Life expectancy estimates based on comorbidities and frailty to inform preventive care

New Paradigms for Bladder Cancer Management in Geriatrics

Bladder cancer exhibits significant heterogeneity, requiring a diverse range of treatment modalities tailored to the specific tumor stage. The risk of bladder cancer increases with age, as does the risk of more aggressive disease. In this narrative review, we will discuss the epidemiology and follow-up burden of bladder cancer in the elderly. We will also explore treatment regimens based on disease stage in the context of patient age.

External validation of a proprietary risk model for 1-year mortality in community-dwelling adults aged 65 years or older

OBJECTIVE

To examine the discrimination, calibration, and algorithmic fairness of the Epic End of Life Care Index (EOL-CI).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We assessed the EOL-CI's performance by estimating area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, and positive and negative predictive values in community-dwelling adults ≥65 years of age in a single health system in the Southeastern United States. Algorithmic fairness was examined by comparing the model's performance across sex, race, and ethnicity subgroups. Using a machine learning approach, we also explored local re-calibration of the EOL-CI considering additional information on past hospitalizations and frailty.

RESULTS

Among 215 731 patients (median age = 74 years, 57% female, 12% of Black race), 10% were classified as medium risk (15-44) and 3% as high risk (≥45) by the EOL-CI. The observed 1-year mortality rate was 3%. The EOL-CI had an AUC 0.82 for 1-year mortality, with a positive predictive value of 22%. Predictive performance was generally similar across sex and race subgroups, though the EOL-CI displayed better performance with increasing age and in older adults with 2 or more outpatient encounters in the past 24 months. Local re-calibration of the EOL-CI was required to provide absolute estimates of mortality risk, and calibration was further improved when the EOL-CI was augmented with data on inpatient hospitalizations and frailty.

DISCUSSION

The EOL-CI demonstrates reasonable discrimination, albeit with better performance in older adults and in those with greater health system contact.

CONCLUSION

Local refinement and calibration of the EOL-CI score is required to provide direct estimates of prognosis, with the goal of making the EOL-CI a more a valuable tool at the point of care for identifying patients who would benefit from targeted palliative care interventions and proactive care planning.

Managing Hypercholesterolemia in Adults Older Than 75 years Without a History of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease: An Expert Clinical Consensus From the National Lipid Association and the American Geriatrics Society

The risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease increases with advancing age. Elevated LDL-cholesterol and non-HDL-cholesterol levels remain predictive of incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular events among individuals older than 75 years. Risk prediction among older individuals is less certain because most current risk calculators lack specificity in those older than 75 years and do not adjust for co-morbidities, functional status, frailty, and cognition which significantly impact prognosis in this age group. Data on the benefits and risks of lowering LDL-cholesterol with statins in older patients without atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease are also limited since most primary prevention trials have included mostly younger patients. Available data suggest that statin therapy in older primary prevention patients may reduce atherosclerotic cardiovascular events and that benefits from lipid-lowering with statins outweigh potential risks such as statin-associated muscle symptoms and incident Type 2 diabetes mellitus. While some evidence suggests the possibility that statins may be associated with incident cognitive impairment in older adults, a preponderance of literature indicates neutral or even protective statin-related cognitive effects. Shared decision-making which is recommended for all patients when considering statin therapy is particularly important in older patients. Randomized clinical trial data evaluating the use of non-statin lipid-lowering therapy in older patients are sparse. Deprescribing of lipid-lowering agents may be appropriate for select patients older than 75 years with life-limiting diseases. Finally, a patient-centered approach should be taken when considering primary prevention strategies for older adults.

Managing hypercholesterolemia in adults older than 75 years without a history of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease: An Expert Clinical Consensus from the National Lipid Association and the American Geriatrics Society

The risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease increases with advancing age. Elevated low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol and non-high-density lipoprotein (non-HDL)-cholesterol levels remain predictive of incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular events among individuals older than 75 years. Risk prediction among older individuals is less certain because most current risk calculators lack specificity in those older than 75 years and do not adjust for co-morbidities, functional status, frailty, and cognition which significantly impact prognosis in this age group. Data on the benefits and risks of lowering LDL-cholesterol with statins in older patients without atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease are also limited since most primary prevention trials have included mostly younger patients. Available data suggest that statin therapy in older primary prevention patients may reduce atherosclerotic cardiovascular events and that benefits from lipid-lowering with statins outweigh potential risks such as statin-associated muscle symptoms and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. While some evidence suggests the possibility that statins may be associated with incident cognitive impairment in older adults, a preponderance of literature indicates neutral or even protective statin-related cognitive effects. Shared decision-making which is recommended for all patients when considering statin therapy is particularly important in older patients. Randomized clinical trial data evaluating the use of non-statin lipid-lowering therapy in older patients are sparse. Deprescribing of lipid-lowering agents may be appropriate for select patients older than 75 years with life-limiting diseases. Finally, a patient-centered approach should be taken when considering primary prevention strategies for older adults.

