A review of risk perceptions and other factors that influence flood mitigation behavior

Drivers of natural disaster risk-reduction actions and their temporal dynamics: Insights from surveys during an imminent hurricane threat and its aftermath

To improve preparedness for natural disasters, it is imperative to understand the factors that enable individual risk-reduction actions. This study offers such insights using innovative real-time (N = 871) and repeated (N = 255) surveys of a sample of coastal residents in Florida regarding flood preparations and their drivers during an imminent threat posed by Hurricane Dorian and its aftermath. Compared with commonly employed cross-sectional surveys, our methodology better represents relationships between preparedness actions undertaken during the disaster threat and their drivers derived from an extended version of Protection Motivation Theory (PMT). The repeated survey allows for examining temporal dynamics in these drivers. Our results confirm the importance of coping appraisals and show that risk perceptions relate more strongly to emergency protection decisions made during the period of the disaster threat than to decisions made well before. Moreover, we find that several personal characteristics that we add to the standard PMT framework significantly relate to undertaking preparedness actions, especially locus of control and social norms. Significant changes in key explanatory variables occur following the disaster threat, including a decline in risk perception, a potential learning effect in coping appraisals, and a decline in risk aversion. Our results confirm the advantage of the real-time and repeated survey approach in understanding both short- and long-term disaster preparedness actions.

A longitudinal investigation of risk perceptions and adaptation behavior in the US Gulf Coast

Climate change is occurring more rapidly than expected, requiring that people quickly and continually adapt to reduce human suffering. The reality is that climate change-related threats are unpredictable; thus, adaptive behavior must be continually performed even when threat saliency decreases (e.g. time has passed since climate-hazard exposure). Climate change-related threats are also intensifying; thus, new or more adaptive behaviors must be performed over time. Given the need to sustain climate change-related adaptation even when threat saliency decreases, it becomes essential to better understand how the relationship between risk perceptions and adaptation co-evolve over time. In this study, we present results from a probability-based representative sample of 2,774 Texas and Florida residents prospectively surveyed 5 times (2017-2022) in the presence and absence of exposure to tropical cyclones, a climate change-related threat. Distinct trajectories of personal risk perceptions emerged, with higher and more variable risk perceptions among the less educated and those living in Florida. Importantly, as tropical cyclone adaptation behaviors increased, personal risk perceptions decreased over time, particularly in the absence of storms, while future tropical cyclone risk perceptions remained constant. In sum, adapting occurs in response to current risk but may inhibit future action despite increasing future tropical cyclone risks. Our results suggest that programs and policies encouraging proactive adaptation investment may be warranted.

Risk perceptions of COVID-19 in Beijing: a cross-sectional study

Background

The Chinese government has ended the "dynamic zero-COVID" policy, and residents are now living together with the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Only a limited number of studies have investigated the specific content and structure of COVID-19-related risk perceptions, as well as their underlying determinants. This study measured the residents' risk perception of COVID-19 and analyzed the predictors of RP.

Methods

We conducted a comprehensive questionnaire-based survey among residents mostly in Beijing, using a specially designed scale consisting of 11 items to accurately measure COVID-19 risk perceptions. We then utilized multiple linear regression analysis to investigate the factors associated with risk perceptions.

Results

A total of 60,039 residents participated in the survey. Our study reveals that COVID-19-related worries are significantly influenced by other dimensions of RP (p < 0.001), except for perceived society's control of the epidemic. Several experiential and socio-demographic factors, including gender, educational level, and infectious experience, are notably correlated with all dimensions of risk perceptions of COVID-19.

Conclusion

This study evaluates the specific content and structure of COVID-19-related risk perceptions, as well as their determinants. It is essential to understand the risk perceptions and health-protective behaviors of residents with diverse educational levels, incomes, and medical histories.

Community resilience across Australia towards natural hazards: an application of the Conjoint Community Resiliency Assessment Measurement

Natural hazards can turn into disasters when not managed well. An important part of disaster risk reduction is to understand how well communities are prepared for natural hazards and how well they can cope with and recover from shocks in the long term. This research assesses self-reported community resilience and asks what makes a community resilient, using Australia as a case study. It reports on an Australian-wide online survey which included questions related to the Conjoint Community Resiliency Assessment Measurement, a subjective indicator, as well as questions about risk perception, well-being, and self-efficacy. Community resilience was found to be moderately high but scores for community leadership and preparedness were low. Perceived community resilience was positively correlated with age and those with high scores for self-efficacy and well-being. There was, as expected, an inverse relationship between reliance on external support during natural hazards and self-efficacy. The results complement previous studies which used different measures of community resilience.

Insights into the complementarity of natural disaster insurance purchases and risk reduction behavior

While flooding is the costliest natural disaster risk, public-sector investments provide incomplete protection. Moreover, individuals are in general reluctant to voluntarily invest in measures which limit damage costs from natural disasters. The moral hazard hypothesis argues that insured individuals take fewer other preparedness measures based on their assumption that their losses will be covered anyway. Conversely, the advantageous selection hypothesis argues that individuals view insurance and other risk reduction measures as complements. This study offers a comprehensive assessment of factors related to the separate uptake of natural disaster insurance and the flood-proofing of homes as well as why people may take both of these measures together. We use data from a survey conducted in Paris, France, in 2018, after several flood events, for a representative sample of 2976 residents facing different levels of flood risk. We perform both main effects regressions and interaction analyses to reveal that home adaptation to flooding is positively associated with comprehensive insurance coverage, which includes financial protection against natural disasters. Furthermore, actual and perceived risks, as well as awareness of official information on flood risk, are found to explain some of the relationship between home adaptation and comprehensive insurance purchase. We suggest several recommendations to policymakers based on these insights which aim to address insurance coverage gaps and the failure to take disaster risk reduction measures. In particular, groups in socially vulnerable situations may benefit from subsidized insurance, low interest loans, and decision aids to implement costly adaptation measures.

Health and Environmental Protective Behavioral Intentions for Reducing Harm from Water Pollutants

Understanding what motivates people to adopt protective behaviors is important in developing effective risk messaging. Motivations may vary depending on the nature of the risk and whether it poses a personal or impersonal threat. Water pollution creates both personal (human health) and impersonal (environmental) threats, yet few studies have examined people's motivations to protect both personal health and environmental health. Protection motivation theory (PMT) uses four key variables to predict what motivates individuals to protect themselves in relation to a perceived threat. Using data from an online survey (n = 621), we investigated the relationships between PMT variables related to health and environmental protective behavioral intentions related to toxic water pollutants among residents in Oregon, Idaho, and Washington, USA. Among PMT variables, high self-efficacy (belief in one's own capacity to carry out certain behaviors) significantly predicted both health and environmental protective behavioral intentions for water pollutants, while perceived severity of the threat was only significant in the environmental behavioral intentions model. Perceived vulnerability and response efficacy (belief that a specific behavior will effectively mitigate the threat) were significant in both models. Education level, political affiliation, and subjective knowledge of pollutants were significant predictors of environmental protective behavioral intentions, but not health protective behavioral intentions. The results of this study suggest that when communicating environmental risks of water pollution, highlighting self-efficacy in messaging is particularly important to promote protective environmental and personal health behavior.

