Phylogenetic estimates of diversification rate are affected by molecular rate variation

Drivers of avian genomic change revealed by evolutionary rate decomposition

Modern birds have diversified into a striking array of forms, behaviours and ecological roles. Analyses of molecular evolutionary rates can reveal the links between genomic and phenotypic change1-4, but disentangling the drivers of rate variation at the whole-genome scale has been difficult. Using comprehensive estimates of traits and evolutionary rates across a family-level phylogeny of birds5,6, we find that genome-wide mutation rates across lineages are predominantly explained by clutch size and generation length, whereas rate variation across genes is driven by the content of guanine and cytosine. Here, to find the subsets of genes and lineages that dominate evolutionary rate variation in birds, we estimated the influence of individual lineages on decomposed axes of gene-specific evolutionary rates. We find that most of the rate variation occurs along recent branches of the tree, associated with present-day families of birds. Additional tests on axes of rate variation show rapid changes in microchromosomes immediately after the Cretaceous-Palaeogene transition. These apparent pulses of evolution are consistent with major changes in the genetic machineries for meiosis, heart performance, and RNA splicing, surveillance and translation, and correlate with the ecological diversity reflected in increased tarsus length. Collectively, our analyses paint a nuanced picture of avian evolution, revealing that the ancestors of the most diverse lineages of birds underwent major genomic changes related to mutation, gene usage and niche expansion in the early Palaeogene period.

Population Genomics of Adaptive Radiation

Adaptive radiations are rich laboratories for exploring, testing, and understanding key theories in evolution and ecology because they offer spectacular displays of speciation and ecological adaptation. Particular challenges to the study of adaptive radiation include high levels of species richness, rapid speciation, and gene flow between species. Over the last decade, high-throughput sequencing technologies and access to population genomic data have lessened these challenges by enabling the analysis of samples from many individual organisms at whole-genome scales. Here we review how population genomic data have facilitated our knowledge of adaptive radiation in five key areas: (1) phylogenetics, (2) hybridization, (3) timing and rates of diversification, (4) the genomic basis of trait evolution, and (5) the role of genome structure in divergence. We review current knowledge in each area, highlight outstanding questions, and focus on methods that facilitate detection of complex patterns in the divergence and demography of populations through time. It is clear that population genomic data are revolutionising the ability to reconstruct evolutionary history in rapidly diversifying clades. Additionally, studies are increasingly emphasising the central role of gene flow, re-use of standing genetic variation during adaptation, and structural genomic elements as facilitators of the speciation process in adaptive radiations. We highlight hybridization-and the hypothesized processes by which it shapes diversification-and questions seeking to bridge the divide between microevolutionary and macroevolutionary processes as rich areas for future study. Overall, access to population genomic data has facilitated an exciting era in adaptive radiation research, with implications for deeper understanding of fundamental evolutionary processes across the tree of life.

Combining Molecular, Macroevolutionary, and Macroecological Perspectives on the Generation of Diversity

Charles Darwin presented a unified process of diversification driven by the gradual accumulation of heritable variation. The growth in DNA databases and the increase in genomic sequencing, combined with advances in molecular phylogenetic analyses, gives us an opportunity to realize Darwin's vision, connecting the generation of variation to the diversification of lineages. The rate of molecular evolution is correlated with the rate of diversification across animals and plants, but the relationship between genome change and speciation is complex: Mutation rates evolve in response to life history and niche; substitution rates are influenced by mutation, selection, and population size; rates of acquisition of reproductive isolation vary between populations; and traits, niches, and distribution can influence diversification rates. The connection between mutation rate and diversification rate is one part of the complex and varied story of speciation, which has theoretical importance for understanding the generation of biodiversity and also practical impacts on the use of DNA to understand the dynamics of speciation over macroevolutionary timescales.

Illusion of flight? Absence, evidence and the age of winged insects

The earliest fossils of winged insects (Pterygota) are mid-Carboniferous (latest Mississippian, 328–324 Mya), but estimates of their age based on fossil-calibrated molecular phylogenetic studies place their origin at 440–370 Mya during the Silurian or Devonian. This discrepancy would require that winged insects evaded fossilization for at least the first ~50 Myr of their history. Here, we examine the plausibility of such a gap in the fossil record, and possible explanations for it, based on comparisons with the fossil records of other arthropod groups, the distribution of first occurrence dates of pterygote families, phylogenetically informed simulations of the fossilization of Palaeozoic insects, and re-analysis of data presented by Misof and colleagues using updated fossil calibrations under a variety of prior probability settings. We do not find support for the mechanisms previously suggested to account for such an extended gap in the pterygote fossil record, including sampling bias, preservation bias, and body size. We suggest that inference of an early origin of Pterygota long prior to their first appearance in the fossil record is probably an analytical artefact of taxon sampling and choice of fossil calibration points, possibly compounded by heterogeneity in rates of sequence evolution or speciation, including radiations or ‘bursts’ during their early history.

