Planning for reserve adequacy in dynamic landscapes; maximizing future representation of vegetation communities under flood disturbance in the Pantanal wetland

Conservation planning integrating natural disturbances: Estimating minimum reserve sizes for an insect disturbance in the boreal forest of eastern Canada

Large natural disturbances such as insect outbreaks and fire are important processes for biodiversity in forest landscapes. However, few methods exist for incorporating natural disturbances into conservation planning. Intact forest landscapes, such as in the North American boreal forest, can produce large natural disturbance footprints. They also have the potential to support large reserves but size estimates based on natural disturbance are needed to guide reserve design. Historical fire data have been used to estimate minimum dynamic reserves, reserve size estimates based on maintaining natural disturbance dynamics and ensuring resilience to large natural disturbance events. While this has been a significant step towards incorporating natural disturbance into reserve design, managers currently lack guidance on how to apply these concepts in areas where fire is not the dominant natural disturbance. We generalize the minimum dynamic reserve framework to accommodate insect outbreaks and demonstrate the framework in a case study for eastern spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) in the Canadian boreal forest. Our methods use geospatial analysis to identify minimum dynamic reserves based on a set of spatially explicit initial conditions, and simulation models to test for the maintenance of a set of dynamic conditions over time. We found considerable variability in minimum dynamic reserve size depending on the size of historic budworm disturbance events and the spatial patterns of disturbance-prone vegetation types. The minimum dynamic reserve framework provides an approach for incorporating wide-ranging natural disturbances into biodiversity conservation plans for both pro-active planning in intact landscapes, and reactive planning in more developed regions.

Software for prioritizing conservation actions based on probabilistic information

Marxan is the most common decision-support tool used to inform the design of protected-area systems. The original version of Marxan does not consider risk and uncertainty associated with threatening processes affecting protected areas, including uncertainty about the location and condition of species' populations and habitats now and in the future. We described and examined the functionality of a modified version of Marxan, Marxan with Probability. This software explicitly considers 4 types of uncertainty: probability that a feature exists in a particular place (estimated based on species distribution models or spatially explicit population models); probability that features in a site will be lost in the future due to a threatening process, such as climate change, natural catastrophes, and uncontrolled human interventions; probability that a feature will exist in the future due to natural successional processes, such as a fire or flood; and probability the feature exists but has been degraded by threatening processes, such as overfishing or pollution, and thus cannot contribute to conservation goals. We summarized the results of 5 studies that illustrate how each type of uncertainty can be used to inform protected area design. If there were uncertainty in species or habitat distribution, users could maximize the chance that these features were represented by including uncertainty using Marxan with Probability. Similarly, if threatening processes were considered, users minimized the chance that species or habitats were lost or degraded by using Marxan with Probability. Marxan with Probability opens up substantial new avenues for systematic conservation planning research and application by agencies.

Responses of macroinvertebrate assemblages to environmental variations in the river-oxbow lake system of the Zoige wetland (Bai River, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau)

The biodiversity value of river-oxbow lake systems in high plateau peatland has been little recognized, and there are many gaps in our understanding of their ecology. In this study, we investigated the river-oxbow lake system of the Bai River basin, the main tributary of the Yellow River Source in the Zoige wetland from 2015 to 2016, in attempt to show how the environmental variations, especially hydrological connectivity and macrophyte biomass in the river-oxbow lake system influenced macroinvertebrates. Habitat patches were investigated in 11 river cross-sections and 18 oxbow lakes in the Bai River basin. Through hierarchical clustering and non-metric multidimensional scaling, four main types of habitats were identified in the river-oxbow lake system in the plateau: sand-bed river, cobble-bed river, sparse-macrophyte oxbow lake, and luxuriant-macrophyte oxbow lake. The luxuriant-macrophyte oxbows were characterized by high dissolved oxygen concentrations, alkalinity, and higher macroinvertebrate richness, density, biomass, and the Improved Shannon-Wiener Index in comparison to the other habitat types. Additionally, influential patterns of environmental variables on macroinvertebrates were analyzed using redundancy analysis. Lasso regression models were established to describe how macroinvertebrate density responded to macrophyte biomass and other variables, and how macrophyte biomass responded to hydrological connectivity and oxbow size. It was revealed that reduced hydrological connectivity and reduced oxbow size played important roles in increasing the biomass of submerged macrophyte, and dense macrophyte was directly responsible for the high biodiversity of macroinvertebrates. Different from the commonly believed unimodal influential pattern that medium hydrological connectivity supports the highest biodiversity in oxbow lakes reported in previous studies, macroinvertebrates in the high plateau river-oxbow lake systems benefited from low connectivity and reduced size. Oxbow lakes, especially those covered with luxuriant macrophytes, diversified the macroinvertebrate assemblages and enhanced primary consumer biomass at the regional scale.

Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics

Systematic conservation planning is a framework for optimally locating and prioritizing areas for conservation. An often-noted shortcoming of most conservation planning studies is that they do not address future uncertainty. The selection of protected areas that are intended to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity is often based on a snapshot of the current situation, ignoring processes such as climate change. Scenarios, in the sense of being accounts of plausible futures, can be utilized to identify conservation area portfolios that are robust to future uncertainty. We compared three approaches for utilizing scenarios in conservation area selection: considering a full set of scenarios (all-scenarios portfolio), assuming the realization of specific scenarios, and a reference strategy based on the current situation (current distributions portfolio). Our objective was to compare the robustness of these approaches in terms of their relative performance across future scenarios. We focused on breeding bird species in Israel's Mediterranean region. We simulated urban development and vegetation dynamics scenarios 60 years into the future using DINAMICA-EGO, a cellular-automata simulation model. For each scenario, we mapped the target species' available habitat distribution, identified conservation priority areas using the site-selection software MARXAN, and constructed conservation area portfolios using the three aforementioned strategies. We then assessed portfolio performance based on the number of species for which representation targets were met in each scenario. The all-scenarios portfolio consistently outperformed the other portfolios, and was more robust to 'errors' (e.g., when an assumed specific scenario did not occur). On average, the all-scenarios portfolio achieved representation targets for five additional species compared with the current distributions portfolio (approximately 33 versus 28 species). Our findings highlight the importance of considering a broad and meaningful set of scenarios, rather than relying on the current situation, the expected occurrence of specific scenarios, or the worst-case scenario.

Evaluating complementary networks of restoration plantings for landscape-scale occurrence of temporally dynamic species

Multibillion dollar investments in land restoration make it critical that conservation goals are achieved cost-effectively. Approaches developed for systematic conservation planning offer opportunities to evaluate landscape-scale, temporally dynamic biodiversity outcomes from restoration and improve on traditional approaches that focus on the most species-rich plantings. We investigated whether it is possible to apply a complementarity-based approach to evaluate the extent to which an existing network of restoration plantings meets representation targets. Using a case study of woodland birds of conservation concern in southeastern Australia, we compared complementarity-based selections of plantings based on temporally dynamic species occurrences with selections based on static species occurrences and selections based on ranking plantings by species richness. The dynamic complementarity approach, which incorporated species occurrences over 5 years, resulted in higher species occurrences and proportion of targets met compared with the static complementarity approach, in which species occurrences were taken at a single point in time. For equivalent cost, the dynamic complementarity approach also always resulted in higher average minimum percent occurrence of species maintained through time and a higher proportion of the bird community meeting representation targets compared with the species-richness approach. Plantings selected under the complementarity approaches represented the full range of planting attributes, whereas those selected under the species-richness approach were larger in size. Our results suggest that future restoration policy should not attempt to achieve all conservation goals within individual plantings, but should instead capitalize on restoration opportunities as they arise to achieve collective value of multiple plantings across the landscape. Networks of restoration plantings with complementary attributes of age, size, vegetation structure, and landscape context lead to considerably better outcomes than conventional restoration objectives of site-scale species richness and are crucial for allocating restoration investment wisely to reach desired conservation goals.

Where have all the people gone? Enhancing global conservation using night lights and social media

