Behavioral economics-A framework for donor organ decision-making in pediatric heart transplantation

Review on clinician bias and its impact on racial and socioeconomic disparities in pediatric heart transplantation

This expert review seeks to highlight implicit bias in health care, transplant medicine, and pediatric heart transplantation to focus attention on the role these biases may play in the racial/ethnic and socioeconomic disparities noted in pediatric heart transplantation. This review breaks down the transplant decision making process to highlight points at which implicit bias may affect outcomes and discuss how the science of human decision making may help understand these complex processes.

Pediatric donor heart acceptance practices in the United States: What is really being considered?

BACKGROUND

Recent studies demonstrate high offer decline and organ non-utilization rates are associated with increased pediatric heart transplant waitlist mortality. We sought to determine which donor, candidate, and offer specific variables most importantly influenced these decisions using only data available at the time of each offer.

METHODS

Retrospective review of pediatric (<18 years) heart donor offers made to pediatric candidates in the United States between 2010 and 2020. In addition to standard donor, candidate, and offer data available in UNOS, we extracted objective and qualitative valvar and myocardial function data from all available donor echocardiogram reports.

RESULTS

During the study period, 5625 pediatric donor hearts produced 30 156 offers to 4905 unique candidates, of which 88.7% of all offers were declined and 39.2% of organs were not utilized by pediatric waitlisted candidates. Of the 60.8% utilized hearts, 89.7% had a 'cumulatively' normal echocardiogram at the time of offer acceptance; 62.9% of hearts not utilized for a pediatric candidate also had a cumulatively normal final echocardiogram. Random forest and logistic regression modeling demonstrated good predictive performance (AUROC ≥0.83) of likelihood to accept when utilizing donor, candidate, and offer specific variables. SHAP variable importance scores demonstrated number of prior offer declines and candidate institution's prior year acceptance rates as the two most important variables influencing offer decisions.

CONCLUSIONS

Behavioral economics appear to play a significant role in pediatric heart transplant candidate institutions' acceptance practices, even when considering the arguably healthier pediatric donor population. Removal of prior institution's decisions from DonorNet may help increase donor utilization.

Heart transplant offers are less likely to be accepted on weekends, holidays, and conferences

BACKGROUND

The existence of a "weekend effect" in heart transplantation (HTx) is understudied. The present study sought to determine whether the odds of (HTx) offer acceptance differed for adult and pediatric candidates depending upon the day on which the offer occurred.

METHODS

United Network for Organ Sharing data were used to identify all HTx offers to adult (listing age ≥18) and pediatric candidates from 2000-2019. Odds of offer acceptance were studied, comparing weekends, holidays, and conferences (Society of Thoracic Surgeons [STS], American Association for Thoracic Surgery [AATS], International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation [ISHLT]) to "baseline" (all other days). Multivariable binary logistic regression analyses were performed to determine independent predictors of offer nonacceptance, controlling for the impacts of program transplant volume, region, and candidate characteristics.

RESULTS

A total of 323,953 offers occurred - 298,405 to adults and 25,548 to pediatric candidates. Clinically significant differences did not exist in donor or candidate characteristics between baseline or other events. The number of offers per day was stable throughout the year for both adults (p = 0.191) and pediatrics (p = 0.976). In adults, independently lower odds of acceptance existed on weekends (OR 0.88 [95% CI 0.84-0.92]), conferences in aggregate (0.86 [0.77-0.95]), and holidays in aggregate (0.81 [0.72-0.91]). In children, independently lower odds of acceptance were seen on weekends (0.88 [0.79-0.98]), during STS (0.46 [0.25-0.83], and during Christmas (0.32 [0.14-0.76]).

CONCLUSIONS

The day on which a HTx offer occurs significantly impacts its likelihood of acceptance. Further work can determine the impacts of human behavior or resource distribution, but knowledge of this phenomenon can inform efforts to ensure ideal organ allocation throughout the year.

Overly Selective Offer Acceptance is Associated With High Waitlist Mortality for the Most Ill Lung Transplant Candidates