Frailty and Malnutrition in Surgical Outcomes of Elderly Breast Cancer Patients

INTRODUCTION

We evaluate the impact of frailty and malnutrition on breast cancer surgery outcomes in older adults using the ACS 5-factor modified frailty index (MFI) and Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (GLIM) definition.

METHODS

Single institution retrospective review of a prospective database of the older adult (>60 years old) breast cancer surgery patients (2000-2016); cases stratified into groups as per MFI (0-2) and GLIM. Characteristics, 90-day post-op events, and 5-year follow-up data were analyzed to report survival and complication outcomes.

RESULTS

Among 436 patients at diagnosis, 213 (48.9%) were >80 years old. 377 (86.5%) were alive at 5 years. 274 (62.8%) had MFI > 0, and 69 (15.8%) had malnutrition. Patients ≥ 80, MFI > 0, and PR-negative tumors had worse 5-year survival. There was no survival difference in patients >80 with/without malnutrition (HR = 1.01, p = 0.971), and there was no difference in mastectomy or lumpectomy (p = 0.560) between patients ≥ 80 or patients younger than 80; however, 94% of immediate reconstruction were in pts < 80. On multivariate regression, complications were associated with age < 80, readmission, MFI > 0, and history of HTN; serious complications were associated with age < 80, readmission, anticoagulation, and not receiving endocrine therapy.

CONCLUSION

MFI showed a significant predictive value for 5-year survival for patients ≥ 80 and should be part of the preoperative evaluation.

Life expectancy of patients with early gastric cancer who underwent curative gastrectomy: comparison with the general population

Despite long-term survival reports in early gastric cancer, comparative life expectancy data with the general population is scarce. This study aimed to estimate patients' life expectancy and analyze disparities between early gastric cancer patients and the general population. Patients with stage 1 gastric cancer who underwent curative gastrectomy at Asan Medical Center were enrolled. Survival status was tracked via national health insurance records. Life expectancy was compared with general population data from the Korean Statistical Information Service database. The cohort comprised 8,637 patients (64.7% men, 17.3% aged 70+). Approximately 20% of patients underwent total gastrectomy. Life expectancy was favorable among women. Across all age groups, women's life expectancy generally exceeded 80 years. Male patients showed a reduced life expectancy, typically 4-10 years shorter than their female counterparts. The average life expectancy of male patients aged over 80 years who underwent total gastrectomy was about 5 years, whereas that of their female counterparts was approximately 7 years. Female patients undergoing distal gastrectomy did not demonstrate a statistically significant variance in life expectancy compared to the general population. This study provided comprehensive life expectancy data, organized by age, sex, and type of gastrectomy in a large stage 1 gastric cancer cohort. Our findings are expected to alleviate uncertainties and anxieties for individuals diagnosed with early gastric cancer.

Frailty and Renal Cell Carcinoma: Integration of Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment into Shared Decision-making

CONTEXT

Frailty, a geriatric syndrome characterized by decreased resilience and physiological reserve, impacts the prognosis and management of older adults significantly, particularly in the context of surgical and oncological care.

OBJECTIVE

To provide an overview of frailty assessment in the management of older patients with a renal mass/renal cell carcinoma (RCC), focusing on its implications for diagnostic workup, treatment decisions, and clinical outcomes.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

A narrative review of the literature was conducted, focusing on frailty definitions, assessment tools, and their application in geriatric oncology, applied to the field of RCC. Relevant studies addressing the prognostic value of frailty, its impact on treatment outcomes, and potential interventions were summarized.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

Frailty is a poor prognostic factor and can influence decision-making in the management of both localized and metastatic RCC. Screening tools such as the Geriatric Screening Tool 8 (G8) and the Mini-COG test can aid clinicians to select older patients (ie, aged ≥65 yr) for a further comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) performed by dedicated geriatricians. The CGA provides insights to risk stratify patients and guide subsequent treatment pathways. As such, the involvement of geriatricians in multidisciplinary tumor boards emerges as an essential priority to address the complex needs of frail patients and optimize clinical outcomes. Herein, we propose a dedicated care pathway as a first key step to implement frailty assessment in clinical practice and research for RCC.

CONCLUSIONS

Frailty has emerged as a crucial factor influencing the management and outcomes of older patients with RCC. Involvement of geriatricians in diagnostic and therapeutic pathways represents a pragmatic approach to screen and assess frailty, fostering individualized treatment decisions according to holistic patient risk stratification.

