Anthropogenic disturbance and evolutionary parameters: a lemon shark population experiencing habitat loss

Accounting for unobserved population dynamics and aging error in close-kin mark-recapture assessments

Obtaining robust estimates of population abundance is a central challenge hindering the conservation and management of many threatened and exploited species. Close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) is a genetics-based approach that has strong potential to improve the monitoring of data-limited species by enabling estimates of abundance, survival, and other parameters for populations that are challenging to assess. However, CKMR models have received limited sensitivity testing under realistic population dynamics and sampling scenarios, impeding the application of the method in population monitoring programs and stock assessments. Here, we use individual-based simulation to examine how unmodeled population dynamics and aging uncertainty affect the accuracy and precision of CKMR parameter estimates under different sampling strategies. We then present adapted models that correct the biases that arise from model misspecification. Our results demonstrate that a simple base-case CKMR model produces robust estimates of population abundance with stable populations that breed annually; however, if a population trend or non-annual breeding dynamics are present, or if year-specific estimates of abundance are desired, a more complex CKMR model must be constructed. In addition, we show that CKMR can generate reliable abundance estimates for adults from a variety of sampling strategies, including juvenile-focused sampling where adults are never directly observed (and aging error is minimal). Finally, we apply a CKMR model that has been adapted for population growth and intermittent breeding to two decades of genetic data from juvenile lemon sharks (Negaprion brevirostris) in Bimini, Bahamas, to demonstrate how application of CKMR to samples drawn solely from juveniles can contribute to monitoring efforts for highly mobile populations. Overall, this study expands our understanding of the biological factors and sampling decisions that cause bias in CKMR models, identifies key areas for future inquiry, and provides recommendations that can aid biologists in planning and implementing an effective CKMR study, particularly for long-lived data-limited species.

Genomic evidence indicates small island-resident populations and sex-biased behaviors of Hawaiian reef Manta Rays

BACKGROUND

Reef manta rays (Mobula alfredi) are globally distributed in tropical and subtropical seas. Their life history traits (slow growth, late maturity, low reproductive output) make them vulnerable to perturbations and therefore require informed management strategies. Previous studies have reported wide-spread genetic connectivity along continental shelves suggesting high gene flow along continuous habitats spanning hundreds of kilometers. However, in the Hawaiian Islands, tagging and photo-identification evidence suggest island populations are isolated despite proximity, a hypothesis that has not yet been evaluated with genetic data.

RESULTS

This island-resident hypothesis was tested by analyzing whole mitogenome haplotypes and 2048 nuclear single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) between M. alfredi (n = 38) on Hawai'i Island and Maui Nui (the 4-island complex of Maui, Moloka'i, Lāna'i and Kaho'olawe). Strong divergence in the mitogenome (ΦST = 0.488) relative to nuclear genome-wide SNPs (neutral FST = 0.003; outlier FST = 0.186), and clustering of mitochondrial haplotypes among islands provides robust evidence that female reef manta rays are strongly philopatric and do not migrate between these two island groups. Combined with restricted male-mediated migration, equivalent to a single male moving between islands every 2.2 generations (~ 64 years), we provide evidence these populations are significantly demographically isolated. Estimates of contemporary effective population size (Ne) are 104 (95% CI: 99-110) in Hawai'i Island and 129 (95% CI: 122-136) in Maui Nui.

CONCLUSIONS

Concordant with evidence from photo identification and tagging studies, these genetic results indicate reef manta rays in Hawai'i have small, genetically-isolated resident island populations. We hypothesize that due to the Island Mass Effect, large islands provide sufficient resources to support resident populations, thereby making crossing deep channels separating island groups unnecessary. Small effective population size, low genetic diversity, and k-selected life history traits make these isolated populations vulnerable to region-specific anthropogenic threats, which include entanglement, boat strikes, and habitat degradation. The long-term persistence of reef manta rays in the Hawaiian Islands will require island-specific management strategies.

