Metabolic syndrome, but not non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, increases 10-year mortality: A prospective, community-cohort study

Comparison of cardiovascular risk prediction models developed using machine learning based on data from a Sri Lankan cohort with World Health Organization risk charts for predicting cardiovascular risk among Sri Lankans: a cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Models derived from non-Sri Lankan cohorts are used for cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification of Sri Lankans.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a CV risk prediction model using machine learning (ML) based on data from a Sri Lankan cohort followed up for 10 years, and to compare the predictions with WHO risk charts.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING

The Ragama Health Study (RHS), an ongoing, prospective, population-based cohort study of patients randomly selected from the Ragama Medical Office of Heath area, Sri Lanka, focusing on the epidemiology of non-communicable diseases, was used to develop the model. The external validation cohort included patients admitted to Colombo North Teaching Hospital (CNTH), a tertiary care hospital in Sri Lanka, from January 2019 through August 2020.

PARTICIPANTS

All RHS participants, aged 40-64 years in 2007, without cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline, who had complete data of 10-year outcome by 2017, were used for model development. Patients aged 40-74 years admitted to CNTH during the study period with incident CV events or a disease other than an acute CV event (CVE) with complete data for CVD risk calculation were used for external validation of the model.

METHODS

Using the follow-up data of the cohort, we developed two ML models for predicting 10-year CV risk using six conventional CV risk variables (age, gender, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol level) and all available variables (n=75). The ML models were derived using classification algorithms of the supervised learning technique. We compared the predictive performance of our ML models with WHO risk charts (2019, Southeast Asia) using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC-ROC) and calibration plots. We validated the 6-variable model in an external hospital-based cohort.

RESULTS

Of the 2596 participants in the baseline cohort, 179 incident CVEs were observed over 10 years. WHO risk charts predicted only 10 CVEs (AUC-ROC: 0.51, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.60), while the new 6-variable ML model predicted 125 CVEs (AUC-ROC: 0.72, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.78) and the 75-variable ML model predicted 124 CVEs (AUC-ROC: 0.74, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.80). Calibration results (Hosmer-Lemeshow test) for the 6-variable ML model and the WHO risk charts were χ2=12.85 (p=0.12) and χ2=15.58 (p=0.05), respectively. In the external validation cohort, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and calibration of the 6-variable ML model and the WHO risk charts, respectively, were: 70.3%, 94.9%, 87.3%, 86.6%, χ2=8.22, p=0.41 and 23.7%, 79.0%, 35.8%, 67.7%, χ2=81.94, p<0.0001.

CONCLUSIONS

ML-based models derived from a cohort of Sri Lankans improved the overall accuracy of CV-risk prediction compared with the WHO risk charts for this cohort of Southeast Asians.

Early-stage non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in relation to atherosclerosis and inflammation

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a multisystem disease closely linked to cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study aims to investigate the connection between early-stage NAFLD and atherosclerosis, as well as the correlation between liver fibrosis and coronary heart disease while exploring underlying inflammatory mechanisms.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, the authors analyzed data from 607 patients who underwent both coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) and abdominal ultrasonography (US). Logistic regression was utilized to examine the association between NAFLD and atherosclerosis, while mediation analysis was conducted to explore whether inflammatory markers mediate the link between liver fibrosis and coronary artery disease.

RESULTS

Among the 607 patients included, 237 (39.0 %) were diagnosed with NAFLD through ultrasonography. After adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, ALT, and AST, NAFLD demonstrated a significant correlation with carotid intimal thickening (1.58, 95 % CI 1.04‒2.40; p = 0.034) and non-calcified plaque (1.56, 95 % CI 1.03‒2.37; p = 0.038). Additionally, fibrosis predictive markers, including FIB-4 > 1.3 (1.06, 95 % CI 2.30‒5.00; p = 0.035) and APRI (6.26, 95 % CI 1.03‒37.05; p = 0.046), independently correlated with coronary heart disease after adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors. Conversely, among systemic inflammatory markers, only the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI) are independently associated with coronary heart disease. ROC curve analysis indicated that combining predictive fibrosis markers or inflammatory markers with traditional cardiovascular risk factors enhanced the predictive accuracy for coronary heart disease. Mediation analysis revealed that NLR fully mediated the effect of liver fibrosis on coronary heart disease.

