One-year estimated glomerular filtration rate decline as a risk factor of cardiovascular and renal end-points in high-risk Japanese patients

Search for surrogate markers to predict end stage kidney disease in long term lithium users

BACKGROUND

A surrogate marker (a substitute indicator of the true outcome) is needed to predict subgroups of long-term lithium users at risk of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). In this narrative review the aim is to determine the optimal surrogate endpoint for ESKD in long-term lithium users in a scientific context. MAIN: In a literature search in long-term lithium users, no studies on surrogate measurements on ESKD were identified. Therefore, comparable ESKD populations were sought, based on baseline eGFR, age, somatic comorbidity and sex. Articles were scored on comparability and risk of bias. Seventeen studies were included; ten studies evaluated a percentual decline (between 20 and 50% decline in eGFR) and seven studies focused upon a declining slope (from 1.63 to 6 ml/min/1,73m2 decline per year), using an interval of one to five years. Study populations mostly included patients with cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease.

CONCLUSION

Currently, the most appropriate marker for ESKD in long term lithium users appears a 30% decline in eGFR in at least one year. In order to confirm this hypothesis, further research in a cohort of long-term lithium users is needed. Better feasible research on lithium induced nephropathy could result in more knowledge about the risk on kidney function decline in lithium users and guide clinical decision making on lithium use.

A machine learning model for predicting worsening renal function using one-year time series data in patients with type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

To prevent end-stage renal disease caused by diabetic kidney disease, we created a predictive model for high-risk patients using machine learning.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The reference point was the time at which each patient's estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) first fell below 60 mL/min/1.73 m2. The input period spanned the reference point to 1 year prior. The primary endpoint was a 50% decrease in eGFR from the mean of the input period over the 3 year evaluation period. We created predictive models for patients' primary endpoints using time series data of various variables over the input period. Among 2,533 total patients, 1,409 had reference points, 31 had records for their input and evaluation periods and had reached their primary endpoints, and 317 patients had not. The area under the curve (AUC) of the predictive model peaked (0.81) when the minimum eGFR, the difference between maximum and minimum eGFR, and both maximum and minimum urinary protein values were included in the features.

CONCLUSION

The accuracy of prognosis prediction can be improved by considering the variable components of urinary protein and eGFR levels. This model will allow us to identify patients whose renal functions are relatively preserved with eGFR of more than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and are likely to benefit clinically from immediate treatment intensification.

Add-on astragalus in type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease: A multi-center, assessor-blind, randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Diabetes leads to chronic kidney disease (CKD) and kidney failure, requiring dialysis or transplantation. Astragalus, a common herbal medicine and US pharmacopeia-registered food ingredient, is shown kidney protective by retrospective and preclinical data but with limited long-term prospective clinical evidence. This trial aimed to assess the effectiveness of astragalus on kidney function decline in macroalbuminuric diabetic CKD patients.

METHODS

This randomized, assessor-blind, standard care-controlled, multi-center clinical trial randomly assigned 118 patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 30-90 ml/min/1.73m2 and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) of 300-5000 mg/g from 7 public outpatient clinics and the community in Hong Kong between July 2018 and April 2022 to add-on oral astragalus granules (15 gs of raw herbs daily equivalent) or to continue standard care alone as control for 48 weeks. Primary outcomes were the slope of change of eGFR (used for sample size calculation) and UACR of the intention-to-treat population. Secondary outcomes included endpoint blood pressures, biochemistry, biomarkers, concomitant drug change and adverse events. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03535935) RESULTS: During the 48-week period, the estimated difference in the slope of eGFR decline was 4.6 ml/min/1.73m2 per year (95 %CI: 1.5 to 7.6, p = 0.003) slower with astragalus. For UACR, the estimated inter-group proportional difference in the slope of change was insignificant (1.14, 95 %CI: 0.85 to 1.52, p = 0.392). 117 adverse events from 31 astragalus-treated patients and 41 standard care-controlled patients were documented. The 48-week endpoint systolic blood pressure was 7.9 mmHg lower (95 %CI: -12.9 to -2.8, p = 0.003) in the astragalus-treated patients. 113 (96 %) and 107 (91 %) patients had post-randomization and endpoint primary outcome measures, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In patients with type 2 diabetes, stage 2 to 3 CKD and macroalbuminuria, add-on astragalus for 48 weeks further stabilized kidney function on top of standard care.