PATIENT SUMMARY

Frailty, a decline in resilience and physiological reserve, influences treatment decisions and outcomes in elderly patients with renal cell carcinoma, guiding personalized care. In this review, we focused on pragmatic strategies to screen patients with a renal mass suspected for renal cell carcinoma, who are older than 65 yr, for frailty and on personalized management algorithms integrating geriatric input beyond patient- and tumor-related factors.

Outcomes for centenarian patients admitted with orthopaedic trauma

INTRODUCTION

The United Kingdom (UK) and world's population is aging with patients living longer, often with many co-morbidities. It is expected that patients of extreme old age would have poor outcomes following trauma; however, this assumption is not clearly evidenced. This study aims to present the outcomes of patients aged 100 or older admitted to a single hospital trust following admission for orthopaedic trauma.

METHOD

A prospective cohort of patients aged 100 years and over admitted to the trauma and orthopaedic departments of two hospitals within the same trust between 2008 and 2022 was reviewed. Age was median 101 years (100-106 years). Outcome measures were length of stay, survival, complications and change in accommodation.

RESULTS

80 patients met the inclusion criteria (71female, 9 male). Mean age at discharge was 102.5 years with survival mean 4.2 years. 2 patients with peri-prosthetic fracture survived a further 5 years. Mean length of stay was 17 days. 57 patients returned to their original place of residence. 72 patients (90 %) survived the acute hospital admission.

CONCLUSION

Survival rates for patients aged over 100 years were high and most returned to the previous place of residence. This study supports the surgical management of trauma and helps inform patients and families expectations for mortality risk.

AI Survival Prediction Modeling: The Importance of Considering Treatments and Changes in Health Status over Time

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Deep learning (DL)-based models for predicting the survival of patients with local stages of breast cancer only use time-fixed covariates, i.e., patient and cancer data at the time of diagnosis. These predictions are inherently error-prone because they do not consider time-varying events that occur after initial diagnosis. Our objective is to improve the predictive modeling of survival of patients with localized breast cancer to consider both time-fixed and time-varying events; thus, we take into account the progression of a patient's health status over time.

METHODS

We extended four DL-based predictive survival models (DeepSurv, DeepHit, Nnet-survival, and Cox-Time) that deal with right-censored time-to-event data to consider not only a patient's time-fixed covariates (patient and cancer data at diagnosis) but also a patient's time-varying covariates (e.g., treatments, comorbidities, progressive age, frailty index, adverse events from treatment). We utilized, as our study data, the SEER-Medicare linked dataset from 1991 to 2016 to study a population of women diagnosed with stage I-III breast cancer (BC) enrolled in Medicare at 65 years or older as qualified by age. We delineated time-fixed variables recorded at the time of diagnosis, including age, race, marital status, breast cancer stage, tumor grade, laterality, estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), and human epidermal receptor 2 (HER2) status, and comorbidity index. We analyzed six distinct prognostic categories, cancer stages I-III BC, and each stage's ER/PR+ or ER/PR- status. At each visit, we delineated the time-varying covariates of administered treatments, induced adverse events, comorbidity index, and age. We predicted the survival of three hypothetical patients to demonstrate the model's utility.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcomes of the modeling were the measures of the model's prediction error, as measured by the concordance index, the most commonly applied evaluation metric in survival analysis, and the integrated Brier score, a metric of the model's discrimination and calibration.

RESULTS

The proposed extended patients' covariates that include both time-fixed and time-varying covariates significantly improved the deep learning models' prediction error and the discrimination and calibration of a model's estimates. The prediction of the four DL models using time-fixed covariates in six different prognostic categories all resulted in approximately a 30% error in all six categories. When applying the proposed extension to include time-varying covariates, the accuracy of all four predictive models improved significantly, with the error decreasing to approximately 10%. The models' predictive accuracy was independent of the differing published survival predictions from time-fixed covariates in the six prognostic categories. We demonstrate the utility of the model in three hypothetical patients with unique patient, cancer, and treatment variables. The model predicted survival based on the patient's individual time-fixed and time-varying features, which varied considerably from Social Security age-based, and stage and race-based breast cancer survival predictions.

CONCLUSIONS

The predictive modeling of the survival of patients with early-stage breast cancer using DL models has a prediction error of around 30% when considering only time-fixed covariates at the time of diagnosis and decreases to values under 10% when time-varying covariates are added as input to the models, regardless of the prognostic category of the patient groups. These models can be used to predict individual patients' survival probabilities based on their unique repertoire of time-fixed and time-varying features. They will provide guidance for patients and their caregivers to assist in decision making.

Nutrition for the older adult - Current concepts. Report from an ESPEN symposium

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In view of the global demographic shift, a scientific symposium was organised by the European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism (ESPEN) to address nutrition-related challenges of the older population and provide an overview of the current state of knowledge.

