Importance of habitat quality and landscape connectivity for the persistence of endangered natterjack toads

Habitat restoration weakens negative environmental effects on telomere dynamics

Habitat quality can have far-reaching effects on organismal fitness, an issue of concern given the current scale of habitat degradation. Many temperate upland streams have reduced nutrient levels due to human activity. Nutrient restoration confers benefits in terms of invertebrate food availability and subsequent fish growth rates. Here we test whether these mitigation measures also affect the rate of cellular ageing of the fish, measured in terms of the telomeres that cap the ends of eukaryotic chromosomes. We equally distributed Atlantic salmon eggs from the same 30 focal families into 10 human-impacted oligotrophic streams in northern Scotland. Nutrient levels in five of the streams were restored by simulating the deposition of a small number of adult Atlantic salmon Salmo salar carcasses at the end of the spawning period, while five reference streams were left as controls. Telomere lengths and expression of the telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) gene that may act to lengthen telomeres were then measured in the young fish when 15 months old. While TERT expression was unrelated to any of the measured variables, telomere lengths were shorter in salmon living at higher densities and in areas with a lower availability of the preferred substrate (cobbles and boulders). However, the adverse effects of these habitat features were much reduced in the streams receiving nutrients. These results suggest that adverse environmental pressures are weakened when nutrients are restored, presumably because the resulting increase in food supply reduces levels of both competition and stress.

Estimation of breeding probability can make monitoring data more revealing: a case study of amphibians

Monitoring programs serve to detect trends in the distribution and abundance of species. To do so, monitoring programs often use static state variables. Dynamic state variables that describe population dynamics might be more valuable because they allow for a mechanistic understanding of the processes that lead to population trends. We fit multistate occupancy models to data from a country-wide multispecies amphibian occupancy monitoring program and estimated occupancy and breeding probabilities. If breeding probabilities are determinants of occupancy dynamics, then they may serve in monitoring programs as state variables that describe dynamic processes. The results showed that breeding probabilities were low and that a large proportion of the populations had to be considered to be non-breeding populations (i.e., populations where adults are present but no breeding occurs). For some species, the majority of populations were non-breeding populations. We found that non-breeding populations have lower persistence probabilities than populations where breeding occurs. Breeding probabilities may thus explain trends in occupancy but they might also explain other ecological phenomena, such as the success of invasive species, which had high breeding probabilities. Signs of breeding, i.e., the presence of eggs and larvae, were often hard to detect. Importantly, non-breeding populations also had low detection probabilities, perhaps because they had lower abundances. We suggest that monitoring programs should invest more in the detection of life history stages indicative of breeding, and also into the detection of non-breeding populations. We conclude that breeding probability should be used as a state variable in monitoring programs because it can lead to deeper insights into the processes driving occupancy dynamics.

Investigating potential toxic effects of pollutants on population growth rates and probability of extinction for a representative squamate

Chemical contamination has been suggested as an important contributing factor to reptile population declines, but direct links are rarely reported. Population modeling provides a quantitative method to understand the long-term effects of contaminants on population persistence. We created a matrix model for Sceloporus lizards and investigated hypothetical toxic effects by reducing survival and reproductive parameters by 0 to 100% in 10% increments. We report effects on population growth rate (λ) and elasticity values for each stage due to these reductions. We then incorporated stochasticity to the model to simulate the variation seen in demographic data and quantified extinction risk. The deterministic model yielded a λ of 1.07 suggesting stability in some wild Sceloporus populations. A yearly reduction of 20 to 30% in demographic parameters was needed to push λ to decline in both our deterministic and stochastic simulations. Surprisingly, our baseline stochastic simulations had a 30% extinction probability despite a stable deterministic model. We tested three adjustments to the stochastic model, (1) increased survival/fecundity parameters, (2) higher starting densities, and (3) a density-dependent juvenile survival function. The model with density-dependent juvenile growth had the lowest extinction risk. Ultimately, 20 or 30% mortality every year is likely unrealistic, but our results provide insight in linking toxicity to population effects. Ultimately, very little reduction in demographics is needed to cause declines in these populations. Our generalized models provide important tools for screening-level risk assessment of chemical contamination, especially for taxonomic groups that tend to receive less research interest.

