Dynamic changes in the pancreatitis activity scoring system during hospital course in a multicenter, prospective cohort

No Effect of Methylnaltrexone on Acute Pancreatitis Severity: A Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial

INTRODUCTION

Opioids used to manage severe pain in acute pancreatitis (AP) might exacerbate the disease through effects on gastrointestinal and immune functions. Methylnaltrexone, a peripherally acting µ-opioid receptor antagonist, may counteract these effects without changing analgesia.

METHODS

This double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial included adult patients with AP and systemic inflammatory response syndrome at 4 Danish centers. Patients were randomized to receive 5 days of continuous intravenous methylnaltrexone (0.15 mg/kg/d) or placebo added to the standard of care. The primary end point was the Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System score after 48 hours of treatment. Main secondary outcomes included pain scores, opioid use, disease severity, and mortality.

RESULTS

In total, 105 patients (54% men) were randomized to methylnaltrexone (n = 51) or placebo (n = 54). After 48 hours, the Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System score was 134.3 points in the methylnaltrexone group and 130.5 points in the placebo group (difference 3.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] -40.1 to 47.6; P = 0.87). At 48 hours, we found no differences between the groups in pain severity (0.0, 95% CI -0.8 to 0.9; P = 0.94), pain interference (-0.3, 95% CI -1.4 to 0.8; P = 0.55), and morphine equivalent doses (6.5 mg, 95% CI -2.1 to 15.2; P = 0.14). Methylnaltrexone also did not affect the risk of severe disease (8%, 95% CI -11 to 28; P = 0.38) and mortality (6%, 95% CI -1 to 12; P = 0.11). The medication was well tolerated.

DISCUSSION

Methylnaltrexone treatment did not achieve superiority over placebo for reducing the severity of AP.

Radiomics models of contrast-enhanced computed tomography for predicting the activity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

The modified pancreatitis activity scoring system (mPASS) was proposed to assess the activity of acute pancreatitis (AP) while it doesn't include indicators that directly reflect pathophysiology processes and imaging characteristics.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the threshold of admission mPASS and investigate radiomics and laboratory parameters to construct a model to predict the activity of AP.

METHODS

AP inpatients at institution 1 were randomly divided into training and validation groups based on a 5:5 ratio. AP inpatients at Institution 2 were served as test group. The cutoff value of admission mPASS scores in predicting severe AP was selected to divide patients into high and low level of disease activity group. LASSO was used in screening features. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop radiomics model. Meaningful laboratory parameters were used to construct combined model.

RESULTS

There were 234 (48 years ± 10, 155 men) and 101 (48 years ± 11, 69 men) patients in two institutions. The threshold of admission mPASS score was 112.5 in severe AP prediction. The AUC of the radiomics model was 0.79, 0.72, and 0.76 and that of the combined model incorporating rad-score and white blood cell were 0.84, 0.77, and 0.80 in three groups for activity prediction. The AUC of the combined model in predicting disease without remission was 0.74.

CONCLUSIONS

The threshold of admission mPASS was 112.5 in predicting severe AP. The model based on CECT radiomics has the ability to predict AP activity. Its ability to predict disease without remission is comparable to mPASS.

CRITICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

This work is the first attempt to assess the activity of acute pancreatitis using contrast-enhanced CT radiomics and laboratory parameters. The model provides a new method to predict the activity and prognosis of AP, which could contribute to further management.

KEY POINTS

Radiomics features and laboratory parameters are associated with the activity of acute pancreatitis. The combined model provides a new method to predict the activity and prognosis of AP. The ability of the combined model is comparable to the modified Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System.

Predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis: Current approaches and future directions

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a sudden-onset inflammatory disease of the pancreas. The severity of AP is classified into mild, moderate, and severe categories based on the presence and persistence of organ failure. Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) can be associated with significant morbidity and mortality. It requires early recognition for appropriate timely management. Prognostic scores for predicting SAP incorporating many clinical, laboratory, and radiological parameters have been developed in the past. However, all of these prognostic scores have low positive predictive value for SAP and some of these scores require >24 h for assessment. There is a need to develop biomarkers that can accurately identify patients at risk for SAP early in the course of the presentation. In this review, we aim to provide a summary of the most commonly utilized prognostic scores for AP and discuss future directions.

