Hepatitis B core-related antigen predicts disease progression and hepatocellular carcinoma in hepatitis B e antigen-negative chronic hepatitis B patients

Hepatitis B core-related antigen as a predictive biomarker for recurrence in primary hepatocellular carcinoma: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common malignancies, with high recurrence rates after treatment. Identifying reliable biomarkers for predicting recurrence is essential for improving patient outcomes. Hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) has shown potential as a predictive marker for HCC recurrence.

AIM

To evaluate the association between HBcrAg levels and the risk of HCC recurrence.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted following PRISMA guidelines. PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library were searched without restrictions on date or language. Observational studies reporting hazard ratios (HRs) for HBcrAg as a predictor of HCC recurrence were included. Data extraction and quality assessment were performed independently by two reviewers. Statistical analyses used a random-effects model to account for heterogeneity (I² ≥ 50%), and sensitivity analysis was performed to ensure the robustness of the results.

RESULTS

A total of 1339 articles were initially identified, and 17 studies were included in the final meta-analysis after screening. The pooled analysis showed a significant association between elevated HBcrAg levels and HCC recurrence (HR = 4.42, 95% confidence interval: 3.43-5.41) with substantial heterogeneity (I² = 92.6%). Subgroup analysis revealed higher pooled HRs in studies with ≥ 500 participants (HR = 4.18) and HBcrAg cut-offs ≥ 4.0 LogU/mL (HR = 5.29). Studies with ≥ 10 years of follow-up showed a lower HR (2.89) compared to those with < 10 years (3.27). Patients treated with nucleos(t)ide analogs had a pooled HR of 1.98, while those without nucleos(t)ide analog had a higher HR of 3.87. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the results, with no significant publication bias detected.

CONCLUSION

This meta-analysis provides strong evidence that elevated HBcrAg levels are associated with an increased risk of HCC recurrence. HBcrAg may serve as a valuable biomarker for predicting recurrence, aiding personalized management and surveillance strategies for HCC patients.

Predictive model for neonatal HBV infection risk in infants of HBV-infected mothers in China: an observational study

Objective

In China, vertical transmission is the primary route of hepatitis B virus (HBV) transmission from mothers to their children. This study aimed to develop a predictive model for assessing the risk of HBV infection in newborns born to mothers with HBV infection. Additionally, the model was validated across subgroups based on child stage, gender, and race to facilitate the early identification of high-risk newborns and the development of personalized preventive measures.

Methods

We collected medical records of 443 newborns whose mothers had a history of hepatitis B. We compared case characteristics between newborns with and without HBV infection and identified key factors using LASSO approach to construct a multivariate logistic regression prediction model. The model's performance was evaluated using the ROC curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. The stability of the predictions was further validated through 5-fold cross-validation. Finally, subgroup analyses were conducted based on sex, age, and race.

Results

We identified alanine aminotransferase, direct bilirubin, gamma-glutamyl transferase, HBsAg, and HBcAb as key factors for the prediction model. The model achieved an area under the ROC curve of 0.890 (95% CI: 0.831-0.949). The calibration curve and decision curve analysis confirmed the model's accuracy, and the 5-fold cross-validation reaffirmed its internal stability. The model also demonstrated robust validation across different age, gender, and race subgroups.

Conclusion

Our study developed a reliable predictive model for assessing the risk of HBV infection among newborns of HBV-infected mothers in China. The model performed well across various child stages, genders, and racial subgroups. This research provides a foundation for the early identification of newborns at high risk for HBV infection, thereby reducing the risk of neonatal HBV transmission and supporting the rationale for individualized precision treatment.

HBcrAg is associated with prognosis of hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma in patients after hepatectomy undergoing antiviral therapy

