COMPARISON OF NON-GAUSSIAN QUANTITATIVE GENETIC MODELS FOR MIGRATION AND STABILIZING SELECTION

Coevolution-induced selection for and against phenotypic novelty shapes species richness in clade co-diversification

Coevolution can occur because of species interactions. However, it remains unclear how coevolutionary processes translate into the accumulation of species richness over macroevolutionary timescales. Assuming speciation occurs as a result of genetic differentiation across space due to dispersal limitation, we examine the effects of coevolution-induced phenotypic selection on species diversification. Based on the idea that dispersers often carry novel phenotypes, we propose and test two hypotheses. (1) Stability hypothesis: selection against phenotypic novelty enhances species diversification by strengthening dispersal limitation. (2) Novelty hypothesis: selection for phenotypic novelty impedes species diversification by weakening dispersal limitation. We simulate clade co-diversification using an individual-based model, considering scenarios where phenotypic selection is shaped by neutral dynamics, mutualistic coevolution, or antagonistic coevolution, where coevolution operates through trait matching or trait difference, and where the strength of coevolutionary selection is symmetrical or asymmetrical. Our key assumption that interactions occur between an independent party (whose individuals can establish or persist independently, e.g., hosts) and a dependent party (whose individuals cannot establish or persist independently, for example, parasites or obligate mutualists) yields two contrasting results. The stability hypothesis is supported in the dependent clade but not in the independent clade. Conversely, the novelty hypothesis is supported in the independent clade but not in the dependent clade. These results are partially corroborated by empirical dispersal data, suggesting that these mechanisms might potentially explain the diversification of some of the most species-rich clades in the Tree of Life.

Assortative mating for reproductive timing affects population recruitment and resilience in a quantitative genetic model

Quantitative models that simulate the inheritance and evolution of fitness-linked traits offer a method for predicting how environmental or anthropogenic perturbations can affect the dynamics of wild populations. Random mating between individuals within populations is a key assumption of many such models used in conservation and management to predict the impacts of proposed management or conservation actions. However, recent evidence suggests that non-random mating may be underestimated in wild populations and play an important role in diversity-stability relationships. Here we introduce a novel individual-based quantitative genetic model that incorporates assortative mating for reproductive timing, a defining attribute of many aggregate breeding species. We demonstrate the utility of this framework by simulating a generalized salmonid lifecycle, varying input parameters, and comparing model outputs to theoretical expectations for several eco-evolutionary, population dynamic scenarios. Simulations with assortative mating systems resulted in more resilient and productive populations than those that were randomly mating. In accordance with established ecological and evolutionary theory, we also found that decreasing the magnitude of trait correlations, environmental variability, and strength of selection each had a positive effect on population growth. Our model is constructed in a modular framework so that future components can be easily added to address pressing issues such as the effects of supportive breeding, variable age structure, differential selection by sex or age, and fishery interactions on population growth and resilience. With code published in a public Github repository, model outputs may easily be tailored to specific study systems by parameterizing with empirically generated values from long-term ecological monitoring programs.

Selection against individuals from genetic introgression of escaped farmed salmon in a natural population of Atlantic salmon

The viability of wild Atlantic salmon populations is threatened by genetic introgression from escaped farmed salmon. Farmed Atlantic salmon are genetically improved for important commercial traits and a life in captivity but are poorly adapted to the natural environment. The rate of gene flow from escaped farmed to wild salmon depends on their spawning success and on offspring survival at various life stages. We here investigate relative survival of introgressed juvenile Atlantic salmon (parr) in a river in northern Norway. The studied population has experienced genetic introgression from farmed salmon for about four generations (20 years). We followed two cohorts of parr from the year of hatching (0+) to the age of 2 years (2+). Farmed genetic introgression was quantified at the individual level and on a continuous scale using diagnostic SNPs. Population-level genetic introgression decreased from 0+ to 2+ by 64% (2011 cohort) and 37% (2013 cohort). This change was driven by a 70% (2011 cohort) and 49% (2013 cohort) lower survival from age 0+ to 2+ in introgressed parr compared to parr of wild origin. Our observations show that there is natural selection against genetic introgression with a potential cost of lower productivity.