CONCLUSION

NAFLD is associated with carotid intimal thickening and non-calcified plaque, suggesting an increased cardiovascular risk. Furthermore, liver fibrosis independently increases the risk of coronary heart disease in the early-stage NAFLD population, and inflammation may play a fully mediating role in the effect of liver fibrosis on coronary heart disease. Early intervention is crucial for NAFLD patients to mitigate future major adverse cardiovascular events.

The Inter-Organ Crosstalk Reveals an Inevitable Link between MAFLD and Extrahepatic Diseases

Fatty liver is known to be associated with extra-hepatic diseases including atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and extra-hepatic cancers, which affect the prognosis and quality of life of the patients. The inter-organ crosstalk is mediated by metabolic abnormalities such as insulin resistance and visceral adiposity. Recently, metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) was proposed as a new definition for fatty liver. MAFLD is characterized by the inclusion criteria of metabolic abnormality. Therefore, MAFLD is expected to identify patients at high risk of extra-hepatic complications. In this review, we focus on the relationships between MAFLD and multi-organ diseases. We also describe the pathogenic mechanisms of the inter-organ crosstalk.

Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality Related to Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Whether non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a cardiovascular (CV) risk factor is debated. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the CV morbidity and mortality related to NAFLD in the general population, and to determine whether CV risk is comparable between lean and non-lean NAFLD phenotypes. We searched multiple databases, including PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library, for observational studies published through 2022 that reported the risk of CV events and mortality. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for all-cause mortality, CV mortality, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, atrial fibrillation (AF), and major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) were assessed through random-effect meta-analysis. We identified 33 studies and a total study population of 10,592,851 individuals (mean age 53±8; male sex 50%; NAFLD 2, 9%). Mean follow-up was 10±6 years. Pooled ORs for all-cause and CV mortality were respectively 1.14 (95% CI, 0.78-1.67) and 1.13 (95% CI, 0.57-2.23), indicating no significant association between NAFLD and mortality. NAFLD was associated with increased risk of MI (OR 1.6; 95% CI, 1.5-1.7), stroke (OR: 1.6; 95% CI, 1.2-2.1), atrial fibrillation (OR: 1.7; 95% CI, 1.2-2.3), and MACCE (OR: 2.3; 95% CI, 1.3-4.2). Compared with non-lean NAFLD, lean NAFLD was associated with increased CV mortality (OR: 1.50; 95% CI, 1.1-2.0), but similar all-cause mortality and risk of MACCE. While NAFLD may not be a risk factor for total and CV mortality, it is associated with excess risk of non-fatal CV events. Lean and non-lean NAFLD phenotypes exhibit distinct prognostic profiles and should receive equitable clinical care.

Association of fatty liver index with all-cause and disease-specific mortality: A nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

Population-based data regarding the prognostic implications of hepatic steatosis have been inconsistent. We examined the association between the fatty liver index (FLI) with all-cause and disease-specific mortality in the general population.

METHODS

We included subjects who underwent a health examination in 2009 using the Korean nationwide health screening database. Death and cause of death data were provided by Statistics Korea. The causes of death were classified using 10th Revision of the International Classification of Diseases codes.

RESULTS

Among the included 10,585,844 participants, there were 418,296 deaths during a median follow-up period of 8.3 years. When adjusting for possible confounding factors, the risk of all-cause mortality linearly increased with a higher FLI score (hazard ratio [HR], 95% confidence interval [CI]: FLI 30-59, 1.19, 1.18-1.20; FLI ≥ 60, 1.67, 1.65-1.69, P for trend <0.001). The risk of disease-specific mortality including cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, respiratory disease and liver disease, linearly increased as the FLI score became higher (HR, 95% CI: FLI 30-59, 1.18, 1.16-1.20, FLI ≥ 60: 1.61, 1.56-1.65 for CVD; FLI 30-59, 1.13, 1.11-1.14, FLI ≥ 60, 1.41, 1.38-1.44 for cancer; FLI 30-59, 1.26, 1.22-1.29, FLI ≥ 60, 1.96, 1.88-2.05 for respiratory disease, FLI 30-59, 2.29, 2.21-2.38, FLI ≥ 60, 5.57, 5.31-5.85 for liver disease). The risk of all-cause mortality increased as the FLI score became higher across all the body mass index groups, and the greatest risk was observed in those who were underweight (HR, 95% CI = 2.43, 2.09-2.82 in FLI ≥ 60).