Serum hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) is considered a surrogate marker of the amount and activity of intrahepatic covalently closed circular DNA. This study aimed to explore the prognostic value of HBcrAg on patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after curative hepatectomy undergoing antiviral therapy (AVT). Data of 949 consecutive patients with HBV-related HCC undergoing curative resection between 2010 and 2013 were reviewed. Serum HBcrAg levels were measured at surgery (baseline) for all patients and at the time of 2 years postoperatively (on-treatment) for those without recurrence. Primary endpoint was tumor recurrence. High HBcrAg levels are associated with malignant phenotypes. HBcrAg independently affected both recurrence and overall survival (OS) in patients with negative hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg-, p = .007 and p = .042, respectively) but not in their positive HBeAg (HBeAg+) counterparts (p = .100 and p = .075, respectively). Patients with high baseline HBcrAg had higher late, but not early recurrence rates than those with low baseline HBcrAg levels, regardless of HBeAg status (HBeAg+: p = .307 for early, p = .001 for late; HBeAg-: p = .937 for early, p < .001 for late). On-treatment HBcrAg independently affected late recurrence in patients stratified by both cirrhosis and HBeAg (p < .001 for all). The predictive power of HBcrAg kinetics for late recurrence was better than that of the baseline and on-treatment HBcrAg. High HBcrAg levels during long-term AVT are associated with late recurrence of HCC after hepatectomy. Combining baseline and on-treatment HBcrAg might be valuable in identifying patients at a high risk of relapse and stratifying surveillance strategies postoperatively.

Observational pilot study of switching from entecavir to tenofovir alafenamide in patients with chronic hepatitis B

This study evaluated the long-term efficacy and safety of the widely used drugs entecavir (ETV) and tenofovir alafenamide (TAF), as well as the incidence of HCC.A nonrandomized, prospective, observational analysis included 77 patients with chronic hepatitis B who were assigned to continue ETV or switch TAF. After 240 weeks, the mean changes in serum hepatitis B surface antigen (- 0.365 ± 0.069 log IU/mL vs. 0.301 ± 0.039 log IU/mL, p = 0.39) and hepatitis B core-related antigen (- 0.215 ± 0.092 log IU/mL vs. - 0.195 ± 0.056 log IU/mL) were not significantly different between the ETV and TAF groups. There were also no differences between the two groups in estimated glomerular filtration rate (- 5.407 ± 1.660 vs. - 2.666 ± 1.52, p = 0.240), urinary β2-microglobulin β/creatinine (ETV: 2.330 ± 0.374 at baseline and 2.335 ± 0.257 at 240 weeks; TAF: 2.720 ± 0.073 and 2.123 ± 0.310, p = 0.996 and 0.455, respectively) or urinary N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase/creatinine (ETV: 0.040 ± 0.005 at baseline and 0.044 ± 0.004 at 240 weeks; TAF: 0.049 ± 0.005 and 0.053 ± 0.005, p = 0.642 and 0.684, respectively). Finally, no significant difference was found in the incidence of HCC between the ETV and TAF groups (log-rank test, p = 0.08). In conclusion, the long-term observation of this study demonstrated that ETV and TAF have comparable efficacy and safety.Clinical trial registration: UMIN000026465.

Differential HBV RNA and HBcrAg patterns in untreated patients with chronic hepatitis delta

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Serum HBV RNA and hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) levels have been proposed as useful biomarkers in the management of patients with HBV; however, their role in chronic hepatitis delta (CHD) is currently unknown.

METHODS

Consecutive untreated patients with CHD were enrolled in a cross-sectional study in three EU centers. Clinical and virological characteristics were collected. Serum HBV RNA and HBcrAg levels were quantified by an automated real-time investigational assay (Cobas® 6800, Roche Diagnostics, Pleasanton, Ca, USA) and by LUMIPULSE® G HBcrAg assay (Fujirebio Europe), respectively. In 18 patients with available liver biopsies, intrahepatic analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Overall, 240 patients with HDV were enrolled: median age 46 years, 62% male, 53% with cirrhosis, 57% nucleos(t)ide analogue treated, median ALT 70 U/L, median HBsAg 3.8 log10 IU/ml, 88% HBeAg negative, and median HDV RNA 4.9 log10 IU/ml. HBV RNA was positive (>10 copies/ml) in only 8% of patients (median 40 [13-82,000] copies/ml), whereas HBcrAg was ≥3 log10 U/ml in 77% (median 4.2 [3.0-8.0] log10 U/ml). By combining these biomarkers, three categories were identified: 23% double negative (HBV RNA/HBcrAg), 9% double positive (HBV RNA/HBcrAg) and 68% HBV RNA negative/HBcrAg positive. HBV RNA levels positively correlated with male sex and detectable HBV DNA, while positive HBcrAg correlated with higher HBsAg levels. Double-positive patients were younger, non-European, with elevated ALT and HDV RNA levels and detectable HBV DNA. Intrahepatic HDV RNA and HBV RNA were positive in most samples, while intrahepatic levels of covalently closed circular DNA were low.