Habitat patches for newts in the face of climate change: local scale assessment combining niche modelling and graph theory

Triturus cristatus and Triturus marmoratus are two protected and declining newts occurring in the administrative department of Vienne, in France. They have limited dispersal abilities and rely on the connectivity between habitats and their suitability. In a warming climate, the locations of suitable habitats are expected to change, as is the connectivity. Here, we wondered how climate change might affect shifts in habitat suitability and connectivity of habitat patches, as connectivity is a key element enabling species to realize a potential range shift. We used ecological niche modelling (ENM), combining large-scale climate suitability with local scale, high-resolution habitat features, to identify suitable areas for the two species, under low and high warming scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). We associated it with connectivity assessment through graph theory. The variable 'small ponds' contributed most to land cover-only ENMs for both species. Projections with climate change scenarios revealed a potential impact of warming on suitable habitat patches for newts, especially for T. cristatus. We observed a decrease in connectivity following a decrease in patch suitability. Our results highlight the important areas for newt habitat connectivity within the study area, and define those potentially threatened by climate warming. We provide information for prioritizing sites for acquisition, protection or restoration, and to advise landscape policies. Our framework is a useful and easily reproducible way to combine global climate requirements of the species with detailed information on species habitats and occurrence when available.

Integrating copper toxicity and climate change to understand extinction risk to two species of pond-breeding anurans

Chemical contamination is often suggested as an important contributing factor to amphibian population declines, but direct links are rarely reported. Population modeling provides a quantitative method to integrate toxicity data with demographic data to understand the long-term effects of contaminants on population persistence. In this study we use laboratory-derived embryo and larval toxicity data for two anuran species to investigate the potential for toxicity to contribute to population declines. We use the southern toad (Anaxyrus terrestris) and the southern leopard frog (Lithobates sphenocephalus) as model species to investigate copper (Cu) toxicity. We use matrix models to project populations through time and quantify extinction risk (the probability of quasi-extinction in 35 yr). Life-history parameters for toads and frogs were obtained from previously published literature or unpublished data from a long-term (>35 yr) data set. In addition to Cu toxicity, we investigate the role of climate change on amphibian populations by including the probability of early pond drying that results in catastrophic reproductive failure (CRF, i.e., complete mortality of all larval individuals). Our models indicate that CRF is an important parameter for both species as both were unable to persist when CRF probability was >50% for toads or 40% for frogs. Copper toxicity alone did not result in significant effects on extinction risk unless toxicity was very high (>50% reduction in survival parameters). For toads, Cu toxicity and high probability of CRF both resulted in high extinction risk but no synergistic (or greater than additive) effects between the two stressors occurred. For leopard frogs, in the absence of CRF survival was high even under Cu toxicity, but with CRF Cu toxicity increased extinction risk. Our analyses highlight the importance of considering multiple stressors as well as species differences in response to those stressors. Our models were consistently most sensitive to juvenile and adult survival, further suggesting the importance of terrestrial stages to population persistence. Future models will incorporate multiple wetlands with different combinations of stressors to understand if our results for a single wetland result in a population sink within the landscape.

Spatially variable habitat quality contributes to within-population variation in reproductive success

Variation in habitat quality is common across terrestrial, freshwater, and marine habitats. We investigated how habitat quality influenced the reproductive potential of mud crabs across 30 oyster reefs that were degraded to different extents. We further coupled this field survey with a laboratory experiment designed to mechanistically determine the relationship between resource consumption and reproductive performance. We show a >10-fold difference in average reproductive potential for crabs across reefs of different quality. Calculated consumption rates for crabs in each reef, based on a type II functional response, suggest that differences in reproductive performance may be attributed to resource limitation in poor quality reefs. This conclusion is supported by results of our laboratory experiment where crabs fed a higher quality diet of abundant animal tissue had greater reproductive performance. Our results demonstrate that spatial variation in habitat quality can be a considerable contributor to within-population individual variation in reproductive success (i.e., demographic heterogeneity). This finding has important implications for assessing population extinction risk.

You are what you eat: fatty acid profiles as a method to track the habitat movement of an insect

Tracking the movement of small organisms is of tremendous importance to understanding the ecology of populations, communities, and ecosystems. However, it remains one of the most difficult challenges facing the field of movement ecology. We developed an intrinsic marking technique for tracking small organisms using dietary fatty acid profiles as a biomarker as well as for clarifying source-sink dynamics between populations on a landscape level. Navel orangeworm moths (NOW), Amyelois transitella (Walker) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), raised on two different host plants with significantly different fatty acid profiles, were used to develop a model that distinguishes NOW based on their larval host plant. Wild NOW from both known and unknown host plants were used to validate the model. NOW fatty acid profiles showed striking similarities to the fatty acid profile of their host plant demonstrating that fatty acids can act as an intrinsic marking technique for quantifying the movement of small organisms. We anticipate that given sufficient spatial variation in dietary fatty acids, this technique will be useful in studying the movement of arthropods and other invertebrates particularly when addressing questions of source-sink dynamics.

