Phenotypic lags influence rapid evolution throughout a drought cycle

Climate anomalies are increasing and posing strong selection, which can lead to rapid evolution. This is occurring on a backdrop of interannual variability that might weaken or even reverse selection. However, the effect of interannual climatic variability on rapid evolution is rarely considered. We study the climatic differences that contribute to rapid evolution throughout a seven-year period encompassing a severe drought across 12 populations of Mimulus cardinalis (scarlet monkeyflower). Plants were grown in a common greenhouse environment under wet and dry treatments, where specific leaf area and date of flowering were measured. We examine the association between trait values and different climate metrics at different time-periods, including the collection year, prior years, and cumulative metrics across sequential years. Of the climatic variables we assessed, we find that anomalies in mean annual precipitation best describe trait differences over our study period. Past climates, of one- to two years prior, are often related to trait values in a conflicting direction to collection-year climate. Uncovering these complex climatic impacts on evolution is critical to better predict and interpret the impacts of climate change.

Within- and transgenerational stress legacy effects of ocean acidification on red abalone (Haliotis rufescens) growth and survival

Understanding the mechanisms by which individual organisms respond and populations adapt to global climate change is a critical challenge. The role of plasticity and acclimation, within and across generations, may be essential given the pace of change. We investigated plasticity across generations and life stages in response to ocean acidification (OA), which poses a growing threat to both wild populations and the sustainable aquaculture of shellfish. Most studies of OA on shellfish focus on acute effects, and less is known regarding the longer term carryover effects that may manifest within or across generations. We assessed these longer term effects in red abalone (Haliotis rufescens) using a multi-generational split-brood experiment. We spawned adults raised in ambient conditions to create offspring that we then exposed to high pCO2 (1180 μatm; simulating OA) or low pCO2 (450 μatm; control or ambient conditions) during the first 3 months of life. We then allowed these animals to reach maturity in ambient common garden conditions for 4 years before returning the adults into high or low pCO2 treatments for 11 months and measuring growth and reproductive potential. Early-life exposure to OA in the F1 generation decreased adult growth rate even after 5 years especially when abalone were re-exposed to OA as adults. Adult but not early-life exposure to OA negatively impacted fecundity. We then exposed the F2 offspring to high or low pCO2 treatments for the first 3 months of life in a fully factorial, split-brood design. We found negative transgenerational effects of parental OA exposure on survival and growth of F2 offspring, in addition to significant direct effects of OA on F2 survival. These results show that the negative impacts of OA can last within and across generations, but that buffering against OA conditions at critical life-history windows can mitigate these effects.

Exposure to ultraviolet-B radiation increases the susceptibility of mosquitoes to infection with dengue virus

By 2100, greenhouse gases are predicted to reduce ozone and cloud cover over the tropics causing increased exposure of organisms to harmful ultraviolet-B radiation (UVBR). UVBR damages DNA and is an important modulator of immune function and disease susceptibility in humans and other vertebrates. The effect of UVBR on invertebrate immune function is largely unknown, but UVBR together with ultraviolet-A radiation impairs an insect immune response that utilizes melanin, a pigment that also protects against UVBR-induced DNA damage. If UVBR weakens insect immunity, then it may make insect disease vectors more susceptible to infection with pathogens of socioeconomic and public health importance. In the tropics, where UVBR is predicted to increase, the mosquito-borne dengue virus (DENV), is prevalent and a growing threat to humans. We therefore examined the effect of UVBR on the mosquito Aedes aegypti, the primary vector for DENV, to better understand the potential implications of increased tropical UVBR for mosquito-borne disease risk. We found that exposure to a UVBR dose that caused significant larval mortality approximately doubled the probability that surviving females would become infected with DENV, despite this UVBR dose having no effect on the expression of an effector gene involved in antiviral immunity. We also found that females exposed to a lower UVBR dose were more likely to have low fecundity even though this UVBR dose had no effect on larval size or activity, pupal cuticular melanin content, or adult mass, metabolic rate, or flight capacity. We conclude that future increases in tropical UVBR associated with anthropogenic global change may have the benefit of reducing mosquito-borne disease risk for humans by reducing mosquito fitness, but this benefit may be eroded if it also makes mosquitoes more likely to be infected with deadly pathogens.

The challenges of selective fertility and carryover effects in within-sibship analyses: the effect of assisted reproductive technology on perinatal mortality as an example

BACKGROUND

Within-sibship analyses show lower perinatal mortality after assisted reproductive technology (ART) compared with natural conception (NC), a finding that appears biologically unlikely. We investigated whether this may be attributed to bias from selective fertility and carryover effects.

METHODS

Using data from national registries in Denmark (1994-2014), Finland (1990-2014) and Norway and Sweden (1988-2015), we studied 5 722 826 singleton pregnancies, including 119 900 ART-conceived and 37 590 exposure-discordant sibships. Perinatal mortality at the population level and within sibships was compared using multilevel logistic regression with random and fixed intercepts, respectively. We estimated selective fertility as the proportion of primiparous women with and without perinatal loss who had a second delivery, and carryover effects through bidirectional and crosswise associations.

RESULTS

Population analysis showed higher perinatal mortality among ART conception compared with NC (odds ratio 1.21, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.30), whereas within-sibship analysis showed the opposite (OR 0.36, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.43). Primiparous women with perinatal loss were more likely to give birth again (selective fertility) and to use ART in this subsequent pregnancy (carryover effects), resulting in strong selection of double-discordant sibships with death of the naturally conceived and survival of the ART-conceived sibling. After controlling for conception method and outcome in the first pregnancy, ART was not consistently associated with perinatal mortality in the second pregnancy.

CONCLUSIONS

Whereas population estimates may be biased by residual confounding, within-sibship estimates were biased by selective fertility and carryover effects. It remains unclear whether ART conception contributes to perinatal mortality.

Vulnerability to the Effects of Conflicting Health Information: Testing the Moderating Roles of Trust in News Media and Research Literacy

BACKGROUND

Exposure to conflicting health information can produce negative affective and cognitive responses, including confusion and backlash, and the effects of this exposure can even "carry over" and reduce people's receptivity to subsequent messages about health behaviors for which there is scientific consensus. What is not known is whether certain population subgroups are more vulnerable to such carryover effects.