CONCLUSIONS

In untreated CHD, most patients had undetectable HBV RNA but quantifiable HBcrAg ("divergent pattern") in the absence of HBeAg. Additional studies aiming to unravel the molecular mechanisms underlying these findings are warranted.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Serum HBV RNA and HBcrAg (hepatitis B core-related antigen) are promising biomarkers of the transcriptional activity of covalently closed circular DNA in chronic HBV infection; however, their role in patients with HBV-HDV coinfection is unknown. At variance with what is commonly observed in HBV-monoinfected patients, HBV RNA was undetectable and HBcrAg detectable in the serum of most patients with HDV ("divergent pattern"). The understanding of the viral interplay between HBV and HDV is crucial to dissect the pathogenic mechanisms associated with the distinct phenotypes of patients with HDV.

Role of hepatitis B core-related antigen in predicting the occurrence and recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B: A systemic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The purpose of the current study was to investigate the predictive value of hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) on the occurrence and recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB).

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science from database inception to April 6, 2023. Pooled hazard ratio (HR) or odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated for the occurrence and recurrence of HCC.

RESULTS

Of the 464 articles considered, 18 articles recruiting 10 320 patients were included. The pooled results showed that high serum HBcrAg level was an independent risk factor for the occurrence of HCC in CHB patients (adjusted HR = 3.12, 95% CI: 2.40-4.06, P < 0.001, I2 = 43.2%, P = 0.043; OR = 5.65, 95% CI: 3.44-5.82, P < 0.001, I2 = 0.00%, P = 0.42). Further subgroup analysis demonstrated that the predictive ability of HBcrAg for the occurrence of HCC is not influenced by the hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) status or the use of nucleoside/nucleotide analogs (NAs). In addition, our meta-analysis also suggests that HBcrAg is a predictor of HCC recurrence (adjusted HR = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.26-2.32, P < 0.001, I2 = 7.89%, P = 0.031).

CONCLUSIONS

For patients with CHB, serum HBcrAg may be a potential predictive factor for the occurrence of HCC, regardless of HBeAg status or NA treatment. It may also serve as a novel prognostic biomarker for the recurrence of HCC. More studies are needed to confirm our conclusions.

Two Concepts of Hepatitis B Core-Related Antigen Assay: A Highly Sensitive and Rapid Assay or an Effective Tool for Widespread Screening

Hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) reflects the activity of intrahepatic covalently closed circular DNA. HBcrAg can be detected even in chronic hepatitis B patients in whom serum HBV DNA or hepatitis B surface antigen is undetectable. The HBcrAg measurement system was developed based on two concepts. One is a fully-automated and highly-sensitive HBcrAg assay (iTACT-HBcrAg) and the other is a point-of-care testing (POCT) that can be used in in resource-limited areas. iTACT-HBcrAg is an alternative to HBV DNA for monitoring HBV reactivation and predicting the development of hepatocellular carcinoma. This validated biomarker is available in routine clinical practice in Japan. Currently, international guidelines for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission recommend anti-HBV prophylaxis for pregnant women with high viral loads. However, over 95% of HBV-infected individuals live in countries where HBV DNA quantification is widely unavailable. Given this situation, a rapid and simple HBcrAg assay for POCT would be highly effective. Long-term anti-HBV therapy may have potential side effects and appropriate treatment should be provided to eligible patients. Therefore, a simple method of determining the indication for anti-HBV treatment would be ideal. This review provides up-to-date information regarding the clinical value of HBcrAg in HBV management, based on iTACT-HBcrAg or POCT.

Clinical Significance and Remaining Issues of Anti-HBc Antibody and HBV Core-Related Antigen

Currently, hepatitis B virus (HBV) core antibody (anti-HBc antibody) and HBV core-related antigen (HBcrAg) are widely used as serum markers for diagnosis based on the HBV core region. This review focused on anti-HBc antibodies and HBcrAg and aimed to summarize the clinical significance of currently used assay systems and the issues involved. While anti-HBc is very significant for clinical diagnosis, the clinical significance of quantitative assay of anti-HBc antibody has been reevaluated with improvements in diagnostic performance, including its association with clinical stage and prediction of carcinogenesis and reactivation. In addition, concerning the new HBcrAg, a high-sensitivity assay method has recently been established, and its diagnostic significance, including the prediction of reactivation, is being reevaluated. On the other hand, the quantitative level of anti-HBc antibody expressed in different units among assay systems complicates the interpretation of the results. However, it is difficult to standardize assay systems as they vary in advantages, and caution is needed in interpreting the assay results. In conclusion, with the development of highly sensitive HBcrAg and anti-HBc antibody, a rapid and sensitive detection assay system has been developed and used in clinical practice. In the future, it is hoped that a global standard will be created based on the many clinical findings.