METHODS

Eighteen nutrition-related issues of the ageing global society were presented by international experts during the symposium and summarised in this report.

RESULTS

Anorexia of ageing, dysphagia, malnutrition, frailty, sarcopenia, sarcopenic obesity, and the metabolic syndrome were highlighted as major nutrition-related geriatric syndromes. Great progress has been made in recent years through standardised definitions of some but not all syndromes. Regarding malnutrition, the GLIM approach has shown to be suitable also in older adults, justifying its continuous implementation. For anorexia of ageing, a consensus definition is still required. Intervention approaches should be integrated and person-centered with the aim of optimizing intrinsic capacity and maintaining functional capacity. Landmark studies like EFFORT and FINGER have impressively documented the potential of individualised and multifactorial interventions for functional and health benefits. Combining nutritional intervention with physical training seems particularly important whereas restrictive diets and drug treatment should generally be used with caution because of undesirable risks. Obesity management in older adults should take into account the risk of promoting sarcopenia.

CONCLUSIONS

In the future, even more individualised approaches like precision nutrition may enable better nutritional care. Meanwhile all stakeholders should focus on a better implementation of currently available strategies and work closely together to improve nutritional care for older adults.

Frailty and all-cause and cancer-related mortality in cancer patients: A prospective cohort study

PURPOSE

To evaluate the associations between frailty and all-cause and cancer-related mortality. Additionally, the objective is to compare the magnitude of these associations between older adults and younger adults.

METHODS

We gathered baseline data from NHANES (1999-2018) and developed a cumulative index consisting of 39 items to evaluate frailty. The National Death Index database was utilized to track the survival status of individuals. The Cox regression model was employed to estimate the associations between frailty status and all-cause and cancer-related mortality.

RESULTS

Ultimately, 3398 cancer patients were included in the analysis, comprising 910 younger adults and 2488 older adults. Compared to non-frail patients, the elevated all-cause and cancer-related mortality among pre-frail patients was not statistically significant (HRs = 1.312, 95%CI: 0.956-1.800, P = 0.092; HRs = 1.462, 0.811-2.635, P = 0.207). However, a significant elevation of both all-cause and cancer-related mortality risk was observed among frail patients (HRs = 2.213, 1.617-3.030, P < 0.001; HRs = 2.463, 95%CI = 1.370-4.429, P = 0.003). Frailty individuals demonstrated a more pronounced association with the prediction of all-cause mortality in younger (HRs = 2.230, 1.073-4.634, P = 0.032) than in older adults (HRs = 2.090, 1.475-2.960, P < 0.001). Sensitivity analysis consistently revealed robust results. RCS plots suggested a progressively escalating dose-response correlation between frailty and both all-cause and cancer-related mortality risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Pre-frailty did not result in an increase in mortality risks compared to non-frailty. However, frailty caused a higher all-cause and cancer-related mortality risk than non-frailty. Identifying those at risk and implementing targeted interventions may contribute to extending healthy life expectancy, regardless of age.

Updated Markov Model to Determine Optimal Management Strategy for Patients with Paraesophageal Hernia and Symptoms, Cameron Ulcer, or Comorbid Conditions

BACKGROUND

The current paradigm of watchful waiting (WW) in people 65 years or older with an asymptomatic paraesophageal hernia (PEH) is based on a now 20-year-old Markov analysis. Recently, we have shown that elective laparoscopic hernia repair (ELHR) provides an increase in life-years (L-Ys) compared with WW in most healthy patients aged 40 to 90 years. However, elderly patients often have comorbid conditions and may have complications from their PEH such as Cameron lesions. The aim of this study was to determine the optimal strategy, ELHR or WW, in these patients.

STUDY DESIGN

A Markov model with updated variables was used to compare L-Ys gained with ELHR vs WW in hypothetical people with any type of PEH and symptoms, Cameron lesions, and/or comorbid conditions.

RESULTS

In men and women aged 40 to 90 years with PEH-related symptoms and/or Cameron lesions, ELHR led to an increase in L-Ys over WW. The presence of comorbid conditions impacted life expectancy overall, but ELHR remained the preferred approach in all but 90-year-old patients with symptoms but no Cameron lesions.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a Markov model with updated values for key variables associated with management options for patients with a PEH, we showed that life expectancy was improved with ELHR in most men and women aged 40 to 90 years, particularly in the presence of symptoms and/or Cameron lesions. Comorbid conditions increase the risk for surgery, but ELHR remained the preferred strategy in the majority of symptomatic patients. This model can be used to provide individualized management guidance for patients with a PEH.