A coupled agent-based model for France for simulating adaptation and migration decisions under future coastal flood risk

In this study, we couple an integrated flood damage and agent-based model (ABM) with a gravity model of internal migration and a flood risk module (DYNAMO-M) to project household adaptation and migration decisions under increasing coastal flood risk in France. We ground the agent decision rules in a framework of subjective expected utility theory. This method addresses agent's bounded rationality related to risk perception and risk aversion and simulates the impact of push, pull, and mooring factors on migration and adaptation decisions. The agents are parameterized using subnational statistics, and the model is calibrated using a household survey on adaptation uptake. Subsequently, the model simulates household adaptation and migration based on increasing coastal flood damage from 2015 until 2080. A medium population growth scenario is used to simulate future population development, and sea level rise (SLR) is assessed for different climate scenarios. The results indicate that SLR can drive migration exceeding 8000 and 10,000 coastal inhabitants for 2080 under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Although household adaptation to flood risk strongly impacts projected annual flood damage, its impact on migration decisions is small and falls within the 90% confidence interval of model runs. Projections of coastal migration under SLR are most sensitive to migration costs and coastal flood protection standards, highlighting the need for better characterization of both in modeling exercises. The modeling framework demonstrated in this study can be upscaled to the global scale and function as a platform for a more integrated assessment of SLR-induced migration.

What attributes influence rural household's willingness to get vaccinated for COVID-19? Perspectives from six Chinese townships

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccinations have been identified as the most effective mitigation strategy against the deadly virus. This has led developed nations to accelerate research and shorten the licensure process for COVID-19 vaccines, but these changes have caused widespread concerns about vaccine safety. Research literature has long indicated that citizens' perceptions of protective actions will determine their behaviors, and thus, the relationship between vaccine perception and vaccination intention needs to be assessed. To better understand vaccination willingness, especially in rural populations, this study surveyed 492 households from six townships in the Ya'an region of China's Sichuan Province in November 2020. The survey followed the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) framework for collecting perceptions about the influenza and COVID-19 vaccines as protective actions, information sources, emergency preparedness, emotional response, and demographic characteristics. The results showed that influenza vaccine perceptions significantly affected people's COVID-19 vaccination perceptions and intentions. Unlike previous vaccination willingness and other COVID-19 studies, this study found that perceptions of resource-related attributes and health-related attributes both affected COVID-19 vaccination intentions, but the former were slightly stronger than the latter. Moreover, these effects were strongest among respondents who had the most positive perceptions of their influenza vaccine experience. This study's findings will benefit local authorities in designing appropriate policies and measures (e.g., hazard education, risk communication, vaccination convenience enhancement) for increasing vaccination compliance for the current and future pandemics.

Risk evaluation and mitigation against flood danger in an arid environment. A case study (El Bayadh region, Algeria)

Floods are among the most serious and devastating phenomena of natural disasters. Cities adjacent to flood-prone areas in the last decades have played a major role in increasing the potential adverse effects of flood damage. This research study aims to evaluate and mitigate the risks of flood events in the El Bayadh region, which suffers from poor infrastructure and drained networks. To achieve this, it is necessary to evaluate rainfall intensities and their limits for durations from 0.167 to 24 h with return periods from 2 to 1000 years. Eight different frequency analysis distributions were fit to the historical rainfall data series over 43 years (1970-2012) using hypothesis-based goodness tests and information-based criteria. The most appropriate distributions were used to develop the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) and flood risk-duration-frequency (RDF) curves for the study area. The results show that high-intensity rainfall values last for short durations, while high flood risk values last for intermediate durations. The results of the flood RDF curves can provide useful information for policy makers to make the right decisions regarding the effectiveness of the region's protection structures against future flood risks.

Uncertainty in individual risk judgments associates with vulnerability and curtailed climate adaptation

Risk assessments are key for the effective management of potential environmental threats. Across probabilistic phenomena, climate change is an exemplar of paramount uncertainties. These uncertainties have been embraced in supporting governments' decisions; yet receive scarce attention when studying individual behavior. Analyzing a survey conducted in the USA, China, Indonesia, and the Netherlands (N=6242), we explore socio-economic, psychological, and behavioral differences between individuals who can subjectively assess risks, and those who are risk-uncertain. We find that risk-uncertain individuals are more likely to belong to societal subgroups classically considered as vulnerable, and have reduced capacities and intentions to adapt to hazards-specifically floods. The distinctions between risk-aware and risk-uncertain individuals indicate that ignoring differences in individuals' capacity to assess risks could amount to persistent vulnerability and undermine climate-resilience efforts. While we use floods emblematically, these finding have consequences for the standard practice of dropping or bootstrapping uncertain responses, irrespective of the hazard, with implications for environmental management.

Risk perception and behavioral intentions in facing compound climate-related hazards

Compound climate-related events are a complex combination of climate drivers and hazards leading to a significant impact on natural and anthropic systems. Owing to their complexity and critical consequences, interdisciplinary undertaking is required to improve risk analysis, management, and communication. Although prior research in cognitive sciences extensively investigated risk perception in case of a single hazard, the analysis of compound hazards perception is still an open issue. Here, based on cognitive psychology insights, we empirically investigate how individuals' risk perception is shaped by the subjective relevance attributed to different causal cues entailed in a compound event scenario. The results revealed that the subjective validity assigned to specific evidence presented in the composite scenario leads perceived risk related to one of the outcomes (i.e., flooding and wildfire) to prevail over the other. Moreover, the relevance of different cues is likely to affect participants' automatic behavioral intentions (stay at home vs. evacuation).

The Relationship between Demographics and Knowledge Risk Perception of High School Teachers: Training as a Mediator

As a knowledge-based career, teachers can be exposed to knowledge risks. Since risk perception is the product of the experiences, values, memories and ideologies of individuals, the ways of perceiving knowledge risks could be useful for setting up prevention and mitigation strategies for these kinds of risks. The present paper aimed at analyzing the relationship between the demographics and the knowledge risk perception of high school teachers. The role of a teacher’s training as a mediator of said relationship was analyzed as well. Using a sample of high school teachers working in Italian schools, a questionnaire was administered to gather data, and structural equation modeling analysis was employed to test the hypotheses. The results showed that demographics had a significant effect on teachers’ knowledge risk perception and that training mediated this relationship. The study could be helpful for educational institutions that want to train their teachers to be prepared to face risky events related to knowledge management.

