Fluctuating selection driven by global and local climatic conditions leads to stasis in breeding time in a migratory bird

Crosswinds During Spring Migration Carryover and Influence the Time Interval Between Arrival and Laying in a Neotropical Migrant

Events on the non-breeding grounds and on migration can influence the timing of reproduction and the productivity of migratory songbirds. We show, using data from a 12-year study in Revelstoke, BC, Canada, that the onset of breeding in yellow warblers (Setophaga petechia) is linked to weather conditions on migration, specifically the speed of crosswinds experienced over the western flyway during a 2-week period from May 18 to 31. During 2015-2017, we investigated whether this carryover effect was due to crosswind effects on the timing of arrival, the reproductive state and mass of females on arrival, or a combination of other effects that delayed egg laying. In these years, female arrival dates varied with age but were independent of year, growing degree days, or crosswinds on migration. Though crosswinds experienced by females during the 14-day period before their arrival on the breeding ground had no significant effect on their reproductive state (plasma triglyceride levels) or mass (controlling for tarsus length) on arrival, crosswinds had an effect on the time interval between arrival and egg laying. The time interval between arrival and egg laying was also shorter if females arrived with elevated plasma triglyceride levels and longer if females arrived early in the season. Carryover effects from crosswinds experienced during migration on the timing of breeding and reproductive success of yellow warblers are likely to arise due to their effect on arrival date and how rapidly birds can transition from a migratory to a reproductive physiological state. Both wind-speed experienced on migration (14 days before arrival) and reproductive state on arrival (plasma triglyceride concentration) independently influenced the time interval between arrival and egg laying. Crosswinds that delay breeding have a significant effect on reproductive success; female yellow warblers that initiate reproduction late decrease both their chance to raise at least one nestling and the number of nestlings fledged.

Environmental conditions influence host-parasite interactions and host fitness in a migratory passerine

The study of host-parasite co-evolution is a central topic in evolutionary ecology. However, research is still fragmented and the extent to which parasites influence host life history is debated. One reason for this incomplete picture is the frequent omission of environmental conditions in studies analyzing host-parasite dynamics, which may influence the exposure to or effects of parasitism. To contribute to elucidating the largely unresolved question of how environmental conditions are related to the prevalence and intensity of infestation and their impact on hosts, we took advantage of 25 years of monitoring of a breeding population of pied flycatchers, Ficedula hypoleuca, in a Mediterranean area of central Spain. We investigated the influence of temperature and precipitation during the nestling stage at a local scale on the intensity of blowfly (Protocalliphora azurea) parasitism during the nestling stage. In addition, we explored the mediating effect of extrinsic and intrinsic factors and blowfly parasitism on breeding success (production of fledglings) and offspring quality (nestling mass on day 13). The prevalence and intensity of blowfly parasitism were associated with different intrinsic (host breeding date, brood size) and extrinsic (breeding habitat, mean temperature) factors. Specifically, higher average temperatures during the nestling phase were associated with lower intensities of parasitism, which may be explained by changes in blowflies' activity or larval developmental success. In contrast, no relationship was found between the prevalence of parasitism and any of the environmental variables evaluated. Hosts that experienced high parasitism intensities in their broods produced more fledglings as temperature increased, suggesting that physiological responses to severe parasitism during nestling development might be enhanced in warmer conditions. The weight of fledglings was, however, unrelated to the interactive effect of parasitism intensity and environmental conditions. Overall, our results highlight the temperature dependence of parasite-host interactions and the importance of considering multiple fitness indicators and climate-mediated effects to understand their complex implications for avian fitness and population dynamics.

Critical reproductive behaviors in Scaled Quail and Northern Bobwhite are affected by thermal variability and mean temperature

Animals can respond differently to shifting thermal variability versus thermal averages, both of which are changing due to climate warming. How these thermal variables affect parental care behaviors can reveal the ability of parents to modify their behaviors to meet the competing demands of their offspring's thermal needs and self-maintenance, which becomes critical in suboptimal thermal conditions. Further, the time frame used to examine the interplay between temperature and behavioral shifts (e.g., seasonal patterns in care vs. drivers of individual care decisions) can provide different information about the plasticity of parental care behavior. We investigated the relationship between thermal means, thermal variability, and incubation behaviors across multiple timescales in Scaled Quail and Northern Bobwhite. Both species decreased off-bout length during periods of high thermal variability, a novel finding among studies of avian parental behavior. Further relationships between thermal endpoints (mean vs. variation) and behavior differed depending on the temporal scale. For instance, total daily time spent off the nest was not influenced by daily average temperature, yet individual off-bout duration increased with increasing average temperature in the 2 h prior to the off-bout. These results provide evidence that thermal-behavioral relationships differ across scales and likely represent a bird's ability to modify their incubation strategy to rapidly respond to the immediate thermal environment (altering individual off-bout length based on temperature) to meet self-maintenance needs while resulting in a similar outcome for their nest (total daily off-bout time). However, longer off-bout durations during high temperature events can come with reproductive costs, sometimes resulting in acute offspring mortality when eggs or chicks experience lethal temperatures.

The magnitude of selection on growth varies among years and increases under warming conditions in a subarctic seabird

Because of ongoing rapid climate change, many ecosystems are becoming both warmer and more variable, and these changes are likely to alter the magnitude and variability of natural selection acting on wild populations. Critically, changes and fluctuations in selection can impact both population demography and evolutionary change. Therefore, predicting the impacts of climate change depends on understanding the magnitude and variation in selection on traits across different life stages and environments. Long-term experiments in wild settings are a great opportunity to determine the impact of environmental conditions on selection. Here we examined variability in the strength of selection on size traits of nestling black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) in a 25-year study including a food supplementation experiment on Middleton Island in the Gulf of Alaska. Using mixed effect models, we examined the annual variability of stage-specific and resource-specific selection gradients across 25 years. We found that (a) larger and heavier hatchlings were the most likely to survive during early ontogeny, (b) non-food supplemented younger nestlings in a brood experienced the strongest selection, and (c) warmer conditions increased the magnitude of selection on nestling mass and affected non-food supplemented and second-hatched nestlings the most. Our results suggested that variable resource dynamics likely caused some of the changes in selection from year to year and that warming conditions increased the strength of selection on subarctic seabird growth. However, our experimental manipulation revealed that local environmental heterogeneity could buffer the selection expected from broader climatic changes. Consequently, understanding the interactive effects of local conditions and general changes in climate seems likely to improve our ability to predict future selection gradients.

Phenotypic selection on an ornamental trait is not modulated by breeding density in a pied flycatcher population

Most studies of phenotypic selection in the wild have focussed on morphological and life‐history traits and looked at abiotic (climatic) variation as the main driver of selection. Consequently, our knowledge of the effects of biotic environmental variation on phenotypic selection on sexual traits is scarce. Population density can be considered a proxy for the intensity of intrasexual and intersexual competition and could therefore be a key factor influencing the covariation between individual fitness and the expression of sexual traits. Here, we used an individual‐based data set from a population of pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) monitored over 24 years to analyze the effect of breeding density on phenotypic selection on dorsal plumage colouration, a heritable and sexually selected ornament in males of this species. Using the number of recruits as a fitness proxy, our results showed overall stabilizing selection on male dorsal colouration, with intermediate phenotypes being favoured over extremely dark and dull individuals. However, our results did not support the hypothesis that breeding density mediates phenotypic selection on this sexual trait. We discuss the possible role of other biotic factors influencing selection on ornamental plumage.