AIMS

This study investigates whether carryover effects of exposure to conflicting information are moderated by two factors, trust in news media and research literacy, testing the hypothesis that lower trust and higher literacy could protect against such effects.

METHOD

The analysis draws on data from a longitudinal population-based experiment (N = 2,716), in which participants were randomly assigned to view health news stories and social media posts that either did or did not feature conflicting information, and subsequently exposed to ads from existing health campaigns about behaviors for which there is scientific consensus. Structural equation modeling was used to test study hypotheses.

RESULTS

Neither lower trust in news media nor higher research literacy protected against carryover effects, as effects were observed across levels of both trust and literacy. Although level of research literacy did not affect whether carryover effects were observed, it did shape how those effects emerged.

CONCLUSION

The public, regardless of their level of trust in news media or research literacy, is vulnerable to the downstream effects of exposure to conflicting health information. Targeted health communication interventions are needed to improve messaging about evolving science and, in turn, increase receptivity to public health recommendations.

Larval development and poor trophic resource availability: Local adaptations and plasticity in a widespread amphibian species

Theory predicts that, in organisms with complex life cycles, if the earlier-stage limiting factor induces weak later-stage phenotypes, the development of the later-stage trait should evolve to reduce carry-over effects. Local adaptations could thus favour decoupling of later stages. However, decoupling is not always possible. In this study, we used a widespread amphibian, the European fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra), to assess the role of local adaptations to environmental stressful conditions experienced at the larval stage. We exposed 150 larvae from different altitudes to two conditions: rich food and poor food condition. Conditions in early life stages can affect an individual's traits, either as a direct effect or mediated through outcomes in successive life stages. To distinguish between effects of rearing conditions and local adaptation, we searched for a causal model. The causal model detected effects of both food treatment and population origin (altitude) on all life stages. Larvae reared under rich food condition metamorphosed earlier, had higher growth rates and reached smaller size at metamorphosis. Significant differences occurred between larvae of different origin: low-altitude individuals performed poorly under the poor food treatment. Moreover, larvae from higher altitudes were slower with rich food and faster with poor food compared to those from lower altitudes. Our results underline that environmental conditions and local adaptation can interplay in determining the plasticity of larval stages, still adaptations can maximize the growth efficiency of early stages in oligotrophic environments, leading to divergent pathways across populations and environmental conditions.

Annual Schedule Adjustment by a Long-Distance Migratory Bird

AbstractMatching the timing of annual cycle events with the required resources can have crucial consequences for individual fitness. But as the annual cycle is composed of sequential events, a delay at any point may be carried over to the subsequent stage (or more, in a domino effect) and negatively influence individual performance. To investigate how migratory animals navigate their annual schedule and where and when it may be adjusted, we used full annual cycle data on 38 Icelandic whimbrels (Numenius phaeopus islandicus) tracked over 7 years-a subspecies that typically performs long-distance migrations to West Africa. We found that individuals apparently used the wintering sites to compensate for delays that mostly arose as a result of previous successful breeding, and a domino effect was observed from spring departure to laying date, with the potential to affect breeding output. However, the total time saved during all stationary periods is apparently enough to avoid interannual effects between breeding seasons. These findings highlight the importance of preserving good-quality nonbreeding sites in which individuals may adjust annual schedules and avoid potentially adverse effects of arriving late at the breeding grounds.

Analysis of N-of-1 trials using Bayesian distributed lag model with autocorrelated errors

An N-of-1 trial is a multi-period crossover trial performed in a single individual, with a primary goal to estimate treatment effect on the individual instead of population-level mean responses. As in a conventional crossover trial, it is critical to understand carryover effects of the treatment in an N-of-1 trial, especially when no washout periods between treatment periods are instituted to reduce trial duration. To deal with this issue in situations where a high volume of measurements are made during the study, we introduce a novel Bayesian distributed lag model that facilitates the estimation of carryover effects, while accounting for temporal correlations using an autoregressive model. Specifically, we propose a prior variance-covariance structure on the lag coefficients to address collinearity caused by the fact that treatment exposures are typically identical on successive days. A connection between the proposed Bayesian model and penalized regression is noted. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed model substantially reduces the root mean squared error in the estimation of carryover effects and immediate effects when compared to other existing methods, while being comparable in the estimation of the total effects. We also apply the proposed method to assess the extent of carryover effects of light therapies in relieving depressive symptoms in cancer survivors.

Can predators stabilize host–parasite interactions? Changes in aquatic predator identity alter amphibian responses and parasite abundance across life stages

The role of parasites can change depending on the food web community. Predators, for instance, can amplify or dilute parasite effects on their hosts. Likewise, exposure to parasites or predators at one life stage can have long‐term consequences on individual performance and survival, which can influence population and disease dynamics. To understand how predators affect amphibian parasite infections across life stages, we manipulated exposure of northern leopard frog (Rana pipiens) tadpoles to three predators (crayfish [Orconectes rusticus], bluegill [Lepomis macrochirus], or mosquitofish [Gambusia affinis]) and to trematode parasites (Echinostoma spp.) in mesocosms and followed juveniles in outdoor terrestrial enclosures through overwintering. Parasites and predators both had strong impacts on metamorphosis with bluegill and parasites individually reducing metamorph survival. However, when fish were present, the negative effects of parasites on survival was not apparent, likely because fish altered community composition via increased algal food resources. Bluegill also reduced snail abundance, which could explain reduced abundance of parasites in surviving metamorphs. Bluegill and parasite exposure increased mass at metamorphosis, which increased metamorph jumping, swimming, and feeding performance, suggesting that larger frogs would experience better terrestrial survival. Effects on size at metamorphosis persisted in the terrestrial environment but did not influence overwintering survival. Based on our results, we constructed stage‐structured population models to evaluate the lethal and sublethal effects of bluegill and parasites on population dynamics. Our models suggested that positive effects of bluegill and parasites on body size may have greater effects on population growth than the direct effects of mortality. This study illustrates how predators can alter the outcome of parasitic infections and highlights the need for long‐term experiments that investigate how changes in host–parasite systems alter population dynamics. We show that some predators reduce parasite effects and have indirect positive effects on surviving individuals potentially increasing host population persistence.

