Estimating fisheries-induced selection: traditional gear selectivity research meets fisheries-induced evolution

Rescue or murder? The effect of prey adaptation to the predator subjected to fisheries

The concept of "indirect evolutionary rescue" refers to the evolutionary adaptation of an interacting species that can save a focal species from extinction in an unfavorable environment. Although theories suggest that indirect evolutionary rescue may have essential impacts on catchments in the context of fisheries where artificial selection pressure from fishing can drive evolution, its generality and conditions remain uncertain. In this study, by investigating how prey adaptation affects the persistence of a predator subjected to selective harvest with an eco-evolutionary predator-prey model, we find that prey adaptation tends to deteriorate (facilitate) predator persistence when predator's evolvability is high (low). In the system where the predator possesses high evolvability, selection by fisheries inhibits a predator's adaptation to prey, allowing the prey to escape predation by adaptation. Prey adaptation will affect predator persistence negatively, leading to evolutionary murder. Conversely, in the system where the predator's evolvability is low, the removal of predator individuals by fisheries relaxes predation pressure on prey, making the prey less defensive. Vulnerable prey affects predator persistence positively, resulting in indirect evolutionary rescue. The context-dependent response of natural resources to fisheries identified in this study suggests that the eco-evolutionary interplay should be considered for better natural resource management.

Refocusing multiple stressor research around the targets and scales of ecological impacts

Ecological communities face a variety of environmental and anthropogenic stressors acting simultaneously. Stressor impacts can combine additively or can interact, causing synergistic or antagonistic effects. Our knowledge of when and how interactions arise is limited, as most models and experiments only consider the effect of a small number of non-interacting stressors at one or few scales of ecological organization. This is concerning because it could lead to significant underestimations or overestimations of threats to biodiversity. Furthermore, stressors have been largely classified by their source rather than by the mechanisms and ecological scales at which they act (the target). Here, we argue, first, that a more nuanced classification of stressors by target and ecological scale can generate valuable new insights and hypotheses about stressor interactions. Second, that the predictability of multiple stressor effects, and consistent patterns in their impacts, can be evaluated by examining the distribution of stressor effects across targets and ecological scales. Third, that a variety of existing mechanistic and statistical modelling tools can play an important role in our framework and advance multiple stressor research.

Age is not just a number-Mathematical model suggests senescence affects how fish populations respond to different fishing regimes

Senescence is often described as an age-dependent increase in natural mortality (known as actuarial senescence) and an age-dependent decrease in fecundity (known as reproductive senescence), and its role in nature is still poorly understood. Based on empirical estimates of reproductive and actuarial senescence, we used mathematical simulations to explore how senescence affects the population dynamics of Coregonus albula, a small, schooling salmonid fish. Using an empirically based eco-evolutionary model, we investigated how the presence or absence of senescence affects the eco-evolutionary dynamics of a fish population during pristine, intensive harvest, and recovery phases. Our simulation results showed that the presence or absence of senescence affected how the population responded to the selection regime. At an individual level, gillnetting caused a larger decline in asymptotic length when senescence was present, compared to the nonsenescent population, and the opposite occurred when fishing was done by trawling. This change was accompanied by evolution toward younger age at maturity. At the population level, the change in biomass and number of fish in response to different fishery size-selection patterns depended on the presence or absence of senescence. Since most life-history and fisheries models ignore senescence, they may be over-estimating reproductive capacity and under-estimating natural mortality. Our results highlight the need to understand the combined effects of life-history characters such as senescence and fisheries selection regime to ensure the successful management of our natural resources.

Marine food web perspective to fisheries-induced evolution

Fisheries exploitation can cause genetic changes in heritable traits of targeted stocks. The direction of selective pressure forced by harvest acts typically in reverse to natural selection and selects for explicit life histories, usually for younger and smaller spawners with deprived spawning potential. While the consequences that such selection might have on the population dynamics of a single species are well emphasized, we are just beginning to perceive the variety and severity of its propagating effects within the entire marine food webs and ecosystems. Here, we highlight the potential pathways in which fisheries-induced evolution, driven by size-selective fishing, might resonate through globally connected systems. We look at: (i) how a size truncation may induce shifts in ecological niches of harvested species, (ii) how a changed maturation schedule might affect the spawning potential and biomass flow, (iii) how changes in life histories can initiate trophic cascades, (iv) how the role of apex predators may be shifting and (v) whether fisheries-induced evolution could codrive species to depletion and biodiversity loss. Globally increasing effective fishing effort and the uncertain reversibility of eco-evolutionary change induced by fisheries necessitate further research, discussion and precautionary action considering the impacts of fisheries-induced evolution within marine food webs.