Investigating the reliability of molecular estimates of evolutionary time when substitution rates and speciation rates vary

Background

An accurate timescale of evolutionary history is essential to testing hypotheses about the influence of historical events and processes, and the timescale for evolution is increasingly derived from analysis of DNA sequences. But variation in the rate of molecular evolution complicates the inference of time from DNA. Evidence is growing for numerous factors, such as life history and habitat, that are linked both to the molecular processes of mutation and fixation and to rates of macroevolutionary diversification. However, the most widely used methods rely on idealised models of rate variation, such as the uncorrelated and autocorrelated clocks, and molecular dating methods are rarely tested against complex models of rate change. One relationship that is not accounted for in molecular dating is the potential for interaction between molecular substitution rates and speciation, a relationship that has been supported by empirical studies in a growing number of taxa. If these relationships are as widespread as current evidence suggests, they may have a significant influence on molecular dates.

Results

We simulate phylogenies and molecular sequences under three different realistic rate variation models—one in which speciation rates and substitution rates both vary but are unlinked, one in which they covary continuously and one punctuated model in which molecular change is concentrated in speciation events, using empirical case studies to parameterise realistic simulations. We test three commonly used “relaxed clock” molecular dating methods against these realistic simulations to explore the degree of error in molecular dates under each model. We find average divergence time inference errors ranging from 12% of node age for the unlinked model when reconstructed under an uncorrelated rate prior using BEAST 2, to up to 91% when sequences evolved under the punctuated model are reconstructed under an autocorrelated prior using PAML.

Conclusions

We demonstrate the potential for substantial errors in molecular dates when both speciation rates and substitution rates vary between lineages. This study highlights the need for tests of molecular dating methods against realistic models of rate variation generated from empirical parameters and known relationships.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12862-022-02015-8.

Diversification Rate is Associated with Rate of Molecular Evolution in Ray-Finned Fish (Actinopterygii)

Understanding the factors that drive diversification of taxa across the tree of life is a key focus of macroevolutionary research. While the effects of life history, ecology, climate and geography on diversity have been studied for many taxa, the relationship between molecular evolution and diversification has received less attention. However, correlations between rates of molecular evolution and diversification rate have been detected in a range of taxa, including reptiles, plants and birds. A correlation between rates of molecular evolution and diversification rate is a prediction of several evolutionary theories, including the evolutionary speed hypothesis which links variation in mutation rates to differences in speciation rates. If it is widespread, such correlations could also have significant practical impacts, if they are not adequately accounted for in phylogenetic inference of evolutionary rates and timescales. Ray-finned fish (Actinopterygii) offer a prime target to test for this relationship due to their extreme variation in clade size suggesting a wide range of diversification rates. We employ both a sister-pairs approach and a whole-tree approach to test for correlations between substitution rate and net diversification. We also collect life history and ecological trait data and account for potential confounding factors including body size, latitude, max depth and reef association. We find evidence to support a relationship between diversification and synonymous rates of nuclear evolution across two published backbone phylogenies, as well as weak evidence for a relationship between mitochondrial nonsynonymous rates and diversification at the genus level.

Macroevolutionary and macroecological approaches to understanding the evolution of stress tolerance in plants

Environmental stress response in plants has been studied using a wide range of approaches, from lab-based investigation of biochemistry and genetics, to glasshouse studies of physiology and growth rates, to field-based trials and ecological surveys. It is also possible to investigate the evolution of environmental stress responses using macroevolutionary and macroecological analyses, analysing data from many different species, providing a new perspective on the way that environmental stress shapes the evolution and distribution of biodiversity. "Macroevoeco" approaches can produce intriguing results and new ways of looking at old problems. In this review, we focus on studies using phylogenetic analysis to illuminate macroevolutionary patterns in the evolution of environmental stress tolerance in plants. We follow a particular thread from our own research-evolution of salt tolerance-as a case study that illustrates a macroevolutionary way of thinking that opens up a range of broader questions on the evolution of environmental stress tolerances. We consider some potential future applications of macroevolutionary and macroecological analyses to understanding how diverse groups of plants evolve in response to environmental stress, which may allow better prediction of current stress tolerance and a way of predicting the capacity of species to adapt to changing environmental stresses over time.