Movement ecology of amphibians: from individual migratory behaviour to spatially structured populations in heterogeneous landscapes,

Both genetic cohesion among local populations of animals and range expansion depend on the frequency of dispersers moving at an interpatch scale. Animal movement has an individual component that reflects behaviour and an ecological component that reflects the spatial organization of populations. The total movement capacity of an individual describes maximum movement distance theoretically achievable during a lifetime, whereas its variation among the members of a local population determines the magnitude of interpatch movements and thus of gene flow between neighbouring patches within metapopulation or patchy population systems. Here, I review information on dispersal and migration as components of the movement capacity of juvenile and adult pond-breeding amphibians and discuss how these components inform the spatial structure of populations. Amphibians disperse as juveniles and adults, but movement distances detected in tracking or capture–mark–recapture studies are usually far below the corresponding estimates based on molecular gene-flow data. This discrepancy reflects the constraints of available tracking methods for free-ranging individuals leading to inappropriate surrogates of annual movement capacity, but can be resolved using probabilistic approaches based on dispersal functions. There is remarkable capacity for and plasticity in movements in amphibians. Annual within-patch movements (migrations) of individuals can be large and likely represent an underestimated capacity for movement at the interpatch scale. Landscape resistance may influence the paths of dispersing amphibians, but rarely impedes interpatch movements. Juveniles emigrating unpredictably far from the natal pond and adults switching from within-patch migrations to dispersal to another patch demonstrate the plasticity of individual movement behaviour. Three basic conclusions can be drawn with respect to the linkage of individual movement behaviour and spatial or genetic structure of local amphibian populations embedded in a heterogeneous landscape: (1) individual movements or consecutive short-term series of movements are misleading surrogate measures of total movement capacity; (2) probabilistic modelling of movement capacity is the best available behavioural predictor of interpatch gene flow; (3) connectivity of local populations in heterogeneous landscapes is less affected by landscape resistance than previously expected.

The potential connectivity of waterhole networks and the effectiveness of a protected area under various drought scenarios

Landscape connectivity is considered a priority for ecosystem conservation because it may mitigate the synergistic effects of climate change and habitat loss. Climate change predictions suggest changes in precipitation regimes, which will affect the availability of water resources, with potential consequences for landscape connectivity. The Greater Calakmul Region of the Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico) has experienced a 16% decrease in precipitation over the last 50 years, which we hypothesise has affected water resource connectivity. We used a network model of connectivity, for three large endangered species (Baird's tapir, white-lipped peccary and jaguar), to assess the effect of drought on waterhole availability and connectivity in a forested landscape inside and adjacent to the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve. We used reported travel distances and home ranges for our species to establish movement distances in our model. Specifically, we compared the effects of 10 drought scenarios on the number of waterholes (nodes) and the subsequent changes in network structure and node importance. Our analysis revealed that drought dramatically influenced spatial structure and potential connectivity of the network. Our results show that waterhole connectivity and suitable habitat (area surrounding waterholes) is lost faster inside than outside the reserve for all three study species, an outcome that may drive them outside the reserve boundaries. These results emphasize the need to assess how the variability in the availability of seasonal water resource may affect the viability of animal populations under current climate change inside and outside protected areas.

Spatially and financially explicit population viability analysis of Maculinea alcon in The Netherlands