Effect of individual characteristics, risk perception, self-efficacy and social support on willingness to relocate due to floods and landslides

People may have to leave their home, environment, region and country because of disasters or disaster risks. Effective and efficient disaster risk reduction activities involving the community can reduce disaster risks and enable people to reside more safely and peacefully in their environment. The objective of this study was to investigate whether individual characteristics, risk perception, self-efficacy and perceived social support were correlated with the willingness to relocate due to floods and landslides. The data were collected from 947 people residing in Gümüşhane Province (Türkiye) using a survey. In the study, a total of ten models were tested with the help of ordinal logistic regression analysis. Consequently, the participants' willingness to relocate due to landslides was determined to be higher than the willingness to relocate due to floods. University students and people with chronic diseases and flood and landslide experiences had a greater willingness to relocate. Residence duration and informal social support were negatively correlated with relocation willingness. Those who believed that they could protect themselves in the event of a flood and landslide were more likely to relocate. Among risk perceptions, probability increased relocation willingness mostly due to floods, while fear increased relocation willingness mostly due to landslides. This study attempted to provide policy makers and scientists insight into disaster risk reduction and disaster risk communication related to relocation.

Behavioral biases and heuristics in perceptions of COVID-19 risks and prevention decisions

This study adds to an emerging literature on the factors associated with individual perceptions of COVID-19 risks and decision-making processes related to prevention behaviors. We conducted a survey in the Netherlands (N = 3600) in June-July 2020 when the first peak of COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths had passed, and lockdown measures had been eased. Dutch policies relied heavily on individual prevention behaviors to mitigate a second infection wave. We examine whether biases and heuristics that have been observed in how people perceive and respond to other risks also apply to the newly emergent risks posed by COVID-19. The results indicate that people simplify risk using threshold models and that risk perceptions are related with personal experiences with COVID-19 and experiences of close others, supporting the availability heuristic. We also observe that prevention behavior is more strongly associated with COVID-19 risk perceptions and feelings toward the risk than with local indicators of COVID-19 risks, and that prevention behavior is related with herding. Support for government lockdown measures is consistent with preferences that may contribute to the not-in-my-term-of-office bias. In addition, we offer insights into the role of trust, worry, and demographic characteristics in shaping perceptions of COVID-19 risks and how these factors relate with individual prevention behaviors and support for government prevention measures. We provide several lessons for the design of policies that limit COVID-19 risks, including risk communication strategies and appeals to social norms. Perhaps more importantly, our analysis allows for learning lessons to mitigate the risks of future pandemics.

Wildfire imagery reduces risk information-seeking among homeowners as property wildfire risk increases

Negative imagery of destruction may induce or inhibit action to reduce risks from climate-exacerbated hazards, such as wildfires. This has generated conflicting assumptions among experts who communicate with homeowners: half of surveyed wildfire practitioners perceive a lack of expert agreement about the effect of negative imagery (a burning house) on homeowner behavior, yet most believe negative imagery is more engaging. We tested whether this expectation matched homeowner response in the United States. In an online experiment, homeowners who viewed negative imagery reported more negative emotions but the same behavioral intentions compared to those who viewed status-quo landscape photos. In a pre-registered field experiment, homeowners who received a postcard showing negative imagery were equally likely, overall, to visit a wildfire risk webpage as those whose postcard showed a status quo photo. However, the negative imagery decreased webpage visits as homeowners' wildfire risk increased. These results illustrate the importance of testing assumptions to encourage behavioral adaptation to climate change.

Priming close social contact protective behaviors enhances protective social norms perceptions, protection views, and self-protective behaviors during disasters

Many people do not make choices that minimize risk in the face of health and environmental threats. Using pre-registered analyses, we tested whether a risk communication that primed perceptions about health-protective preparation and behavior of close social contacts promoted protection views and protective behaviors. From December 10-24, 2020, we fielded a 2 (threat vignette: wildfire or COVID-19) x 3 (social contact prime: control, inaction, or action) experiment to a representative sample of 1,108 California residents facing increased COVID-19 cases/deaths, who had recently experienced the most destructive wildfire season in California history. Outcome variables were protection views and protective behavior (i.e., information seeking). Across threat conditions, stronger social norms, efficacy, and worry predicted greater protection views and some protective behaviors. Priming social-contact action resulted in greater COVID-19 information-seeking compared to the control. In the wildfire smoke condition, priming social contact action and inaction increased perceived protective behavior social norms compared to the control; social norms partially mediated the relationships of priming with protection views and protective behaviors; and having existing mask supplies enhanced the relationship between priming inaction and greater protection views compared to priming action or the control. Findings highlight the importance of social influence for health protection views and protective behaviors. Communications enhancing social norms that are sensitive to resource contexts may help promote protective behaviors.

Forty Years of Risk Analysis: A Scientometric Overview

Risk Analysis was first published in 1981, established with a vision to provide a platform for inquiry into fundamental risk-related concepts and theories, and to disseminate new knowledge about methods and approaches for identifying, analyzing, evaluating, managing, and communicating risk. The journal has also contributed significantly to a scientific understanding of specific risks related to human health and safety, engineering, ecological, and social systems. Published on behalf of the Society for Risk Analysis, the journal has become a leading platform over its 40-year history. Complementing recent celebratory overviews and perspectives on the evolution, achievements, and future challenges for Risk Analysis, this article presents a scientometric overview of the journal between 1981 and 2020. The study presents high-level insights in the journal publication trends and structure and trends in the leading countries/regions, institutions, and authors, in relation to their respective collaboration networks. Furthermore, the structure and evolution of research focus issues is analyzed, and highly cited publications are identified. The findings are primarily intended to provide high-level insights, which may be useful for early career academics and risk practitioners to understand the structure and development of the research domain, and its main contributors and topics, and for experienced researchers to reflect on the achievements and future developments.

Factors Influencing Public Participation in Community Disaster Mitigation Activities: A Comparison of Model and Nonmodel Disaster Mitigation Communities

Public participation in community-organized disaster mitigation activities is important for improving disaster mitigation capacity. With data from 260 questionnaires, this study compared the current status of public participation in model disaster mitigation communities and nonmodel communities in a geological-disaster-prone area. Three community-organized disaster mitigation education activities were compared cross-sectionally. A binary logistic regression was used to analyze the effects of attitude, perceived behavioral control, disaster experience, and other key factors on the public's choice to participate in community disaster mitigation activities. The analysis results indicated that model communities had higher public participation in two efforts, evacuation drills and self-help skills training, and lower participation in activities that invited them to express their feedback than nonmodel communities. The influence of attitudinal factors on the decision to participate in disaster mitigation activities had a high similarity across community types. The public participation in model disaster mitigation communities is influenced by factors such as subjective norms and participation cognition; the behavior of people in nonmodel communities is influenced by factors such as previous experience with disasters, perceived behavioral control, risk perception, and participation cognition and has a greater potential for disaster mitigation community construction. This study provides practical evidence and theoretical support for strengthening the sustainable development of disaster mitigation community building.

