Underlying cause of death in incident unprovoked seizures in the urban community of Northern Manhattan, New York City

Prognosis of adults and children following a first unprovoked seizure

BACKGROUND

Epilepsy is clinically defined as two or more unprovoked epileptic seizures more than 24 hours apart. Given that, a diagnosis of epilepsy can be associated with significant morbidity and mortality, it is imperative that clinicians (and people with seizures and their relatives) have access to accurate and reliable prognostic estimates, to guide clinical practice on the risks of developing further unprovoked seizures (and by definition, a diagnosis of epilepsy) following single unprovoked epileptic seizure.

OBJECTIVES

1. To provide an accurate estimate of the proportion of individuals going on to have further unprovoked seizures at subsequent time points following a single unprovoked epileptic seizure (or cluster of epileptic seizures within a 24-hour period, or a first episode of status epilepticus), of any seizure type (overall prognosis). 2. To evaluate the mortality rate following a first unprovoked epileptic seizure.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the following databases on 19 September 2019 and again on 30 March 2021, with no language restrictions. The Cochrane Register of Studies (CRS Web), MEDLINE Ovid (1946 to March 29, 2021), SCOPUS (1823 onwards), ClinicalTrials.gov, the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP). CRS Web includes randomized or quasi-randomized, controlled trials from PubMed, Embase, ClinicalTrials.gov, the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and the Specialized Registers of Cochrane Review Groups including Epilepsy. In MEDLINE (Ovid) the coverage end date always lags a few days behind the search date.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included studies, both retrospective and prospective, of all age groups (except those in the neonatal period (< 1 month of age)), of people with a single unprovoked seizure, followed up for a minimum of six months, with no upper limit of follow-up, with the study end point being seizure recurrence, death, or loss to follow-up. To be included, studies must have included at least 30 participants. We excluded studies that involved people with seizures that occur as a result of an acute precipitant or provoking factor, or in close temporal proximity to an acute neurological insult, since these are not considered epileptic in aetiology (acute symptomatic seizures). We also excluded people with situational seizures, such as febrile convulsions.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors conducted the initial screening of titles and abstracts identified through the electronic searches, and removed non-relevant articles. We obtained the full-text articles of all remaining potentially relevant studies, or those whose relevance could not be determined from the abstract alone and two authors independently assessed for eligibility. All disagreements were resolved through discussion with no need to defer to a third review author. We extracted data from included studies using a data extraction form based on the checklist for critical appraisal and data extraction for systematicreviews of prediction modelling studies (CHARMS). Two review authors then appraised the included studies, using a standardised approach based on the quality in prognostic studies (QUIPS) tool, which was adapted for overall prognosis (seizure recurrence). We conducted a meta-analysis using Review Manager 2014, with a random-effects generic inverse variance meta-analysis model, which accounted for any between-study heterogeneity in the prognostic effect. We then summarised the meta-analysis by the pooled estimate (the average prognostic factor effect), its 95% confidence interval (CI), the estimates of I² and Tau² (heterogeneity), and a 95% prediction interval for the prognostic effect in a single population at three various time points, 6 months, 12 months and 24 months. Subgroup analysis was performed according to the ages of the cohorts included; studies involving all ages, studies that recruited adult only and those that were purely paediatric.

MAIN RESULTS

Fifty-eight studies (involving 54 cohorts), with a total of 12,160 participants (median 147, range 31 to 1443), met the inclusion criteria for the review. Of the 58 studies, 26 studies were paediatric studies, 16 were adult and the remaining 16 studies were a combination of paediatric and adult populations. Most included studies had a cohort study design with two case-control studies and one nested case-control study. Thirty-two studies (29 cohorts) reported a prospective longitudinal design whilst 15 studies had a retrospective design whilst the remaining studies were randomised controlled trials. Nine of the studies included presented mortality data following a first unprovoked seizure. For a mortality study to be included, a proportional mortality ratio (PMR) or a standardised mortality ratio (SMR) had to be given at a specific time point following a first unprovoked seizure. To be included in the meta-analysis a study had to present clear seizure recurrence data at 6 months, 12 months or 24 months. Forty-six studies were included in the meta-analysis, of which 23 were paediatric, 13 were adult, and 10 were a combination of paediatric and adult populations. A meta-analysis was performed at three time points; six months, one year and two years for all ages combined, paediatric and adult studies, respectively. We found an estimated overall seizure recurrence of all included studies at six months of 27% (95% CI 24% to 31%), 36% (95% CI 33% to 40%) at one year and 43% (95% CI 37% to 44%) at two years, with slightly lower estimates for adult subgroup analysis and slightly higher estimates for paediatric subgroup analysis. It was not possible to provide a summary estimate of the risk of seizure recurrence beyond these time points as most of the included studies were of short follow-up and too few studies presented recurrence rates at a single time point beyond two years. The evidence presented was found to be of moderate certainty.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Despite the limitations of the data (moderate-certainty of evidence), mainly relating to clinical and methodological heterogeneity we have provided summary estimates for the likely risk of seizure recurrence at six months, one year and two years for both children and adults. This provides information that is likely to be useful for the clinician counselling patients (or their parents) on the probable risk of further seizures in the short-term whilst acknowledging the paucity of long-term recurrence data, particularly beyond 10 years.