Heterogeneity in the rate of molecular sequence evolution substantially impacts the accuracy of detecting shifts in diversification rates

As species richness varies along the tree of life, there is a great interest in identifying factors that affect the rates by which lineages speciate or go extinct. To this end, theoretical biologists have developed a suite of phylogenetic comparative methods that aim to identify where shifts in diversification rates had occurred along a phylogeny and whether they are associated with some traits. Using these methods, numerous studies have predicted that speciation and extinction rates vary across the tree of life. In this study, we show that asymmetric rates of sequence evolution lead to systematic biases in the inferred phylogeny, which in turn lead to erroneous inferences regarding lineage diversification patterns. The results demonstrate that as the asymmetry in sequence evolution rates increases, so does the tendency to select more complicated models that include the possibility of diversification rate shifts. These results thus suggest that any inference regarding shifts in diversification pattern should be treated with great caution, at least until any biases regarding the molecular substitution rate have been ruled out.

The effect of alignment uncertainty, substitution models and priors in building and dating the mammal tree of life

BACKGROUND

The flood of genomic data to help build and date the tree of life requires automation at several critical junctures, most importantly during sequence assembly and alignment. It is widely appreciated that automated alignment protocols can yield inaccuracies, but the relative impact of various sources error on phylogenomic analysis is not yet known. This study employs an updated mammal data set of 5162 coding loci sampled from 90 species to evaluate the effects of alignment uncertainty, substitution models, and fossil priors on gene tree, species tree, and divergence time estimation. Additionally, a novel coalescent likelihood ratio test is introduced for comparing competing species trees against a given set of gene trees.

RESULTS

The aligned DNA sequences of 5162 loci from 90 species were trimmed and filtered using trimAL and two filtering protocols. The final dataset contains 4 sets of alignments - before trimming, after trimming, filtered by a recently proposed pipeline, and further filtered by comparing ML gene trees for each locus with the concatenation tree. Our analyses suggest that the average discordance among the coalescent trees is significantly smaller than that among the concatenation trees estimated from the 4 sets of alignments or with different substitution models. There is no significant difference among the divergence times estimated with different substitution models. However, the divergence dates estimated from the alignments after trimming are more recent than those estimated from the alignments before trimming.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results highlight that alignment uncertainty of the updated mammal data set and the choice of substitution models have little impact on tree topologies yielded by coalescent methods for species tree estimation, whereas they are more influential on the trees made by concatenation. Given the choice of calibration scheme and clock models, divergence time estimates are robust to the choice of substitution models, but removing alignments deemed problematic by trimming algorithms can lead to more recent dates. Although the fossil prior is important in divergence time estimation, Bayesian estimates of divergence times in this data set are driven primarily by the sequence data.

Earth history and the passerine superradiation

Avian diversification has been influenced by global climate change, plate tectonic movements, and mass extinction events. However, the impact of these factors on the diversification of the hyperdiverse perching birds (passerines) is unclear because family level relationships are unresolved and the timing of splitting events among lineages is uncertain. We analyzed DNA data from 4,060 nuclear loci and 137 passerine families using concatenation and coalescent approaches to infer a comprehensive phylogenetic hypothesis that clarifies relationships among all passerine families. Then, we calibrated this phylogeny using 13 fossils to examine the effects of different events in Earth history on the timing and rate of passerine diversification. Our analyses reconcile passerine diversification with the fossil and geological records; suggest that passerines originated on the Australian landmass ∼47 Ma; and show that subsequent dispersal and diversification of passerines was affected by a number of climatological and geological events, such as Oligocene glaciation and inundation of the New Zealand landmass. Although passerine diversification rates fluctuated throughout the Cenozoic, we find no link between the rate of passerine diversification and Cenozoic global temperature, and our analyses show that the increases in passerine diversification rate we observe are disconnected from the colonization of new continents. Taken together, these results suggest more complex mechanisms than temperature change or ecological opportunity have controlled macroscale patterns of passerine speciation.