Size Selective Harvesting Does Not Result in Reproductive Isolation among Experimental Lines of Zebrafish, Danio rerio: Implications for Managing Harvest-Induced Evolution

Simple Summary

Mortality in fish populations is commonly size-selective. In fisheries, larger fish are preferentially caught while natural predators preferentially consume smaller fish. Removal of certain sized fish from populations and elevated fishing mortality constitute a selection pressure which may change life-history, behaviour and reduce adult body-size. Because behaviour and body-size are related and influence mating preferences and reproductive output, size-selective mortality may favour subpopulations that less readily mate with each other. Our aim is to test this possibility using three experimental lines of zebrafish (Danio rerio) generated in laboratory by removing large-sized, small-sized and random-sized fish for five generations. We tested mating preferences among males and females and tested if they spawned together. We found males and females of all subpopulations to reproduce among themselves. Females generally preferred large-sized males. Females of all lines spawned with males, and males of all lines fertilised eggs of females independent of the subpopulation origin. Our study shows that size-selective mortality typical of fisheries or in populations facing heavy predation does not result in evolution of reproductive barriers. Thus, when populations adapted to fishing pressure come in contact with populations unexposed to such pressures, interbreeding may happen thereby helping exploited populations recover from harvest-induced evolution.

Abstract

Size-selective mortality is common in fish stocks. Positive size-selection happens in fisheries where larger size classes are preferentially targeted while gape-limited natural predation may cause negative size-selection for smaller size classes. As body size and correlated behavioural traits are sexually selected, harvest-induced trait changes may promote prezygotic reproductive barriers among selection lines experiencing differential size-selective mortality. To investigate this, we used three experimental lines of zebrafish (Danio rerio) exposed to positive (large-harvested), negative (small-harvested) and random (control line) size-selective mortality for five generations. We tested prezygotic preferences through choice tests and spawning trials. In the preference tests without controlling for body size, we found that females of all lines preferred males of the generally larger small-harvested line. When the body size of stimulus fish was statistically controlled, this preference disappeared and a weak evidence of line-assortative preference emerged, but only among large-harvested line fish. In subsequent spawning trials, we did not find evidence for line-assortative reproductive allocation in any of the lines. Our study suggests that size-selection due to fisheries or natural predation does not result in reproductive isolation. Gene flow between wild-populations and populations adapted to size-selected mortality may happen during secondary contact which can speed up trait recovery.

Density-dependent natural selection mediates harvest-induced trait changes

Rapid life-history changes caused by size-selective harvesting are often interpreted as a response to direct harvest selection against a large body size. However, similar trait changes may result from a harvest-induced relaxation of natural selection for a large body size via density-dependent selection. Here, we show evidence of such density-dependent selection favouring large-bodied individuals at high population densities, in replicated pond populations of medaka fish. Harvesting, in contrast, selected medaka directly against a large body size and, in parallel, decreased medaka population densities. Five years of harvesting were enough for harvested and unharvested medaka populations to inherit the classically predicted trait differences, whereby harvested medaka grew slower and matured earlier than unharvested medaka. We show that this life-history divergence was not driven by direct harvest selection for a smaller body size in harvested populations, but by density-dependent natural selection for a larger body size in unharvested populations.

Unidirectional response to bidirectional selection on body size. I. Phenotypic, life-history, and endocrine responses

Anthropogenic perturbations such as harvesting often select against a large body size and are predicted to induce rapid evolution toward smaller body sizes and earlier maturation. However, body‐size evolvability and, hence, adaptability to anthropogenic perturbations remain seldom evaluated in wild populations. Here, we use a laboratory experiment over 6 generations to measure the ability of wild‐caught medaka fish (Oryzias latipes) to evolve in response to bidirectional size‐dependent selection mimicking opposite harvest regimes. Specifically, we imposed selection against a small body size (Large line), against a large body size (Small line) or random selection (Control line), and measured correlated responses across multiple phenotypic, life‐history, and endocrine traits. As expected, the Large line evolved faster somatic growth and delayed maturation, but also evolved smaller body sizes at hatch, with no change in average levels of pituitary gene expressions of luteinizing, follicle‐stimulating, or growth hormones (GH). In contrast, the Small medaka line was unable to evolve smaller body sizes or earlier maturation, but evolved smaller body sizes at hatch and showed marginally significant signs of increased reproductive investment, including larger egg sizes and elevated pituitary GH production. Natural selection on medaka body size was too weak to significantly hinder the effect of artificial selection, indicating that the asymmetric body‐size response to size‐dependent selection reflected an asymmetry in body‐size evolvability. Our results show that trait evolvability may be contingent upon the direction of selection and that a detailed knowledge of trait evolutionary potential is needed to forecast population response to anthropogenic change.