A comparison of scoring systems and biomarkers to predict the severity of acute pancreatitis in patients referring to the emergency clinic

To investigate scoring systems and biomarkers for determining the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis (AP). Between January and July 2023, 100 patients with AP diagnosed and treated in the emergency department were included. AP was divided into 2 groups according to severity: mild AP and moderately severe AP (MSAP-SAP), according to the revised Atlanta Classification in 2012. Demographic characteristics, severity, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, white blood cell count (WBC), hematocrit, red cell distribution width from whole blood taken at admission and 48 hours later, C-reactive protein (CRP) and biochemistry values, Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System (PASS), and harmless AP score scores were recorded retrospectively. Our variables, which were found to be significant in multiple logistic regression results, were found to increase MSAP-SAP expectation by 4.36-, 7.85-, 6.63 and 5.80 times in the presence of CRP > 47.10, WBC > 13.10, PASS > 0, and necrotizing computed tomography findings, respectively. It was detected that the risk factor which was found significant as a single variable affecting the ICU admission increased the risk of ICU requirement by 28.88 when PASS > 0, by 3.96 when BISAP > 1, and it increased the Atlanta score by 9.93-fold. We found that WBC and CRP values at the time of hospital admission and WBC, CRP, and red cell distribution width values after 48 had the highest accuracy in determining AP disease severity. BISAP, which was found to be significant in determining MSAP-SAP expectations, lost its significance in multiple logistic regression results, and PASS was found to be effective. The PASS is an important score in the clinical evaluation of patients with AP and in determining the need for ICU hospitalization.

Value of serum CRP and IL-6 Assays combined with Pancreatitis activity scoring system for assessing the severity of patients with acute pancreatitis

Objective

To evaluate the accuracy of serum CRP and IL-6 assays combined with the pancreatitis activity scoring system (PASS) in assessing the severity of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP).

Methods

This was a retrospective study of 223 patients with AP admitted to Baoding Lianchi District People's Hospital between February 2021 and 2023. They were classified into three categories: mild AP (MAP), moderate severe AP (MSAP) and severe AP (SAP). The differences, accuracy and sensitivity of the individual assays, and the three in combination, were compared and analysed in the three groups.

Results

PASS scores, IL-6 and CRP levels were significantly higher in the SAP and MSAP groups compared to those in the MAP group, with statistically significant differences between the three groups. Multi-factorial logistic regression analysis suggested that PASS, IL-6 and CRP were correlated indicators of AP severity. The combination of the three assays was higher than that of the PASS score, IL-6 and CRP alone, suggesting optimal diagnostic efficacy when the three assays were combined. Moreover, the levels of PASS score, IL-6 and CRP showed a positive correlation with the degree of disease severity.

Conclusions

The serum CRP, IL-6 and PASS scores were significantly elevated in AP patients and showed a positive correlation with disease severity, all of which are beneficial for the diagnosis of AP. PASS is superior to CRP and IL-6 in the assessment of AP. The combination of the three assays can achieve a far superior diagnostic efficacy to that of the individual index assays.

Prediction of infected pancreatic necrosis in acute necrotizing pancreatitis by the modified pancreatitis activity scoring system

OBJECTIVES

Infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) is a significant complication of acute necrotizing pancreatitis (ANP). Early identification of patients at high risk of IPN would enable appropriate treatment, but there is a lack of valid tools. This study aimed to assess the performance of the Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System (PASS) and its modifications (by removing or reducing the weight of opioid usage) in predicting IPN in a cohort of predicted severe ANP patients.

METHODS

Data was prospectively collected in the TRACE trial (2017-2020) involving 16 sites across China. The predictive performance of PASS, modified PASS (mPASS), and conventional indices were assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Hosmer-Lemeshow Ĉ-test, Brier score, and Fagan's nomogram. Multivariate logistic regression analysis (MLRA) was used to define the relationship between the best-performing PASS/mPASS model and IPN.

