Response to letter to the editor: "Toward the more justified strategy in off-pump coronary bypass grafting for patients with severely reduced left ventricular function" by Fukonaga et al

A Risk Score for Predicting Long-Term Mortality Following Off-Pump Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting

BACKGROUND

Off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCAB) comprises 15-30% of all bypass grafting surgeries. The currently available perioperative scores such as Euroscore and STS score do not specifically predict long-term mortality after off-pump procedures. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is one of the new, easily accessible markers of inflammation with proven predictive value in cardiovascular diseases. We aimed to develop the first risk score for long-term mortality after OPCAB and to determine if the perioperative value of NLR predicts long-term mortality in OPCAB patients.

METHODS

In total, 440 consecutive patients with multivessel stable coronary artery disease undergoing OPCAB were recruited. Differential leukocyte counts were obtained by a routine hematology analyzer. Data regarding mortality during a median follow-up time of 5.3 years were obtained from the Polish National Health Service database. An independent population of 242 patients served as a validation cohort.

RESULTS

All-cause mortality was influenced by different clinical risk factors. In multivariate regression analysis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, stroke history, post-operative NLR and LVEF were independent predictors of mortality. Combing all independent predictors predicted long-term all-cause mortality with 68.5% sensitivity and 71.5% specificity (AUC = 0.704, p < 0.001). After weighing these variables according to their estimates in a multivariate regression model, we developed a score to predict mortality in patients undergoing OPCAB (PREDICT-OPCAB Score, ranging from 0 to 10). Patients with a high score were at higher risk of mortality within the median 5.3 years of follow-up (score 0-3: 8.3%; 4-6: 27.0%; 7-10: 40.0%; p < 0.001 for score 0-3 vs. 4-6 and 7-10). This association was confirmed in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated the first simplified risk score to predict mortality following OPCAB based on easily accessible clinical factors. This risk score can be used when obtaining a patient's informed consent and as an aid in determining treatment.