Vulnerability to typhoons: A comparison of consequence and driving factors between Typhoon Hato (2017) and Typhoon Mangkhut (2018)

Typhoon disasters have caused casualties, property loss, and other negative impacts to social and economic development. Vulnerability is an important component of typhoon risk. However, little is known about the contributions of vulnerability factors and their interaction effects on typhoon-induced losses at a fine scale. Focusing on the vulnerability measures of Typhoon Hato in 2017 and Typhoon Mangkhut in 2018, this study aims to quantify the contribution and interactive effects of physical and socioeconomic factors on vulnerability based on the GeoDetector method and determine the factors that account for most of the change in vulnerability. The results show that from Typhoon Hato in 2017 to Typhoon Mangkhut in 2018, the vulnerability of the economy and houses decrease on average. Rain intensity and wind intensity are the dominant factors of disaster loss for Typhoon Hato and Typhoon Mangkhut, respectively. Vegetation cover and landform explain vulnerability better than average slope in most instances. For different loss types, the dominant socioeconomic vulnerability factor is different. For both typhoons, emergency transfer has a higher determining power (q) ranking for the population vulnerability, while the percentage of the GDP made up of primary industry have higher q ranking for economic vulnerability. The dominant interaction effects between two vulnerability factors differ depending on the typhoon and loss type but show a nonlinear enhancement effect in most cases. Moreover, changes in the maximum 4-hour accumulated rainfall account for most of the change in vulnerability between Hato and Mangkhut. Overall, the results can be conducive to understanding the complexity of vulnerability to typhoons and provide a reference for possible indicators for vulnerability assessment models, and determining the reasons for changes in vulnerability can be constructive to the formulation of specific policies for disaster prevention and mitigation.

Lessons Learned from the 2019 Nebraska Floods: Implications for Emergency Management, Mass Care, and Food Security

This qualitative study aimed to understand the actions, challenges, and lessons learned for addressing the food and water needs of flood survivors, with a special focus on vulnerable populations and the implications for food security, to inform future disaster response efforts in the U.S. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted from January to August 2020 with the local, state, and national stakeholders (n = 27) involved in the disaster response to the 2019 Nebraska floods, particularly those involved in providing mass care, such as food, water, and shelter, for the flood survivors. The challenge themes were related to limited risk awareness and apathy, the large scope of the impact, the difficulty with coordination and communication, the challenges in risk communication, the limited local-level capacity, and the perceived stigma and fear limiting the utilization of governmental assistance. The mitigation recommendations included the need to consider zoning and infrastructure updates, the implementation of efficient systems that leverage technology for coordination and communication, and guidance on how to address certain human factors. This study reinforces previous findings related to flood disasters and adds to our understanding of disaster response and food insecurity. The practical takeaways from this study can inform future flood-related disaster mitigation approaches in Nebraska and other rural areas.

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Urban Community Function Loss in China under Flood Disaster Based on Social Network Analysis Model

The increasing frequency of floods is causing an increasing impact on urban communities. To identify the key influencing factors of functional loss in Chinese urban communities under floods, this paper explored the influencing factors and factor combinations through a social network analysis approach using the 265 cases of urban communities in China affected by floods collected from 2017-2021 as research data. The key influencing factors and factor combinations were identified comprehensively using multiple indicator analyses such as core-periphery structure, node centrality, and factor pairing. The analysis results showed that "road disruption", "housing inundation", and "power interruption" are the three most critical factors affecting the functional loss of urban communities in China under floods, followed by "residents trapped", "enterprises flooded", and "silt accumulation". In addition, "road disruption-housing inundation", "housing inundation-residents trapped", and "road disruption-residents trapped" are the most common combinations of influencing factors.

Agent-based Modeling to Evaluate Human-Environment Interactions in Community Flood Risk Mitigation

This article deals with household-level flood risk mitigation. We present an agent-based modeling framework to simulate the mechanism of natural hazard and human interactions, to allow evaluation of community flood risk, and to predict various adaptation outcomes. The framework considers each household as an autonomous, yet socially connected, agent. A Beta-Bernoulli Bayesian learning model is first applied to measure changes of agents' risk perceptions in response to stochastic storm surges. Then the risk appraisal behaviors of agents, as a function of willingness-to-pay for flood insurance, are measured. Using Miami-Dade County, Florida as a case study, we simulated four scenarios to evaluate the outcomes of alternative adaptation strategies. Results show that community damage decreases significantly after a few years when agents become cognizant of flood risks. Compared to insurance policies with pre-Flood Insurance Rate Maps subsidies, risk-based insurance policies are more effective in promoting community resilience, but it will decrease motivations to purchase flood insurance, especially for households outside of high-risk areas. We evaluated vital model parameters using a local sensitivity analysis. Simulation results demonstrate the importance of an integrated adaptation strategy in community flood risk management.

Advanced machine learning algorithms for flood susceptibility modeling - performance comparison: Red Sea, Egypt

Floods are among the most devastating environmental hazards that directly and indirectly affect people's lives and activities. In many countries, sustainable environmental management requires the assessment of floods and the likely flood-prone areas to avoid potential hazards. In this study, the performance and capabilities of seven machine learning algorithms (MLAs) for flood susceptibility mapping were tested, evaluated, and compared. These MLAs, including support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), boosted regression tree (BRT), functional data analysis (FDA), general linear model (GLM), and multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA), were tested for the area between Safaga and Ras Gharib cities, Red Sea, Egypt. A geospatial database was developed with eleven flood-related factors, namely altitude, slope aspect, lithology, land use/land cover (LULC), slope length (LS), topographic wetness index (TWI), slope angle, profile curvature, plan curvature, stream power index (SPI), and hydrolithology units. In addition, 420 actual flooded areas were recorded from the study area to create a flood inventory map. The inventory data were randomly divided into training group with 70% and validation group with 30%. The flood-related factors were tested with a multicollinearity test, the variance inflation factor (VIF) was less than 2.135, the tolerance (TOL) was more than 0.468, and their importance was evaluated with a partial least squares (PLS) method. The results show that RF performed the best with the highest AUC (area under curve) value of 0.813, followed by GLM with 0.802, MARS with 0.801, BRT with 0.777, MDA with 0.768%, FDA with 0.763, and SVM with 0.733. The results of this study and the flood susceptibility maps could be useful for environmental mitigation, future development activities in the area, and flood control areas.

As California burns: the psychology of wildfire- and wildfire smoke-related migration intentions

Climate change impacts and rapid development in the wildland-urban interface are increasing population exposure and vulnerability to the harmful effects of wildfire and wildfire smoke. The direct and indirect effects of these hazards may impact future mobility decisions among populations at risk. To better understand how perceptions and personal experience inform wildfire- and smoke-associated migration intentions, we surveyed a representative sample of 1108 California residents following the 2020 wildfire season. We assessed the associations between threat appraisal, coping appraisal, personal experience, migration intentions, the impact of wildfire and smoke on migration intentions and place satisfaction, and the potential likelihood of future migration. Results indicate that roughly a third of our sample intended to move in the next 5 years, nearly a quarter of whom reported that wildfire and smoke impacted their migration decision at least a moderate amount. Prior negative outcomes (e.g., evacuating, losing property) were associated with intentions to migrate. Perceived susceptibility and prior negative outcomes were associated with a greater impact of wildfire and smoke on migration intentions. For those intending to remain in place, prior negative outcomes were associated with a greater impact of wildfire and smoke on place satisfaction, which was in turn associated with a greater reported likelihood of future migration. Our findings suggest that perceptions of and experiences with wildfire and smoke may impact individual mobility decisions. These insights may be leveraged to inform risk communications and outreach campaigns to encourage wildfire and smoke risk mitigation behaviors and to improve climate migration modeling.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11111-022-00409-w.