Fungicides have transgenerational effects on Rhopalosiphum padi but not their endosymbionts

BACKGROUND

While several agricultural fungicides are known to directly affect invertebrate pests, including aphids, the mechanisms involved are often unknown. One hypothesis is that fungicides with antibacterial activity suppress bacterial endosymbionts present in aphids which are important for aphid survival. Endosymbiont-related effects are expected to be transgenerational, given that these bacteria are maternally inherited. Here, we test for these associations using three fungicides (chlorothalonil, pyraclostrobin and trifloxystrobin) against the bird cherry-oat aphid, Rhopalosiphum padi, using a microinjected strain that carried both the primary endosymbiont Buchnera and the secondary endosymbiont Rickettsiella.

RESULTS

We show that the fungicide chlorothalonil did not cause an immediate effect on aphid survival, whereas both strobilurin fungicides (pyraclostrobin and trifloxystrobin) decreased survival after 48 h exposure. However, chlorothalonil substantially reduced the lifespan and fecundity of the F1 generation. Trifloxystrobin also reduced the lifespan and fecundity of F1 offspring, however, pyraclostrobin did not affect these traits. None of the fungicides consistently altered the density of Buchnera or Rickettsiella in whole aphids.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest fungicides have sublethal impacts on R. padi that are not fully realized until the generation after exposure, and these sublethal impacts are not associated with the density of endosymbionts harbored by R. padi. However, we cannot rule out other effects of fungicides on endosymbionts that might influence fitness, like changes in their tissue distribution. We discuss these results within the context of fungicidal effects on aphid suppression across generations and point to potential field applications. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

Live-fast-die-young: Carryover effects of heatwave-exposed adult urchins on the development of the next generation

With rising ocean temperatures, extreme weather events such as marine heatwaves (MHWs) are increasing in frequency and duration, pushing marine life beyond their physiological limits. The potential to respond to extreme conditions through physiological acclimatization, and pass on resistance to the next generation, fundamentally depends on the capacity of an organism to cope within their thermal tolerance limits. To elucidate whether heat conditioning of parents could benefit offspring development, we exposed adult sea urchins (Heliocidaris erythrogramma) to ambient summer (23°C), moderate (25°C) or strong (26°C) MHW conditions for 10 days. Offspring were then reared at constant temperature along a thermal gradient (22-28°C) and development was tracked to the 14-day juvenile stage. Progeny from the MHW-conditioned adults developed through to metamorphosis faster than those of ambient conditioned parents, with most individuals from the moderate and strong heatwaves developing to the larval stage across all temperatures. In contrast, the majority of offspring from the control summer temperature died before metamorphosis at temperatures above 25°C (moderate MHW). Juveniles produced from the strong MHW-conditioned adults were also larger across all temperatures, with the largest juveniles in the 26°C treatment. In contrast, the smallest juveniles were from control (current-day summer) parents (and reared at 22 and 25°C). Surprisingly, initial survival was higher in the progeny of MHW exposed parents, even at temperatures hotter than predicted MHWs (28°C). Importantly, however, there was substantial mortality of juveniles from the strong MHW parents by day 14. Therefore, while carryover effects of parental conditioning to MHWs resulted in faster growing, larger progeny, this benefit will only persist beyond the more sensitive juvenile stage and enhance survival if conditions return promptly to normal seasonal temperatures within current thermal tolerance limits.

New Insights into Microbial Degradation of Cyanobacterial Organic Matter Using a Fractionation Procedure

Cyanobacterial blooms caused by phytoplankton Microcystis have occurred successively since 1980 in Lake Taihu, China, which has led to difficulty collecting clean drinking water. The effects of cyanobacterial scum-derived dissolved organic matter (DOM) on microbial population variations and of algal-derived filtrate and algal residual exudative organic matter caused by the fraction procedure on nutrient mineralization are unclear. This study revealed the microbial-regulated transformation of DOM from a high-molecular-weight labile to a low-molecular-weight recalcitrant, which was characterized by three obvious stages. The bioavailability of DOM derived from cyanobacterial scum by lake microbes was investigated during 80-d dark degradation. Carbon substrates provided distinct growth strategy links to the free-living bacteria abundance variation, and this process was coupled with the regeneration of different forms of inorganic nutrients. The carryover effects of Microcystis cyanobacteria blooms can exist for a long time. We also found the transformation of different biological availability of DOM derived from two different cyanobacterial DOM fractions, which all coupled with the regeneration of different forms of inorganic nutrients. Our study provides new insights into the microbial degradation of cyanobacterial organic matter using a fractionation procedure, which suggests that the exudate and lysate from degradation products of cyanobacteria biomass have heterogeneous impacts on DOM cycling in aquatic environments.

Past insecticide exposure reduces bee reproduction and population growth rate

Pesticides are linked to global insect declines, with impacts on biodiversity and essential ecosystem services. In addition to well-documented direct impacts of pesticides at the current stage or time, potential delayed "carryover" effects from past exposure at a different life stage may augment impacts on individuals and populations. We investigated the effects of current exposure and the carryover effects of past insecticide exposure on the individual vital rates and population growth of the solitary bee, Osmia lignaria Bees in flight cages freely foraged on wildflowers, some treated with the common insecticide, imidacloprid, in a fully crossed design over 2 y, with insecticide exposure or no exposure in each year. Insecticide exposure directly to foraging adults and via carryover effects from past exposure reduced reproduction. Repeated exposure across 2 y additively impaired individual performance, leading to a nearly fourfold reduction in bee population growth. Exposure to even a single insecticide application can have persistent effects on vital rates and can reduce population growth for multiple generations. Carryover effects had profound implications for population persistence and must be considered in risk assessment, conservation, and management decisions for pollinators to mitigate the effects of insecticide exposure.