Comparison of Claims-Based Frailty Indices in U.S. Veterans 65 and Older for Prediction of Long-Term Institutionalization and Mortality

BACKGROUND

Frailty is increasingly recognized as a useful measure of vulnerability in older adults. Multiple claims-based frailty indices (CFIs) can readily identify individuals with frailty, but whether 1 CFI improves prediction over another is unknown. We sought to assess the ability of 5 distinct CFIs to predict long-term institutionalization (LTI) and mortality in older Veterans.

METHODS

Retrospective study conducted in U.S. Veterans ≥65 years without prior LTI or hospice use in 2014. Five CFIs were compared: Kim, Orkaby (Veteran Affairs Frailty Index [VAFI]), Segal, Figueroa, and the JEN-FI, grounded in different theories of frailty: Rockwood cumulative deficit (Kim and VAFI), Fried physical phenotype (Segal), or expert opinion (Figueroa and JFI). The prevalence of frailty according to each CFI was compared. CFI performance for the coprimary outcomes of any LTI or mortality from 2015 to 2017 was examined. Because Segal and Kim include age, sex, or prior utilization, these variables were added to regression models to compare all 5 CFIs. Logistic regression was used to calculate model discrimination and calibration for both outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 3 million Veterans were included (mean age 75, 98% male participants, 80% White, and 9% Black). Frailty was identified for between 6.8% and 25.7% of the cohort with 2.6% identified as frail by all 5 CFIs. There was no meaningful difference between CFIs in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for LTI (0.78-0.80) or mortality (0.77-0.79).

CONCLUSIONS

Based on different frailty constructs, and identifying different subsets of the population, all 5 CFIs similarly predicted LTI or death, suggesting each could be used for prediction or analytics.

Preoperative frailty and adverse outcomes following coronary artery bypass grafting surgery in US veterans

BACKGROUND

Contemporary guidelines emphasize the value of incorporating frailty into clinical decision-making regarding revascularization strategies for coronary artery disease. Yet, there are limited data describing the association between frailty and longer-term mortality among coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) patients.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study (2016-2020, 40 VA medical centers) of US veterans nationwide that underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Frailty was quantified by the Veterans Administration Frailty Index (VA-FI), which applies the cumulative deficit method to render a proportion of 30 pertinent diagnosis codes. Patients were classified as non-frail (VA-FI ≤ 0.1), pre-frail (0.1 < VA-FI ≤ 0.2), or frail (VA-FI > 0.2). We used Cox proportional hazards models to ascertain the association of frailty with all-cause mortality. Our primary study outcome was 5-year all-cause mortality; the co-primary outcome was days alive and out of the hospital within the first postoperative year.

RESULTS

There were 13,554 CABG patients (median 69 years, 79% White, 1.5% women). The mean pre-operative VA-FI was 0.21 (SD: 0.11); 31% were pre-frail (VA-FI: 0.17) and 47% were frail (VA-FI: 0.31). Frail patients were older and had higher co-morbidity burdens than pre-frail and non-frail patients. Compared with non-frail patients (13.0% [11.4, 14.7]), there was a significant association between frail and pre-frail patients and increased cumulative 5-year all-cause mortality (frail: 24.8% [23.3, 26.1]; HR: 1.75 [95% CI 1.54, 2.00]; pre-frail 16.8% [95% CI 15.3, 18.4]; HR 1.2 [1.08,1.34]). Compared with non-frail patients (mean 362[SD 12]), pre-frail (mean 361 [SD 14]; p < 0.01) and frail patients (mean 358[SD 18]; p < 0.01) spent fewer days alive and out of the hospital in the first postoperative year.

CONCLUSIONS

Pre-frailty and frailty were prevalent among US veterans undergoing CABG and associated with worse mid-term outcomes. Given the high prevalence of frailty with attendant adverse outcomes, there may be an opportunity to improve outcomes by identifying and mitigating frailty before surgery.

COVID-19 infection and decline in outdoor activities associated with depression in older adults: A multicenter study in Vietnam

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has caused a serious global communicable disease burden. Although COVID-19 and its policy responses have significantly influenced older adults, the impact of COVID-19 on depression in the older population is not fully understood. We aimed to investigate whether a history of COVID-19 infection and a decline in outdoor activities during the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with depression among older adults in Vietnam.

METHODS

This multicenter cross-sectional study was conducted on 1,004 outpatients (aged ≥60 years; mean age 70.8 ± 7.3 years; men, 33.0%) visiting three hospitals for a comprehensive geriatric assessment between November 2021 and July 2022. Depression over the past week was evaluated using the 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale. History of COVID-19 infection and decline in outdoor activities were included as binary variables. We adjusted these two factors with sociodemographic and geriatric variables and comorbidities using a logistic regression analysis in separate models.