Six Impossible Things before Breakfast: Assumptions, Models, and Belief in Molecular Dating

Confidence in molecular dating analyses has grown with the increasing sophistication of the methods. Some problematic cases where molecular dates disagreed with paleontological estimates appear to have been resolved with a growing agreement between molecules and fossils. But we cannot relax just yet. The growing analytical sophistication of many molecular dating methods relies on an increasingly large number of assumptions about evolutionary history and processes. Many of these assumptions are based on statistical tractability rather than being informed by improved understanding of molecular evolution, yet changing the assumptions can influence molecular dates. How can we tell if the answers we get are driven more by the assumptions we make than by the molecular data being analyzed?

The choice of tree prior and molecular clock does not substantially affect phylogenetic inferences of diversification rates

Comparative methods allow researchers to make inferences about evolutionary processes and patterns from phylogenetic trees. In Bayesian phylogenetics, estimating a phylogeny requires specifying priors on parameters characterizing the branching process and rates of substitution among lineages, in addition to others. Accordingly, characterizing the effect of prior selection on phylogenies is an active area of research. The choice of priors may systematically bias phylogenetic reconstruction and, subsequently, affect conclusions drawn from the resulting phylogeny. Here, we focus on the impact of priors in Bayesian phylogenetic inference and evaluate how they affect the estimation of parameters in macroevolutionary models of lineage diversification. Specifically, we simulate trees under combinations of tree priors and molecular clocks, simulate sequence data, estimate trees, and estimate diversification parameters (e.g., speciation and extinction rates) from these trees. When substitution rate heterogeneity is large, diversification rate estimates deviate substantially from those estimated under the simulation conditions when not captured by an appropriate choice of relaxed molecular clock. However, in general, we find that the choice of tree prior and molecular clock has relatively little impact on the estimation of diversification rates insofar as the sequence data are sufficiently informative and substitution rate heterogeneity among lineages is low-to-moderate.

Dating the Cryptococcus gattii Dispersal to the North American Pacific Northwest

The recent emergence of the pathogenic fungus Cryptococcus gattii in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) resulted in numerous investigations into the epidemiological and enzootic impacts, as well as multiple genomic explorations of the three primary molecular subtypes of the fungus that were discovered. These studies lead to the general conclusion that the subtypes identified likely emerged out of Brazil. Here, we conducted genomic dating analyses to determine the ages of the various lineages seen in the PNW and propose hypothetical causes for the dispersal events. Bayesian evolutionary analysis strongly suggests that these independent fungal populations in the PNW are all 60 to 100 years old, providing a timing that is subsequent to the opening of the Panama Canal, which allowed for more direct shipping between Brazil and the western North American coastline, a possible driving event for these fungal translocation events.

The emergence of Cryptococcus gattii, previously regarded as a predominantly tropical pathogen, in the temperate climate of the North American Pacific Northwest (PNW) in 1999 prompted several questions. The most prevalent among these was the timing of the introduction of this pathogen to this novel environment. Here, we infer tip-dated timing estimates for the three clonal C. gattii populations observed in the PNW, VGIIa, VGIIb, and VGIIc, based on whole-genome sequencing of 134 C. gattii isolates and using Bayesian evolutionary analysis by sampling trees (BEAST). We estimated the nucleotide substitution rate for each lineage (1.59 × 10⁻⁸, 1.59 × 10⁻⁸, and 2.70 × 10⁻⁸, respectively) to be an order of magnitude higher than common neutral fungal mutation rates (2.0 × 10⁻⁹), indicating a microevolutionary rate (e.g., successive clonal generations in a laboratory) in comparison to a species’ slower, macroevolutionary rate (e.g., when using fossil records). The clonal nature of the PNW C. gattii emergence over a narrow number of years would therefore possibly explain our higher mutation rates. Our results suggest that the mean time to most recent common ancestor for all three sublineages occurred within the last 60 to 100 years. While the cause of C. gattii dispersal to the PNW is still unclear, our research estimates that the arrival is neither ancient nor very recent (i.e., <25 years ago), making a strong case for an anthropogenic introduction.

IMPORTANCE The recent emergence of the pathogenic fungus Cryptococcus gattii in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) resulted in numerous investigations into the epidemiological and enzootic impacts, as well as multiple genomic explorations of the three primary molecular subtypes of the fungus that were discovered. These studies lead to the general conclusion that the subtypes identified likely emerged out of Brazil. Here, we conducted genomic dating analyses to determine the ages of the various lineages seen in the PNW and propose hypothetical causes for the dispersal events. Bayesian evolutionary analysis strongly suggests that these independent fungal populations in the PNW are all 60 to 100 years old, providing a timing that is subsequent to the opening of the Panama Canal, which allowed for more direct shipping between Brazil and the western North American coastline, a possible driving event for these fungal translocation events.