Thermal Performance Curves Are Shaped by Prior Thermal Environment in Early Life

Understanding links between thermal performance and environmental variation is necessary to predict organismal responses to climate change, and remains an ongoing challenge for ectotherms with complex life cycles. Distinct life stages can differ in thermal sensitivity, experience different environmental conditions as development unfolds, and, because stages are by nature interdependent, environmental effects can carry over from one stage to affect performance at others. Thermal performance may therefore respond to carryover effects of prior thermal environments, yet detailed insights into the nature, strength, and direction of those responses are still lacking. Here, in an aquatic ectotherm whose early planktonic stages (gametes, embryos, and larvae) govern adult abundances and dynamics, we explore the effects of prior thermal environments at fertilization and embryogenesis on thermal performance curves at the end of planktonic development. We factorially manipulate temperatures at fertilization and embryogenesis, then, for each combination of prior temperatures, measure thermal performance curves for survival of planktonic development (end of the larval stage) throughout the performance range. By combining generalized linear mixed modeling with parametric bootstrapping, we formally estimate and compare curve descriptors (thermal optima, limits, and breadth) among prior environments, and reveal carryover effects of temperature at embryogenesis, but not fertilization, on thermal optima at completion of development. Specifically, thermal optima shifted to track temperature during embryogenesis, while thermal limits and breadth remained unchanged. Our results argue that key aspects of thermal performance are shaped by prior thermal environment in early life, warranting further investigation of the possible mechanisms underpinning that response, and closer consideration of thermal carryover effects when predicting organismal responses to climate change.

The Marine Gastropod Crepidula fornicata Remains Resilient to Ocean Acidification Across Two Life History Stages

Rising atmospheric CO₂ reduces seawater pH causing ocean acidification (OA). Understanding how resilient marine organisms respond to OA may help predict how community dynamics will shift as CO₂ continues rising. The common slipper shell snail Crepidula fornicata is a marine gastropod native to eastern North America that has been a successful invader along the western European coastline and elsewhere. It has also been previously shown to be resilient to global change stressors. To examine the mechanisms underlying C. fornicata’s resilience to OA, we conducted two controlled laboratory experiments. First, we examined several phenotypes and genome-wide gene expression of C. fornicata in response to pH treatments (7.5, 7.6, and 8.0) throughout the larval stage and then tested how conditions experienced as larvae influenced juvenile stages (i.e., carry-over effects). Second, we examined genome-wide gene expression patterns of C. fornicata larvae in response to acute (4, 10, 24, and 48 h) pH treatment (7.5 and 8.0). Both C. fornicata larvae and juveniles exhibited resilience to OA and their gene expression responses highlight the role of transcriptome plasticity in this resilience. Larvae did not exhibit reduced growth under OA until they were at least 8 days old. These phenotypic effects were preceded by broad transcriptomic changes, which likely served as an acclimation mechanism for combating reduced pH conditions frequently experienced in littoral zones. Larvae reared in reduced pH conditions also took longer to become competent to metamorphose. In addition, while juvenile sizes at metamorphosis reflected larval rearing pH conditions, no carry-over effects on juvenile growth rates were observed. Transcriptomic analyses suggest increased metabolism under OA, which may indicate compensation in reduced pH environments. Transcriptomic analyses through time suggest that these energetic burdens experienced under OA eventually dissipate, allowing C. fornicata to reduce metabolic demands and acclimate to reduced pH. Carry-over effects from larval OA conditions were observed in juveniles; however, these effects were larger for more severe OA conditions and larvae reared in those conditions also demonstrated less transcriptome elasticity. This study highlights the importance of assessing the effects of OA across life history stages and demonstrates how transcriptomic plasticity may allow highly resilient organisms, like C. fornicata, to acclimate to reduced pH environments.

Tolerant Larvae and Sensitive Juveniles: Integrating Metabolomics and Whole-Organism Responses to Define Life-Stage Specific Sensitivity to Ocean Acidification in the American Lobster

Bentho-pelagic life cycles are the dominant reproductive strategy in marine invertebrates, providing great dispersal ability, access to different resources, and the opportunity to settle in suitable habitats upon the trigger of environmental cues at key developmental moments. However, free-dispersing larvae can be highly sensitive to environmental changes. Among these, the magnitude and the occurrence of elevated carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations in oceanic habitats is predicted to exacerbate over the next decades, particularly in coastal areas, reaching levels beyond those historically experienced by most marine organisms. Here, we aimed to determine the sensitivity to elevated pCO₂ of successive life stages of a marine invertebrate species with a bentho-pelagic life cycle, exposed continuously during its early ontogeny, whilst providing in-depth insights on their metabolic responses. We selected, as an ideal study species, the American lobster Homarus americanus, and investigated life history traits, whole-organism physiology, and metabolomic fingerprints from larval stage I to juvenile stage V exposed to different pCO₂ levels. Current and future ocean acidification scenarios were tested, as well as extreme high pCO₂/low pH conditions that are predicted to occur in coastal benthic habitats and with leakages from underwater carbon capture storage (CCS) sites. Larvae demonstrated greater tolerance to elevated pCO₂, showing no significant changes in survival, developmental time, morphology, and mineralisation, although they underwent intense metabolomic reprogramming. Conversely, juveniles showed the inverse pattern, with a reduction in survival and an increase in development time at the highest pCO₂ levels tested, with no indication of metabolomic reprogramming. Metabolomic sensitivity to elevated pCO₂ increased until metamorphosis (between larval and juvenile stages) and decreased afterward, suggesting this transition as a metabolic keystone for marine invertebrates with complex life cycles.

A novel larval diet interacts with nutritional stress to modify juvenile behaviors and glucocorticoid responses

Developmental plasticity can allow the exploitation of alternative diets. While such flexibility during early life is often adaptive, it can leave a legacy in later life that alters the overall health and fitness of an individual. Species of the spadefoot toad genus Spea are uniquely poised to address such carryover effects because their larvae can consume drastically different diets: their ancestral diet of detritus or a derived shrimp diet. Here, we use Spea bombifrons to assess the effects of developmental plasticity in response to larval diet type and nutritional stress on juvenile behaviors and stress axis reactivity. We find that, in an open-field assay, juveniles fed shrimp as larvae have longer latencies to move, avoid prey items more often, and have poorer prey-capture abilities. While juveniles fed shrimp as larvae are more exploratory, this effect disappears if they also experienced a temporary nutritional stressor during early life. The larval shrimp diet additionally impairs juvenile jumping performance. Finally, larvae that were fed shrimp under normal nutritional conditions produce juveniles with higher overall glucocorticoid levels, and larvae that were fed shrimp and experienced a temporary nutritional stressor produce juveniles with higher stress-induced glucocorticoid levels. Thus, while it has been demonstrated that consuming the novel, alternative diet can be adaptive for larvae in nature, doing so has marked effects on juvenile phenotypes that may recalibrate an individual's overall fitness. Given that organisms often utilize diverse diets in nature, our study underscores the importance of considering how diet type interacts with early-life nutritional adversity to influence subsequent life stages.