CONCLUSION

FLI may serve as a prognostic indicator of death and a high FLI is associated with a poor prognosis particularly in the underweight group.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Studies have reported a significant association between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and increased incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the magnitude of the risk and whether this risk changes with the severity of NAFLD remains uncertain. We performed a meta-analysis of observational studies to quantify the magnitude of the association between NAFLD and risk of incident CVD events.

METHODS

We systematically searched PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science from database inception to July 1, 2021, to identify eligible observational studies examining the risk of incident CVD events amongst adult (age ≥18 years) individuals with and without NAFLD and in which NAFLD was diagnosed by imaging, International Classification of Diseases codes, or liver biopsy. The primary outcomes were CVD death, non-fatal CVD events, or both. Data from selected studies were extracted, and meta-analysis was performed using random-effects models to obtain summary hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs. The quality of the evidence was assessed with the Cochrane risk of bias tool. This study is registered on Open Science Framework, number osf.io/5z7gf.

FINDINGS

We identified 36 longitudinal studies with aggregate data on 5 802 226 middle-aged individuals (mean age 53 years [SD 7]) and 99 668 incident cases of fatal and non-fatal CVD events over a median follow-up of 6·5 years (IQR 5·0-10·2). NAFLD was associated with a moderately increased risk of fatal or non-fatal CVD events (pooled random-effects HR 1·45, 95% CI 1·31-1·61; I²=86·18%). This risk markedly increased across the severity of NAFLD, especially the stage of fibrosis (pooled random-effects HR 2·50, 95% CI 1·68-3·72; I²=73·84%). All risks were independent of age, sex, adiposity measures, diabetes, and other common cardiometabolic risk factors. Sensitivity analyses did not modify these results.

INTERPRETATION

NAFLD is associated with an increased long-term risk of fatal or non-fatal CVD events. CVD risk is further increased with more advanced liver disease, especially with higher fibrosis stage. These results provide evidence that NAFLD might be an independent risk factor for CVD morbidity and mortality.

FUNDING

None.

Efficacy and Safety of Glucagon-like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists in the Treatment of Metabolic Associated Fatty Liver Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Clinical trials examining the therapeutic benefits of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) on patients with metabolic associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) have reported inconsistent results. The aim of this meta-analysis was to verify the role of GLP-1RA in the treatment of MAFLD patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase, Medline, and the Cochrane Library for randomized controlled trials published that compared GLP-1RA with the control treatment in patients with MAFLD till to July 30, 2020. The effects of GLP-1RA on liver histology, body mass index, waist circumference (WC), aspartate aminotransferase, total cholesterol, triglycerides (TG), low-density lipoprotein and high-density lipoprotein were evaluated.

RESULTS

Thirteen trials involving 704 patients were included in the meta-analysis. Compared with the control treatment, GLP-1RA treatment induced a greater resolution of steatohepatitis [RR=2.87; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.89 to 9.23], delayed the progression of liver fibrosis (RR=3.83, 95% CI: 0.91 to 16.07) and reduced liver fat deposition (MD: -1.40; 95% CI: -2.75 to -0.05). In addition, it reduced the body mass index (MD: -1.15; 95% CI: -2.26 to -0.04), WC (MD: -3.33; 95% CI: -6.31 to -0.35) and improved serum aspartate aminotransferase (MD: -3.04; 95% CI: -5.93 to -0.16) and total cholesterol (MD: -0.20; 95% CI: -0.28 to -0.13).

