Increased temperatures negatively affect Juniperus communis seeds: evidence from transplant experiments along a latitudinal gradient

Common juniper, an overlooked conifer with high invasion potential in protected areas of Patagonia

The benefits of early detection of biological invasions are widely recognized, especially for protected areas (PAs). However, research on incipient invasive plant species is scarce compared to species with a recognized history of invasion. Here, we characterized the invasion status of the non-native conifer Juniperus communis in PAs and interface areas of Andean Patagonia, Argentina. We mapped its distribution and described both the invasion and the environments this species inhabits through field studies, a literature review, and a citizen science initiative. We also modeled the species' potential distribution by comparing the climatic characteristics of its native range with those of the introduced ranges studied. The results show that J. communis is now widely distributed in the region, occurring naturally in diverse habitats, and frequently within and close to PAs. This species can be considered an incipient invader with a high potential for expansion in its regional distribution range, largely due to its high reproductive potential and the high habitat suitability of this environment. Early detection of a plant invasion affords a valuable opportunity to inform citizens of the potential risks to high conservation value ecosystems before the invader is perceived as a natural component of the landscape.