RESULTS

A total of 508 subjects were enrolled (median age, 43 years; 62.8% males) in the original trial, and 122 developed IPN (24%) within 90 days after randomization. Compared with non-IPN patients, the scores of PASS and its modified models were significantly higher in the IPN patients (all p < 0.001). Among the PASS and its modifications, mPASS-4 had the largest AUC, the lowest Brier score, and good calibration. The mPASS-4 model demonstrated an AUC of 0.752 in predicting IPN (the optimal cut-off for the mPASS-4 was 292.5) and outperformed the conventional indices. The MLRA results showed that mPASS-4 >292.5 was an independent risk factor of IPN (OR: 3.6, 95% CI: 2.1-6.3).

CONCLUSION

The PASS and its modifications during the first week of ANP onset predict the development of IPN, with mPASS-4 performing best. The mPASS-4 model simplifies the original PASS, increasing the likelihood of clinical implementation.

Clinical utility of the pancreatitis activity scoring system in severe acute pancreatitis

Objective: To analyze clinical utility of pancreatitis activity scoring system (PASS) in prediction of persistent organ failure, poor prognosis, and in-hospital mortality in patients with moderately severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP) or severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).

Methods: The study included a total of 140 patients with MSAP and SAP admitted to the ICU of Shandong Provincial Hospital from 2015 to 2021. The general information, biochemical indexes and PASS scores of patients at ICU admission time were collected. Independent risk factors of persistent organ failure, poor prognosis and in-hospital mortality were analyzed by binary logistic regression. Through receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), the predictive ability of lactic acid, procalcitonin, urea nitrogen, PASS, and PASS in combination with urea nitrogen for the three outcomes was compared. The best cut-off value was determined.

Results: Binary logistic regression showed that PASS might be an independent risk factor for patients with persistent organ failure (odds ratio [OR]: 1.027, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.014–1.039), poor prognosis (OR: 1.008, 95% CI: 1.001–1.014), and in-hospital mortality (OR: 1.009, 95% CI: 1.000–1.019). PASS also had a good predictive ability for persistent organ failure (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.839, 95% CI: 0.769–0.910) and in-hospital mortality (AUC = 0.780, 95% CI: 0.669–0.891), which was significantly superior to lactic acid, procalcitonin, urea nitrogen and Ranson score. PASS (AUC = 0.756, 95% CI: 0.675–0.837) was second only to urea nitrogen (AUC = 0.768, 95% CI: 0.686–0.850) in the prediction of poor prognosis. Furthermore, the predictive power of urea nitrogen in combination with PASS was better than that of each factor for persistent organ failure (AUC = 0.849, 95% CI: 0.779–0.920), poor prognosis (AUC = 0.801, 95% CI: 0.726–0.876), and in-hospital mortality (AUC = 0.796, 95% CI: 0.697–0.894).

Conclusion: PASS was closely correlated with the prognosis of patients with MSAP and SAP. This scoring system may be used as a common clinical index to measure the activity of acute pancreatitis and evaluate disease prognosis.

The Modified Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System Shows Distinct Trajectories in Acute Pancreatitis: An International Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The aims of this study were to: (1) assess the performance of the Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System (PASS) in a large intercontinental cohort of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP); and (2) investigate whether a modified PASS (mPASS) yields a similar predictive accuracy and produces distinct early trajectories between severity subgroups.

METHODS

Data was prospectively collected through the Acute Pancreatitis Patient Registry to Examine Novel Therapies In Clinical Experience (APPRENTICE) consortium (2015-2018) involving 22 centers from 4 continents. AP severity was categorized per the revised Atlanta classification. PASS trajectories were compared between the three severity groups using the generalized estimating equations model. Four mPASS models were generated by modifying the morphine equivalent dose (MED), and their trajectories were compared.