Immigration counter-acts local micro-evolution of a major fitness component: Migration-selection balance in free-living song sparrows

Ongoing adaptive evolution, and resulting “evolutionary rescue” of declining populations, requires additive genetic variation in fitness. Such variation can be increased by gene flow resulting from immigration, potentially facilitating evolution. But, gene flow could in fact constrain rather than facilitate local adaptive evolution if immigrants have low additive genetic values for local fitness. Local migration‐selection balance and micro‐evolutionary stasis could then result. However, key quantitative genetic effects of natural immigration, comprising the degrees to which gene flow increases the total local additive genetic variance yet counteracts local adaptive evolutionary change, have not been explicitly quantified in wild populations. Key implications of gene flow for population and evolutionary dynamics consequently remain unclear. Our quantitative genetic analyses of long‐term data from free‐living song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) show that mean breeding value for local juvenile survival to adulthood, a major component of fitness, increased across cohorts more than expected solely due to drift. Such micro‐evolutionary change should be expected given nonzero additive genetic variance and consistent directional selection. However, this evolutionary increase was counteracted by negative additive genetic effects of recent immigrants, which increased total additive genetic variance but prevented a net directional evolutionary increase in total additive genetic value. These analyses imply an approximate quantitative genetic migration‐selection balance in a major fitness component, and hence demonstrate a key mechanism by which substantial additive genetic variation can be maintained yet decoupled from local adaptive evolutionary change.

Effect of migration and environmental heterogeneity on the maintenance of quantitative genetic variation: a simulation study

The paradox of high genetic variation observed in traits under stabilizing selection is a long-standing problem in evolutionary theory, as mutation rates appear too low to explain observed levels of standing genetic variation under classic models of mutation-selection balance. Spatially or temporally heterogeneous environments can maintain more standing genetic variation within populations than homogeneous environments, but it is unclear whether such conditions can resolve the above discrepancy between theory and observation. Here, we use individual-based simulations to explore the effect of various types of environmental heterogeneity on the maintenance of genetic variation (V_A ) for a quantitative trait under stabilizing selection. We find that V_A is maximized at intermediate migration rates in spatially heterogeneous environments and that the observed patterns are robust to changes in population size. Spatial environmental heterogeneity increased variation by as much as 10-fold over mutation-selection balance alone, whereas pure temporal environmental heterogeneity increased variance by only 45% at max. Our results show that some combinations of spatial heterogeneity and migration can maintain considerably more variation than mutation-selection balance, potentially reconciling the discrepancy between theoretical predictions and empirical observations. However, given the narrow regions of parameter space required for this effect, this is unlikely to provide a general explanation for the maintenance of variation. Nonetheless, our results suggest that habitat fragmentation may affect the maintenance of V_A and thereby reduce the adaptive capacity of populations.

Modeling fitness changes in wild Atlantic salmon populations faced by spawning intrusion of domesticated escapees

Genetic interaction between domesticated escapees and wild conspecifics represents a persistent challenge to an environmentally sustainable Atlantic salmon aquaculture industry. We used a recently developed eco-genetic model (IBSEM) to investigate potential changes in a wild salmon population subject to spawning intrusion from domesticated escapees. At low intrusion levels (5%-10% escapees), phenotypic and demographic characteristics of the recipient wild population only displayed weak changes over 50 years and only at high intrusion levels (30%-50% escapees) were clear changes visible in this period. Our modeling also revealed that genetic changes in phenotypic and demographic characteristics were greater in situations where strayers originating from a neighboring wild population were domestication-admixed and changed in parallel with the focal wild population, as opposed to nonadmixed. While recovery in the phenotypic and demographic characteristics was observed in many instances after domesticated salmon intrusion was halted, in the most extreme intrusion scenario, the population went extinct. Based upon results from these simulations, together with existing knowledge, we suggest that a combination of reduced spawning success of domesticated escapees, natural selection purging maladapted phenotypes/genotypes from the wild population, and phenotypic plasticity, buffer the rate and magnitude of change in phenotypic and demographic characteristics of wild populations subject to spawning intrusion of domesticated escapees. The results of our simulations also suggest that under specific conditions, natural straying among wild populations may buffer genetic changes in phenotypic and demographic characteristics resulting from introgression of domesticated escapees and that variation in straying in time and space may contribute to observed differences in domestication-driven introgression among native populations.