Prediction model of hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma in patients receiving antiviral therapy

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, which ultimately leads to liver cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), remains a significant disease burden worldwide. Despite the use of antiviral therapy (AVT) using oral nucleos(t)ide analogs (NUCs) with high genetic barriers, the risk of HCC development cannot be completely eliminated. Therefore, bi-annual surveillance of HCC using abdominal ultrasonography with or without tumor markers is recommended for at-risk populations. For a more precise assessment of future HCC risk at the individual level, many HCC prediction models have been proposed in the era of potent AVT with promising results. It allows prognostication according to the risk of HCC development, for example, low-vs. intermediate-vs. high-risk groups. Most of these models have the advantage of high negative predictive values for HCC development, allowing exemption from biannual HCC screening. Recently, non-invasive surrogate markers for liver fibrosis, such as vibration-controlled transient elastography, have been introduced as integral components of the equations, providing better predictive performance in general. Furthermore, beyond the conventional statistical methods that primarily depend on multi-variable Cox regression analyses based on the previous literature, newer techniques using artificial intelligence have also been applied in the design of HCC prediction models. Here, we aimed to review the HCC risk prediction models that were developed in the era of potent AVT and validated among independent cohorts to address the clinical unmet needs, as well as comment on future direction to establish the individual HCC risk more precisely.

Hepatitis B core-related antigen: A novel and promising surrogate biomarker to guide anti-hepatitis B virus therapy

The current requirement for biomarkers to detect hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is polarized. One is a fully-automated and highly sensitive measurement system; the other is a simple system for point-of-care testing (POCT) in resource-limited areas. Hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) reflects intrahepatic covalently closed circular DNA and serum HBV DNA. Even in patients with undetectable serum HBV DNA or HBsAg loss, HBcrAg may remain detectable. Decreased HBcrAg levels are associated with reduction of the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B. Recently, a fully-automated, novel high-sensitivity HBcrAg assay (iTACT-HBcrAg, cut-off value: 2.1 logIU/mL) has been developed. This attractive assay has been released in Japan very recently. iTACT-HBcrAg can be useful for monitoring HBV reactivation and prediction of HCC occurrence, as an alternative to HBV DNA. Moreover, monitoring HBcrAg may be suitable for determining the therapeutic effectiveness of approved drugs and novel drugs under development. Presently, international guidelines recommend anti-HBV prophylaxis for pregnant women with high viral loads to prevent mother-to-child transmission of HBV. However, >95% of HBV-infected individuals live in countries where HBV DNA quantification is not available. Worldwide elimination of HBV needs the scaling-up of examination and medication services in resource-limited areas. Based on this situation, a rapid and easy HBcrAg assay as a POCT is valuable. This review provides the latest information regarding the clinical use of a new surrogate marker, HBcrAg, in HBV management, based on iTACT-HBcrAg or POCT, and introduces novel agents targeting HBV RNA/protein.

A longitudinal study to detect hepatitis B surface and core-related antigens in chronic hepatitis B patients with hepatitis B surface antigen seroclearance using highly sensitive assays

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to evaluate the usefulness of two novel assays, namely the iTACT-hepatitis B surface antigen (iTACT-HBsAg) and iTACT-hepatitis B core-related antigen (iTACT-HBcrAg) assays, in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with HBsAg seroclearance (SC) documented by standard assays.

METHODS

HBsAg and HBcrAg were measured by the two iTACT-assays in 556 serial sera collected from 96 CHB patients at 7 different time points spanning from 5 years before to 10 years after SC and 120 HBsAg-negative, anti-HBc-positive individuals. As controls, 60 seronegative individuals, who were negative for HBsAg, anti-HBc and anti-HBs, were tested.