Reaction norm analysis reveals rapid shifts toward delayed maturation in harvested Lake Erie yellow perch (Perca flavescens)

Harvested marine fish stocks often show a rapid and substantial decline in the age and size at maturation. Such changes can arise from multiple processes including fisheries-induced evolution, phenotypic plasticity, and responses to environmental factors other than harvest. The relative importance of these processes could differ systematically between marine and freshwater systems. We tested for temporal shifts in the mean and within-cohort variability of age- and size-based maturation probabilities of female yellow perch (Perca flavescens Mitchill) from four management units (MUs) in Lake Erie. Lake Erie yellow perch have been commercially harvested for more than a century, and age and size at maturation have varied since sampling began in the 1980s. Our analysis compared probabilistic maturation reaction norms (PMRNs) for cohorts when abundance was lower and harvest higher (1993-1998) to cohorts when abundance was higher and harvest lower (2005-2010). PMRNs have been used in previous studies to detect signs of evolutionary change in response to harvest. Maturation size threshold increased between the early and late cohorts, and the increases were statistically significant for the youngest age in the western MU1 and for older ages in the eastern MU3. Maturation envelope widths, a measure of the variability in maturation among individuals in a cohort, also increased between early and late cohorts in the western MUs where harvest was highest. The highest rates of change in size at maturation for a given age were as large or larger than rates reported for harvested marine fishes where declines in age and size at maturation have been observed. Contrary to the general observation of earlier maturation evolving in harvested stocks, female yellow perch in Lake Erie may be rapidly evolving delayed maturation since harvest was relaxed in the late 1990s, providing a rare example of possible evolutionary recovery.

Harvest selection on multiple traits in the wild revealed by aquatic animal telemetry

Harvesting can have profound impacts on the ecology and evolution of marine populations. However, little is known about the strength and direction of fisheries-induced selection acting on multiple traits in the wild. Here, we used acoustic telemetry to directly monitor individual behavior and fate in an intensively harvested species, the European lobster (Homarus gammarus, n = 100), in southern Norway. Overall, 24% of the tracked lobsters survived the two-month harvest season within the study area. Our results indicated that local survival was not random with respect to phenotype. We found no clear support for fisheries-induced selection acting directly on body size. However, lobsters with large crusher claws relative to their body size, typical of socially dominant individuals, appeared at higher risk of being captured in the conventional trap fishery. We also detected a fine-scale spatial gradient in survival. After accounting for this gradient, individuals displaying larger home ranges were more likely to survive the harvest season. Finally, we found significant repeatabilities for lobster behavior on a monthly timescale, indicating that individual behavioral attributes tended to persist and may reflect personality. Our study therefore provides empirical support for the need to consider an evolutionary enlightened approach to fisheries management that considers the influence of harvest on multiple traits of target species.

A function-valued trait approach to estimating the genetic basis of size at age and its potential role in fisheries-induced evolution

Natural selection is inherently a multivariate phenomenon. The selection pressure on size (natural and artificial) and the age at which selection occurs is likely to induce evolutionary changes in growth rates across the entire life history. However, the covariance structure that will determine the path of evolution for size at age has been studied in only a few fish species. We therefore estimated the genetic covariance function for size throughout ontogeny using Atlantic silversides (Menidia menidia) as the model system. Over a 3-year period, a total of 542 families were used to estimate the genetic covariance in length at age from hatch through maturity. The function-valued trait approach was employed to estimate the genetic covariance functions. A Bayesian hierarchical model was used to account for the unbalanced design, unequal measurement intervals, unequal sample sizes, and family-aggregated data. To improve mixing, we developed a two-stage sampler using a Gibbs sampler to generate the posterior of a well-mixing approximate model followed by an importance sampler to draw samples from posterior of the completely specified model. We found that heritability of length is age-specific and there are strong genetic correlations in length across ages that last 30 days or more. We used these estimates in a hypothetical model predicting the evolutionary response to harvesting following a single generation of selection under both sigmoidal and unimodal patterns of gear selectivity to illustrate the potential outcomes of ignoring the genetic correlations. In these scenarios, genetic correlations were found to have a strong effect on both the direction and magnitude of the response to harvest selection.

