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Tang TS, Liu Z, Hosni A, Kim J, Saarela O. A marginal structural model for normal tissue complication probability. Biostatistics 2024:kxae019. [PMID: 38981039 DOI: 10.1093/biostatistics/kxae019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/11/2023] [Revised: 05/23/2024] [Accepted: 05/28/2024] [Indexed: 07/11/2024] Open
Abstract
The goal of radiation therapy for cancer is to deliver prescribed radiation dose to the tumor while minimizing dose to the surrounding healthy tissues. To evaluate treatment plans, the dose distribution to healthy organs is commonly summarized as dose-volume histograms (DVHs). Normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) modeling has centered around making patient-level risk predictions with features extracted from the DVHs, but few have considered adapting a causal framework to evaluate the safety of alternative treatment plans. We propose causal estimands for NTCP based on deterministic and stochastic interventions, as well as propose estimators based on marginal structural models that impose bivariable monotonicity between dose, volume, and toxicity risk. The properties of these estimators are studied through simulations, and their use is illustrated in the context of radiotherapy treatment of anal canal cancer patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thai-Son Tang
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, 155 College Street, Toronto, Ontario M5T 3M7, Canada
| | - Zhihui Liu
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, 155 College Street, Toronto, Ontario M5T 3M7, Canada
- Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, 610 University Avenue, Toronto, Ontario M5G 2M9, Canada
| | - Ali Hosni
- Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, 610 University Avenue, Toronto, Ontario M5G 2M9, Canada
- Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, 149 College Street, Toronto, Ontario M5T 1P5, Canada
| | - John Kim
- Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, 610 University Avenue, Toronto, Ontario M5G 2M9, Canada
- Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, 149 College Street, Toronto, Ontario M5T 1P5, Canada
| | - Olli Saarela
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, 155 College Street, Toronto, Ontario M5T 3M7, Canada
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Seaton KE, Huang Y, Karuna S, Heptinstall JR, Brackett C, Chiong K, Zhang L, Yates NL, Sampson M, Rudnicki E, Juraska M, deCamp AC, Edlefsen PT, Mullins JI, Williamson C, Rossenkhan R, Giorgi EE, Kenny A, Angier H, Randhawa A, Weiner JA, Rojas M, Sarzotti-Kelsoe M, Zhang L, Sawant S, Ackerman ME, McDermott AB, Mascola JR, Hural J, McElrath MJ, Andrew P, Hidalgo JA, Clark J, Laher F, Orrell C, Frank I, Gonzales P, Edupuganti S, Mgodi N, Corey L, Morris L, Montefiori D, Cohen MS, Gilbert PB, Tomaras GD. Pharmacokinetic serum concentrations of VRC01 correlate with prevention of HIV-1 acquisition. EBioMedicine 2023; 93:104590. [PMID: 37300931 PMCID: PMC10363420 DOI: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2023.104590] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2022] [Revised: 04/06/2023] [Accepted: 04/12/2023] [Indexed: 06/12/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The phase 2b proof-of-concept Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials showed that VRC01, an anti-HIV-1 broadly neutralising antibody (bnAb), prevented acquisition of HIV-1 sensitive to VRC01. To inform future study design and dosing regimen selection of candidate bnAbs, we investigated the association of VRC01 serum concentration with HIV-1 acquisition using AMP trial data. METHODS The case-control sample included 107 VRC01 recipients who acquired HIV-1 and 82 VRC01 recipients who remained without HIV-1 during the study. We measured VRC01 serum concentrations with a qualified pharmacokinetic (PK) Binding Antibody Multiplex Assay. We employed nonlinear mixed effects PK modelling to estimate daily-grid VRC01 concentrations. Cox regression models were used to assess the association of VRC01 concentration at exposure and baseline body weight, with the hazard of HIV-1 acquisition and prevention efficacy as a function of VRC01 concentration. We also compared fixed dosing vs. body weight-based dosing via simulations. FINDINGS Estimated VRC01 concentrations in VRC01 recipients without HIV-1 were higher than those in VRC01 recipients who acquired HIV-1. Body weight was inversely associated with HIV-1 acquisition among both placebo and VRC01 recipients but did not modify the prevention efficacy of VRC01. VRC01 concentration was inversely correlated with HIV-1 acquisition, and positively correlated with prevention efficacy of VRC01. Simulation studies suggest that fixed dosing may be comparable to weight-based dosing in overall predicted prevention efficacy. INTERPRETATION These findings suggest that bnAb serum concentration may be a useful marker for dosing regimen selection, and operationally efficient fixed dosing regimens could be considered for future trials of HIV-1 bnAbs. FUNDING Was provided by the National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) (UM1 AI068614, to the HIV Vaccine Trials Network [HVTN]; UM1 AI068635, to the HVTN Statistical Data and Management Center [SDMC], Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center [FHCC]; 2R37 054165 to the FHCC; UM1 AI068618, to HVTN Laboratory Center, FHCC; UM1 AI068619, to the HPTN Leadership and Operations Center; UM1 AI068613, to the HIV Prevention Trials Network [HPTN] Laboratory Center; UM1 AI068617, to the HPTN SDMC; and P30 AI027757, to the Center for AIDS Research, Duke University (AI P30 AI064518) and University of Washington (P30 AI027757) Centers for AIDS Research; R37AI054165 from NIAID to the FHCC; and OPP1032144 CA-VIMC Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kelly E Seaton
- Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Durham, NC, 27710, USA.
| | - Yunda Huang
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA; Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA.
| | - Shelly Karuna
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - Jack R Heptinstall
- Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Durham, NC, 27710, USA
| | - Caroline Brackett
- Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Durham, NC, 27710, USA
| | - Kelvin Chiong
- Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Durham, NC, 27710, USA
| | - Lily Zhang
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - Nicole L Yates
- Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Durham, NC, 27710, USA
| | - Mark Sampson
- Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Durham, NC, 27710, USA
| | - Erika Rudnicki
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - Michal Juraska
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - Allan C deCamp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - Paul T Edlefsen
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - James I Mullins
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA; Departments of Microbiology and Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| | - Carolyn Williamson
- Division of Medical Virology, Institute of Infectious Disease & Molecular Medicine, University of Cape Town and National Health Laboratory Service, South Africa
| | - Raabya Rossenkhan
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - Elena E Giorgi
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - Avi Kenny
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| | - Heather Angier
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - April Randhawa
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - Joshua A Weiner
- Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, 03755, USA
| | - Michelle Rojas
- Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Durham, NC, 27710, USA
| | - Marcella Sarzotti-Kelsoe
- Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Durham, NC, 27710, USA
| | - Lu Zhang
- Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Durham, NC, 27710, USA
| | - Sheetal Sawant
- Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Durham, NC, 27710, USA
| | | | | | | | - John Hural
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - M Julianna McElrath
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | | | | | - Jesse Clark
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Disease and Department of Family Medicine in the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Fatima Laher
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit (PHRU), Wits Health Consortium, Soweto, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Catherine Orrell
- Desmond Tutu Health Foundation, University of Cape Town (Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine, and Department of Medicine), Observatory, 7925, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Ian Frank
- Penn Center for AIDS Research, Infectious Disease Division, University of Pennsylvania, 3400 Civic Center Boulevard Building 421, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA
| | - Pedro Gonzales
- Asociacion Civil Impacta Salud y Educación, San Miguel Clinical Research Center, Lima, Peru
| | - Srilatha Edupuganti
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Nyaradzo Mgodi
- University of Zimbabwe-University of California San Francisco (UZ-UCSF) Collaborative Research Programme, Harare, Zimbabwe, South Africa
| | - Lawrence Corey
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA; Departments of Medicine and Laboratory Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA; Division of Medical Virology, University of Cape Town, Anzio Road, Observatory, 7925, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Lynn Morris
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases, National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, 2192, South Africa; Antibody Immunity Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2000, South Africa; Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, 4041, South Africa
| | - David Montefiori
- Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Durham, NC, 27710, USA
| | - Myron S Cohen
- Institute of Global Health and Infectious Diseases, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599, USA
| | - Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA; Departments of Microbiology and Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| | - Georgia D Tomaras
- Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Durham, NC, 27710, USA.
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