BACKGROUND

The conservation of species structured in metapopulations involves an important dilemma of resource allocation: should investments be directed at restoring/enlarging habitat patches or increasing connectivity. This is still an open question for Maculinea species despite they are among the best studied and emblematic butterfly species, because none of the population dynamics models developed so far included dispersal.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We developed the first spatially and financially explicit Population Viability Analysis model for Maculinea alcon, using field data from The Netherlands. Implemented using the RAMAS/GIS platform, the model incorporated both local (contest density dependence, environmental and demographic stochasticities), and regional population dynamics (dispersal rates between habitat patches). We selected four habitat patch networks, contrasting in several basic features (number of habitat patches, their quality, connectivity, and occupancy rate) to test how these features are affecting the ability to enhance population viability of four basic management options, designed to incur the same costs: habitat enlargement, habitat quality improvement, creation of new stepping stone habitat patches, and reintroduction of captive-reared butterflies. The PVA model was validated by the close match between its predictions and independent field observations on the patch occupancy pattern. The four patch networks differed in their sensitivity to model parameters, as well as in the ranking of management options. Overall, the best cost-effective option was enlargement of existing habitat patches, followed by either habitat quality improvement or creation of stepping stones depending on the network features. Reintroduction was predicted to generally be inefficient, except in one specific patch network.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our results underline the importance of spatial and regional aspects (dispersal and connectivity) in determining the impact of conservation actions, even for a species previously considered as sedentary. They also illustrate that failure to account for the cost of management scenarios can lead to very different conclusions.

Breaking functional connectivity into components: a novel approach using an individual-based model, and first outcomes

Landscape connectivity is a key factor determining the viability of populations in fragmented landscapes. Predicting 'functional connectivity', namely whether a patch or a landscape functions as connected from the perspective of a focal species, poses various challenges. First, empirical data on the movement behaviour of species is often scarce. Second, animal-landscape interactions are bound to yield complex patterns. Lastly, functional connectivity involves various components that are rarely assessed separately. We introduce the spatially explicit, individual-based model FunCon as means to distinguish between components of functional connectivity and to assess how each of them affects the sensitivity of species and communities to landscape structures. We then present the results of exploratory simulations over six landscapes of different fragmentation levels and across a range of hypothetical bird species that differ in their response to habitat edges. i) Our results demonstrate that estimations of functional connectivity depend not only on the response of species to edges (avoidance versus penetration into the matrix), the movement mode investigated (home range movements versus dispersal), and the way in which the matrix is being crossed (random walk versus gap crossing), but also on the choice of connectivity measure (in this case, the model output examined). ii) We further show a strong effect of the mortality scenario applied, indicating that movement decisions that do not fully match the mortality risks are likely to reduce connectivity and enhance sensitivity to fragmentation. iii) Despite these complexities, some consistent patterns emerged. For instance, the ranking order of landscapes in terms of functional connectivity was mostly consistent across the entire range of hypothetical species, indicating that simple landscape indices can potentially serve as valuable surrogates for functional connectivity. Yet such simplifications must be carefully evaluated in terms of the components of functional connectivity they actually predict.

A framework for developing management goals for species at risk with examples from military installations in the United States

A decision framework for setting management goals for species at risk is presented. Species at risk are those whose potential future rarity is of concern. Listing these species as threatened or endangered could potentially result in significant restrictions to activities in resource management areas in order to maintain those species. The decision framework, designed to foster proactive management, has nine steps: identify species at risk on and near the management area, describe available information and potential information gaps for each species, determine the potential distribution of species and their habitat, select metrics for describing species status, assess the status of local population or metapopulation, conduct threat assessment, set and prioritize management goals, develop species management plans, and develop criteria for ending special species management where possible. This framework will aid resource managers in setting management goals that minimally impact human activities while reducing the likelihood that species at risk will become rare in the near future. The management areas in many of the examples are United States (US) military installations, which are concerned about potential restrictions to military training capacity if species at risk become regulated under the US Endangered Species Act. The benefits of the proactive management set forth in this formal decision framework are that it is impartial, provides a clear procedure, calls for identification of causal relationships that may not be obvious, provides a way to target the most urgent needs, reduces costs, enhances public confidence, and, most importantly, decreases the chance of species becoming more rare.

Dispersal Kernel Determines Symmetry of Spread and Geographical Range for an Insect

The distance from a source patch that dispersing insects reach depends on the number of dispersers, or random draws from a probability density function called a dispersal kernel, and the shape of that kernel. This can cause asymmetrical dispersal between habitat patches that produce different numbers of dispersers. Spatial distributions based on these dynamics can explain several ecological patterns including megapopulations and geographic range boundaries. I hypothesized that a locally extirpated longhorned beetle, the sugar maple borer, has a new geographical range shaped primarily by probabilistic dispersal distances. I used data on occurrence from Ontario, Canada to construct a model of geographical range in Indiana, USA based on maximum dispersal distance scaled by habitat area. This model predicted the new range boundary within 500 m very accurately. This beetle may be an ideal organism for exploring spatial dynamics driven by dispersal.