The role of phenotypic plasticity on population differentiation

Several evolutionary processes shape the genetic and phenotypic differentiation of populations. Among them, the joint effects of gene flow, selection and phenotypic plasticity are poorly known, especially when trying to understand how maladaptive plasticity affects population divergence. We extended a quantitative genetic model of Hendry et al. (2001) to describe these joint effects on phenotypic and additive genetic divergence between two populations, and their phenotypic and genetic differentiation (PST and QST). With individual-based simulations, we tested our model predictions and further modeled allelic differentiation at neutral (FST) and adaptive (FSTQ) loci. While adaptive phenotypic plasticity allows for large phenotypic divergence and differentiation despite high gene flow, maladaptive plasticity promotes genetic divergence and generates countergradient variation, under extensive migration with phenotypic differences sometimes opposed to genetic differences. Maladaptive plasticity can also promote adaptive phenotypic divergence by reducing the effective gene flow. Overall, plasticity decouples genetic from phenotypic differences between populations, and blurs the correlation between phenotypic divergence and local adaptation. By deriving models of population differentiation for three different life cycles, we further describe the effect of a species' ecology on evolution in structured populations.

Gene flow from domesticated escapes alters the life history of wild Atlantic salmon

Interbreeding between domesticated and wild animals occurs in several species. This gene flow has long been anticipated to induce genetic changes in life-history traits of wild populations, thereby influencing population dynamics and viability. Here, we show that individuals with high levels of introgression (domesticated ancestry) have altered age and size at maturation in 62 wild Atlantic salmon Salmo salar populations, including seven ancestral populations to breeding lines of the domesticated salmon. This study documents widespread changes to life-history traits in wild animal populations following gene flow from selectively bred, domesticated conspecifics. The continued high abundance of escaped, domesticated Atlantic salmon thus threatens wild Atlantic salmon populations by inducing genetic changes in fitness-related traits. Our results represent key evidence and a timely warning concerning the potential ecological impacts of the globally increasing use of domesticated animals.

Pollen dispersal slows geographical range shift and accelerates ecological niche shift under climate change

Species may survive climate change by migrating to track favorable climates and/or adapting to different climates. Several quantitative genetics models predict that species escaping extinction will change their geographical distribution while keeping the same ecological niche. We introduce pollen dispersal in these models, which affects gene flow but not directly colonization. We show that plant populations may escape extinction because of both spatial range and ecological niche shifts. Exact analytical formulas predict that increasing pollen dispersal distance slows the expected spatial range shift and accelerates the ecological niche shift. There is an optimal distance of pollen dispersal, which maximizes the sustainable rate of climate change. These conclusions hold in simulations relaxing several strong assumptions of our analytical model. Our results imply that, for plants with long distance of pollen dispersal, models assuming niche conservatism may not accurately predict their future distribution under climate change.

Local Adaptation by Alleles of Small Effect

Population genetic models predict that alleles with small selection coefficients may be swamped by migration and will not contribute to local adaptation. But if most alleles contributing to standing variation are of small effect, how does local adaptation proceed? Here I review predictions of population and quantitative genetic models and use individual-based simulations to illustrate how the architecture of local adaptation depends on the genetic redundancy of the trait, the maintenance of standing genetic variation (V(G)), and the susceptibility of alleles to swamping. Even when population genetic models predict swamping for individual alleles, considerable local adaptation can evolve at the phenotypic level if there is sufficient V(G). However, in such cases the underlying architecture of divergence is transient: F(ST) is low across all loci, and no locus makes an important contribution for very long. Because this kind of local adaptation is mainly due to transient frequency changes and allelic covariances, these architectures will be difficult--if not impossible--to detect using current approaches to studying the genomic basis of adaptation. Even when alleles are large and resistant to swamping, architectures can be highly transient if genetic redundancy and mutation rates are high. These results suggest that drift can play a critical role in shaping the architecture of local adaptation, both through eroding V(G) and affecting the rate of turnover of polymorphisms with redundant phenotypic effects.

Evolution of Quantitative Traits under a Migration-Selection Balance: When Does Skew Matter?

Quantitative-genetic models of differentiation under migration-selection balance often rely on the assumption of normally distributed genotypic and phenotypic values. When a population is subdivided into demes with selection toward different local optima, migration between demes may result in asymmetric, or skewed, local distributions. Using a simplified two-habitat model, we derive formulas without a priori assuming a Gaussian distribution of genotypic values, and we find expressions that naturally incorporate higher moments, such as skew. These formulas yield predictions of the expected divergence under migration-selection balance that are more accurate than models assuming Gaussian distributions, which illustrates the importance of incorporating these higher moments to assess the response to selection in heterogeneous environments. We further show with simulations that traits with loci of large effect display the largest skew in their distribution at migration-selection balance.