A method to improve fishing selectivity through age targeted fishing using life stage distribution modelling

Understanding spatial distributions of fish species is important to those seeking to manage fisheries and advise on marine developments. Distribution patterns, habitat use, and aggregative behaviour often vary throughout the life cycle and can increase the vulnerability of certain life stages to anthropogenic impacts. Here we investigate distribution changes during the life cycle of whiting (Merlangius merlangus) to the west of the UK. Density distributions for age-0, age-1 and mature fish were modelled as functions of environmental variables using generalised additive mixed effects models. The greatest densities of age-0 whiting occurred over finer sediments where temperatures were between 12 to 13°C. Age-0 whiting densities decreased with increasing depth. Higher densities of age-1 whiting were also associated with fine sediments and peaked at 60 m, but this influence was also dependent on proximity to shore. Mature fish, while showing no association with any particular sediment type, were strongly associated with depths >60 m. Geostatistical aggregation curves were used to classify space use and showed persistent aggregations of age-0 whiting occupying inshore waters while age-1 and mature fish were more dispersed and differed among years. The differences in distributions among life stages suggested a general coastal to offshore shift as cohorts developed with mature whiting mainly occupying deep offshore waters. The spatial dynamics and areas of persistent life stage aggregation identified here could enable informed targeting and avoidance of specific age-class whiting to aid bycatch reduction. Given that landing obligation legislation is counterproductive unless it encourages greater fishing selectivity, the ability to avoid this species and undersized individuals would aid conservation measures and fishermen alike.

Influence of harvest restrictions on angler release behaviour and size selection in a recreational fishery

Fishing regulations such as harvest restrictions are implemented to limit the exploitation of many fish stocks and ensure the sustainability of fisheries. In Norway, inland recreational fisheries are co-managed by the government and by local riparian rights holders, meaning that Atlantic salmon Salmo salar harvest restrictions differ somewhat among rivers. Data from Norwegian rivers from 2009 to 2013 were used to test for variation in the proportion of salmon released by anglers and the relative size of salmon harvested and released by anglers in rivers that had varying harvest restrictions in terms of quotas, size restrictions, and/or female harvest restrictions. The proportion of the catch released by anglers was higher in rivers where there were harvest restrictions (proportion released = 0.09-0.24) than in rivers with no such restrictions (proportion released = 0.01). On average, salmon released in rivers with size restrictions larger (average mass difference between harvested and released salmon = -1.25 kg) than those released in rivers without harvest restrictions (difference = 0.60 kg). The proportion of the catch released was larger in rivers with seasonal quotas (0.29) than in rivers with daily (0.07) or collective (i.e. total catch for the river; 0.06) quotas. Rivers with low daily (one salmon per angler per day) or seasonal (<5 salmon per angler per year) quotas had a larger proportion of salmon released (0.23, 0.38, respectively) than rivers with moderate (0.10, 0.21) or high (0.07, 0.16) quotas. High seasonal quotas resulted in larger individuals harvested than released (difference = 1.16 kg), on average, compared to moderate (1.22 kg) and high seasonal quotas (-0.30 kg). We conclude that harvest restrictions influenced the extent to which fish were released and thus the stock composition (i.e. size distribution) escaping the recreational fishery with the potential to spawn.

Vulnerability of individual fish to capture by trawling is influenced by capacity for anaerobic metabolism