Human influences on the strength of phenotypic selection

Human activities are driving rapid phenotypic change in many species, with harvesting considered to be a particularly potent evolutionary force. We hypothesized that faster evolutionary change in human-disturbed populations could be caused by a strengthening of phenotypic selection, for example, if human disturbances trigger maladaptation and/or increase the opportunity for selection. We tested this hypothesis by synthesizing 1,366 phenotypic selection coefficients from 37 species exposed to various anthropogenic disturbances, including harvest. We used a paired design that only included studies measuring selection on the same traits in both human-disturbed and control (not obviously human-disturbed "natural") populations. Surprisingly, this meta-analysis did not reveal stronger selection in human-disturbed environments; in fact, we even found some evidence that human disturbances might slightly reduce selection strength. The only clear exceptions were two fisheries showing very strong harvest selection. On closer inspection, we discovered that many disturbances weakened selection by increasing absolute fitness and by decreasing the opportunity for selection-thus explaining what initially seemed a counterintuitive result. We discuss how human disturbances can sometimes weaken rather than strengthen selection, and why measuring the total effect of disturbances on selection is exceedingly difficult. Despite these challenges, documenting human influences on selection can reveal disturbances with particularly strong effects (e.g., fishing), and thus better inform the management of populations exposed to these disturbances.

Evidence for Selection-by-Environment but Not Genotype-by-Environment Interactions for Fitness-Related Traits in a Wild Mammal Population

How do environmental conditions influence selection and genetic variation in wild populations? There is widespread evidence for selection-by-environment interactions (S*E), but we reviewed studies of natural populations estimating the extent of genotype-by-environment interactions (G*E) in response to natural variation in environmental conditions and found that evidence for G*E appears to be rare within single populations in the wild. Studies estimating the simultaneous impact of environmental variation on both selection and genetic variation are especially scarce. Here, we used 24 years of data collected from a wild Soay sheep population to quantify how an important environmental variable, population density, impacts upon (1) selection through annual contribution to fitness and (2) expression of genetic variation, in six morphological and life history traits: body weight, hind leg length, parasite burden, horn length, horn growth, and testicular circumference. Our results supported the existence of S*E: selection was stronger in years of higher population density for all traits apart from horn growth, with directional selection being stronger under more adverse conditions. Quantitative genetic models revealed significant additive genetic variance for body weight, leg length, parasite burden, horn length, and testes size, but not for horn growth or our measure of annual fitness. However, random regression models found variation between individuals in their responses to the environment in only three traits, and did not support the presence of G*E for any trait. Our analyses of St Kilda Soay sheep data thus concurs with our cross-study review that, while natural environmental variation within a population can profoundly alter the strength of selection on phenotypic traits, there is less evidence for its effect on the expression of genetic variance in the wild.

Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences

Humans have dramatic, diverse and far-reaching influences on the evolution of other organisms. Numerous examples of this human-induced contemporary evolution have been reported in a number of 'contexts', including hunting, harvesting, fishing, agriculture, medicine, climate change, pollution, eutrophication, urbanization, habitat fragmentation, biological invasions and emerging/disappearing diseases. Although numerous papers, journal special issues and books have addressed each of these contexts individually, the time has come to consider them together and thereby seek important similarities and differences. The goal of this special issue, and this introductory paper, is to promote and expand this nascent integration. We first develop predictions as to which human contexts might cause the strongest and most consistent directional selection, the greatest changes in evolutionary potential, the greatest genetic (as opposed to plastic) changes and the greatest effects on evolutionary diversification We then develop predictions as to the contexts where human-induced evolutionary changes might have the strongest effects on the population dynamics of the focal evolving species, the structure of their communities, the functions of their ecosystems and the benefits and costs for human societies. These qualitative predictions are intended as a rallying point for broader and more detailed future discussions of how human influences shape evolution, and how that evolution then influences species traits, biodiversity, ecosystems and humans.This article is part of the themed issue 'Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences'.

Understanding and monitoring the consequences of human impacts on intraspecific variation

Intraspecific variation is a major component of biodiversity, yet it has received relatively little attention from governmental and nongovernmental organizations, especially with regard to conservation plans and the management of wild species. This omission is ill-advised because phenotypic and genetic variations within and among populations can have dramatic effects on ecological and evolutionary processes, including responses to environmental change, the maintenance of species diversity, and ecological stability and resilience. At the same time, environmental changes associated with many human activities, such as land use and climate change, have dramatic and often negative impacts on intraspecific variation. We argue for the need for local, regional, and global programs to monitor intraspecific genetic variation. We suggest that such monitoring should include two main strategies: (i) intensive monitoring of multiple types of genetic variation in selected species and (ii) broad-brush modeling for representative species for predicting changes in variation as a function of changes in population size and range extent. Overall, we call for collaborative efforts to initiate the urgently needed monitoring of intraspecific variation.

Modeling the population dynamics of lemon sharks

Background

Long-lived marine megavertebrates (e.g. sharks, turtles, mammals, and seabirds) are inherently vulnerable to anthropogenic mortality. Although some mathematical models have been applied successfully to manage these animals, more detailed treatments are often needed to assess potential drivers of population dynamics. In particular, factors such as age-structure, density-dependent feedbacks on reproduction, and demographic stochasticity are important for understanding population trends, but are often difficult to assess. Lemon sharks (Negaprion brevirostris) have a pelagic adult phase that makes them logistically difficult to study. However, juveniles use coastal nursery areas where their densities can be high.