RESULTS

Using the iTACT-assays, HBsAg was detectable in 154/418 (36.8%) samples collected after SC. HBcrAg was detectable in 78.3% and 65.9% of samples collected before and after SC, respectively. The detectability rates of both HBsAg and HBcrAg progressively decreased over time after SC. At 10 years after SC, 20.4% and 64.5% of the patients still had detectable HBsAg and HBcrAg, respectively. 66 (71%) patients had detectable HBsAg and/or HBcrAg. Among the 120 HBsAg-negative, anti-HBc-positive individuals, 11 (9.2%) and 4 (3.3%) had detectable HBsAg and HBcrAg respectively. Both HBsAg and HBcrAg were undetectable in the controls.

CONCLUSION

The iTACT assays detected a low level of HBsAg and/or HBcrAg in >70% of patients even at 10 years after SC, suggesting that CHB patients with SC still harbour a low level of HBV protein expression. The clinical significance of detectable viral proteins after SC with regard to disease progression and HBV reactivation deserves further investigations.

Risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma at baseline and 1 year after initiation of nucleos(t)ide analog therapy for chronic hepatitis B

Nucleos(t)ide analogs (NAs) cannot completely suppress the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This study aimed to identify the risk factors for HCC development in naïve CHB patients treated with current NA. Patients receiving NA (n = 905) were recruited retrospectively from the 17 hospitals of the Japanese Red Cross Liver Study Group. All treatment-naïve patients had been receiving current NA continuously for more than 1 year until the end of the follow-up. We analyzed the accuracy of predictive risk score using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve. The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score was significantly improved by NA therapy (-0.171 ± 0.396; p < 0.001 at Week 48). A total of 72 (8.0%) patients developed HCC over a median follow-up of 6.2 (1.03-15.7) years. An independent predictive factor of HCC development was older age, cirrhosis, lower platelet counts at baseline and ALBI score, and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) at 1 year after NA therapy according to multivariate analysis. The accuracy was assessed using the PAGE-B, mPAGE-B, aMAP, APA-B, and REAL-B scores that included these factors. Discrimination was generally acceptable for these models. aMAP and REAL-B demonstrated high discrimination with 0.866/0.862 and 0.833/0.859 for 3- and 5-year prediction from the status of 1 year after NA therapy, respectively. Baseline age and platelet count, as well as ALBI and AFP one year after NA, were useful for stratifying carcinogenesis risk. The aMAP and REAL-B scores were validated with high accuracy in Japanese CHB patients.

HBcrAg Predicts Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Chronic B Hepatitis Related Liver Cirrhosis Patients Undergoing Long-Term Effective Anti-Viral

Hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) is a predictor of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. Studies on anti-viral therapy have shown that the use of NUC therapy in HBV patients could reduce the incidence of HCC. However, the incidence of HCC continues to increase after long-term anti-viral therapy. The relationship between HBcrAg and HCC development in CHB-related liver cirrhosis (LC) patients undergoing long-term anti-viral therapy is still unclear. This study enrolled 1108 treatment-naïve CHB patients diagnosed with HBV-related LC receiving NUC therapy from April 1999 to February 2015. The baseline biomarkers, disease history, and following results were collected by the hospital. Among the 1108 patients, 219 developed HCC within a median follow-up period of 6.85 years. A multivariable Cox regression model was used, with adjustment for age, gender, FIB-4, DM, and HBsAg-HQ. The adjusted hazard ratios for the HBcrAg tertile levels were 1.70 (95%CI: 1.21, 2.39) and 2.14 (95%CI: 1.50, 3.05) for levels 3.4-4.9 and >4.9 logU/mL, respectively, compared with levels ≤3.4. The effect of the HBcrAg level on HCC incidence was found to be significantly modified by HBsAg-HQ, where lower HBsAg-HQ (≤ 3) values were associated with a significantly higher risk, but HBsAg-HQ levels >3 were not. Our results highlight that, after adjustment for potential confounding factors, patients with CHB-related LC and higher HBcrAg levels are at significant risk for HCC development, even while undergoing long-term effective anti-viral therapy. The HBcrAg level is therefore an independent risk factor for HCC development, especially for patients with HBsAg-HQ levels <3.