CDC-supported epilepsy surveillance and epidemiologic studies: A review of progress since 1994

To report progress, to identify gaps, and to plan epilepsy surveillance and research activities more effectively, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Epilepsy Program has summarized findings from selected CDC-supported surveillance and epidemiologic studies about epilepsy from 1994 through 2019. We identified publications supported by CDC funding and publications conducted by the CDC Epilepsy Program alone or with partners. We included only epilepsy surveillance and epidemiologic studies focusing on epilepsy burden, epilepsy-related outcomes, and healthcare utilization. We describe the findings of these studies in the following order: 1)prevalence; 2)incidence; 3)epilepsy-related outcomes by selected demographic characteristics; 4)cysticercosis or neurocysticercosis (NCC); 5)traumatic brain injury (TBI); 6)comorbidity; 7)mortality; 8)access to care; 9)quality of care; and 10) cost. We have characterized these findings in relation to the scope of the first three domains of the 2012 Institute of Medicine report on epilepsy and its relevant first four recommendations. From 1994 through 2019, 76 publications on epilepsy-related epidemiologic and surveillance studies were identified. Over the past 25 years, CDC has expanded community, state, and national surveillance on epilepsy and supported epidemiologic studies by using multiple assessment methods and validated case-ascertainment criteria to identify epilepsy burden, epilepsy-related outcomes, and healthcare utilization in the general population or in population subgroups. Among identified research opportunities, studies on epilepsy incidence and risk factors, mortality, and cost are considered as important surveillance gaps. Other remaining gaps and suggested surveillance strategies are also proposed. Findings from this review may help epilepsy researchers and other stakeholders reference and prioritize future activities for epidemiologic and surveillance studies in epilepsy.

Overall and cause-specific premature mortality in epilepsy: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

We conducted a systematic review to ascertain the overall mortality and causes of premature mortality in epilepsy.

METHODOLOGY

We searched PubMed and Embase to identify relevant articles reporting mortality in epilepsy. An assessment of the methodological quality and overall quality of evidence of the identified studies was done using appropriate checklists. We extracted data from these studies reporting measures of overall and cause-specific mortality in epilepsy.

RESULTS

Sixty-three articles from fifty-six cohorts met the eligibility criteria, thirty-three population- or community-based and twenty-three hospital- or institutional-based studies. The majority of studies are from high-income countries (HIC). These studies reported overall excess mortality for people with epilepsy, with wide variability reported for population- or community-based studies and from low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Twenty-seven articles from twenty-three cohorts reported measures of mortality for cause-specific mortality in epilepsy. People with epilepsy from HIC and LMIC have a higher risk of dying from various causes compared with the general population. Those in LMIC, however, have a particularly high chance of dying from external causes such as drowning and suicide. We observed a decrement over time in measures of overall and cause-specific mortality in cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the heterogeneity in reports, our findings support the suggestions that people with epilepsy have an increased risk of premature mortality from various causes. Further work is needed to elucidate the mechanisms, to determine biomarkers for predicting those at risk, and to understand the implications of counseling and preventive strategies.

Premature mortality in poor health and low income adults with epilepsy

OBJECTIVE

To examine mortality and causes of death (CODs) in socioeconomically disadvantaged persons with epilepsy (PWEs) in the United States.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective open cohort analysis using Ohio Medicaid claims data between 1992 and 2008 to assess mortality and COD in 68,785 adult Medicaid beneficiaries with epilepsy. Case fatality (CF), mortality rates (MRs), standardized mortality ratios (SMRs), and years of potential life lost (YPLLs) were calculated. The SMRs were estimated to compare risk of death in PWEs with that in the general Medicaid population with and without disabilities. Proportionate mortality ratios (PMRs), YPLLs, and SMRs for specific COD were also obtained.

RESULTS

There were 12,630 deaths in PWEs. CF was 18.4%, the age-race-sex adjusted MR was 18.6/1,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 18.3-18.9). The SMR was 1.8 (95% CI, 1.8-1.9) when compared to the general Medicaid population, and was 1.4 (95% CI, 1.3-1.6) when compared to those with disabilities. The average YPLL was 16.9 years (range 1-47 years). Both epilepsy and comorbid conditions significantly contributed to premature mortality in PWEs. Cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and unintentional injuries were the most common COD and account for a large proportion of YPLLs. Deaths from epilepsy-related causes occurred in about 10% of the cases.

SIGNIFICANCE

Socioeconomically deprived PWEs, especially young adults, experience high mortality and die 17 years prematurely. The high mortality in Medicaid beneficiaries with epilepsy affirms that comorbid conditions and epilepsy play a crucial role in premature death. Management of comorbid conditions is, at a minimum, as important as epilepsy management, and therefore deserves more attention from physicians, particularly those who care for Medicaid beneficiaries with epilepsy.