Flood risk perception and communication: The role of hazard proximity

Climate change-induced extreme events have increased worldwide, including riverine flooding in rural areas. Risk communication is an effective mechanism that affects risk perception and can significantly reduce flood risk. This study quantifies risk perception and communication in flood-prone rural areas of District Dera Ghazi Khan, Pakistan. The rural communities were divided into two zones based on the distance from rivers, i.e., Zone 1 (households within 0-3 km) and Zone 2 (households within 3-6 km). After a thorough literature review, indicators measured on the Likert scale were selected for risk perception and communication. Using Yamane's sampling, 420 samples were collected using a household survey. Chi-square and t-tests were used to identify differences between the two zones. Linear regression was performed to identify the socioeconomic determinants of risk communication and perception. Results showed that the people living away from the river had higher risk perception and received better risk communication than their peers. The main reason was attributed to their past flood experiences. The study also found a strong correlation between flood risk perception and risk communication. Hazard proximity was also found to affect risk perception and communication. People with higher risk perception are likely to seek risk communication information and engage in flood preparedness and mitigation measures. This study provides an insight into the need for risk communication for improving the effectiveness of flood risk reduction.

Assessment of Public Flood Risk Perception and Influencing Factors: An Example of Jiaozuo City, China

There are many studies showing that public flood risk perception may promote people’s motivation to reduce flood risk and enhance their coping behavior, thus providing useful insights for flood risk management. The purpose of this article is to estimate residents’ flood risk perception in Jiaozuo City and to identify the influencing factors. A questionnaire survey method was used to collect data and a composite index was constructed to measure public risk perception. Each respondent’s grade of flood risk perception was calculated using the relationship between the standard deviation (SD) and the mean value (MV) of flood risk perception index (RPI) scores. Moreover, the hypotheses concerning different groups were tested using an independent sample T-test and one-way ANOVA (analysis of variance), and the group differences in flood risk perception on each observed dependent variable were explored using post hoc tests. The flood risk perception of the total respondents was divided into three levels based on the SD and MV of RPI scores: low (68.4%), moderate (13.7%), and high (17.9%). Respondents with low education, low income, less flood experiences, and who have married, lived in rural areas or near rivers/reservoirs had a higher flood risk perception than others, and respondents who lived in flood storage areas had a lower risk perception. Moreover, the ability to mitigate floods and the trust in flood-control projects were negatively related to the flood risk perception.

How does flood resistance affect learning from flood experiences? A study of two communities in Central China

Property-level flood risk adaptation (PLFRA) has received significant attention in recent years, as flood resilience has become increasingly important in flood risk management. Earlier studies have indicated that learning from flood experiences can affect flood risk perception and the adoption of PLFRA measures; however, it remains unclear whether and how this learning process can be affected by flood control infrastructure-specifically, the level of flood resistance it offers. This study attempts to answer the question: Do people living in environments with different levels of flood resistance learn different lessons from flood experience, manifested in flood risk perception and PLFRA? We present a comparative study of the rural village of Xinnongcun and the urban community of Nanhuyayuan in Central China. In-person interviews with a total of 34 local residents were conducted to understand how flood experiences affect flood risk perception and PLFRA. We find that learning from flood experiences in the highly flood-resistant environment (Nanhuyayuan) does not contribute to flood risk perception but further enhances flood resistance, whereas learning in a less flood-resistant environment (Xinnongcun) leads to a better understanding of flood risk and promotes PLFRA. We argue that flood resistance can affect the learning from flood experiences. High flood resistance can suppress PLFRA through a different learning process that involves learning inertia and path dependency. In the search for flood resilience, this begs society to re-examine the widespread assertion that both structural and nonstructural measures are important in flood risk management.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-022-03401-3.

Perception risk, preventive behaviors and assessing the relationship between their various dimensions: A cross-sectional study in the Covid-19 peak period

The Covid-19 epidemic is known as "the deadliest plague of the century" that has overshadowed various aspects of human life. Despite mutations in SARS-CoV-2, the development of new strains, and the escape of immunity, preventive health behaviors continue to play a key role in controlling this epidemic. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between risk perception and the performance of preventive behaviors of people in the Covid-19 peak period in society. This anonymous online survey was conducted with 1950 people in 30 provinces of Iran. The results showed that by increasing the score of cognitive, social and emotional structures of people's perception of risk, their performance in following health recommendations increases.

Flood risk public perception in flash flood-prone areas of Punjab, Pakistan

Floods due to higher severity of destruction are considered the most destructive natural hazards in the world. Initiating the appropriate strategies of disaster risk reduction is necessary to understand risk perception. This study attempted to examine the flood risk public perception in flash flood-prone areas of Punjab, Pakistan. A simple random sampling technique was used for collecting the data of 560 household respondents, and a logistic regression model was employed to make out the factors of flood risk perception. In classification of low and high perceived risk of relevant indicators, flood risk perception index was constructed. Risk perception is significantly influenced by socioeconomic factors which have a direct impact on disaster preparedness and potential adaptive capacities. After that, potential correlation of risk perception with the demographic status of respondents was investigated in this study. Empirical estimates indicated as respondents' schooling, ownership of house, size of household, employment status and past flood experience significantly influence flood risk perception. Risk perception determinants also diverse among both communities portray spatial differences. Inadequate protection measures from public authorities and institutions, limited preparedness regarding actions of private mitigation, reduced intensity of reliance in institutions and authorities are major reasons for high risk and lower mitigation in these flash flood-prone areas. The outcomes of this research can facilitate to understand flood risk perception and its factors for conniving appropriate management plan of flood risk and communication strategies. Furthermore, this research can help consider multidimensional flood risks and its spatial vibrancy from the perspective of social science.

Epidemic risk perceptions in Italy and Sweden driven by authority responses to COVID-19

Understanding public risk perception is an essential step to develop effective measures reducing the spread of disease outbreaks. Here we compare epidemic risk perceptions during two different periods of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy and Sweden. To this end, we analyzed the results of two nationwide surveys carried out in both countries in two periods characterized by different infection rates: August (N = 4154) and November 2020 (N = 4168). Seven domains of epidemic risk perception were considered: likelihood along with (individual and population) impact, preparedness, and knowledge. The role of the context and period was explored in stratified and formal interaction analyses. In both countries, we found an intensification in epidemic risk perception from August to November 2020. Being male, older and having a higher relative income were associated with a lower perception of the likelihood of epidemics, while excess mortality was marginally related to higher odds. Compared to Sweden, Italy had a higher increase in perception of likelihood and impact, and a concurrent decrease in preparedness and knowledge. The different authority response to the COVID-19 pandemic is associated with a different change over time in risk perception. Regional differences in terms of excess mortality only marginally explained differences in risk perception.