The harvest of animals by humans may constitute one of the strongest evolutionary forces affecting wild populations. Vulnerability to harvest varies among individuals within species according to behavioural phenotypes, but we lack fundamental information regarding the physiological mechanisms underlying harvest-induced selection. It is unknown, for example, what physiological traits make some individual fish more susceptible to capture by commercial fisheries. Active fishing methods such as trawling pursue fish during harvest attempts, causing fish to use both aerobic steady-state swimming and anaerobic burst-type swimming to evade capture. Using simulated trawling procedures with schools of wild minnows Phoxinus phoxinus, we investigate two key questions to the study of fisheries-induced evolution that have been impossible to address using large-scale trawls: (i) are some individuals within a fish shoal consistently more susceptible to capture by trawling than others?; and (ii) if so, is this related to individual differences in swimming performance and metabolism? Results provide the first evidence of repeatable variation in susceptibility to trawling that is strongly related to anaerobic capacity and swimming ability. Maximum aerobic swim speed was also negatively correlated with vulnerability to trawling. Standard metabolic rate was highest among fish that were least vulnerable to trawling, but this relationship probably arose through correlations with anaerobic capacity. These results indicate that vulnerability to trawling is linked to anaerobic swimming performance and metabolic demand, drawing parallels with factors influencing susceptibility to natural predators. Selection on these traits by fisheries could induce shifts in the fundamental physiological makeup and function of descendent populations.

Does boldness explain vulnerability to angling in Eurasian perch Perca fluviatilis?

Consistent individual differences (CIDs) in behavior are of interest to both basic and applied research, because any selection acting on them could induce evolution of animal behavior. It has been suggested that CIDs in the behavior of fish might explain individual differences in vulnerability to fishing. If so, fishing could impose selection on fish behavior. In this study, we assessed boldness-indicating behaviors of Eurasian perch Perca fluviatilis using individually conducted experiments measuring the time taken to explore a novel arena containing predator (burbot, Lota lota) cues. We studied if individual differences in boldness would explain vulnerability of individually tagged perch to experimental angling in outdoor ponds, or if fishing would impose selection on boldness-indicating behavior. Perch expressed repeatable individual differences in boldness-indicating behavior but the individual boldness-score (the first principal component) obtained using principal component analysis combining all the measured behavioral responses did not explain vulnerability to experimental angling. Instead, large body size appeared as the only statistically significant predictor of capture probability. Our results suggest that angling is selective for large size, but not always selective for high boldness.

Avoidance of fisheries-induced evolution: management implications for catch selectivity and limit reference points

I examined how the fitness (r) associated with early- and late-maturing genotypes varies with fishing mortality (F) and age-/size-specific probability of capture. Life-history data on Newfoundland's northern Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) allowed for the estimation of r for individuals maturing at 4 and 7 year in the absence of fishing. Catch selectivity data associated with four types of fishing gear (trap, gillnet, handline, otter trawl) were then incorporated to examine how r varied with gear type and with F. The resulting fitness functions were then used to estimate the F above which selection would favour early (4 year) rather than delayed (7 year) maturity. This evolutionarily-sensitive threshold, F evol, identifies a limit reference point somewhat similar to those used to define overfishing (e.g., F msy, F 0.1). Over-exploitation of northern cod resulted in fishing mortalities considerably greater than those required to effect evolutionary change. Selection for early maturity is reduced by the dome-shaped selectivities characteristic of fixed gears such as handlines (the greater the leptokurtosis, the lower the probability of a selection response) and enhanced by the knife-edged selectivities of bottom trawls. Strategies to minimize genetic change are consistent with traditional management objectives (e.g., yield maximization, population increase). Compliance with harvest control rules guided by evolutionarily-sensitive limit reference points, which may be achieved by adherence to traditional reference points such as F msy and F 0.1, should be sufficient to minimize the probability of fisheries-induced evolution for commercially exploited species.

Novel life-history data for threatened seahorses provide insight into fishery effects

Life-history variables for three incidentally captured species of seahorse (Kellogg's seahorse Hippocampus kelloggi, the hedgehog seahorse Hippocampus spinosissimus and the three-spot seahorse Hippocampus trimaculatus) were established using specimens obtained from 33 fisheries landing sites in Peninsular Malaysia. When samples were pooled by species across the peninsula, sex ratios were not significantly different from unity, and height and mass relationships were significant for all species. For two of these species, height at physical maturity (HM ) was smaller than the height at which reproductive activity (HR ) commenced: H. spinosissimus (HM = 99·6 mm, HR = 123·2 mm) and H. trimaculatus (HM = 90·5 mm, HR = 121·8 mm). For H. kelloggi, HM could not be estimated as all individuals were physically mature, while HR = 167·4 mm. It appears that all three Hippocampus spp. were, on average, caught before reproducing; height at 50% capture (HC ) was ≥HM but ≤HR . The results from this study probe the effectiveness of assessment techniques for data-poor fisheries that rely heavily on estimates of length at maturity, especially if maturity is poorly defined. Findings also question the sustainability of H. trimaculatus catches in the south-west region of Peninsular Malaysia, where landed specimens had a notably smaller mean height (86·2 mm) and markedly skewed sex ratio (6% males) compared with samples from the south-east and north-west of the peninsula.

