Demographic response of tundra small mammals to a snow fencing experiment

Arctic and red fox population responses to climate and cryosphere changes at the Arctic's edge

Responses of one species to climate change may influence the population dynamics of others, particularly in the Arctic where food webs are strongly linked. Specifically, changes to the cryosphere may limit prey availability for predators. We examined Arctic (Vulpes lagopus) and red fox (V. vulpes) population dynamics near the southern edge of the Arctic fox distribution using fur harvest records from Churchill, Manitoba, Canada between 1955 and 2012. Arctic foxes showed a declining population trend over time (inferred from harvest records corrected for trapping effort), whereas the red fox population trend was relatively stable. The positive relationship between the annual Arctic and red fox harvests suggested interspecific competition did not promote the Arctic fox decline. To investigate alternative mechanisms, we evaluated the relative influence of sea-ice phenology, snow depth, snow duration, winter thaws, and summer temperature on the harvest dynamics of both species in the most recent 32 years (1980-2012; n = 29) of our data. Arctic fox harvests were negatively related to the length of time Hudson Bay was free of sea ice. Shorter sea ice duration may reduce access to seal carrion as an alternative winter food source when lemming densities decline. Contrary to our prediction, red fox harvest was not related to summer temperature but was positively related to snow depth, suggesting winter prey availability may limit red fox population growth. Predators have an important ecological role, so understanding the influence of changes in the cryosphere on predator-prey interactions may better illuminate the broader influence of climate change on food-web dynamics.

Shrinkage of body size in rodents as a strategy of populations under anthropogenic conditions (results of 50 years of study of rodent populations)

Based on results of 50 years of continuous observations of populations of the pine vole (Microtus subterraneus de Selys-Longchamps, 1836) and yellow-necked wood mouse (Sylvaemus flavicollis Melchior, 1834), the phenomenon of reducing body size of individuals was revealed, particularly a significant reduction in body dimensions and body mass. The research was conducted at the Kaniv Nature Reserve covering various stages of the local ecosystem's existence under anthropogenic impact. Four cycles of density dynamics of two populations are chosen for comparison of their characteristics. The first three cycles correspond to qualitatively different periods in the existence of the protected ecosystem and populations of the studied species, whereas the last cycle reflects the current situation. It has been established that the tendency to decrease body dimensions is also characteristic for other rodent species, its manifestations are observed for 35 years, and the scale gradually increases. By fatness indexes, individuals of the pine vole on average lose 23.3% and yellow-necked wood mice lose 16.7% of the former values. It was shown that the level of reduce in exterior parameters is always greater in females than in males, and in the group of breeding adults it can reach 32%. It has been found that the phenomenon also applies to juveniles, whose fatness decreases by an average of 21%. The phenomenon occurs against the background of violations of various aspects of population dynamics, which allows it to be associated with anthropogenic changes in the environment. It is suggested that shrinking can be realized by various mechanisms. First, as a result of mortality, the largest individuals and reproductive females with their greatest energy needs fall out of the population, and, second, the growth and weight gain of young animals is slower. As a result, the decrease in external parameters of individuals reduces their specific energy needs and allows them to better survive under adverse conditions. From these points of view, reducing body dimensions can be considered as a specific population strategy to maintain ecological balance.

Snow mediates climatic impacts on Arctic herbivore populations

Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to impacts of climate change; however, the complex relationships between climate and ecosystems make incorporating effects of climate change into population management difficult. This study used structural equation modelling (SEM) and a 24-year multifaceted monitoring data series collected at Zackenberg, North-East Greenland, to untangle the network of climatic and local abiotic and biotic drivers, determining their direct and indirect effects on two herbivores: musk ox (Ovibos moschatus) and collared lemming (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus). Snow conditions were determined to be the central driver within the system, mediating the effects of climate on herbivore abundance. Under current climate change projections, snow is expected to decrease in the region. Snow had an indirect negative effect on musk ox, as decreased snow depth led to an earlier start to the Arctic willow growing season, shown to increase fecundity and decrease mortality. Musk ox are therefore expected to be more successful under future conditions, within a certain threshold. Snow had both positive and negative effects on lemming, with lemming expected to ultimately be less successful under climate change, as reduction in snow increases their vulnerability to predation. Through their capacity to determine effects of climatic and local drivers within a hierarchy, and the relative strength and direction of these effects, SEMs were demonstrated to have the potential to be valuable in guiding population management.