Wastewater System Inflow/Infiltration and Residential Pluvial Flood Damage Mitigation in Canada

Pluvial flooding in urban areas is one of the most significant drivers of disaster loss in Canada. Damages during pluvial flood events are associated with overwhelmed urban drainage (stormwater and wastewater) systems. During the period from 2013 to 2021, Canadian property and casualty insurers reported approximately CAD 2 billion in personal property (residential) pluvial sewer backup claims during flood catastrophes. There has been growing interest in managing pluvial urban flood risk, notably through newly funded national programs focused on climate change adaptation. These programs have included the development of new guidelines and standards focused on managing the underlying factors contributing to urban and basement flooding. Inflow and infiltration (I/I) has received limited attention in the pluvial flood literature, however. Informed by significant engagement with practitioners in Canada, this paper provides a review of the issue of I/I into wastewater systems and its relation to pluvial flooding. The paper will address concerns related to private property engagement in I/I and urban pluvial flood reduction programs. Both improved technical standards and administrative support are needed to ensure that wastewater infrastructure is less susceptible to I/I over its lifecycle.

Determining Flood Zonation Maps, Using New Ensembles of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making, Bivariate Statistics, and Artificial Neural Network

Golestan Province is one of the most vulnerable areas to catastrophic flood events in Iran. The flood severity in this region has grown dramatically during the last decades, demanding a major investigation. Accordingly, an authentic map providing detailed information on floods is required to reduce future flood disasters. Three ensemble models produced by the combination of Evaluation Based on Distance from Average Solution (EDAS) and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP) with Frequency Ratio (FR), and Weights of Evidence (WOE) are used to quantify the map flood susceptibility in Golestan Province, in the north of Iran. Ten flood effective criteria, namely altitude, slope degree, slope aspect, plan curvature, distance from rivers, Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), rainfall, soil type, geology, and land use, are considered for the modeling process. The flood zonation maps are validated by the receiver operating curve (ROC). The results show that the most precise model is MLP-FR (AUROC = 0.912), followed by EDAS-FR-AHP (AUROC = 0.875), and EDAS-WOE-AHP (AUROC = 0.845). The high accuracies of all methods applied to illustrate their capability in predicting flood susceptibility in future studies.

Does Trust Help to Improve Residents' Perceptions of the Efficacy of Disaster Preparedness? Evidence from Wenchuan and Lushan Earthquakes in Sichuan Province, China

Disaster preparation can reduce the impact of an earthquake on residents. Residents are more likely to undertake disaster preparedness if they perceive it to be effective. However, few studies have analyzed the influence of trust on this perception. This study surveyed 327 households in areas stricken by the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes to explore these issues. Trust was divided into government trust, emotional trust, and social trust, while the efficacy of disaster preparedness was divided into self-efficacy and response efficacy. A partial least squares structural equation model was used to explore the influence of trust on perceptions of the efficacy of disaster preparedness. The results show that: (1) government trust can directly increase perceived efficacy and indirectly increase self-efficacy via emotional trust; (2) emotional trust can directly increase self-efficacy; (3) social trust can directly reduce self-efficacy while indirectly increasing it by increasing emotional trust. This study deepens our understanding of the relationship between trust and perceptions of the efficacy of disaster preparedness. This study can provide inspiration to improve risk communication and construct systems of community-based disaster-prevention.

A Protection-Motivation Perspective to Explain Intention to Use and Continue to Use Mobile Warning Systems

Mobile emergency warning apps are essential for effective emergency communication – of course, provided the population intends to use them. Drawing on protection motivation theory, the study validated a psychometric model to explain what motivates individuals to install a warning app for the first time and to keep using it over time. Multi-group covariance-based structural equation modeling was used to model the answers to a survey that measured the drivers of intention to begin using or intention to continue using a warning app. The model shows that, for both non-users and users, trust, social influence, and response efficacy positively and maladaptive rewards negatively affect intention to use and intention to continue use warning apps. However, perceived vulnerability influences only intention to use, whereas response cost and self-efficacy affect continued use intention. Hence, this study enhances the theoretical understanding of technology-enabled protection behaviors and provides practitioners with a list of factors to consider for pushing the adoption and continued use of emergency warning applications.

Flood Risk in Urban Areas: Modelling, Management and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Review

The modelling and management of flood risk in urban areas are increasingly recognized as global challenges. The complexity of these issues is a consequence of the existence of several distinct sources of risk, including not only fluvial, tidal and coastal flooding, but also exposure to urban runoff and local drainage failure, and the various management strategies that can be proposed. The high degree of vulnerability that characterizes such areas is expected to increase in the future due to the effects of climate change, the growth of the population living in cities, and urban densification. An increasing awareness of the socio-economic losses and environmental impact of urban flooding is clearly reflected in the recent expansion of the number of studies related to the modelling and management of urban flooding, sometimes within the framework of adaptation to climate change. The goal of the current paper is to provide a general review of the recent advances in flood-risk modelling and management, while also exploring future perspectives in these fields of research.

Community Disaster Resilience and Risk Perception in Earthquake-Stricken Areas of China

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study is to further deepen our understanding of the relationship between community resilience and disaster risk perception of residents, so as to provide beneficial enlightenment for the construction of community resilience disaster prevention system and disaster risk management.

METHODS

This study surveyed 327 rural households in four counties of Sichuan Province, China, that were affected by the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes. Community disaster resilience was divided into five dimensions: connection and caring, resources, transformative potential, disaster management, and information and communication. Residents' disaster risk perception was divided into three dimensions: possibility, threat, and worry. This study analyzed the characteristics of community disaster resilience and residents' disaster risk perceptions. Ordinary least squares (OLS) methods were used to explore the correlations between these factors.

RESULTS

The results show that (1) Residents' overall disaster risk perception was at a moderate level, and the community's overall disaster resilience were above the moderate level. (2) Community connection and caring has a positive significant correlation with the possibility perception of disaster occurrence; transformative potential has a negative significant correlation with the possibility perception of disaster occurrence; the overall community disaster resilience has negative significant correlations with the possibility and the overall residents' perception of disaster risk occurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

The implication for the local government is that the government should appropriately increase its contact with external institutions/organizations, especially some Non-Governmental Organization, to strengthen the resilience and disaster prevention capacity of the community. Establish and improve information and communication networks to ensure the timely and effective transmission of effective disaster information, and strengthen the supervision of the dissemination of false information to reduce the losses caused by false information to residents. Attention should be paid to psychological counseling for people in disaster-hit areas to reduce the psychological trauma of the disaster.