Evolutionary impact assessment: accounting for evolutionary consequences of fishing in an ecosystem approach to fisheries management

Managing fisheries resources to maintain healthy ecosystems is one of the main goals of the ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF). While a number of international treaties call for the implementation of EAF, there are still gaps in the underlying methodology. One aspect that has received substantial scientific attention recently is fisheries-induced evolution (FIE). Increasing evidence indicates that intensive fishing has the potential to exert strong directional selection on life-history traits, behaviour, physiology, and morphology of exploited fish. Of particular concern is that reversing evolutionary responses to fishing can be much more difficult than reversing demographic or phenotypically plastic responses. Furthermore, like climate change, multiple agents cause FIE, with effects accumulating over time. Consequently, FIE may alter the utility derived from fish stocks, which in turn can modify the monetary value living aquatic resources provide to society. Quantifying and predicting the evolutionary effects of fishing is therefore important for both ecological and economic reasons. An important reason this is not happening is the lack of an appropriate assessment framework. We therefore describe the evolutionary impact assessment (EvoIA) as a structured approach for assessing the evolutionary consequences of fishing and evaluating the predicted evolutionary outcomes of alternative management options. EvoIA can contribute to EAF by clarifying how evolution may alter stock properties and ecological relations, support the precautionary approach to fisheries management by addressing a previously overlooked source of uncertainty and risk, and thus contribute to sustainable fisheries.

How fast is fisheries-induced evolution? Quantitative analysis of modelling and empirical studies

A number of theoretical models, experimental studies and time-series studies of wild fish have explored the presence and magnitude of fisheries-induced evolution (FIE). While most studies agree that FIE is likely to be happening in many fished stocks, there are disagreements about its rates and implications for stock viability. To address these disagreements in a quantitative manner, we conducted a meta-analysis of FIE rates reported in theoretical and empirical studies. We discovered that rates of phenotypic change observed in wild fish are about four times higher than the evolutionary rates reported in modelling studies, but correlation between the rate of change and instantaneous fishing mortality (F) was very similar in the two types of studies. Mixed-model analyses showed that in the modelling studies traits associated with reproductive investment and growth evolved slower than rates related to maturation. In empirical observations age-at-maturation was changing faster than other life-history traits. We also found that, despite different assumption and modelling approaches, rates of evolution for a given F value reported in 10 of 13 modelling studies were not significantly different.

Quantifying and comparing size selectivity among Alaskan sockeye salmon fisheries

Quantifying long-term size-selective harvest patterns is necessary for understanding the potential evolutionary effects on exploited species. The comparison of fishery selection patterns on the same species subject to different gear types, in different areas, and over multi-decadal periods can reveal the factors influencing selection. In this study we quantified and compared size-selective harvest by nine Alaskan sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) fisheries to understand overall patterns. We calculated length-specific linear selection differentials (the difference in average length of fish before vs. after fishing), which are produced by different combinations of exploitation rates and length-selectivity values, and nonlinear standardized differentials, describing disruptive selection, across all years for each fishery. Selection differentials varied among years, but larger fish were caught in 73% of years for males and 84% of years for females, leaving smaller fish to spawn. Disruptive selection was observed on female and male fish in 84% and 92% of years, respectively. Linear selection was stronger on females than males in 77% of years examined, and disruptive selection was stronger on males in 71% of years. Selection pressure was influenced by a combination of factors under and beyond management control; analyses using mixed-effects models indicated that fisheries were less size selective in years when fish were larger than average and had lower exploitation rates. The observed harvest of larger than average sockeye salmon is consistent with the hypothesis that size-selective fishing contributes to decreasing age and length at maturation trends over time, but temporal variability in selection and strong disruptive selection suggests that the overall directional pressure is weaker than is often assumed in evolutionary models.