CONCLUSION

GLP-1RA improves liver steatosis and fibrosis. It is also beneficial to metabolic syndrome as it reduces BMI, WC, and hyperlipidemia.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, insulin resistance, metabolic syndrome and their association with vascular risk

The prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), one of the most common liver diseases, is rising. About 25% of adults worldwide are probably affected by NAFLD. Insulin resistance (IR) and fat accumulation in the liver are strongly related. The association between NAFLD, metabolic syndrome (MetS) and IR is established, but an independent impact of NAFLD on vascular risk and progression of cardiovascular (CV) disease (CVD) still needs to be confirmed. This narrative review considers the evidence regarding the link between NAFLD, IR and CVD risk. There is strong evidence for a "concomitantly rising incidence" of NAFLD, IR, MetS and CVD but there is no definitive evidence regarding whether NAFLD is, or is not, an independent and significant risk factor the development of CVD. There are also considerations that type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) may be a common link between NAFLD/non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and CVD. NAFLD may be associated with widespread abnormal peri-organ or intra-organ fat (APIFat) deposition (e.g. epicardial adipose tissue) which may further contribute to CV risk. It is clear that NAFLD patients have a greater CV risk (independent or not) which needs to be addressed in clinical practice.

Metabolic syndrome and the aging retina

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review explores metabolic syndrome (MetS) as a risk factor that accelerates aging in retinal neurons and may contribute to the neurodegeneration seen in glaucomatous optic neuropathy (GON) and age-related macular degeneration (AMD).

RECENT FINDINGS

Both animal model experiments and epidemiologic studies suggest that metabolic stress may lead to aberrant regulation of a number of cellular pathways that ultimately lead to premature aging of the cell, including those of a neuronal lineage.

SUMMARY

GON and AMD are each leading causes of irreversible blindness worldwide. Aging is a significant risk factor in the specific retinal neuron loss that is seen with each condition. Though aging at a cellular level is difficult to define, there are many mechanistic modifiers of aging. Metabolic-related stresses induce inflammation, oxidative stress, mitochondrial dysfunction, endoplasmic reticulum stress, alterations to the unfolded protein response, defects in autophagy, alterations to the microbiome, and deposition of advanced glycation end products that can all hasten the aging process. Due to the number of variables related to metabolic health, defining criteria to enable the study of risk factors at a population level is challenging. MetS is a definable constellation of related metabolic risk factors that includes enlarged waist circumference, dyslipidemia, systemic hypertension, and hyperglycemia. MetS has been associated with both GON and AMD and may contribute to disease onset and/or progression in each disease.

Outcomes of NAFLD and MAFLD: Results from a community-based, prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The term "metabolic (dysfunction)-associated fatty liver disease" (MAFLD) is suggested alternative for "non-alcoholic fatty liver disease" (NAFLD), as it better reflects metabolic dysfunction. No study has compared outcomes of the two diagnostic criteria.

METHODS

In an ongoing, community-based, cohort-study in suburban Sri Lanka, participants were randomly selected in 2007. They were reassessed in 2014 to evaluate new-onset metabolic traits (MTs) and cardiovascular-events (CVEs). Baseline characteristics, MTs and CVEs after 7-years were compared in NAFLD and MAFLD and vs. controls. Similarly, we compared these parameters in those excluded by the NAFLD definition but captured by the MAFLD definition and vice versa, and vs. controls.

FINDINGS

Of 2985 recruited in 2007, 940 (31.5%) had NAFLD, 990 (33.1%) had MAFLD and 362 (12.1%) were controls. When compared to NAFLD, MAFLD captured an additional 2.9% and lost 1.3% individuals. At baseline, anthropometric and metabolic traits were similar in NAFLD and MAFLD. At follow-up in 7-years, the risk of having new-onset MTs and fatal/non-fatal CVEs were similar in the groups, but were significantly higher compared to controls. Those excluded by the NAFLD definition but captured by the MAFLD definition showed higher baseline MTs compared to those excluded by the MAFLD definition but captured by the NAFLD definition, and had substantially higher risk for having new-onset MTs and CVEs compared to controls.

INTERPRETATION

Although NAFLD and MAFLD had similar MTs at baseline, and similar outcomes after 7-years, those who were excluded by the NAFLD definition but captured by the MAFLD definition seem at higher risk of adverse outcomes than those excluded by the MAFLD definition but captured by the NAFLD definition. Although the increase in the index population was small, redefining NAFLD as MAFLD seemed to improve clinical utility.