RESULTS

A total of 156 participants (15.5%) experienced depression. The proportion of mild, moderate, and severe depressive symptoms was 14.1%, 44.9%, and 41.0%, respectively. In the multivariate model, decline in outdoor activities (odds ratio [OR] 17.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] 9.15-32.2, p <0.001) and history of COVID-19 infection (OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.28-3.84, p = 0.004) were associated with depression. Additionally, we found that age ≥ 75 years, female sex, being underweight, limitations in functional status, poor sleep quality, and stroke were associated with depression. Of the associated factors, decline in outdoor activities had a moderate strength of association with depression (r = 0.419), while each of the remaining factors had a weak strength of association.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 had a direct and indirect impact on depression in older adults, reflecting an association between both a history of COVID-19 infection and a decline in outdoor activities during the COVID-19 pandemic and depression in the older population.

Medium and long-term prognosis in hospitalised older adults with multimorbidity. A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Data about long-term prognosis after hospitalisation of elderly multimorbid patients remains scarce.

OBJECTIVES

Evaluate medium and long-term prognosis in hospitalised patients older than 75 years of age with multimorbidity. Explore the impact of gender, age, frailty, physical dependence, and chronic diseases on mortality over a seven-year period.

METHODS

We included prospectively all patients hospitalised for medical reasons over 75 years of age with two or more chronic illnesses in a specialised ward. Data on chronic diseases were collected using the Charlson comorbidity index and a questionnaire for disorders not included in this index. Demographic characteristics, Clinical Frailty Scale, Barthel index, and complications during hospitalisation were collected.

RESULTS

514 patients (46% males) with a mean age of 85 (± 5) years were included. The median follow-up was 755 days (interquartile range 25-75%: 76-1,342). Mortality ranged from 44% to 68%, 82% and 91% at one, three, five, and seven years. At inclusion, men were slightly younger and with lower levels of physical impairment. Nevertheless, in the multivariate analysis, men had higher mortality (p<0.001; H.R.:1.43; 95% C.I.95%:1.16-1.75). Age, Clinical Frailty Scale, Barthel, and Charlson indexes were significant predictors in the univariate and multivariate analysis (all p<0.001). Dementia and neoplastic diseases were statistically significant in the unadjusted but not the adjusted model. In a cluster analysis, three patterns of patients were identified, with increasing significant mortality differences between them (p<0.001; H.R.:1.67; 95% CI: 1.49-1.88).

CONCLUSIONS

In our cohort, individual diseases had a limited predictive prognostic capacity, while the combination of chronic illness, frailty, and physical dependence were independent predictors of survival.

Frailty predicts referral for elder abuse evaluation in a nationwide healthcare system-Results from a case-control study

BACKGROUND

Elder abuse (EA) is common and has devastating health impacts. Frailty may increase susceptibility to and consequences of EA for older adults, making healthcare system detection more likely, but this relationship has been difficult to study. We examined the association between a recently validated frailty index and referral to social work (SW) for EA evaluation in the Veterans Administration (VA) healthcare system.

METHODS

We conducted a case-control study of veterans aged ≥60 years evaluated by SW for suspected EA between 2010 and 2018 (n = 14,723) and controls receiving VA primary care services in the same 60-day window (n = 58,369). We used VA and Medicare claims data to measure frailty (VA Frailty Index) and comorbidity burden (the Elixhauser Comorbidity Index) in the 2 years prior to the index. We used adjusted logistic regression models to examine the association of frailty or comorbidity burden with referral to SW for EA evaluation. We used Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) values to evaluate model fit and likelihood ratio (LR) tests to assess the statistical significance of including frailty and comorbidity in the same model.

RESULTS

The sample (n = 73,092) had a mean age 72 years; 14% were Black, and 6% were Hispanic. More cases (67%) than controls (36%) were frail. LR tests comparing the nested models were highly significant (p < 0.001), and AIC values indicated superior model fit when including both frailty and comorbidity in the same model. In a model adjusting for comorbidity and all covariates, pre-frailty (aOR vs. robust 1.7; 95% CI 1.5-1.8) and frailty (aOR vs. robust 3.6; 95% CI 3.3-3.9) were independently associated with referral for EA evaluation.

CONCLUSIONS

A claims-based measure of frailty predicted referral to SW for EA evaluation in a national healthcare system, independent of comorbidity burden. Electronic health record measures of frailty may facilitate EA risk assessment and detection for this important but under-recognized phenomenon.