Female Songbirds Can Initiate the Transition from a Migratory to a Reproductive Physiology during Spring Migration

AbstractThe high energetic costs of both migration and reproduction and the physiological changes to support these costs suggest that these life-history stages should be compartmentalized with little overlap between stages. In contrast, previous studies have shown that male birds can initiate reproductive development during migration before arrival on the breeding grounds with increases in plasma testosterone levels and testis size. However, sex differences in seasonal gonadal function are now recognized as profound, and few studies to date have shown that females can initiate the costly, but critical, estrogen-dependent final stages of gonadal maturation and changes in liver function (yolk precursor synthesis, vitellogenesis) while on migration. Here, we show that female yellow warblers (Setophaga petechia) arrive on the breeding grounds with elevated plasma triglyceride levels compared with males. Some females had plasma triglyceride levels of 5-7 mmol L^-1, suggesting that they arrived in a relatively advanced stage of yolk precursor production. Furthermore, we show that females that arrived with higher plasma triglyceride levels took less time to initiate their first clutch. Adaptive plasticity in the timing of the transition from a migratory to a reproductive physiology might help migrant birds buffer against a mismatch between timing of arrival and conditions on the breeding grounds and allow them to advance timing of breeding to maximize breeding productivity.

Lagged and dormant season climate better predict plant vital rates than climate during the growing season

Understanding the effects of climate on the vital rates (e.g., survival, development, reproduction) and dynamics of natural populations is a long-standing quest in ecology, with ever-increasing relevance in the face of climate change. However, linking climate drivers to demographic processes requires identifying the appropriate time windows during which climate influences vital rates. Researchers often do not have access to the long-term data required to test a large number of windows, and are thus forced to make a priori choices. In this study, we first synthesize the literature to assess current a priori choices employed in studies performed on 104 plant species that link climate drivers with demographic responses. Second, we use a sliding-window approach to investigate which combination of climate drivers and temporal window have the best predictive ability for vital rates of four perennial plant species that each have over a decade of demographic data (Helianthella quinquenervis, Frasera speciosa, Cylindriopuntia imbricata, and Cryptantha flava). Our literature review shows that most studies consider time windows in only the year preceding the measurement of the vital rate(s) of interest, and focus on annual or growing season temporal scales. In contrast, our sliding-window analysis shows that in only four out of 13 vital rates the selected climate drivers have time windows that align with, or are similar to, the growing season. For many vital rates, the best window lagged more than 1 year and up to 4 years before the measurement of the vital rate. Our results demonstrate that for the vital rates of these four species, climate drivers that are lagged or outside of the growing season are the norm. Our study suggests that considering climatic predictors that fall outside of the most recent growing season will improve our understanding of how climate affects population dynamics.

The Role of Information Avoidance in Managing Uncertainty from Conflicting Recommendations about Electronic Cigarettes

Insufficient scientific evidence about electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) has led to conflicting recommendations (CRs) by credible scientific organizations, creating a public health debate that could prove especially difficult to reconcile as current and former smokers make decisions about whether to use e-cigarettes. To investigate how CRs about e-cigarettes may affect intentions to engage in healthy behaviors, 717 former and current smokers were randomly exposed to one of five conditions (varying in the level of conflict in recommendations) in this between-subject experiment. Our results indicated a significant interaction between the message level of conflict and individuals' information avoidance, employed to maintain hope and deniability. These results suggest the effects of CRs stemming from scientific uncertainty vary with subgroups of people, pointing to several pressing theoretical and practical implications.

Pre- to post-fledging carryover effects and the adaptive significance of variation in wing development for juvenile songbirds

Evolutionary ecologists have long been interested in the adaptive significance of morphological traits across stages of animal life. In some cases, traits that are not adaptive in one life stage may be adaptive in a subsequent stage. As such, morphological traits may generate important carryover effects, whereby conditions experienced during one life-history stage influence fitness during subsequent stages. Carryover effects are particularly relevant in young animals, as early life stages are thought to be critical with respect to animal life-history evolution and population dynamics. In songbirds, pre- to post-fledging carryover effects operating within species may be critical for survival and shape life histories among species, but remain poorly understood. Among potential songbird traits, wing development and its associated flight ability may be the most important for post-fledging survival. Thus, to assess the adaptive significance of wing development for juvenile songbirds under Arnold's (Integrative and Comparative Biology, 23, 1983, 347) classic performance-morphology-fitness paradigm, we tested for pre- to post-fledging carryover effects among 20 coexisting species (nine focal species) of an avian community in east-central Illinois, USA. We found evidence for pre- to post-fledging carryover effects of wing development in all species, by which individuals with less developed wings exhibited poorer flight ability and experienced higher rates of mortality after fledging. Furthermore, our findings suggest that carryover effects operating at the species level ultimately help shape patterns of life-history variation among species. Specifically, we found that species with higher rates of nest predation had shorter nestling periods, fledged young with less developed wings and exhibited higher rates of post-fledging mortality. Our results highlight the adaptive significance of wing development as a key factor generating pre- to post-fledging carryover effects among songbirds, and demonstrate how morphological traits, locomotor performance, and age-specific survival may trade-off and interact across juvenile life stages to shape animal life histories.

Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese: Predation, density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high-arctic warming

Climate change is most rapid in the Arctic, posing both benefits and challenges for migratory herbivores. However, population-dynamic responses to climate change are generally difficult to predict, due to concurrent changes in other trophic levels. Migratory species are also exposed to contrasting climate trends and density regimes over the annual cycle. Thus, determining how climate change impacts their population dynamics requires an understanding of how weather directly or indirectly (through trophic interactions and carryover effects) affects reproduction and survival across migratory stages, while accounting for density dependence. Here, we analyse the overall implications of climate change for a local non-hunted population of high-arctic Svalbard barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis, using 28 years of individual-based data. By identifying the main drivers of reproductive stages (egg production, hatching and fledging) and age-specific survival rates, we quantify their impact on population growth. Recent climate change in Svalbard enhanced egg production and hatching success through positive effects of advanced spring onset (snow melt) and warmer summers (i.e. earlier vegetation green-up) respectively. Contrastingly, there was a strong temporal decline in fledging probability due to increased local abundance of the Arctic fox, the main predator. While weather during the non-breeding season influenced geese through a positive effect of temperature (UK wintering grounds) on adult survival and a positive carryover effect of rainfall (spring stopover site in Norway) on egg production, these covariates showed no temporal trends. However, density-dependent effects occurred throughout the annual cycle, and the steadily increasing total flyway population size caused negative trends in overwinter survival and carryover effects on egg production. The combination of density-dependent processes and direct and indirect climate change effects across life history stages appeared to stabilize local population size. Our study emphasizes the need for holistic approaches when studying population-dynamic responses to global change in migratory species.