Metabolic Syndrome Is Associated With Ocular Hypertension and Glaucoma

Glaucoma remains the world's leading cause of irreversible blindness and though intraocular pressure (IOP) is the most prevalent risk factor and only reliable therapeutic target, a number of systemic disease associations have been reported. Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a constellation of findings that includes systemic hypertension, abdominal obesity, glucose intolerance, and dyslipidemia. MetS is becoming increasingly common worldwide, with prevalence up to 40% in some countries. Not only is MetS a significant cause of morbidity, but it is also associated with an increase in all-cause mortality. Reports have been conflicting regarding the association of individual components of MetS, including systemic hypertension and diabetes, with elevated IOP or glaucoma. However, though limitations in the existing literature are present, current evidence suggests that MetS is associated with IOP as well as glaucoma. Additional studies are needed to clarify this association by incorporating additional metrics including assessment of central corneal thickness as well as optic nerve structure and function. Future studies are also needed to determine whether lifestyle modification or systemic treatment of MetS could reduce the incidence or progression of glaucoma.

Distinct Cause of Death Profiles of Hospitalized Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A 10 Years' Cross-Sectional Multicenter Study in China

Background: The clinical burden and natural history of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) vary globally. We aimed to investigate NAFLD-related mortality profiles in hospitalized patients in southern China.

Methods: A multicenter retrospective investigation with a 10-year study period (2009–2018) analyzed 10,071 deaths during hospitalization (NAFLD: 2,015; other liver diseases: 1,140; without liver diseases: 6,916) was performed using a multiple cause of death analysis. Medical histories and biochemistry and imaging findings were extracted from the electronic medical record system. The underlying causes of death were classified by 10th Revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) codes.

Results: The distribution of death causes in patients with NAFLD has stabilized over time, with cardio- and cerebral vascular disease (CVD) ranked first (35.6%), followed by extrahepatic malignancies (22.6%), infection (11.0%), kidney disease (7.5%), liver-related diseases (5.2%), respiratory diseases (3.9%), digestive diseases (3.5%), endocrine diseases (3.5%), and other diseases (7.2%). NAFLD patients had more deaths attributable to CVD, extrahepatic malignancies, liver-related diseases (all P < 0.001) and multiorgan failure than the deceased controls. The severity of steatosis was independently associated with these relationships (liver-related diseases: OR = 1.37, 95% CI: 1.20–1.59, cardio- and cerebrovascular diseases: OR = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.19–1.31, infectious diseases: OR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.04–1.26, and renal diseases: OR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.02–1.47, all P < 0.05) after adjustment for sex, body mass index (BMI), fasting blood glucose, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, uric acid, metabolic syndromes and fibrosis index based on the 4 factors.

Conclusion : NAFLD patients had higher proportions of death due to underlying CVD and liver-related diseases than the general population in China; these proportions positively correlated with steatosis degree.

Predictive Role of Child-To-Adult Blood Pressure Trajectories for Incident Metabolic Syndrome: 30-Year Hanzhong Adolescent Hypertension Study

OBJECTIVE

The relationship between child-to-adult blood pressure (BP) trajectories and metabolic syndrome (MetS) is unknown. We aimed to determine the predictive role of BP trajectories for incident MetS and its components.

METHODS

The prospective Hanzhong Adolescent Hypertension study began in 1987 and included 2692 participants free of MetS at baseline with at least 3 BP measurements available from 1987 to 2017.

RESULTS

The systolic BP (SBP) trajectory patterns were grouped as normal (class 1, 18.7%), high normal (class 2, 60.3%), prehypertensive (class 3, 13.1%), stage 1 hypertensive (class 4, 5.7%), and stage 2 hypertensive (class 5, 2.2%). Compared with those in the normal group, individuals in classes 2 to 5 had significantly higher risks of MetS (all Ps < .05), and those with hypertension had more than an 8-fold higher risk of MetS (both P < .05). The fully adjusted risk ratios (RRs) of central obesity increased significantly in a stepwise manner as the SBP trajectory group increased from class 1 to class 5 (P < .05). Compared with those with a normal SBP trajectory, participants in the prehypertensive group and stage 1 and stage 2 hypertensive groups had significantly higher RRs for high-risk triglycerides after full adjustment (RR = 1.89 [1.22-2.94]; RR = 3.61 [2.16-6.02]; and RR = 3.22 [1.52-6.84], respectively).

CONCLUSION

Our study suggests that BP trajectories are predictive of incident MetS outcomes. Early detection of hypertension or modest elevations in BP is crucial. The stage of hypertension based on SBP level showed a greater association with central obesity.