Top-down limitation of lemmings revealed by experimental reduction of predators

It is generally recognized that delayed density-dependence is responsible for cyclic population dynamics. However, it is still uncertain whether a single factor can explain why some rodent populations fluctuate according to a 3-4 yr periodicity. There is increasing evidence that predation may play a role in lemming population cycles, although this effect may vary seasonally. To address this issue, we conducted an experiment where we built a large exclosure (9 ha) to protect brown lemmings (Lemmus trimucronatus) from avian and terrestrial predators. We tested the hypothesis that predation is a limiting factor for lemmings by measuring the demographic consequences of a predator reduction during the growth and peak phases of the cycle. We assessed summer (capture-mark-recapture methods) and winter (winter nest sampling) lemming demography on two grids located on Bylot Island, Nunavut, Canada from 2008 to 2015. The predator exclosure became fully effective in July 2013, allowing us to compare demography between the control and experimental grids before and during the treatment. Lemming abundance, survival and proportion of juveniles were similar between the two grids before the treatment. During the predator-reduction period, summer densities were on average 1.9× higher inside the experimental grid than the control and this effect was greatest for adult females and juveniles (densities 2.4× and 3.4× higher, respectively). Summer survival was 1.6× higher on the experimental grid than the control whereas body mass and proportion of juveniles were also slightly higher. Winter nest densities remained high inside the predator reduction grid following high summer abundance, but declined on the control grid. These results confirm that predation limits lemming population growth during the summer due to its negative impact on survival. However, it is possible that in winter, predation may interact with other factors affecting reproduction and ultimately population cycles.

Seasonal demography of a cyclic lemming population in the Canadian Arctic

1. The causes of cyclical fluctuations in animal populations remain a controversial topic in ecology. Food limitation and predation are two leading hypotheses to explain small mammal population dynamics in northern environments. We documented the seasonal timing of the decline phases and demographic parameters (survival and reproduction) associated with population changes in lemmings, allowing us to evaluate some predictions from these two hypotheses. 2. We studied the demography of brown lemmings (Lemmus trimucronatus), a species showing 3- to 4-year population cycles in the Canadian Arctic, by combining capture-mark-recapture analysis of summer live-trapping with monitoring of winter nests over a 10-year period. We also examined the effects of some weather variables on survival. 3. We found that population declines after a peak occurred between the summer and winter period and not during the winter. During the summer, population growth was driven by change in survival, but not in fecundity or proportion of juveniles, whereas in winter population growth was driven by changes in late summer and winter reproduction. 4. We did not find evidence for direct density dependence on summer demographic parameters, though our analysis was constrained by the paucity of data during the low phase. Body mass, however, was highest in peak years. 5. Weather effects were detected only in early summer when lemming survival was positively related to snow depth at the onset of melt but negatively related to rainfall. 6. Our results show that high mortality causes population declines of lemmings during summer and fall, which suggests that predation is sufficient to cause population crashes, whereas high winter fecundity is the primary factor leading to population irruptions. The positive association between snow depth and early summer survival may be due to the protective cover offered by snow against predators. It is still unclear why reproduction remains low during the low phase.