The demographic and life-history costs of fear: Trait-mediated effects of threat of predation on Aedes triseriatus

Predators alter prey populations via direct lethality (density-mediated effects), but in many taxa, the indirect nonlethal threat of predation may be almost as strong an effect, altering phenotypically plastic traits such as prey morphology, behavior, and life history (trait-mediated effects). There are costs to antipredator defenses and the strength of prey responses to cues of predation likely depends on both the perceived level of risk and food availability.The goal of this study was to test the hypothesis that the costs of nonlethal trait-mediated interactions impacting larvae can have carryover effects that alter life-history traits, adult characteristics, and ultimately population dynamics.The effects of Toxorhynchites rutilus kairomones and chemical alarm cues on Aedes triseriatus were assessed in a two-level factorial design manipulating nutrient level (low or high) and chemical cues of predation (present or absent).Nonlethal chemical cues of predation significantly decreased female survivorship and significantly decreased female size. Females emerged as adults significantly earlier when exposed to predation cues when there was high nutrient availability. When raised in the low nutrient treatment and exposed to predator cues, adult females had 2.1 times the hazard of death compared to high nutrient-no predator cues. Females raised in the high nutrient and predator cue treatment blood fed sooner than did females from other combinations.Fear of predation can substantially alter prey life-history traits and behavior, which can cascade into dramatic population, community, and ecosystem effects. Exposure to predator cues significantly decreased the estimated cohort rate of increase, potentially altering the expected population density of the next generation.

Evaluation of the carryover effect of antibiotic, bee pollen and propolis on growth performance, carcass traits and splenic and hepatic histology of growing rabbits

Sixty-four nulliparous female rabbits were distributed among eight groups (eight animals/group). Group one was the unsupplemented control group; the other seven groups were supplemented with zinc bacitracin (ZnB) at 100 mg, or bee pollen (BP) and/or propolis (Pro) at 150 and 300 mg in a capsulated form, three times a week, day after day, continuously all over the experimental period. The experiment was run for eight parties; at each parity, 28 kids of each doe group (a total of 224 rabbits) were divided into two subgroups weaned, respectively, at 24 and 30 days of age. Thus, for each parity, there were 16 groups (eight does treatments × two weaning age, 14 rabbits per group). The growing rabbits fed the standard diets without supplements. The growth performance, the carcass traits, the liver and the spleen histology of rabbits were checked up to 90 days of age to find possible carryover effects of the supplements. The supplements had no significant effect on most of the growth performance at 90 days of age, but BP150 and BP+Pro300 increased the growth rate in comparison with ZnB group. The liver weight in the control, BP300 and Pro300 groups was higher than the ZnB one. The spleen weight was higher in the groups ZnB, BP150, Pro300 and BP+Pro300, followed by the control, BP300 and BP+Pro150 and thus Pro150. The heart % in the BP150 and Pro300 groups was higher than ZnB and BP+Pro150 groups. A lymphoid hyperplasia of splenic white pulp was observed in the BP+Pro groups, while propolis alone showed a mild activation of lymphobiosis. The Pro and BP groups showed the same picture of the control group exhibiting a hydropic degeneration of mostly hepatic cells, while the ZnB group exhibited adverse effect on the bile ducts featuring portal periductal inflammatory cells infiltration with epithelial hyperplasia reflecting chronic cholangitis.

Nutritional correlates of the overwintering and seaward migratory decisions and long-term survival of post-spawning Atlantic salmon

Despite the importance of iteroparity (i.e. repeated spawning) for the viability of Atlantic salmon populations, little is known about the factors influencing the migratory behaviour and survival prospect of post-spawned individuals (kelts). To test the hypothesis that post-spawning nutritional condition underlies differences in spatiotemporal aspects of the habitat use and survival of migrating Atlantic salmon kelts, we physiologically sampled and acoustically tagged 25 individuals from the Middle River, Nova Scotia in autumn 2015. Kelts were subsequently tracked within their natal river during the winter months, and as far as 650 km away along known migration pathways towards the Labrador Sea and Greenland. Some kelts were detected nearly 2 years later, upon their return to the natal river for repeat spawning. Overall, kelts in poor or depleted post-spawning nutritional state (i.e. low body condition index or plasma triglyceride level): (i) initiated down-river migration earlier than higher condition kelts; (ii) experienced higher overwinter mortality in the natal river; (iii) tended to spend greater time in the estuary before moving to sea and (iv) did not progress as far in the marine environment, with a reduced probability of future, repeat spawning. Our findings suggest that initial differences in post-spawning condition are carried through subsequent migratory stages, which can ultimately affect repeat-spawning potential. These results point to the importance of lipid storage and mobilisation in Atlantic salmon kelts for mediating post-spawning migratory behaviour and survival.

Novel Modelling Approaches to Characterize and Quantify Carryover Effects on Sensory Acceptability

Sensory biases caused by the residual sensations of previously served samples are known as carryover effects (COE). Contrast and convergence effects are the two possible outcomes of carryover. COE can lead to misinterpretations of acceptability, due to the presence of intrinsic psychological/physiological biases. COE on sensory acceptability (hedonic liking) were characterized and quantified using mixed and nonlinear models. N = 540 subjects evaluated grape juice samples of different acceptability qualities (A = good, B = medium, C = poor) for the liking of color (C), taste (T), and overall (OL). Three models were used to quantify COE: (1) COE as an interaction effect; (2) COE as a residual effect; (3) COE proportional to the treatment effect. For (1), COE was stronger for C than T and OL, although COE was minimal. For (2), C showed higher estimates (−0.15 to +0.10) of COE than did T and OL (−0.09 to +0.07). COE mainly took the form of convergence. For (3), the absolute proportionality parameter estimate (λ) was higher for C than for T and OL (−0.155 vs. −0.004 to −0.039), which represented −15.46% of its direct treatment effect. Model (3) showed a significant COE for C. COE cannot be ignored as they may lead to the misinterpretation of sensory acceptability results.