The demand for organs for lung transplantation (LTx) continues to outweigh supply. However, nearly 75% of donor lungs are never transplanted. LTx offer acceptance practices and the effects on waitlist/post-transplant outcomes by candidate clinical acuity are understudied. UNOS was used to identify all LTx candidates, donors, and offers from 2005 to 2019. Candidates were grouped by Lung Allocation Score (LAS; applicable post-2005, ages ≥12 years): LAS<40, 40-60, 61-80, and >80. Offer acceptance patterns, waitlist death/decompensation, and post-transplant survival (PTS) were compared. "Acceptable organ offers" were those from donors whose organs were accepted for transplantation. Approximately 3 million offers to 34,531 candidates were reviewed. Median waitlist durations were: 9 days-(LAS>80), 17 days-(LAS 61-80), 42 days-(LAS 40-60), 125 days-(LAS<40) (P < 0.001 between all). Per waitlist-day, offer rates were: total offers - 0.8/day-(LAS>80), 0.7/day-(LAS 61-80), 0.6/day-(LAS 40-60), 0.4/day-(LAS<40); acceptable offers - 0.34/day-(LAS>80), 0.32/day-(LAS 61-80), 0.24/day-(LAS 40-60), 0.15/day-(LAS<40) (both P < 0.001 between all LAS). Among patients who experienced waitlist mortality/decompensation, ≥1 acceptable offer was declined in 92% (3939/4270) of patients - 78% for LAS >80, 88% for LAS 61-80, 93% for LAS 40-60, and 96% for LAS <40. Thirty-day waitlist mortality/decompensation rates were: 46%-(LAS>80), 24%-(LAS 61-80), 5%-(LAS 40-60), <1%-(LAS<40) (P < 0.001 between all). PTS was equivalent between patients for whom the first/second offer vs later offers were accepted (all LAS P > 0.4). The first offers that LTx candidates receive (including acceptable organs) are declined for nearly all candidates. Healthier candidates can afford offer selectivity but more ill patients (LAS>60) cannot, experiencing exceedingly high 30-day waitlist mortality.

Managing uncertainty in decision-making of common congenital cardiac defects

Decision-making in congenital cardiac care, although sometimes appearing simple, may prove challenging due to lack of data, uncertainty about outcomes, underlying heuristics, and potential biases in how we reach decisions. We report on the decision-making complexities and uncertainty in management of five commonly encountered congenital cardiac problems: indications for and timing of treatment of subaortic stenosis, closure or observation of small ventricular septal defects, management of new-onset aortic regurgitation in ventricular septal defect, management of anomalous aortic origin of a coronary artery in an asymptomatic patient, and indications for operating on a single anomalously draining pulmonary vein. The strategy underpinning each lesion and the indications for and against intervention are outlined. Areas of uncertainty are clearly delineated. Even in the presence of "simple" congenital cardiac lesions, uncertainty exists in decision-making. Awareness and acceptance of uncertainty is first required to facilitate efforts at mitigation. Strategies to circumvent uncertainty in these scenarios include greater availability of evidence-based medicine, larger datasets, standardised clinical assessment and management protocols, and potentially the incorporation of artificial intelligence into the decision-making process.

Pediatric heart transplantation: The past, the present, and the future

Heart transplantation (HTx) has a storied past, with origins dating back to the early twentieth century and the first pediatric orthotopic heart transplant performed in 1967 on a neonate with Ebstein abnormality. Today, approximately 500 pediatric HTx are performed annually, with survival times now measured in decades rather than days or weeks. In large part, advances in immunosuppression, critical care, dedicated transplant teams and mechanical circulatory support have paved the way for improvements in waitlist mortality and post-transplant survival, with future directions including the development of intracorporeal ventricular assist devices (VADs) for small children, expanding/standardizing donor criteria, and xenotransplantation.

Current opinion in pediatric heart transplantation

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Cardiac transplant remains the most effective therapy for children with end-stage heart disease. Outcomes remain better than any alternative therapy for this condition, but its use is limited by donor organ availability. As a result, waitlist times and mortality on the waiting list remain unacceptably high. Novel approaches are necessary to address this problem.

RECENT FINDINGS

Organ Procurement and Transplant Network/United Network for Organ Sharing readjusted the pediatric heart allocation system in 2016 to prioritize children at highest risk of mortality, encourage judicious listing, and improve appropriate donor organ utilization. Subsequent studies have aligned with these priorities to help risk-stratify patients at the time of listing and identify the importance that should be assigned to donor-specific factors. In addition, many authors are advocating for increased utilization of hearts donated after cardiac death. Pediatric Ventricular Assist Device (VAD) application has also been increasing to help decrease waitlist mortality. Although results have significantly improved, there remain important limitations to widespread use of VADs in the pediatric population. This has prompted novel techniques such as pulmonary artery banding to improve cardiac function and, in some cases, promote recovery. The demand for cardiac replacement continues to increase with an ageing population of patients with congenital heart disease, presenting new challenges and stressors to the system.

SUMMARY

Pediatric cardiac transplant outcomes are excellent but remain plagued by the limited supply of donor organs. Recent strategies to combat this problem have focused on judicious listing, maximal utilization of available donor organs, and safely extending the lives of patients on the waitlist. New demands on the organ supply chain will continue to stress the system, making these efforts of the highest importance.Clinical Trial Registry Number not applicable.