RESULTS

A total of 1393 subjects were enrolled (median age, 49 years; 51% males). The study cohort included 950 mild (68.2%), 315 (22.6%) moderately severe, and 128 (9.2%) severe AP. Mild cases had the lowest PASS at each study time point (all P < .001). A subset of patients with outlier admission PASS values was identified. In the outlier group, 70% of the PASS variation was attributed to the MED, and 66% of these patients were from the United States centers. Among the 4 modified models, the mPASS-1 (excluding MED from PASS) demonstrated high performance in predicting severe AP with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.88 (vs area under the receiver operating characteristic of 0.83 in conventional PASS) and produced distinct trajectories with distinct slopes between severity subgroups (all P < .001).

CONCLUSION

We propose a modified model by removing the MED component, which is easier to calculate, predicts accurately severe AP, and maintains significantly distinct early trajectories.

Effects of the peripherally acting μ-opioid receptor antagonist methylnaltrexone on acute pancreatitis severity: study protocol for a multicentre double-blind randomised placebo-controlled interventional trial, the PAMORA-AP trial

Background

Moderate to severe acute pancreatitis (AP) is associated with a high rate of complications and increased mortality, yet no targeted pharmacologic treatment currently exists. As pain is a dominant symptom in AP, patients are exposed to excess levels of both endo- and exogenous opioids, which may have harmful effects on the course of AP. This trial investigates the effects of the peripherally acting μ-opioid receptor antagonist (PAMORA) methylnaltrexone on disease severity and clinical outcomes in patients with moderate to severe AP.

Methods

PAMORA-AP is a multicentre, investigator-initiated, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, interventional trial, which will be conducted at four referral centres for acute pancreatitis in Denmark. Ninety patients with early-onset AP (pain onset within 48 h) as well as predicted moderate to severe disease (two or more systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria upon admission) will be prospectively included. Subsequently, participants will be randomised (1:1) to intravenous treatment with either methylnaltrexone or matching placebo (Ringer’s lactate) during 5 days of admission. The primary endpoint will be the group difference in disease severity as defined and measured by the Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System (PASS) score 48 h after randomisation. Secondary endpoints include daily PASS scores; disease severity according to the Atlanta classification; quantification of need for analgesics, nutritional support, intravenous fluid resuscitation and antibiotics; duration of hospital admissions, readmission rates and mortality. Pain intensity and gut function will be self-reported using validated questionnaires. Exploratory endpoints include circulating levels of pro-and anti-inflammatory markers, polyethylene glycol recovery from the urine, circulating levels of blood markers of intestinal permeability, the prevalence of pancreatic complications on computed tomography (CT) scans, and colon transit time assessed using a CT-based radiopaque marker method.

Discussion

This trial aims to evaluate the PAMORA methylnaltrexone as a novel targeted pharmacotherapy in patients with moderate to severe AP with the potential benefit of improved patient outcomes.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.govNCT04743570. Registered on 28 January 2021. EudraCT 2020-002313-18.

Rectal Indomethacin Does Not Mitigate the Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome in Acute Pancreatitis: A Randomized Trial

INTRODUCTION

Experimental data suggest that nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs may prevent disease severity and mortality in acute pancreatitis (AP). The aim of this study was to compare the efficacy of rectal indomethacin vs placebo in reducing the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) score in a high-risk AP population for clinical progression.

METHODS

We conducted a single-center, quadruple-blinded, randomized, placebo-controlled trial. Eligible criteria were subjects with AP and SIRS within 72 hours of presentation and those without organ failure. Subjects were allocated in a 1:1 ratio to indomethacin or placebo using simple randomization. Both interventions were administered rectally every 8 hours for 6 doses and compared using both intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses.

RESULTS

A total of 42 subjects (mean age 52 years, 55% men) were randomized to indomethacin (n = 18) or placebo (n = 24). There was no significant difference between the indomethacin and placebo groups in the change of SIRS score, proportion of subjects with SIRS, and distribution of SIRS scores at 24, 48, and 72 hours from randomization. There were no significant differences in the change of C-reactive protein levels at 48 hours or clinical outcomes between both treatment groups. Indomethacin was as safe as placebo, with 2 adverse events occurring in the placebo and none in the indomethacin arm.

DISCUSSION

Rectal indomethacin can be safely administered over 48 hours; however, it is not superior to placebo in reducing the SIRS or clinical progression in a high-risk population with AP (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02692391).