised were included.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade II or worse was 79 per 1000 person years in the colposcopy arm and 58 per 1000 person years in the cytological surveillance arm (relative risk 1.37, 95% confidence interval 1.19 to 1.57). This difference was less marked for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III or more severe disease, but the incidence was still higher in the colposcopy arm (relative risk 1.26, 1.04 to 1.53). Among women randomised to immediate colposcopy, 79% (74.9% to 82.5%) of cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade II or worse were diagnosed at the time of the immediate colposcopy, while among women randomised to cytological surveillance, 77% (72.1% to 81.2%) of cases were detected by surveillance cytology and related interventions. Similar proportions of women were anxious or depressed in the two arms. A higher proportion of women in the colposcopy arm reported after effects, and these were of longer duration and more severe. Non-attendance was low in both arms.

CONCLUSION

The more marked difference between the arms in the occurrence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade II or worse than in the occurrence of grade III or worse can probably be accounted for by the spontaneous regression of some cases of grade II neoplasia. Compared with cytological surveillance, a policy of immediate colposcopy detects more cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade II or worse, and some more grade III or worse, but might lead to overtreatment. Such a policy is associated with a higher rate of reported after effects, which are more severe and of longer duration than those associated with cytological surveillance.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN 34841617.

Options for managing low grade cervical abnormalities detected at screening: cost effectiveness study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the cost effectiveness of alternative methods of managing low grade cervical cytological abnormalities detected at routine screening. Design Cost analysis within multicentre individually randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

Grampian, Tayside, and Nottingham.

PARTICIPANTS

4201 women with low grade abnormalities.

INTERVENTIONS

Cytological surveillance or referral to colposcopy for biopsy and recall if necessary or referral to colposcopy with immediate treatment based on colposcopic appearance.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Data on resource use collected from participants throughout the duration of the trial (36 months), enabling the estimation of both the direct (health care) and indirect (time and travel) costs of management. Quality of life assessed at recruitment and at 12, 18, 24, and 30 months, using the EQ-5D instrument. Economic outcomes expressed as costs per case of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (grade II or worse) detected, by trial arm, as confirmed at exit, and cost utility ratios (cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained) for the three pairwise comparisons of trial arms.

RESULTS

The mean three year discounted costs of surveillance, immediate treatment, and biopsy and recall were pound150.20 (euro177, $249), pound240.30 (euro283, $415), and pound241.10 (euro284, $4000), respectively, viewed from the health service perspective. From the social perspective, mean discounted costs were pound204.40 (euro241, $339), pound339.90 (euro440, $563), and pound327.50 (euro386, $543), respectively. Estimated at the means, the incremental cost effectiveness ratios indicated that immediate treatment was dominated by the other two management methods, although it did offer the lowest cost per case of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia detected and treated. The pronounced skews in the distributions indicated that probabilistic uncertainty analysis would offer more meaningful estimates of cost effectiveness. The observed differences in the cost effectiveness ratios between trial arms were not significant.

CONCLUSION

Judged within the time frame of the TOMBOLA evaluation, there is no compelling economic reason to favour any one follow-up method over either of the others.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN 34841617.

Estimating progression rates for human papillomavirus infection from epidemiological data

A Markov model was constructed in order to estimate type-specific rates of cervical lesion progression and regression in women with high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV). The model was fitted to age- and type-specific data regarding the HPV DNA and cytological status of women undergoing cervical screening in a recent screening trial, as well as cervical cancer incidence. It incorporates different assumptions about the way lesions regress, the accuracy of cytological screening, the specificity of HPV DNA testing, and the age-specific prevalence of HPV infection. Combinations of assumptions generate 162 scenarios for squamous cell carcinomas and 54 scenarios for adenocarcinomas. Simulating an unscreened cohort of women infected with high-risk HPV indicates that the probability of an infection continuing to persist and to develop into invasive cancer depends on the length of time it has already persisted. The scenarios and parameter sets that produce the best fit to available epidemiological data provide a basis for modeling the natural history of HPV infection and disease.