Conservation prioritization at large scales is complex, combining biological, environmental, and social factors. While conservation scientists now more often aim to incorporate human-related factors, a critical yet unquantified challenge remains: to identify which areas people use for recreation outside urban centers. To address this gap in applied ecology and conservation, we developed a novel approach for quantifying human presence beyond populated areas by combining social media "big data" and remote sensing tools. We used data from the Flickr photo-sharing website as a surrogate for identifying spatial variation in visitation globally, and complemented this estimate with spatially explicit information on stable night lights between 2004 and 2012, used as a proxy for identifying urban and industrial centers. Natural and seminatural areas attracting visitors were defined as areas both highly photographed and non-lit. The number of Flickr photographers within protected areas was found to be a reliable surrogate for estimating visitor numbers as confirmed by local authority censuses (r = 0.8). Half of all visitors' photos taken in protected areas originated from under 1% of all protected areas on Earth (250 of -27 000). The most photographed protected areas globally included Yosemite and Yellowstone National Parks (USA), and the Lake and Peak Districts (UK). Factors explaining the spatial variation in protected areas Flickr photo coverage included their type (e.g., UNESCO World Heritage sites have higher visitation) and accessibility to roads and trails. Using this approach, we identified photography hotspots, which draw many visitors and are also unlit (i.e., are located outside urban centers), but currently remain largely unprotected, such as Brazil's Pantanal and Bolivia's Salar de Uyuni. The integrated big data approach developed here demonstrates the benefits of combining remote sensing sources and novel geo-tagged and crowd-sourced information from social media in future efforts to identify spatial conservation gaps and pressures in real time, and their spatial and temporal variation globally.

What we (don't) know about the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on felids

Felid species have intrinsic ecological traits that make them particularly susceptible to the threats of habitat loss and fragmentation. We collate current knowledge of the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on felids, describing trends, investigating the allocation of research effort and identifying knowledge gaps. We searched the scientific literature and categorized articles according to conceptual and methodological approaches. We reviewed 162 articles and observed that scientific knowledge is unevenly distributed among topics and species. Habitat suitability and patch–landscape configuration are the most studied topics. The allocation of research effort is unrelated to variables that describe conservation priorities, such as threat status and habitat availability within a species’ range, but it is related to body size, suggesting that charismatic attributes influence the choice of target species. Countries with less research effort are also those with less economic development, and thus North America and Europe are the centres of knowledge generation of reviewed studies. The responses of sixteen felid species to habitat loss and fragmentation remain unknown. Of these the Andean mountain cat Leopardus jacobita, the Bornean bay cat Pardofelis badia, the flat-headed cat Prionailurus planiceps and the fishing cat Prionailurus viverrinus most urgently require research because they are threatened with extinction. We recommend the use of theoretical approaches, through modelling exercises, as a first step to address the lack of information about the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on felids, especially for those species for which there are large knowledge gaps.

Does more mean less? The value of information for conservation planning under sea level rise

Many studies have explored the benefits of adopting more sophisticated modelling techniques or spatial data in terms of our ability to accurately predict ecosystem responses to global change. However, we currently know little about whether the improved predictions will actually lead to better conservation outcomes once the costs of gaining improved models or data are accounted for. This severely limits our ability to make strategic decisions for adaptation to global pressures, particularly in landscapes subject to dynamic change such as the coastal zone. In such landscapes, the global phenomenon of sea level rise is a critical consideration for preserving biodiversity. Here, we address this issue in the context of making decisions about where to locate a reserve system to preserve coastal biodiversity with a limited budget. Specifically, we determined the cost-effectiveness of investing in high-resolution elevation data and process-based models for predicting wetland shifts in a coastal region of South East Queensland, Australia. We evaluated the resulting priority areas for reserve selection to quantify the cost-effectiveness of investment in better quantifying biological and physical processes. We show that, in this case, it is considerably more cost effective to use a process-based model and high-resolution elevation data, even if this requires a substantial proportion of the project budget to be expended (up to 99% in one instance). The less accurate model and data set failed to identify areas of high conservation value, reducing the cost-effectiveness of the resultant conservation plan. This suggests that when developing conservation plans in areas where sea level rise threatens biodiversity, investing in high-resolution elevation data and process-based models to predict shifts in coastal ecosystems may be highly cost effective. A future research priority is to determine how this cost-effectiveness varies among different regions across the globe.

Systematic conservation planning

The realization of conservation goals requires strategies for managing whole landscapes including areas allocated to both production and protection. Reserves alone are not adequate for nature conservation but they are the cornerstone on which regional strategies are built. Reserves have two main roles. They should sample or represent the biodiversity of each region and they should separate this biodiversity from processes that threaten its persistence. Existing reserve systems throughout the world contain a biased sample of biodiversity, usually that of remote places and other areas that are unsuitable for commercial activities. A more systematic approach to locating and designing reserves has been evolving and this approach will need to be implemented if a large proportion of today's biodiversity is to exist in a future of increasing numbers of people and their demands on natural resources.