Time-lagged effects of weather on plant demography: drought and Astragalus scaphoides

Temperature and precipitation determine the conditions where plant species can occur. Despite their significance, to date, surprisingly few demographic field studies have considered the effects of abiotic drivers. This is problematic because anticipating the effect of global climate change on plant population viability requires understanding how weather variables affect population dynamics. One possible reason for omitting the effect of weather variables in demographic studies is the difficulty in detecting tight associations between vital rates and environmental drivers. In this paper, we applied Functional Linear Models (FLMs) to long-term demographic data of the perennial wildflower, Astragalus scaphoides, and explored sensitivity of the results to reduced amounts of data. We compared models of the effect of average temperature, total precipitation, or an integrated measure of drought intensity (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI), on plant vital rates. We found that transitions to flowering and recruitment in year t were highest if winter/spring of year t was wet (positive effect of SPEI). Counterintuitively, if the preceding spring of year t - 1 was wet, flowering probabilities were decreased (negative effect of SPEI). Survival of vegetative plants from t - 1 to t was also negatively affected by wet weather in the spring of year t - 1 and, for large plants, even wet weather in the spring of t - 2 had a negative effect. We assessed the integrated effect of all vital rates on life history performance by fitting FLMs to the asymptotic growth rate, log(λt). Log(λt) was highest if dry conditions in year t - 1 were followed by wet conditions in the year t. Overall, the positive effects of wet years exceeded their negative effects, suggesting that increasing frequency of drought conditions would reduce population viability of A. scaphoides. The drought signal weakened when reducing the number of monitoring years. Substituting space for time did not recover the weather signal, probably because the weather variables varied little between sites. We detected the SPEI signal when the analysis included data from two sites monitored over 20 yr (2 × 20 observations), but not when analyzing data from four sites monitored over 10 yr (4 × 10 observations).

Migratory life histories explain the extreme egg-size dimorphism of Eudyptes penguins

When successive stages in the life history of an animal directly overlap, physiological conflicts can arise resulting in carryover effects from one stage to another. The extreme egg-size dimorphism (ESD) of Eudyptes penguins, where the first-laid A-egg is approximately 18-57% smaller than the second-laid B-egg, has interested researchers for decades. Recent studies have linked variation in this trait to a carryover effect of migration that limits the physiology of yolk production and egg sizes. We assembled data on ESD and estimates of migration-reproduction overlap in penguin species and use phylogenetic methods to test the idea that migration-reproduction overlap explains variation in ESD. We show that migration overlap is generally restricted to Eudyptes relative to non-Eudyptes penguins, and that this overlap (defined as the amount of time that egg production occurs on land versus at sea during homeward migration) is significantly and positively correlated with the degree of ESD in Eudyptes In the non-Eudyptes species, however, ESD was unrelated to migration overlap as these species mostly produce their clutches on land. Our results support the recent hypothesis that extreme ESD of Eudyptes penguins evolved, in part, as a response to selection for a pelagic overwinter migration behaviour. This resulted in a temporal overlap with, and thus a constraint on, the physiology of follicle development, leading to smaller A-egg size and greater ESD.

Senescence and carryover effects of reproductive performance influence migration, condition, and breeding propensity in a small shorebird

Breeding propensity, the probability that an animal will attempt to breed each year, is perhaps the least understood demographic process influencing annual fecundity. Breeding propensity is ecologically complex, as associations among a variety of intrinsic and extrinsic factors may interact to affect an animal's breeding decisions. Individuals that opt not to breed can be more difficult to detect than breeders, which can (1) lead to difficulty in estimation of breeding propensity, and (2) bias other demographic parameters. We studied the effects of sex, age, and population reproductive success on the survival and breeding propensity of a migratory shorebird, the piping plover (Charadrius melodus), nesting on the Missouri River. We used a robust design Barker model to estimate true survival and breeding propensity and found survival decreased as birds aged and did so more quickly for males than females. Monthly survival during the breeding season was lower than during migration or the nonbreeding season. Males were less likely to skip breeding (range: 1-17%) than females (range: 3-26%; βsex = -0.21, 95% CI: -0.38 to -0.21), and both sexes were less likely to return to the breeding grounds following a year of high reproductive success. Birds that returned in a year following relatively high population-wide reproductive output were in poorer condition than following a year with lower reproductive output. Younger adult birds and females were more likely to migrate from the breeding area earlier than older birds and males; however, all birds stayed on the breeding grounds longer when nest survival was low, presumably because of renesting attempts. Piping plovers used a variety of environmental and demographic cues to inform their reproduction, employing strategies that could maximize fitness on average. Our results support the "disposable soma" theory of aging and follow with predictions from life history theory, exhibiting the intimate connections among the core ecological concepts of senescence, carryover effects, and life history.

Blue light-induced immunosuppression in Bactrocera dorsalis adults, as a carryover effect of larval exposure

Detrimental effects of ultraviolet (UV) light on living organisms are well understood, little is known about the effects of blue light irradiation. Although a recent study revealed that blue light caused more harmful effects on insects than UV light and blue light irradiation killed insect pests of various orders including Diptera, the effects of blue light on physiology of insects are still largely unknown. Here we studied the effects of blue light irradiation on cuticular melanin in larval and the immune response in adult stage of Bactrocera dorsalis. We also evaluated the effects of blue light exposure in larval stage on various age and mass at metamorphosis and the mediatory role of cuticular melanin in carryover effects of larval stressors across metamorphosis. We found that larvae exposed to blue light decreased melanin contents in their exoskeleton with smaller mass and delayed metamorphosis than insects reared without blue light exposure. Across metamorphosis, lower melanotic encapsulation response and higher susceptibility to Beauveria bassiana was detected in adults that had been exposed to blue light at their larval stage, thereby constituting the first evidence that blue light impaired adult immune function in B. dorsalis as a carryover effect of larval exposure.