Rethinking Risk Perception and its Importance for Explaining Natural Hazard Preparedness Behavior

Psychological theory suggests there is a positive association between risk perception and protective behavior. Empirical research has, however, found mixed support for the positive link between risk perception and protective behavior. One explanation for the inconsistent link is the way in which risk perception has been conceptualized and/or operationalized in past research. Specifically, few studies acknowledge differences in hazard severity and how it might affect risk perception and protective behavior. Past research has also tended to overlook the importance of emotional appraisal in relation to perceived hazard consequences. To address these inconsistencies in past research, 337 people living in a cyclone-prone location were recruited to participate in an online study. In this study, respondents were randomly presented with one of five hypothetical cyclone scenarios, which differed in objective severity. Respondents were also presented with a survey, which assessed risk perception, protective action perceptions (or coping appraisal), and intentions to perform short-term protective behaviors. As hypothesized, risk perception significantly increased preparedness intentions when controlling for hazard severity, hazard probability, and protective action perceptions. Moreover, the degree to which respondents associated negative emotions with predicted damage was also a relatively strong predictor of preparedness intentions. Overall, the findings support the theoretical link between risk perception and protective behavior and provide a new method of assessing risk perception in cross-sectional research. On a practical level, the results suggest that increasing risk perception should promote protective behavior in response to natural hazards.

A Stochastic Conflict Resolution Optimization Model for Flood Management in Detention Basins: Application of Fuzzy Graph Model

Floods are a natural disaster of significant concern because of their considerable damages to people’s livelihood. To this extent, there is a critical need to enhance flood management techniques by establishing proper infrastructure, such as detention basins. Although intelligent models may be adopted for flood management by detention basins, there is a literature gap on the optimum design of such structures while facing flood risks. The presented study filled this research gap by introducing a methodology to obtain the optimum design of detention basins using a stochastic conflict resolution optimization model considering inflow hydrographs uncertainties. This optimization model was developed by minimizing the conditional value-at-risk (CvaR) of flood overtopping, downstream flood damage, and deficit risk of water demand, as well as the deviation of flood overtopping and downstream damage based on non-linear interval number programming (NINP), for four different outlets types via a robust optimization tool, namely the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-III (NSGA-III). Conflict resolution was performed using the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) technique, enhanced by fuzzy preferences, to comply with the authorities’ priorities. Results indicated that the proposed framework could effectively design optimum detention basins consistent with the regional and hydrological standards.

Environmental Value and Pro-environmental Behavior Among Young Adults: The Mediating Role of Risk Perception and Moral Anger

This study aims to identify the relationship between students' environmental value (EV) and pro-environmental behavior (PEB) within a values-belief-norm framework. To conduct an empirical study, we used a sample of 558 online surveys and adopted the partial least squares path modeling method to test the relationships between variables in the conceptual model. The results indicate that EV positively predicted PEB among young adults. In addition, we highlight that risk perception (RP) and moral anger (MA) play critical chain mediating roles in the relationship between EV and PEB. This study has meaningful implications for practitioners seeking to encourage the public's ecofriendly behavior by suggesting ways to encourage RP and stimulate individuals' moral emotions about the environment.

Perceptions of Social Responsibility for Community Resilience to Flooding: A Comparison between Communities in Indonesia and the UK

Over the last few decades, flood hazards have had a greater impact on society, meaning that communities increasingly need to work together to enhance their resilience. Literature suggests that preparedness to flooding events is generally low as most individuals do not take protective actions. Therefore, there is a need to stimulate individuals’ actions that increase their own and their communities’ resilience to flooding. Various factors must be addressed to encourage individuals to take action, such as providing information to improve risk perception, understanding cognitive processes that interpret environmental stimuli against the mental model, and considering social and cultural influences. This paper argues that Social Responsibility (SR), defined as an individual willingness to take up actions that benefit society, is part of a pre-existing mental model that can explain intentions to take preparedness actions that improve community resilience. Due to differing socio-cultural contexts, the SR perceptions of communities in different parts of the world may differ. In order to investigate this phenomenon, data of SR perceptions obtained from 180 completed questionnaires were collected from flooded and non-flooded communities in Semarang, Indonesia, and then compared against those obtained from 313 questionnaires based on a survey of communities in Birmingham and London in the UK. The results suggest that Indonesian communities demonstrate a higher level of SR scores than UK communities. A comparison of SR scores between flooded and non-flooded communities in the UK shows a higher level of SR in flooded communities. In contrast, the comparison between corresponding Indonesian communities indicates an almost similar level of SR. A comparison of SR scores between Indonesian and UK flooded communities shows a higher level of SR in Indonesian communities across several measures. Further comparison of SR scores between Indonesia and UK non-flooded communities demonstrates higher SR in Indonesian communities in all but one measure. This suggests that experience of flooding has a much stronger influence on raising SR perceptions in UK communities. Socio-cultural background may explain these differences in SR perceptions, particularly, in relation to collectivism orientation and the close-knit nature of Indonesian communities. Although higher SR perceptions do not necessarily mean higher levels of preparedness actions, this finding illuminates the important influence of socio-cultural context on community resilience enhancing efforts that rely on collective actions by individuals.

Individual hurricane evacuation intentions during the COVID-19 pandemic: insights for risk communication and emergency management policies

The U.S. 2020 hurricane season was extraordinary because of a record number of named storms coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic. This study draws lessons on how individual hurricane preparedness is influenced by the additional risk stemming from a pandemic, which turns out to be a combination of perceptions of flood and pandemic risks that have opposite effects on preparedness behavior. We conducted a survey in early June 2020 of 600 respondents in flood-prone areas in Florida to obtain insights into households' risk perceptions and preparedness for the upcoming hurricane season under COVID-19. The results show that concerns over COVID-19 dominated flood risk perceptions and negatively impacted people's evacuation intentions. Whereas hotel costs were the main obstacle to evacuating during Hurricane Dorian in 2019 in the same geographic study area, the main evacuation obstacle identified in the 2020 hurricane season is COVID-19. Our statistical analyses investigating the factors influencing evacuation intentions show that older individuals are less likely to evacuate under a voluntary order, because they are more concerned about the consequences of becoming infected by COVID-19. We observe similar findings based on a real-time survey we conducted in Florida with another group of respondents under the threat of Hurricane Eta at the end of the hurricane season in November 2020. We discuss the implications of our findings for risk communication and emergency management policies that aim to improve hurricane preparedness when dealing with additional health risks such as a pandemic, a situation that may be exacerbated under the future climate.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11069-021-05064-2.