Early or Late-Life Treatment With Acarbose or Rapamycin Improves Physical Performance and Affects Cardiac Structure in Aging Mice

Pharmacological treatments can extend the life span of mice. For optimal translation in humans, treatments should improve health during aging, and demonstrate efficacy when started later in life. Acarbose (ACA) and rapamycin (RAP) extend life span in mice when treatment is started early or later in life. Both drugs can also improve some indices of healthy aging, although there has been little systematic study of whether health benefits accrue differently depending on the age at which treatment is started. Here we compare the effects of early (4 months) versus late (16 months) onset ACA or RAP treatment on physical function and cardiac structure in genetically heterogeneous aged mice. ACA or RAP treatment improve rotarod acceleration and endurance capacity compared to controls, with effects that are largely similar in mice starting treatment from early or late in life. Compared to controls, cardiac hypertrophy is reduced by ACA or RAP in both sexes regardless of age at treatment onset. ACA has a greater effect on the cardiac lipidome than RAP, and the effects of early-life treatment are recapitulated by late-life treatment. These results indicate that late-life treatment with these drugs provide at least some of the benefits of life long treatment, although some of the benefits occur only in males, which could lead to sex differences in health outcomes later in life.

Complication and Infection Risk Using Bone Substitute Materials to Treat Long Bone Defects in Geriatric Patients: An Observational Study

Background and Objectives: he treatment of large bone defects in geriatric patients often presents a major surgical challenge because of age-related bone loss. In such patients, the scarcity of healthy makes autologous grafting techniques hard to perform. On the one hand, clinicians' fear of possible infections limits using bone substitute materials (BSM). On the other hand, BSM is limitless and spares patients another surgery to harvest autologous material. Materials and Methods: To address the aptness of BSM in geriatric patients, we performed a retrospective analysis of all patients over the age of 64 years who visited our clinic between the years 2011-2018. The study assessed postoperative complications clinically and healing results radiologically. The study included 83 patients with bone defects at the distal radius, proximal humerus, and proximal tibia. The defect zones were filled with BSM based on either nanocrystalline hydroxyapatite (NHA) or calcium phosphate (CP). For comparison, a reference group (empty defect, ED) without the void filling with a BSM was also included. Results: 106 patients sustained traumatic fractures of the distal radius (71.7%), proximal humerus (5.7%), and proximal tibia (22.6%). No difference was found between the BSM groups in infection occurrence (p = 1.0). Although not statistically significant, the BSM groups showed a lower rate of pseudarthrosis (p = 0.09) compared with the ED group. Relative risk (RR) of complications was 32.64% less in the BSM groups compared with the ED group. The additional beneficial outcome of BSM was demonstrated by calculating the number needed to treat (NNT). The calculation showed that with every six patients treated, at least one complication could be avoided. Radiological assessment of bone healing showed significant improvement in the bridging of the defect zone (p < 0.001) when BSM was used. Conclusions: In contrast to previous studies, the study showed that BSM could support bone healing and does not present an infection risk in geriatric patients. The NNT calculation indicates a wider potential benefit of BSM.

Predictive validity of the Short Functional Geriatric Evaluation for mortality, hospitalization and institutionalization in older adults: A retrospective cohort survey

Objectives

Bio-psycho-social frailty is related to increased risk of death and utilization of health services. This paper reports the predictive validity of a 10-min multidimensional questionnaire on the risk of death, hospitalization and institutionalization.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was performed based on data from the "Long Live the Elderly!" program, involving 8,561 community-dwelling Italian people >75, followed for an average of 516.6 days (Median = 448, P ₂₅-P ₇₅: 309-692). Mortality, hospitalization, and institutionalization rates according to frailty levels assessed by the Short Functional Geriatric Evaluation (SFGE) have been calculated.

Results

Compared with the robust, the pre-frail, frail, and very frail faced a statistically significant increase in the risk of mortality (RR = 1.40, 2.78 and 5.41), hospitalization (OR = 1.31, 1.67, and 2.08) and institutionalization (OR = 3.63, 9.52, and 10.62). Similar results were obtained in the sub-sample of those with only socio-economic issues. Frailty predicted mortality with an area under the ROC curve of 0.70 (95% CI 0.68-0.72) with sensitivity and specificity of 83.2% and 40.4%. Analyses of single determinants of these negative outcomes showed a multivariable pattern of determinants for all the events.

Conclusions

The SFGE predicts death, hospitalization and institutionalization by stratifying older people according to the levels of frailty. The short administration time, the socio-economic variables and the characteristics of personnel administering the questionnaire make it suitable for being used in public health as a screening tool for a large population, to put frailty at the core of the care for community-dwelling older adults. The difficulty in capturing the complexity of the frailty is witnessed by the moderate sensitivity and specificity of the questionnaire.

Comparing the association between multiple chronic conditions, multimorbidity, frailty, and survival among older patients with cancer

INTRODUCTION

The high prevalence of multiple chronic conditions (MCC), multimorbidity, and frailty may affect treatment and outcomes for older adults with cancer. The goal of this study was to use three conceptually distinct measures of morbidity to examine the association between these measures and mortality.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using Medicare claims data linked with the 2012-2016 Ohio Cancer Incidence Surveillance System we identified older adults with incident primary cancer sites of breast, colorectal, lung, or prostate (n = 29,140). We used claims data to identify their Elixhauser comorbidities, Multimorbidity-Weighted Index (MWI), and Claims Frailty Index (CFI) as measures of MCC, multimorbidity, and frailty, respectively. We used Cox proportional hazard models to examine the association between these measures and survival time since diagnosis.

