Association between recent internal travel and malaria in Ugandan highland and highland fringe areas

Livelihood activities, human mobility, and risk of malaria infection in elimination settings: a case-control study

BACKGROUND

Livelihood activities and human movements participate in the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases and influence malaria risk in elimination settings. In Saudi Arabia, where malaria transmission intensity varies geographically, it is vital to understand the components driving transmission within specific areas. In addition, shared social, behavioural, and occupational characteristics within communities may provoke the risk of malaria infection. This study aims to understand the relationship between human mobility, livelihood activities, and the risk of malaria infection in the border region of Jazan to facilitate further strategic malaria interventions. In addition, the study will complement and reinforce the existing efforts to eliminate malaria on the Saudi and Yemen border by providing a deeper understanding of human movement and livelihood activities.

METHODS

An unmatched case-control study was conducted. A total of 261 participants were recruited for the study, including 81 cases of confirmed malaria through rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and microscopy and 180 controls in the Baish Governorate in Jazan Provinces, Saudi Arabia. Individuals who received malaria tests were interviewed regarding their livelihood activities and recent movement (travel history). A questionnaire was administered, and the data was captured electronically. STATA software version 16 was used to analyse the data. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to determine if engaging in agricultural activities such as farming and animal husbandry, recent travel history outside of the home village within the last 30 days and participating in spiritual gatherings were related to malaria infection status.

RESULTS

A logistical regression model was used to investigate components associated with malaria infection. After adjusting several confounding factors, individuals who reported travelling away from their home village in the last 30 days OR 11.5 (95% CI 4.43-29.9), and those who attended a seasonal night spiritual gathering OR 3.04 (95% CI 1.10-8.42), involved in animal husbandry OR 2.52 (95% CI 1.10-5.82), and identified as male OR 4.57 (95% CI 1.43-14.7), were more likely to test positive for malaria infection.

CONCLUSION

Human movement and livelihood activities, especially at nighttime, should be considered malaria risk factors in malaria elimination settings, mainly when the targeted area is limited to a confined borderland area.

The impact of reactive case detection on malaria transmission in Zanzibar in the presence of human mobility

Malaria persists at low levels on Zanzibar despite the use of vector control and case management. We use a metapopulation model to investigate the role of human mobility in malaria persistence on Zanzibar, and the impact of reactive case detection. The model was parameterized using survey data on malaria prevalence, reactive case detection, and travel history. We find that in the absence of imported cases from mainland Tanzania, malaria would likely cease to persist on Zanzibar. We also investigate potential intervention scenarios that may lead to elimination, especially through changes to reactive case detection. While we find that some additional cases are removed by reactive case detection, a large proportion of cases are missed due to many infections having a low parasite density that go undetected by rapid diagnostic tests, a low rate of those infected with malaria seeking treatment, and a low rate of follow up at the household level of malaria cases detected at health facilities. While improvements in reactive case detection would lead to a reduction in malaria prevalence, none of the intervention scenarios tested here were sufficient to reach elimination. Imported cases need to be treated to have a substantial impact on prevalence.

Survey and Analysis of Chemoprophylaxis Policies for Domestic Travel in Malaria-Endemic Countries

The prevention of malaria in travelers with the use of antimalarials often occurs in connection with international travel to areas of significant risk of infection. Although these travelers sometimes cause outbreaks in their malaria-free home countries, the cardinal objective of prescribed chemoprophylaxis is to protect the traveler from patent malaria during travel. Here we consider the chemoprophylaxis of domestic travelers from malaria-free but -receptive areas within malaria-endemic countries. The main objective in this setting is the protection of those areas from reintroduced malaria transmission. In order to better understand policy and practices in this regard, we surveyed malaria prevention and treatment guidelines of 36 malaria-endemic countries and 2 that have recently eliminated malaria (Sri Lanka, China) for recommendations regarding malaria chemoprophylaxis for domestic travel. Among them, just 8 provided specific and positive recommendations, 1 recommended without specific guidance, and 4 advised against the practice. Most nations (25/38; 66%) did not mention chemoprophylaxis for domestic travel, though many of those did offer guidance for international travel. The few positive recommendations for domestic travel were dominated by the suppressive prophylaxis options of daily doxycycline or atovaquone-proguanil or weekly mefloquine. The incomplete protection afforded by these strategies, along with impractical dosing in connection with the typically brief domestic travel, may in part explain the broad lack of policies and practices across malaria-endemic nations regarding chemoprophylaxis.