Predictors of developing renal dysfunction following diagnosis of transthyretin cardiac amyloidosis

BACKGROUND

In patients with transthyretin cardiac amyloidosis (ATTR-CA), renal dysfunction is a poor prognostic indicator. Limited data are available on variables that portend worsening renal function (wRF) among ATTR-CA patients.

OBJECTIVES

This study assesses which characteristics place patients at higher risk for the development of wRF (defined as a drop of ≥10% in glomerular filtration rate [GFR]) within the first year following diagnosis of ATTR-CA.

METHODS

We included patients with ATTR-CA (n = 134) evaluated between 2/2016 and 12/2022 and followed for up to 1 year at our amyloid clinic. Patients were stratified into two groups: a group with maintained renal function (mRF) and a group with wRF and compared using appropriate testing. Significant variables in the univariate analysis were included in the multivariable logistic regression model to determine characteristics associated with wRF.

RESULTS

Within a follow-up period of 326 ± 118 days, the median GFR% change measured -6% [-18%, +8]. About 41.8% (n = 56) had wRF, while the remainder had mRF. In addition, in patients with no prior history of chronic kidney disease (CKD), 25.5% developed de novo CKD. On multivariable logistic regression, only New York Heart Association (NYHA) class ≥III (odds ratio [OR]: 3.9, 95% confidence interval [CI]: [1.6-9.3]), history of ischemic heart disease (IHD) (OR: 0.3, 95% CI: [0.1-0.7]), and not receiving SGLT-2i (OR: 0.1, 95% CI: [0.02-0.5]) were significant predictors of wRF.

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrated that the development of de novo renal dysfunction or wRF is common following the diagnosis of ATTR-CA. Additionally, we identified worse NYHA class and no prior history of IHD as significant predictors associated with developing wRF, while receiving SGLT-2i therapy appeared to be protective in this population.

Is eGFR Slope a Novel Predictor of Chronic Complications of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Diabetic kidney disease affects approximately 40% of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and is associated with an increased risk of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and cardiovascular (CV) events, as well as increased mortality. Among the indicators of decline in renal function, the eGFR slope is acquiring an increasing clinical interest. The aim of this study was to evaluate, through a systematic review of the literature and meta-analysis of the collected data, the association between the decline of the eGFR slope, chronic complications, and mortality of T2DM patients, in order to understand whether or not the eGFR slope can be defined as a predictive indicator of complications in T2DM.

Methods

The review and meta-analysis were conducted according to PRISMA guidelines considering published studies on patients with T2DM. A scientific literature search was carried out on PubMed from January 2003 to April 2023 with subsequent selection of scientific papers according to the inclusion criteria.

Results

Fifteen studies were selected for meta-analysis. Risk analysis as hazard ratio (HR) indicated a significant association between all events considered (all-cause mortality, CV events, ESKD, and microvascular events) for patients with steeper eGFR slope decline than subjects with stable eGFR. Calculated HRs (with 95% CI) were as follows: for all-cause mortality, 2.31 (1.70-3.15); for CV events, 1.73 (1.43-2.08); for ESKD, 1.54 (1.45-1.64); and for microvascular events, 2.07 (1.57-2.73). Overall HR was 1.82 (1.72-1.92).

Conclusions

An association between rapid eGFR decline and chronic diabetes complications was demonstrated, suggesting that eGFR slope variability significantly impacts the course of T2DM and that eGFR slope should be considered as a predictor for chronic complications in patients with T2DM. According to the obtained results, the therapeutic management of the patient with diabetes should not focus exclusively on glycaemic control, and particular attention should be paid to preserve renal function.