Highly overlapping winter diet in two sympatric lemming species revealed by DNA metabarcoding

Sympatric species are expected to minimize competition by partitioning resources, especially when these are limited. Herbivores inhabiting the High Arctic in winter are a prime example of a situation where food availability is anticipated to be low, and thus reduced diet overlap is expected. We present here the first assessment of diet overlap of high arctic lemmings during winter based on DNA metabarcoding of feces. In contrast to previous analyses based on microhistology, we found that the diets of both collared (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus) and brown lemmings (Lemmus trimucronatus) on Bylot Island were dominated by Salix while mosses, which were significantly consumed only by the brown lemming, were a relatively minor food item. The most abundant plant taxon, Cassiope tetragona, which alone composes more than 50% of the available plant biomass, was not detected in feces and can thus be considered to be non-food. Most plant taxa that were identified as food items were consumed in proportion to their availability and none were clearly selected for. The resulting high diet overlap, together with a lack of habitat segregation, indicates a high potential for resource competition between the two lemming species. However, Salix is abundant in the winter habitats of lemmings on Bylot Island and the non-Salix portion of the diets differed between the two species. Also, lemming grazing impact on vegetation during winter in the study area is negligible. Hence, it seems likely that the high potential for resource competition predicted between these two species did not translate into actual competition. This illustrates that even in environments with low primary productivity food resources do not necessarily generate strong competition among herbivores.

Predation pressure by avian predators suggests summer limitation of small-mammal populations in the Canadian Arctic

Predation has been suggested to be especially important in simple food webs and less productive ecosystems such as the arctic tundra, but very few data are available to evaluate this hypothesis. We examined the hypothesis that avian predators could drive the population dynamics of two cyclic lemming species in the Canadian Arctic. A dense and diverse suite of predatory birds, including the Snowy Owl (Bubo scandiacus), the Rough-legged Hawk (Buteo lagopus), and the Long-tailed Jaeger (Stercorarius longicaudus), inhabits the arctic tundra and prey on collared (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus) and brown (Lemmus trimucronatus) lemmings during the snow-free period. We evaluated the predation pressure exerted by these predators by combining their numerical (variation in breeding and fledgling numbers) and functional (variation in diet and daily consumption rates) responses to variations in lemming densities over the 2004-2010 period. Breeding density and number of fledglings produced by the three main avian predators increased sharply without delay in response to increasing lemming densities. The proportion of collared lemmings in the diet of those predators was high at low lemming density (both species) but decreased as lemming density increased. However, we found little evidence that their daily consumption rates vary in relation to changes in lemming density. Total consumption rate by avian predators initially increased more rapidly for collared lemming but eventually leveled off at a much higher value for brown lemmings, the most abundant species at our site. The combined daily predation rate of avian predators exceeded the maximum daily potential growth rates of both lemming species except at the highest recorded densities for brown lemmings. We thus show, for the first time, that predation pressure exerted without delay by avian predators can limit populations of coexisting lemming species during the snow-free period, and thus, that predation could play a role in the cyclic dynamic of these species in the tundra.

The effect of snow cover on lemming population cycles in the Canadian high Arctic

Rising temperatures and changes in the precipitation regime will have a strong impact on the quality of the snow cover in the Arctic. A snow cover of good quality protecting lemmings from cold temperatures and predators is thought to be an important factor for maintaining the cyclic dynamic of their populations in the tundra. We examined if the characteristics of annual fluctuations (amplitude and shape of phases) in brown lemming (Lemmus trimucronatus) density could be determined by snow depth, snow density, sub-nivean temperature and persistence of snow. Using an 18-year time series of brown lemming abundance on Bylot Island in the Canadian Arctic, we tested if snow variables could explain the residual variation between the observed lemming density and the one predicted by models where cyclicity had been accounted for. Our analysis provides support for the hypothesis that snow cover can affect the amplitude and possibly also the periodicity of lemming population cycles in the High Arctic. Summer abundance of brown lemmings was higher following winters with a deep snow cover and a low-density snow pack near the ground but was unaffected by the date of establishment or melting and duration of the snow cover. Two snow variables showed a temporal trend; mean winter snow depth tended to increase and date of establishment of the hiemal threshold occurred earlier over time. These temporal trends, which should be favourable to lemmings, may explain why healthy population cycles have apparently been maintained at our study site contrary to other Arctic sites.