The Mexican Cervical Cancer Screening Trial: self-sampling for human papillomavirus with unaided visual inspection as a secondary screen

The Mexican Cervical Cancer Screening (MECCS) study took place in the State of Michoacán. Primary screening was by self-sampling for high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV). The objectives were to increase the specificity of primary HPV screening by requiring 2 positive HPV tests 1 year apart in women whose secondary screen was negative according to an acetic acid-aided visual inspection (VIA). In addition, we postulated that the sensitivity of VIA would be sufficient to identify large preinvasive lesions and cancers unsuitable for cryotherapy if applied in a see-and-treat algorithm.A total of 8621 women (aged 30-50 years) were screened, and 14.3% were positive for HR-HPV. In phase 1, 11.9% of the HPV-positive women were VIA-positive and were referred for colposcopy with directed and random biopsies. If VIA-negative, women repeated the self-sample 1 year later to detect persistent HR-HPV (25.2% were positive). If persistently HR-HPV-positive in phase 2, patients again had VIA, then all women (both VIA-positive and -negative) received directed and random biopsies. If cryotherapy had been used to treat HPV- and VIA-positive women in phase 1 or persistent HR-HPV-positive (phase 2), the potential risk of undertreatment would have been 4.1%, and 66.4% of the treated patients would have had normal or cervical intraepithelial neoplasia I on biopsy. The VIA triage would refer 0.73% of the patients to colposcopy owing to the lesion size, location, or the presence of a cancer. On the basis of this pilot study, we are encouraged to explore and evaluate a rapid, more sensitive, and more specific self-test.

Epidemiology and costs of cervical cancer screening and cervical dysplasia in Italy

Background

We estimated the number of women undergoing cervical cancer screening annually in Italy, the rates of cervical abnormalities detected, and the costs of screening and management of abnormalities.

Methods

The annual number of screened women was estimated from National Health Interview data. Data from the Italian Group for Cervical Cancer Screening were used to estimate the number of positive, negative and unsatisfactory Pap smears. The incidence of CIN (cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia) was estimated from the Emilia Romagna Cancer Registry. Patterns of follow-up and treatment costs were estimated using a typical disease management approach based on national guidelines and data from the Italian Group for Cervical Cancer Screening. Treatment unit costs were obtained from Italian National Health Service and Hospital Information System of the Lazio Region.

Results

An estimated 6.4 million women aged 25–69 years undergo screening annually in Italy (1.2 million and 5.2 million through organized and opportunistic screening programs, respectively). Approximately 2.4% of tests have positive findings. There are approximately 21,000 cases of CIN1 and 7,000–17,000 cases of CIN2/3. Estimated costs to the healthcare service amount to €158.5 million for screening and €22.9 million for the management of cervical abnormalities.

Conclusion

Although some cervical abnormalities might have been underestimated, the total annual cost of cervical cancer prevention in Italy is approximately €181.5 million, of which 87% is attributable to screening.

Review: Optical Micrometer Resolution Scanning for Non-invasive Grading of Precancer in the Human Uterine Cervix

Management of cervical precancer is archetypal for other cancer prevention programmes but has to consider diagnostic and logistic challenges. Numerous optical tools are emerging for non-destructive near real-time early diagnosis of precancerous lesions of the cervix. Non-destructive, real-time imaging modalities have reached pre-commercial status, but high resolution mapping tools are not yet introduced in clinical settings. The NCBI PubMed web page was searched using the keywords ‘CIN diagnosis’ and the combinations of ‘cervix {confocal, optical coherence tomography, ftir, infrared, Raman, vibrational, spectroscopy}’. Suitable titles were identified and their relevant references followed. Challenges in precancer management are discussed. The following tools capable of non-destructive high resolution mapping in a clinical environment were selected: confocal microscopy, optical coherence tomography, IR spectroscopy, and Raman spectroscopy. Findings on the clinical performance of these techniques are put into context in order to assist the reader in judging the likely performance of these methods as diagnostic tools. Rationale for carrying out research under the prospect of the HPV vaccine is given.

Economic evaluation of human papillomavirus vaccination in the United Kingdom

OBJECTIVE

To assess the cost effectiveness of routine vaccination of 12 year old schoolgirls against human papillomavirus infection in the United Kingdom.

DESIGN

Economic evaluation.

SETTING

UK. Population Schoolgirls aged 12 or older.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Costs, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost effectiveness ratios for a range of vaccination options.

RESULTS

Vaccinating 12 year old schoolgirls with a quadrivalent vaccine at 80% coverage is likely to be cost effective at a willingness to pay threshold of pound30,000 (euro37,700; $59,163) per QALY gained, if the average duration of protection from the vaccine is more than 10 years. Implementing a catch-up campaign of girls up to age 18 is likely to be cost effective. Vaccination of boys is unlikely to be cost effective. A bivalent vaccine with the same efficacy against human papillomavirus types 16 and 18 costing pound13- pound21 less per dose (depending on the duration of vaccine protection) may be as cost effective as the quadrivalent vaccine although less effective as it does not prevent anogenital warts.

CONCLUSIONS

Routine vaccination of 12 year old schoolgirls combined with an initial catch-up campaign up to age 18 is likely to be cost effective in the UK. The results are robust to uncertainty in many parameters and processes. A key influential variable is the duration of vaccine protection.