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Wei L, Sanczuk P, De Pauw K, Caron MM, Selvi F, Hedwall PO, Brunet J, Cousins SAO, Plue J, Spicher F, Gasperini C, Iacopetti G, Orczewska A, Uria-Diez J, Lenoir J, Vangansbeke P, De Frenne P. Using warming tolerances to predict understory plant responses to climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2024; 30:e17064. [PMID: 38273565 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17064] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/22/2023] [Revised: 10/27/2023] [Accepted: 11/06/2023] [Indexed: 01/27/2024]
Abstract
Climate change is pushing species towards and potentially beyond their critical thermal limits. The extent to which species can cope with temperatures exceeding their critical thermal limits is still uncertain. To better assess species' responses to warming, we compute the warming tolerance (ΔTniche ) as a thermal vulnerability index, using species' upper thermal limits (the temperature at the warm limit of their distribution range) minus the local habitat temperature actually experienced at a given location. This metric is useful to predict how much more warming species can tolerate before negative impacts are expected to occur. Here we set up a cross-continental transplant experiment involving five regions distributed along a latitudinal gradient across Europe (43° N-61° N). Transplant sites were located in dense and open forests stands, and at forest edges and in interiors. We estimated the warming tolerance for 12 understory plant species common in European temperate forests. During 3 years, we examined the effects of the warming tolerance of each species across all transplanted locations on local plant performance, in terms of survival, height, ground cover, flowering probabilities and flower number. We found that the warming tolerance (ΔTniche ) of the 12 studied understory species was significantly different across Europe and varied by up to 8°C. In general, ΔTniche were smaller (less positive) towards the forest edge and in open stands. Plant performance (growth and reproduction) increased with increasing ΔTniche across all 12 species. Our study demonstrated that ΔTniche of understory plant species varied with macroclimatic differences among regions across Europe, as well as in response to forest microclimates, albeit to a lesser extent. Our findings support the hypothesis that plant performance across species decreases in terms of growth and reproduction as local temperature conditions reach or exceed the warm limit of the focal species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Liping Wei
- CAS Engineering Laboratory for Vegetation Ecosystem Restoration on Islands and Coastal Zones, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Pieter Sanczuk
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Karen De Pauw
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Maria Mercedes Caron
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal (IMBIV), CONICET, Córdoba, Argentina
- European Forest Institute-Mediterranean Facility, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Federico Selvi
- Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Per-Ola Hedwall
- Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Lomma, Sweden
| | - Jörg Brunet
- Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Lomma, Sweden
| | - Sara A O Cousins
- Landscapes, Environment and Geomatics, Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Jan Plue
- Department of Urban and Rural Development, SLU Swedish Biodiversity Centre (CBM), Institutionen för stad och land, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Fabien Spicher
- UMR CNRS 7058 Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés (EDYSAN), Université de Picardie Jules Verne, Amiens, France
| | - Cristina Gasperini
- Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Giovanni Iacopetti
- Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Anna Orczewska
- Institute of Biology, Biotechnology and Environmental Protection, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Silesia, Katowice, Poland
| | - Jaime Uria-Diez
- Department of Forest Sciences, NEIKER-Basque Institute for Agricultural Research and Development, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA), Derio, Spain
| | - Jonathan Lenoir
- UMR CNRS 7058 Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés (EDYSAN), Université de Picardie Jules Verne, Amiens, France
| | - Pieter Vangansbeke
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
- Earth and Life Institute, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
| | - Pieter De Frenne
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
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Puchałka R, Paź-Dyderska S, Dylewski Ł, Czortek P, Vítková M, Sádlo J, Klisz M, Koniakin S, Čarni A, Rašomavičius V, De Sanctis M, Dyderski MK. Forest herb species with similar European geographic ranges may respond differently to climate change. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 905:167303. [PMID: 37742951 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167303] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2023] [Revised: 09/04/2023] [Accepted: 09/21/2023] [Indexed: 09/26/2023]
Abstract
Many phenological studies have shown that spring geophytes are very sensitive to climate change, responding by shifting flowering and fruiting dates. However, there is a gap in knowledge about climatic drivers of their distributions and range shifts under climate change. Here we aimed to estimate climate niche shifts for four widely distributed and common geophytes of the nemoral zone of Europe (Anemone nemorosa, Anemone ranunculoides, Convallaria majalis and Maianthemum bifolium) and to assess the threat level under various climate change scenarios. Using MaxEnt species distribution models and future climate change scenarios we found that the precipitation of the warmest quarter was the most important factor shaping their ranges. All species studied will experience more loss in the 2061-2080 period than in 2041-2060, and under more pessimistic scenarios. M. bifolium will experience the highest loss, followed by A. nemorosa, A. ranunculoides, and the smallest for C. majalis. A. ranunculoides will gain the most, while M. bifolium will have the smallest potential range expansion. Studied species may respond differently to climate change despite similar current distributions and climatic variables affecting their potential distribution. Even slight differences in climatic niches could reduce the overlap of future ranges compared to present. We expect that due to high dependence on the warmest quarter precipitation, summer droughts in the future may be particularly severe for species that prefer moist soils. The lack of adaptation to long-distance migration and limited availability of appropriate soils may limit their migration and lead to a decline in biodiversity and changes in European forests.
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Affiliation(s)
- Radosław Puchałka
- Department of Ecology and Biogeography, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń, Poland; Centre for Climate Change Research, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń, Poland.
| | | | - Łukasz Dylewski
- Department of Zoology, Poznań University of Life Sciences, Poland
| | - Patryk Czortek
- Białowieża Geobotanical Station, Faculty of Biology, University of Warsaw, Białowieża, Poland
| | - Michaela Vítková
- Department of Invasion Ecology, Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Botany, Průhonice, Czech Republic
| | - Jiří Sádlo
- Department of Invasion Ecology, Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Botany, Průhonice, Czech Republic
| | - Marcin Klisz
- Department of Silviculture and Genetics, Forest Research Institute, Poland
| | - Serhii Koniakin
- Department of Phytoecology, Institute for Evolutionary Ecology, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
| | - Andraž Čarni
- Research Center of the Slovenian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Institute of Biology, Ljubljana, Slovenia; University of Nova Gorica, School for Viticulture and Enology, Nova Gorica, Slovenia
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