Association of low center performance evaluations and pediatric heart transplant center behavior in the United States

BACKGROUND

To date, no study has evaluated the effects of low center performance evaluations (CPE) on pediatric heart transplant center behavior. We sought to assess the impact of low CPE flags on pediatric heart transplant center listing and transplant volumes and center recipient and donor characteristics.

METHODS

We included centers performing at least 10 pediatric (age <18 years) transplants during the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients reporting period January 2009-June 2011 and evaluated consecutive biannual program specific reports until the last reporting period January 2016-June 2018. We evaluated changes in center behavior at following time points: a year before flagging, a year and two years after the flag; and at last reporting period.

RESULTS

During our study period, 24 pediatric centers were non-flagged and 6 were flagged. Compared to non-flagged centers, there was a decline in candidate listings in flagged centers at the last reporting period (mean increase of 5.5 ± 12.4 listings vs"?> mean decrease of 14.0 ± 14.9 listings; p = .003). Similarly, the number of transplants declined in flagged centers (mean increase of 2.6 ± 9.6 transplants vs"?> mean decrease of 10.0 ± 12.8 transplants; p = .012). Flagged centers had declines in listings for patients with restrictive cardiomyopathy, re-transplant, renal dysfunction, those on mechanical ventilation and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. There was no significant change in donor characteristics between flagged and non-flagged centers.

CONCLUSIONS

Low CPE may have unintended negative consequences on center behavior leading to declines in listing and transplant volumes and potentially leading to decreased listing for higher risk recipients.

A coordinated approach to improving pediatric heart transplant waitlist outcomes: A summary of the ACTION November 2019 waitlist outcomes committee meeting

The number of children needing heart transplantation continues to rise. Although improvements in heart failure therapy, particularly durable mechanical support, have reduced waitlist mortality, the number of children who die while waiting for a suitable donor organ remains unacceptably high. Roughly, 13% of children and 25% of infants on the heart transplant waitlist will not survive to transplantation. With this in mind, the Advanced Cardiac Therapies Improving Outcomes Collaborative Learning Network (ACTION), through its Waitlist Outcomes Committee, convened a 2-day symposium in Ann Arbor, Michigan, from 2-3 November 2019, to better understand the factors that contribute to pediatric heart transplant waitlist mortality and to focus future efforts on improving the organ allocation rates for children needing heart transplantation. Using improvement science methodology, the heart failure-transplant trajectory was broken down into six key steps, after which modes of failure and opportunities for improvement at each step were discussed. As a result, several projects aimed at reducing waitlist mortality were initiated.

A comprehensive strategy in donor acceptance: Impact on pediatric waitlist and heart transplant outcomes

Significant inter- and intra-center practice variability is present in pediatric donor heart acceptability. This may contribute to variation in the donor refusal rate and may impact waitlist time, morbidity, mortality, and transplant rates. In order to reduce practice variability, our center developed and implemented a comprehensive strategy regarding donor acceptance in September 2017. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of this strategy on waitlist time and outcomes as well as early post-transplant outcomes. We performed a single-center, retrospective analysis of all pediatric (<18 years) patients listed for single-organ heart transplant at our center from September 2015 to September 2018. Patients were divided into those listed before (Group 1) and after implementation of the comprehensive strategy (Group 2). The primary end-point was waitlist time. Secondary end-points included waitlist removal due to death or clinical deterioration, donor refusals per listed patient, early post-transplant outcomes (graft failure, mechanical ventilation time, inotropic support, length of hospital stay) and 1-year post-transplant survival. Of 78 listed patients, 54 were transplanted (29 in Group 1), 9 were removed due to death or clinical deterioration (7 in Group 1) and 15 were removed due to clinical improvement (12 in Group 1). The waitlist time was significantly shorter in Group 2 (17 days, IQR 7-53) vs Group 1 (90 days, IQR 14-162); P = .006. The number of donor refusals was lower in Group 2 (1, IQR 0-2.2) vs Group 1 (4, IQR 2-19); P < .001. The percentage of refused donors with normal function (Left ventricular ejection fraction > 50%) was lower in Group 2 vs Group 1 (53% vs 84%; P < .001). Difference in removal from the waitlist for death or deterioration in Group 2 vs Group 1 (n = 2, 7% vs n = 7, 20%, P = .18) did not reach statistical significance. There was no difference in post-transplant outcomes between groups. The waitlist time and donor refusals significantly decreased after implementation of a comprehensive donor acceptance strategy without impacting transplant outcomes. This analysis supports the need for a comprehensive approach to donor organ acceptance within a pediatric transplant center.