Non-Achievement of Alanine Aminotransferase Normalization Associated with the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma during Nucleos(t)ide Analogue Therapies: A Multicenter Retrospective Study

Patients with a chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection who are treated with nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) are still at risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and it has been clinically questioned whether patients with a high risk of HCC can be identified efficiently. We aimed to clarify the risk factors associated with the development of HCC during NA therapies. A total of 611 chronically HBV-infected patients without a history of HCC, who were treated with NAs for more than 6 months (median 72 months), from 2000 to 2021, were included from 16 hospitals in the Tohoku district in Japan. Incidences of HCC occurrence were analyzed with clinical factors, including on-treatment responses. Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) normalization, based on the criteria of three guidelines, was analyzed with other parameters, including the age−male−ALBI−platelets (aMAP) risk score. During the observation period, 48 patients developed HCC, and the cumulative HCC incidence was 10.6% at 10 years. Non-achievement of ALT normalization at 1 year of therapy was mostly associated with HCC development when ALT ≤ 30 U/L was used as the cut-off (cumulative incidence, 19.9% vs. 5.3% at 10 years, p < 0.001). The effectiveness of the aMAP risk score at the start of treatment was validated in this cohort. A combination of an aMAP risk score ≥ 50 and non-achievement of ALT normalization could stratify the risk of HCC significantly, and notably, there was no HCC development in 103 patients without these 2 factors. In conclusion, non-achievement of ALT normalization (≤30 U/L) at 1 year might be useful in predicting HCC during NA therapies and, in combination with the aMAP risk score, could stratify the risk more precisely.

Validation of PH and Varices Risk Scores for Prediction of High-Risk Esophageal Varix and Bleeding in Patients with B-Viral Cirrhosis

Esophageal varices (EVs) can be accurately predicted using PH and varices risk scores. We aimed to validate their prognostic performances. Methods: We enrolled patients with B-viral cirrhosis as the training cohort (n = 503). Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) for HEV were calculated for PH (=-5.953 + 0.188 × liver stiffness (LS) + 1.583 × sex (1:male/0:female) + 26.705 × spleen diameter/platelet count ratio) and varices (=-4.364 + 0.538 × spleen diameter -0.049 × platelet count -0.044 × LS + 0.001 × LS × platelet count) risk scores, and compared to LSPS (=LS × spleen diameter/platelet count). An independent cohort was recruited for further validation (n = 222). In the training cohort, the varices risk score showed the highest AUROC (0.926), followed by the PH risk score (0.924) and LSPS (0.924), but without any statistically significant differences. For varices risk scores ≤-1.70 and ≥1.48, a 95.0% negative predictive value (NPV) and 91.2% positive predictive value (PPV) were observed, respectively. At PH risk scores ≤2.25 and ≥7.71, 95.0% NPV and 90.0% PPV were observed, respectively. At LSPS ≤1.73 and ≥13.9, 95.3% NPV and 95.0% PPV were observed, respectively. The EV bleeding (EVB) risk during follow-up increased stepwise and significantly when stratified by PH, varices risk scores, and LSPS (all p < 0.001). In the validation cohort, NPVs were generally similar when stratified by PH (88.2%), varices risk scores (93.2%), and LSPS (88.9%); however, corresponding PPVs were suboptimal. PH and variceal risk scores are reliable for predicting HEV and future EVB. Patients with PH and varices risk scores ≤2.25 and ≤-1.70, respectively, may avoid endoscopy safely. For convenience, LSPS might be a good alternative, with comparable prognostic performance to these two models.

The association between hepatocarcinogenesis and intracellular alterations due to hepatitis B virus infection

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a worldwide health problem leading to severe liver dysfunction, including liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Although current antiviral therapies for chronic HBV infection have been improved and can lead to a strong suppression of viral replication, it is difficult to completely eliminate the virus with these therapies once chronic HBV infection is established in the host. Furthermore, chronic HBV infection alters intracellular metabolism and signalling pathways, resulting in the activation of carcinogenesis in the liver. HBV produces four viral proteins: hepatitis B surface-, hepatitis B core-, hepatitis B x protein, and polymerase; each plays an important role in HBV replication and the intracellular signalling pathways associated with hepatocarcinogenesis. In vitro and in vivo experimental models for analyzing HBV infection and replication have been established, and gene expression analyses using microarrays or next-generation sequencing have also been developed. Thus, it is possible to clarify the molecular mechanisms for intracellular alterations, such as endoplasmic reticulum stress, oxidative stress, and epigenetic modifications. In this review, the impact of HBV viral proteins and intracellular alterations in HBV-associated hepatocarcinogenesis are discussed.