Consequences of fisheries-induced evolution for population productivity and recovery potential

Fisheries-induced evolution has become a major branch of the research on anthropogenic and contemporary evolution. Within the conservation context, fisheries-induced evolution has been hypothesized to negatively affect the persistence and recovery potential of depleted populations, but this has not been explicitly investigated. Here, we investigate how fisheries-induced evolution of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) life histories affects per capita population growth rate, a parameter negatively correlated with extinction risk. We simulate the evolutionary and ecological dynamics of a cod population for a 100 year period of size-selective harvesting, followed thereafter by 300 years of recovery. To evaluate the relative importance of harvest-induced evolution, we either allowed life histories to evolve during and after the fishing period, or we assumed that fisheries-induced evolution was absent. Population growth rates did not differ appreciably between the evolutionary and non-evolutionary simulation scenarios, despite the emergence of rather pronounced differences in life histories. The underlying reason was that in the absence of fishing the cumulative lifetime reproductive outputs were very similar among differing life histories. The results suggest that fisheries-induced evolution might not always have as clear-cut an effect on population growth rate as previously anticipated.

Evolutionary and ecological feedbacks of the survival cost of reproduction

Arguably the most fundamental of trade-offs in life-history evolution is the increase in natural mortality resulting from sexual maturity and reproduction. Despite its central importance, this increase in mortality, a survival cost, garners surprisingly little attention in fish and fisheries modeling studies. We undertook an exploratory analysis to evaluate the consequences of this omission for life-history projections. To this end, we developed a simulation approach that integrates quantitative genetics into the ecological dynamics of a fish population and parameterized the model for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua, L.). When compared to simulations in which the mortality of immature and mature individuals is equal, the inclusion of a survival cost results in larger asymptotic body size, older age at maturity, and larger size at maturity. We also find that measures of population productivity (spawning stock biomass, recruits-per-spawner) are overestimated if the survival cost is excluded. This sensitivity of key metrics of population growth rate and reproductive capacity to the magnitude of the survival cost of reproduction underscores the need to explicitly account for this trade-off in projections of fish population responses to natural and anthropogenic environmental change, including fisheries.

Simulating fishery-induced evolution in chinook salmon: the role of gear, location, and genetic correlation among traits

Adaptation to human-modified ecosystems has been implicated in changing the life history of a number of wild animal populations, potentially contributing to their collapse. Fishing may be an important evolutionary force that can change the distribution of fitness-related traits; however, the magnitude and direction of the evolutionary response may be influenced by different management strategies. Most phenotypic traits subject to human-induced selection are simultaneously influenced by the environment and by genetic variation, and many traits are genetically correlated. Here, we evaluated the evolutionary outcomes of harvest activities on mean length and age at maturity in a fish population by coupling a multivariate quantitative genetic model with a Leslie life history matrix model. Lengths-at-ages were treated as genetically correlated characters parameterized from empirical data on chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) populations. Using simulations, we explored the outcomes of 100 years of harvest using gill nets, which impose disruptive selection, or longlines, which impose minimum size selection, that targeted immature individuals in the high seas or maturing individuals in terminal spawning areas. Response in mean length and age depended on selection differentials imposed by harvest (which depended in turn on fishing location, gear type, and proportion of the population harvested) and on the genetic correlations between traits. Mean length was strongly influenced by the selection differential of the most abundant age class. Large differences in response were observed between the high-seas fishery, where the most abundant age was the youngest age vulnerable to harvest, compared to the terminal area fishery, where an older age class was most abundant. We observed a substantial difference in response between gill nets and longlines in the terminal fishery only. The evolution of mean age of mature individuals was less predictable, but generally increased as length decreased and decreased as length increased. The model presented here has potential for incorporating empirical data into fisheries forecasting and therefore provides a powerful means of integrating evolutionary considerations into harvest management.

Quantifying six decades of fishery selection for size and age at maturity in sockeye salmon

Life history traits of wild animals can be strongly influenced, both phenotypically and evolutionarily, by hunting and fishing. However, few studies have quantified fishery selection over long time periods. We used 57 years of catch and escapement data to document the magnitude of and trends in gillnet selection on age and size at maturity of a commercially and biologically important sockeye salmon stock. Overall, the fishery has caught larger fish than have escaped to spawn, but selection has varied over time, becoming weaker and less consistent recently. Selection patterns were strongly affected by fish age and sex, in addition to extrinsic factors including fish abundance, mesh size regulations, and fish length variability. These results revealed a more complex and changing pattern of selective harvest than the 'larger is more vulnerable' model, emphasizing the need for quantified, multi-year studies before conclusions can be drawn about potential evolutionary and ecological effects of fishery selection. Furthermore, the results indicate that biologically robust escapement goals and prevention of harvest of the largest individuals may help prevent negative effects of size-selective harvest.