Results

We use a stage-structured, Markov-chain stochastic model to describe lemon shark population dynamics from a 17-year longitudinal dataset at a coastal nursery area at Bimini, Bahamas. We found that the interaction between delayed breeding, density-dependence, and demographic stochasticity accounts for 33 to 49% of the variance in population size.

Conclusions

Demographic stochasticity contributed all random effects in this model, suggesting that the existence of unmodeled environmental factors may be driving the majority of interannual population fluctuations. In addition, we are able to use our model to estimate the natural mortality rate of older age classes of lemon sharks that are difficult to study. Further, we use our model to examine what effect the length of a time series plays on deciphering ecological patterns. We find that—even with a relatively long time series—our sampling still misses important rare events. Our approach can be used more broadly to infer population dynamics of other large vertebrates in which age structure and demographic stochasticity are important.

Reviewers

This article was reviewed by Yang Kuang, Christine Jacob, and Ollivier Hyrien.

Probabilistic maturation reaction norms assessed from mark-recaptures of wild fish in their natural habitat

Reaction norms are a valuable tool in evolutionary biology. Lately, the probabilistic maturation reaction norm approach, describing probabilities of maturing at combinations of age and body size, has been much applied for testing whether phenotypic changes in exploited populations of fish are mainly plastic or involving an evolutionary component. However, due to typical field data limitations, with imperfect knowledge about individual life histories, this demographic method still needs to be assessed. Using 13 years of direct mark-recapture observations on individual growth and maturation in an intensively sampled population of brown trout (Salmo trutta), we show that the probabilistic maturation reaction norm approach may perform well even if the assumption of equal survival of juvenile and maturing fish does not hold. Earlier studies have pointed out that growth effects may confound the interpretation of shifts in maturation reaction norms, because this method in its basic form deals with body size rather than growth. In our case, however, we found that juvenile body size, rather than annual growth, was more strongly associated with maturation. Viewed against earlier studies, our results also underscore the challenges of generalizing life-history patterns among species and populations.

Evolutionary and ecological feedbacks of the survival cost of reproduction

Arguably the most fundamental of trade-offs in life-history evolution is the increase in natural mortality resulting from sexual maturity and reproduction. Despite its central importance, this increase in mortality, a survival cost, garners surprisingly little attention in fish and fisheries modeling studies. We undertook an exploratory analysis to evaluate the consequences of this omission for life-history projections. To this end, we developed a simulation approach that integrates quantitative genetics into the ecological dynamics of a fish population and parameterized the model for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua, L.). When compared to simulations in which the mortality of immature and mature individuals is equal, the inclusion of a survival cost results in larger asymptotic body size, older age at maturity, and larger size at maturity. We also find that measures of population productivity (spawning stock biomass, recruits-per-spawner) are overestimated if the survival cost is excluded. This sensitivity of key metrics of population growth rate and reproductive capacity to the magnitude of the survival cost of reproduction underscores the need to explicitly account for this trade-off in projections of fish population responses to natural and anthropogenic environmental change, including fisheries.

Changes in parasitoid communities over time and space: a historical case study of the maize pest Ostrinia nubilalis

Understanding the ways in which human environmental modifications affect biodiversity is a key challenge in conservation planning, pest control and evolutionary ecology. Parasitoid communities, particularly those associated with agricultural pests, may be susceptible to such modifications. We document here changes in the larval parasitoid communities of Ostrinia nubilalis--the main pest of maize--and its sibling species O. scapulalis, based on two historical datasets, one collected from 1921-1928 and the other from 2001-2005. Each of these datasets encompasses several years and large geographical areas and was based on several thousands/millions of host larvae. The 80-year interval between the two datasets was marked by a decrease in O. nubilalis parasitism to about two thirds its initial level, mostly due to a decrease in the rate of parasitism by hymenopterans. However, a well balanced loss and gain of species ensured that species richness remained stable. Conversely, O. scapulalis displayed stable rates of parasitism over this period, with a decline in the species richness of its parasitoid community. Rates of parasitism and species richness in regions colonized by O. nubilalis during the 1950s were one half to one third those in regions displaying long-term colonisation by this pest. During the recent human activity-driven expansion of its range, O. nubilalis has neither captured native parasitoids nor triggered parasite spill back or spill over.