RESULTS

Lung cancer patients had the highest levels of MCC, multimorbidity, and frailty. There was a positive association between all three measures and a greater hazard of death after adjusting for age, sex (colorectal and lung only), and stage. Breast cancer patients with 5+ comorbidities had an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 1.63 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.38, 1.93), and those with mild frailty had an aHR of 3.38 (95% CI; 2.12, 5.41). The C statistics for breast cancer were 0.79, 0.78, and 0.79 for the MCC, MWI, and CFI respectively. Similarly, lung cancer patients who were moderately or severely frail had an aHR of 1.82 (95% CI: 1.53, 2.18) while prostate cancer patients had an aHR of 3.39 (95% CI: 2.12, 5.41) and colorectal cancer patients had an aHR of 4.51 (95% CI: 3.23, 6.29). Model performance was nearly identical across the MCC, multimorbidity, and frailty models within cancer type. The models performed best for prostate and breast cancer, and notably worse for lung cancer. The frailty models showed the greatest separation in unadjusted survival curves.

DISCUSSION

The MCC, multimorbidity, and frailty indices performed similarly well in predicting mortality among a large cohort of older cancer patients. However, there were notable differences by cancer type. This work highlights that although model performance is similar, frailty may serve as a clearer indicator in risk stratification of geriatric oncology patients than simple MCCs or multimorbidity.

Multidimensional frailty and quality of life: data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

PURPOSE

Frailty has been found to be associated with poor quality of life (QoL) in older people, but data available are limited to cross-sectional studies. We therefore aimed to assess the association between multidimensional frailty, determined by Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI), with mortality and good QoL expectancy (GQoLE) in a large representative sample of older adults, over 10 years of follow-up.

METHODS

In the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, using the data from 2004-2005 and 2014-2015, MPI was calculated using a weighted score of domains of comprehensive geriatric assessment, i.e., number of difficulties in activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental ADL, depressive symptoms, number of medical conditions, body mass index, physical activity level, and social aspects. Mortality was assessed using administrative data, GQoLE indicators were used for longitudinal changes in QoL.

RESULTS

6244 Participants (mean age 71.8 years, 44.5% males) were followed up for 10 years. After adjusting for potential confounders, compared to people in the MPI low-risk group, people in the moderate (hazard ratio, HR = 4.27; 95% confidence interval, CI 3.55-5.14) and severe-risk group (HR = 10.3; 95% CI 7.88-13.5) experienced a significantly higher mortality rate. During the follow-up period, people in the moderate and severe-risk groups reported lower GQoLE values than their counterparts, independently from age and gender.

CONCLUSIONS

Multidimensional frailty was associated with a higher risk of mortality and significantly lower GQoLE, suggesting that the multifactorial nature of frailty is associated not only with mortality, but also poor QoL.

Racial disparities in treatments and mortality among a large population-based cohort of older men and women with colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

There were racial disparities in treatment and mortality among patients with colorectal cancer, but few studies incorporated information on hypertension and diabetes and their treatment status.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study identified 101,250 patients from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked database in the United States who were diagnosed with colorectal cancer at age ≥65 years between 2007 and 2015 with follow-up to December 2016.

RESULTS

There were substantial racial and ethnic disparities in the prevalence of hypertension and diabetes in patients with colorectal cancer, in receiving chemotherapy and radiation therapy, and in receiving antihypertensive and antidiabetic treatment. Racial disparities in receiving these therapies remained significant in this large cohort of Medicare beneficiaries after stratifications by private health insurance status at the time of cancer diagnosis and by tumor stage. Non-Hispanic black patients had a significantly higher risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio: 1.07, 95% CI: 1.04-1.10), which remained significantly higher (1.05, 1.02-1.08) after adjusting for patient sociodemographics, tumor factors, comorbidity and treatments as compared to non-Hispanic white patients. The adjusted risk of colorectal cancer-specific mortality was also significantly higher (1.08, 1.04-1.12) between black and white patients.

CONCLUSIONS

There were substantial racial disparities in prevalence of hypertension and diabetes in men and women diagnosed with colorectal cancer and in receipt of chemotherapy, radiation therapy, antihypertensive and antidiabetic treatment. Black patients with colorectal cancer had a significantly higher risk of all-cause mortality and colorectal cancer-specific mortality than whites, even after adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, tumor factors, comorbidity scores, and treatments.