Fisheries-induced neutral and adaptive evolution in exploited fish populations and consequences for their adaptive potential

Fishing may induce neutral and adaptive evolution affecting life-history traits, and molecular evidence has shown that neutral genetic diversity has declined in some exploited populations. Here, we theoretically study the interplay between neutral and adaptive evolution caused by fishing. An individual-based eco-genetic model is devised that includes neutral and functional loci in a realistic ecological setting. In line with theoretical expectations, we find that fishing induces evolution towards slow growth, early maturation at small size and higher reproductive investment. We show, first, that the choice of genetic model (based on either quantitative genetics or gametic inheritance) influences the evolutionary recovery of traits after fishing ceases. Second, we analyse the influence of three factors possibly involved in the lack of evolutionary recovery: the strength of selection, the effect of genetic drift and the loss of adaptive potential. We find that evolutionary recovery is hampered by an association of weak selection differentials with reduced additive genetic variances. Third, the contribution of fisheries-induced selection to the erosion of functional genetic diversity clearly dominates that of genetic drift only for the traits related to maturation. Together, our results highlight the importance of taking into account population genetic variability in predictions of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

A two-locus model of spatially varying stabilizing or directional selection on a quantitative trait

The consequences of spatially varying, stabilizing or directional selection on a quantitative trait in a subdivided population are studied. A deterministic two-locus two-deme model is employed to explore the effects of migration, the degree of divergent selection, and the genetic architecture, i.e., the recombination rate and ratio of locus effects, on the maintenance of genetic variation. The possible equilibrium configurations are determined as functions of the migration rate. They depend crucially on the strength of divergent selection and the genetic architecture. The maximum migration rates are investigated below which a stable fully polymorphic equilibrium or a stable single-locus polymorphism can exist. Under stabilizing selection, but with different optima in the demes, strong recombination may facilitate the maintenance of polymorphism. However usually, and in particular with directional selection in opposite direction, the critical migration rates are maximized by a concentrated genetic architecture, i.e., by a major locus and a tightly linked minor one. Thus, complementing previous work on the evolution of genetic architectures in subdivided populations subject to diversifying selection, it is shown that concentrated architectures may aid the maintenance of polymorphism. Conditions are obtained when this is the case. Finally, the dependence of the phenotypic variance, linkage disequilibrium, and various measures of local adaptation and differentiation on the parameters is elaborated.

Assessing strategies to minimize unintended fitness consequences of aquaculture on wild populations

Artificial propagation programs focused on production, such as commercial aquaculture or forestry, entail strong domestication selection. Spillover from such programs can cause unintended fitness and demographic consequences for wild conspecifics. The range of possible management practices to minimize such consequences vary in their control of genetic and demographic processes. Here, we use a model of coupled genetic and demographic dynamics to evaluate alternative management approaches to minimizing unintended consequences of aquaculture escapees. We find that, if strong natural selection occurs between escape and reproduction, an extremely maladapted (i.e., nonlocal-origin, highly domesticated) stock could have fitness consequences analogous to a weakly diverged cultured stock; otherwise, wild population fitness declines with increasing maladaptation in the cultured stock. Reducing escapees through low-level leakage is more effective than reducing an analogous number of escapees from large, rare pulses. This result arises because low-level leakage leads to the continual lowering of wild population fitness and subsequent increased proportional contribution of maladapted cultured escapees to the total population. Increased sterilization efficacy can cause rapid, nonlinear reductions in unintended fitness consequences. Finally, sensitivity to the stage of escape indicates a need for improved monitoring data on how the number of escapees varies across life cycle stages.

Local adaptation when competition depends on phenotypic similarity

Recent work incorporating demographic-genetic interactions indicates the importance of population size, gene flow, and selection in influencing local adaptation. This work typically assumes that density-dependent survival affects individuals equally, but individuals in natural population rarely compete equally. Among-individual differences in resource use generate stronger competition between more similar phenotypes (frequency-dependent competition) but it remains unclear how this additional form of selection changes the interactions between population size, gene flow, and local stabilizing selection. Here, we integrate migration-selection dynamics with frequency-dependent competition. We developed a coupled demographic-quantitative genetic model consisting of two patches connected by dispersal and subject to local stabilizing selection and competition. Our model shows that frequency-dependent competition slightly increases local adaptation, greatly increases genetic variance within patches, and reduces the amount that migration depresses population size, despite the increased genetic variance load. The effects of frequency-dependence depend on the strength of divergent selection, trait heritability, and when mortality occurs in the life cycle in relation to migration and reproduction. Essentially, frequency-dependent competition reduces the density-dependent interactions between migrants and residents, the extent to which depends on how different and common immigrants are compared to residents. Our results add new dynamics that illustrate how competition can alter the effects of gene flow and divergent selection on local adaptation and population carrying capacities.