Add-on Rehmannia-6-Based Chinese Medicine in Type 2 Diabetes and CKD: A Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is the leading cause of CKD and kidney failure. We assessed the real-world effectiveness of Rehmannia-6-based Chinese medicine treatment, the most used Chinese medicine formulation, on the change in eGFR and albuminuria in patients with diabetes and CKD with severely increased albuminuria.

METHODS

In this randomized, assessor-blind, standard care-controlled, parallel, multicenter trial, 148 adult patients from outpatient clinics with type 2 diabetes, an eGFR of 30-90 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 , and a urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) of 300-5000 mg/g were randomized 1:1 to a 48-week add-on protocolized Chinese medicine treatment program (using Rehmannia-6-based formulations in the granule form taken orally) or standard care alone. Primary outcomes were the slope of change in eGFR and UACR between baseline and end point (48 weeks after randomization) in the intention-to-treat population. Secondary outcomes included safety and the change in biochemistry, biomarkers, and concomitant drug use.

RESULTS

The mean age, eGFR, and UACR were 65 years, 56.7 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 , and 753 mg/g, respectively. Ninety-five percent ( n =141) of end point primary outcome measures were retrievable. For eGFR, the estimated slope of change was -2.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], -0.1 to -3.9) and -4.7 (95% CI, -2.9 to -6.5) ml/min per 1.73 m 2 in participants treated with add-on Chinese medicine or standard care alone, resulting in a 2.7 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 per year (95% CI, 0.1 to 5.3; P = 0.04) less decline with Chinese medicine. For UACR, the estimated proportion in the slope of change was 0.88 (95% CI, 0.75 to 1.02) and 0.99 (95% CI, 0.85 to 1.14) in participants treated with add-on Chinese medicine or standard care alone, respectively. The intergroup proportional difference (0.89, 11% slower increment in add-on Chinese medicine, 95% CI, 0.72 to 1.10; P = 0.28) did not reach statistical significance. Eighty-five adverse events were recorded from 50 participants (add-on Chinese medicine versus control: 22 [31%] versus 28 [36%]).

CONCLUSIONS

Rehmannia-6-based Chinese medicine treatment stabilized eGFR on top of standard care alone after 48 weeks in patients with type 2 diabetes, stage 2-3 CKD, and severely increased albuminuria.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY

Semi-individualized Chinese Medicine Treatment as an Adjuvant Management for Diabetic Nephropathy (SCHEMATIC), NCT02488252 .

Association of visit-to-visit glycemic variability with risk of cardiovascular diseases in high-risk Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes: A subanalysis of the EMPATHY trial

AIMS/INTRODUCTION

Long-term glycemic variability is important for predicting diabetic complications, but evaluation in a Japanese population is lacking. The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between visit-to-visit glycemic variability (VVV) and cardiovascular diseases (CV) in Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes, using the prospective cohort of the EMPATHY trial.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Among 4532 participants with at least three HbA1c measurements, VVV was defined using the coefficient of variation (CV-HbA1c). The outcomes were the composite cardiovascular endpoints, including cardiac, cerebral, renal, and vascular events. The odds ratios (ORs) for the development of outcomes were estimated by using logistic regression models.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 38 months, 190 subjects developed CV events. The risk of developing CV events increased significantly with increasing quintile of CV-HbA1c, after multivariable adjustment including the mean-HbA1c (OR for the fifth vs first quintile, 1.73; 95%CI, 1.03-2.91; P for trend test = 0.003). There was a stronger association between CV-HbA1c and CV events in patients with a mean-HbA1c of <7% compared with those with a mean-HbA1c of ≥7% (OR per 1 standard deviation, 1.51; 95%CI, 1.23-1.85 and 1.13; 95%CI, 0.98-1.29, respectively; P for interaction = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Increases of VVV were associated with the risk of CV events in Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes independent of the mean-HbA1c. The long-term variability of HbA1c as well as the mean HbA1c might be an important glycemic indicator in the management of patients with type 2 diabetes, especially in those with a mean-HbA1c of <7%.