Anticipating sea-level rise and human migration: A review of empirical evidence and avenues for future research

Sea-level rise (SLR) threatens millions of people living in coastal areas through permanent inundation and other SLR-related hazards. Migration is one way for people to adapt to these coastal changes, but presents an enormous policy challenge given the number of people affected. Knowledge about the relationship between SLR-related hazards and migration is therefore important to allow for anticipatory policymaking. In recent years, an increasing number of empirical studies have investigated, using survey or census data, how SLR-related hazards including flooding, salinization, and erosion together with non-environmental factors influence migration behavior. In this article, we provide a systematic literature review of this empirical work. Our review findings indicate that flooding is not necessarily associated with increased migration. Severe flood events even tend to decrease long-term migration in developing countries, although more research is needed to better understand the underpinnings of this finding. Salinization and erosion do generally lead to migration, but the number of studies is sparse. Several non-environmental factors including wealth and place attachment influence migration alongside SLR-related hazards. Based on the review, we propose a research agenda by outlining knowledge gaps and promising avenues for future research on this topic. Promising research avenues include using behavioral experiments to investigate migration behavior under future SLR scenarios, studying migration among other adaptation strategies, and complementing empirical research with dynamic migration modeling. We conclude that more empirical research on the SLR-migration nexus is needed to properly understand and anticipate the complex dynamics of migration under SLR, and to design adequate policy responses. This article is categorized under: Climate Economics < Aggregation Techniques for Impacts and Mitigation CostsVulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change < Learning from Cases and AnalogiesAssessing Impacts of Climate Change < Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change.

Contextualizing cross national patterns in household climate change adaptation

Understanding social and behavioral drivers and constraints of household adaptation is essential to effectively address increasing climate-induced risks. Factors shaping household adaptation are commonly treated as universal; despite an emerging understanding that adaptations are shaped by social, institutional, and cultural contexts. Using original surveys in the United States, China, Indonesia, and the Netherlands (N=3,789) - we explore variations in factors shaping households' adaptations to flooding, the costliest hazard worldwide. We find that social influence, worry, climate change beliefs, self-efficacy, and perceived costs exhibit universal effects on household adaptations, despite countries' differences. Disparities occur in the effects of response efficacy, flood experience, beliefs in governmental actions, demographics, and media, which we attribute to specific cultural or institutional characteristics. Climate adaptation policies can leverage on the revealed similarities when extrapolating best practices across countries, yet should exercise caution as context-specific socio-behavioral drivers may discourage or even reverse household adaptation motivation.

After the virtual flood: Risk perceptions and flood preparedness after virtual reality risk communication

Many individuals experience problems understanding and preparing for low-probability/high-impact risk, like natural disasters and pandemics – unless they experience these events, yet then it is often too late to avoid damages. Individuals with recent disaster risk experience are, on average, better prepared. This seems to be mediated through emotions and a better understanding of the consequences. In this study, we use immersive virtual reality (VR) technology to examine whether a simulated disaster can stimulate people to invest in risk reducing measures in the context of flooding, which is one of the deadliest and most damaging natural disasters in the world. We investigate the possibility to boost risk perception, coping appraisal, negative emotions and damage-reducing behavior through a simulated flooding experience. We find that participants who experienced the virtual flood invest significantly more in the flood risk investment game than those in the control group. The investments in the VR treatment seem to decrease after four weeks but not significantly so.

Influencing factors for public risk perception of COVID-19 --perspective of the pandemic whole life cycle

The public's risk perception of public health emergencies will determine their behavior choices to a certain extent. Research on public risk perception of emergencies is an integral part of crisis management. From the perspective of the whole life cycle, this article takes the COVID-19 epidemic as an example. It conducts empirical analysis to study the influencing factors of public risk perception of public health emergencies. The results show that: (1) the public's risk perception is affected by individual factors, event characteristics, social influencing factors, and individual relationship factors. (2) The more the public is familiar with the epidemic, the lower the risk of the epidemic. The more the public can control the loss of the epidemic risk, the perceived epidemic risk will be reduced. The more the public trusts the supreme power of the government, the lower the risk of the epidemic in their hearts is. The higher the closeness of the risk and impact of the epidemic to individuals, the higher the level of risk perception is. (3)The public's risk perception will evolve with the development of the situation, and there are differences in recognition of government departments' control measures at different stages of public health emergencies. The relevant departments should effectively guide the public's risk response behavior in combination with the life cycle of public health emergencies. The research conclusions of this article clarify the dynamic evolution of risk perception and provide a specific reference for the emergency management of public health emergencies.

Scientometric Analysis of Disaster Risk Perception: 2000-2020

This paper used 1526 works from the literature on disaster risk perception from 2000 to 2020 in the Web of Science core collection database as the research subject. The CiteSpace knowledge graph analysis tool was used to visual analyze the country, author, institution, discipline distribution, keywords, and keyword clustering mapping. The paper drew the following conclusions. Firstly, disaster risk perception research has experienced three stages of steady development, undulating growth, and rapid growth. Secondly, the field of disaster risk perception was mainly concentrated in the disciplines of engineering, natural science, and management science. Thirdly, meteorological disasters, earthquakes, nuclear radiation, and epidemics were the main disasters in the field of disaster risk perception. Residents and adolescents were the main subjects of research in the field of disaster risk perception. Fourthly, research on human risk behavior and risk psychology and research on disaster risk control and emergency management were two major research hotspots in the field of disaster risk perception. Finally, the research field of disaster risk perception is constantly expanding. There is a trend from theory to application and multi-perspective combination, and future research on disaster risk perception will be presented more systematically. The conclusion can provide a reference for disaster risk perception research, as well as directions for future research.

The Landscape of Risk Perception Research: A Scientometric Analysis

Risk perception is important in organizational and societal governance contexts. This article presents a high-level analysis of risk perception research using Web of Science core collection databases, scientometrics methods and visualization tools. The focus is on trends in outputs, geographical and temporal trends, and patterns in the associated scientific categories. Thematic clusters and temporal dynamics of focus topics are identified using keyword analysis. A co-citation analysis is performed to identify the evolution of research fronts and key documents. The results indicate that research output is growing fast, with most contributions originating from western countries. The domain is highly interdisciplinary, rooted in psychology and social sciences, but branching into domains related to environmental sciences, medicine, and engineering. Significant research themes focus on perceptions related to health, with a focus on cancer, human immunodeficiency virus, and epidemiology, natural hazards and major disasters, traffic accidents, technological and industrial risks, and customer trust. Risk perception research originated from consumer choice decisions, with subsequent research fronts focusing on understanding the risk perception concept, and on developing taxonomies and measurement methods. Applied research fronts focus on environmental hazards, traffic accidents, breast cancer and, more recently, e-commerce transactions and flood risk. Based on the results, various avenues for future research are described.

Storm Naming in the Eastern Mediterranean: Procedures, Events Review and Impact on the Citizens Risk Perception and Readiness

This paper is devoted to the discussion of the practice of storm naming that has been initiated in January 2017 for the first time in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Namely the METEO Unit at NOA, taking into consideration that storm naming facilitates meteorologists, researchers, authorities, civil protection officers, the media and citizens to communicate the forecasts of high-impact weather events, started storm naming in January 2017 and has named 35 storms up to September 2021. The criteria of storm naming are discussed, and a synopsis of the events is presented. The monthly distribution shows that 57% of the named storms occurred during the winter period, with January being the month with the highest percentage of occurrence of named storms (28%). The impact of storm naming on citizens risk perception and increased awareness has been also assessed through an internet-based questionnaire that was launched on the fourth year of the storm naming practice in Greece. Overall, results indicate a significant impact of storm naming on the readiness of citizens through the activation of perceptual and cognitive mechanisms.