The Joint Contribution of Activation and Inhibition in Moderating Carryover Effects of Anger on Social Judgment

Carryover effects of emotions that lead to biases in social judgments are commonly observed. We suggest that such effects may be influenced by the ability to engage or disengage attention from emotional stimuli. We assessed the ability to activate and inhibit attention to anger stimuli, experimentally induced anger in a demanding task, and measured social judgment toward an ambiguous target. Results show that higher activation and higher inhibition of anger-related information predicted more biased evaluations of the ambiguous target when individuals were experiencing anger, but not in an emotionally neutral condition. Interestingly, the effect of activation and inhibition in the anger condition emerged only when such variables were entered simultaneously in the regression model, indicating that they had an additive effect in predicting carryover effects of anger on social judgement. Results are consistent with a cooperative suppression effect (Conger, 1974) of activation and inhibition and may be explained by either an increased accessibility of anger-related cues leading to more biased social judgments, or by an instance in which being good at engaging in and disengaging attention from emotional cues might have depleted participants' resources making carryover effects of anger more likely to occur. Ultimately, the finding highlight that individual differences in attentional processes are important moderators for carryover effects of emotions.

Conditions on the Mexican moulting grounds influence feather colour and carotenoids in Bullock's orioles (Icterus bullockii)

Carotenoid-based plumage coloration plays a critical role for both inter- and intrasexual communication. Habitat and diet during molt can have important consequences for the development of the ornamental signals used in these contexts. When molt occurs away from the breeding grounds (e.g., pre-alternate molt on the wintering grounds, or stopover molt), discerning the influence of habitat and diet can be particularly important, as these effects may result in important carryover effects that influence territory acquisition or mate choice in subsequent seasons. Several species of songbirds in western North America, including the Bullock's oriole (Icterus bullockii), migrate from the breeding grounds to undergo a complete prebasic (post-breeding) molt at a stopover site in the region affected by the Mexican monsoon climate pattern. This strategy appears to have evolved several times independently in response to the harsh, food-limited late-summer conditions in the arid West, which contrast strongly with the high productivity driven by heavy rains that is characteristic of the Mexican monsoon region. Within this region, individuals may be able to optimize plumage coloration by molting in favourable areas characterized by high resource abundance. We used stable isotope analysis (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N) to ask whether the diet and molt habitat/location of Bullock's orioles influenced their expression of carotenoid-based plumage coloration as well as plumage carotenoid content and composition. Bullock's orioles with lower feather δ¹⁵N values acquired more colorful plumage (orange-shifted hue) but had feathers with lower total carotenoid concentration, lower zeaxanthin concentration, and marginally lower canthaxanthin and lutein concentration. Examining factors occurring throughout the annual cycle are critical for understanding evolutionary and ecological processes. Here, we demonstrate that conditions experienced during a stopover molt, occurring hundreds to thousands of kilometers from the breeding grounds, influence the production of ornamental plumage coloration, which may carryover to influence inter- and intrasexual signaling in subsequent seasons.

Carryover effects drive competitive dominance in spatially structured environments

Understanding how changes to the quality of habitat patches affect the distribution of species across the whole landscape is critical in our human-dominated world and changing climate. Although patterns of species' abundances across a landscape are clearly influenced by dispersal among habitats and local species interactions, little is known about how the identity and origin of dispersers affect these patterns. Because traits of individuals are altered by experiences in their natal habitat, differences in the natal habitat of dispersers can carry over when individuals disperse to new habitats and alter their fitness and interactions with other species. We manipulated the presence or absence of such carried-over natal habitat effects for up to eight generations to examine their influence on two interacting species across multiple dispersal rates and different habitat compositions. We found that experimentally accounting for the natal habitat of dispersers significantly influenced competitive outcomes at all spatial scales and increased total community biomass within a landscape. However, the direction and magnitude of the impact of natal habitat effects was dependent upon landscape type and dispersal rate. Interestingly, effects of natal habitats increased the difference between species performance across the landscape, suggesting that natal habitat effects could alter competitive interactions to promote spatial coexistence. Given that heterogeneity in habitat quality is ubiquitous in nature, natal habitat effects are likely important drivers of spatial community structure and could promote variation in species performance, which may help facilitate spatial coexistence. The results have important implications for conservation and invasive species management.

Rapid evolution of increased vulnerability to an insecticide at the expansion front in a poleward-moving damselfly

Many species are too slow to track their poleward-moving climate niche under global warming. Pesticide exposure may contribute to this by reducing population growth and impairing flight ability. Moreover, edge populations at the moving range front may be more vulnerable to pesticides because of the rapid evolution of traits to enhance their rate of spread that shunt energy away from detoxification and repair. We exposed replicated edge and core populations of the poleward-moving damselfly Coenagrion scitulum to the pesticide esfenvalerate at low and high densities. Exposure to esfenvalerate had strong negative effects on survival, growth rate, and development time in the larval stage and negatively affected flight-related adult traits (mass at emergence, flight muscle mass, and fat content) across metamorphosis. Pesticide effects did not differ between edge and core populations, except that at the high concentration the pesticide-induced mortality was 17% stronger in edge populations. Pesticide exposure may therefore slow down the range expansion by lowering population growth rates, especially because edge populations suffered a higher mortality, and by negatively affecting dispersal ability by impairing flight-related traits. These results emphasize the need for direct conservation efforts toward leading-edge populations for facilitating future range shifts under global warming.

Genetic correlations between adults and larvae in a marine fish: potential effects of fishery selection on population replenishment

Correlated genetic responses have been hypothesized as important components of fishery-induced evolution, although predictive data from wild populations have been difficult to obtain. Here, we demonstrate substantial genetic correlations between a trait often subjected to fishery selection (adult body length) and traits that affect survival of larvae (length and swimming performance) in a wild population of a marine fish (bicolor damselfish, Stegastes partitus). Through both genetic covariance and size-dependent maternal effects, selection on adult size may cause a considerable, correlated response in larval traits. To quantify how variation in larval traits may affect survival, we introduce a flexible method that uses information from selection measurements to account for frequency dependence and estimate the relationship between phenotype and relative survival across a broad range of phenotypic values. Using this method, we synthesize studies of selective mortality on larval size for eight species of fish and show that variation in larval size may result in considerable variation in larval survival. We predict that observed rates of fishery selection on adult marine fishes may substantially reduce larval size and survival. The evolution of smaller larvae in response to fishery selection may therefore have substantial consequences for the viability of fished populations.