Can decision analysis help us decide whether ultrasound screening for fetal anomalies is worth it?

Cost-effectiveness of testing for breast cancer susceptibility genes

OBJECTIVES

Genetic mutations in breast cancer susceptibility genes BRCA1/2 are associated with an increased risk of breast/ovarian cancers. Cost-effective preventive measures are available for women who test positive. The objective of this study was to determine at what risk of mutation it is cost-effective to test women for BRCA1/2 mutations.

METHODS

A semi-Markov model accrued costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) annually from the societal perspective. The estimates of health-care costs, life expectancy, likelihood of obtaining a mastectomy or oophorectomy, and patient preferences for treatment and certainty about their BRCA1/2 status were based on the literature.

RESULTS

At a 10% probability of mutation (the current guideline), the test strategy generated 22.9 QALYs over the lifetime and cost $118k, while the no-test strategy generated 22.7 QALYs and cost $117k. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the test strategy was $9k and the differences between costs and effects were not substantial. The test strategy remained cost-effective to a probability of mutation of 0%, as long as utility gained from a negative test result was 0.006 or greater. These results were sensitive to the frequency of inconclusive test results and utility gain from a negative test result.

CONCLUSIONS

The costs and effectiveness of both the test and no-test strategies are very similar even when there is a small probability of mutation. Current guidelines, which can be used by insurance companies to refuse coverage, could deny some women a cost-effective approach. Further research to decrease the frequency of inconclusive results could improve the cost-effectiveness of this test.

Applying the ALARA concept to the evaluation of vesicoureteric reflux

The voiding cystourethrogram (VCUG) is a widely used study to define lower urinary tract anatomy and to diagnose vesicoureteric reflux (VUR) in children. We examine the technical advances in the VCUG and other examinations for reflux that have reduced radiation exposure of children, and we give recommendations for the use of imaging studies in four groups of children: (1) children with urinary tract infection, (2) siblings of patients with VUR, (3) infants with antenatal hydronephrosis (ANH), and (4) children with a solitary functioning kidney. By performing examinations with little to no radiation, carefully selecting only the children who need imaging studies and judiciously timing follow-up examinations, we can reduce the radiation exposure of children being studied for reflux.

Antenatal hydronephrosis as a predictor of postnatal outcome: a meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

Antenatal hydronephrosis is diagnosed in 1% to 5% of all pregnancies; however, the antenatal and postnatal management of hydronephrosis varies widely. No previous studies define the risk of postnatal pathology in infants with antenatal hydronephrosis. Our objective was to review the current literature to determine whether the degree of antenatal hydronephrosis and related antenatal ultrasound findings are associated with postnatal outcome.

METHODS

We searched Medline (1966-2005), Embase (1991-2004), and the Cochrane Library databases for articles on antenatal hydronephrosis. We required studies to have subjects selected on the basis of documented measurements of antenatal hydronephrosis and followed to a postnatal diagnosis. We excluded case reports, review articles, and editorials. Two independent investigators extracted data.

RESULTS

We screened 1645 citations, of which 17 studies met inclusion criteria. We created a data set of 1308 subjects. The risk of any postnatal pathology per degree of antenatal hydronephrosis was 11.9% for mild, 45.1% for moderate, and 88.3% for severe. There was a significant increase in risk per increasing degree of hydronephrosis. The risk of vesicoureteral reflux was similar for all degrees of antenatal hydronephrosis.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this meta-analysis can potentially be used for prenatal counseling and may alter current postnatal management of children with antenatal hydronephrosis. Overall, children with any degree of antenatal hydronephrosis are at greater risk of postnatal pathology as compared with the normal population. Moderate and severe antenatal hydronephrosis have a significant risk of postnatal pathology, indicating that comprehensive postnatal diagnostic management should be performed. Mild antenatal hydronephrosis may carry a risk for postnatal pathology, but additional prospective studies are needed to determine the optimal management of these children. A well-defined prospective analysis is needed to further define the risk of pathology and the appropriate management protocols.

Economic evaluation of ultrasound screening options for structural fetal malformations

OBJECTIVE

To perform a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing the current Italian situation of no organized screening program for structural fetal malformations with an organized screening model involving a scan at 19-21 weeks of gestation.

METHODS

Assumptions were made about the number of pregnant women examined per year, the number of ultrasound examinations (screening and diagnostic) and amniocenteses, the prevalence of fetal anomalies, ultrasound sensitivity and specificity and the rates of termination of pregnancy and of fetal death. The costs included procedures performed during and after the diagnosis of malformations, and the resources required to organize the program. Data sources were a literature review, estimates and national tariffs. A sensitivity analysis considered variations in screening test sensitivity, number of private scans and costs of ultrasound, fetal echocardiography, amniocentesis, care for malformed infants and organization.

RESULTS

An organized program would increase the number of diagnosed malformations (+10.7%) and decrease the number of malformed infants (-19.9%). It would also decrease the total cost of screening, from 505 billion to 400 billion euros (-20.7%), decrease the cost per woman examined from 971 to 770 euros (-20.7%) and decrease the cost per malformed fetus diagnosed from 79,085 to 56,637 euros (-28.4%).

CONCLUSIONS

In all scenarios considered, an organized program would lead to increased detection of malformations at lower cost. Further cost analyses should provide a better representation of resources used, especially those related to the care of malformed infants, while cost-benefit assessments should include all the consequences of prenatal diagnosis, such as those deriving from false results and those for both the woman and society, including ethical issues.

Population genetic screening programmes: principles, techniques, practices, and policies

This paper examines the professional and scientific views on the principles, techniques, practices, and policies that impact on the population genetic screening programmes in Europe. This paper focuses on the issues surrounding potential screening programmes, which require further discussion before their introduction. It aims to increase, among the health-care professions and health policy-makers, awareness of the potential screening programmes as an issue of increasing concern to public health. The methods comprised primarily the review of the existing professional guidelines, regulatory frameworks and other documents related to population genetic screening programmes in Europe. Then, the questions that need debate, in regard to different types of genetic screening before and after birth, were examined. Screening for conditions such as cystic fibrosis, Duchenne muscular dystrophy, familial hypercholesterolemia, fragile X syndrome, hemochromatosis, and cancer susceptibility was discussed. Special issues related to genetic screening were also examined, such as informed consent, family aspects, commercialization, the players on the scene and monitoring genetic screening programmes. Afterwards, these questions were debated by 51 experts from 15 European countries during an international workshop organized by the European Society of Human Genetics Public and Professional Policy Committee in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 19-20, November, 1999. Arguments for and against starting screening programmes have been put forward. It has been questioned whether genetic screening differs from other types of screening and testing in terms of ethical issues. The general impression on the future of genetic screening is that one wants to 'proceed with caution', with more active impetus from the side of patients' organizations and more reluctance from the policy-makers. The latter try to obviate the potential problems about the abortion and eugenics issues that might be perceived as a greater problem than it is in reality. However, it seems important to maintain a balance between a 'professional duty of care' and 'personal autonomy'.

Ultrasound in prenatal diagnosis: polemics around routine ultrasound screening for second trimester fetal malformations

Ultrasound for routine fetal malformation screening has been polemical from its early beginning because of the very broad range of diagnosis rates disclosed, i.e. from 13% to 82%, average 27.5%. A review of available studies is proposed to assess objectively the efficacy of ultrasound, considering also economical, ethical and methodological aspects as influential factors for choosing a routine screening policy. The utility of fetal malformation diagnosis before birth is brought forward, including second opinion, karyotyping, poly-disciplinary case discussion prior to management. Method and material of reviewed studies considerably vary and might influence the sensitivity results, as the choice of the population sample and selection of pregnant women, gestation age at screening, distribution of malformation among systems or tracts, exclusion of some fetal malformation and the routine practice of autopsy. Efficiency of screening studies is compared, and among them Radius and Eurofetus studies. Average sensitivity is finally considered as satisfactory in the daily practice when operated by trained personnel. The importance of additional factors for successful screening are emphasized such as education, equipment quality and fetal ultrasound examination at different gestation age for a better understanding of natural history of fetal morphology.