High asymptomatic malaria among seasonal migrant workers departing to home from malaria endemic areas in northwest Ethiopia

Background

In Ethiopia, thousands of seasonal migrant workers travel from non-malaria or mild malaria transmission areas to malaria-endemic areas for seasonal farm activities. Most of these migrants stay in the farm areas for land preparation, plowing, planting, weeding, and harvesting for a specific period and return to their living areas. However, there is limited evidence of how seasonal migrant workers contribute to the transmission of malaria to new or less malaria transmission areas.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted at the departure phase of seasonal migrant workers in the Metema district from September 2018 to October 2019. A total of 1208 seasonal migrant workers were interviewed during their departure from farm sites to their homes. The face-to-face interviews were performed using a pretested structured questionnaire. Moreover, blood samples were collected from each study participant for microscopic malaria parasite examination. The data were fitted with the logistic regression model to estimate the predictors of malaria transmission.

Results

At departure to home, the prevalence of malaria among seasonal migrant workers was 17.5% (15.6–19.45%). Approximately 71.80% (177/212) of the cases were Plasmodium falciparum, and 28.20% (35/212) were Plasmodium vivax. Most seasonal migrant workers 934 (77.4%) were from rural residences and highlanders 660 (55%). Most 661 (55.4%) of the migrants visited two and more farm sites during their stay at development corridors for harvesting activities. Approximately 116 (54.7%) asymptomatic malaria cases returned to the Dembia 46 (21.7%), Chilaga 46 (19.8%) and Metema 28 (13.2%) districts.

Conclusion

In this study, asymptomatic malaria remains high among seasonal migrant workers departing to home from malaria endemic areas. This may fuel a resurgence of malaria transmission in the high lands and cause challenges to the country's malaria prevention and elimination efforts. Hence, tailored interventions for seasonal migrant workers could be in place to enhance malaria control and elimination in Ethiopia, such as asymptomatic malaria test and treat positive cases at departure and transit, and integration between malaria officers at their origin and departure for further follow-up to decrease any risk of spread at the origin.

Challenges and opportunities for use of long-lasting insecticidal nets to prevent malaria during overnight travel in Uganda: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Travel is a well-recognized risk factor for malaria. Within sub-Saharan Africa, travellers from areas of lower to higher transmission intensity are potentially at high risk of malaria. Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are the primary tool for prevention of malaria, and their widespread use has contributed to substantial reductions in malaria burden. However, travellers often fail to use LLINs. To further explore the challenges and opportunities of using LLINs, travellers were interviewed in Uganda.

METHODS

In August and September 2019, 20 participants attending outpatient clinics at Naguru General Hospital in Kampala with a history of travel out of Kampala within the previous 60 days were purposively selected. Data were collected through in-depth interviews and analysed thematically using NVivo 12.

RESULTS

Of the 20 participants, 13 were male. Thirteen of the 20 participants tested positive for malaria by microscopy, and 5 reported using of LLINs during travel. The main reasons for travel were to attend social events (weddings, funerals, overnight prayers) and for work. travellers who attended social events reported using LLINs less commonly than those who travelled for work. Challenges to using LLINs during travel included: (1) limited access to LLINs; (2) challenges in planning ahead of travel; (3) lack of space or ability to hang LLINs while travelling; (4) impression that LLINs in lodging places were unhygienic; (5) cultural beliefs discouraging use of LLINs during social events; (6) participation in overnight ceremonies; and (7) doubts about efficacy of LLINs. Positive factors influencing use of LLINs during travel included knowledge regarding malaria prevention and good affordability and availability of LLINs.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite good traveller knowledge regarding malaria control measures, use of LLINs was limited. Use of LLINs in the prevention of malaria among travellers from low to high transmission settings needs to be prioritized. This calls for increased behaviour change oriented communication to improve traveller preparedness and consideration of use of repellents in situations where LLINs may not be feasible. The Uganda Ministry of Health and Malaria Control Division should use educational messages to increase awareness about the risks of getting malaria during overnight travel through the media. Truck drivers should be sensitized through their companies to use the available space at the back of the trucks for hanging nets and consider using pop-up nets.

Malaria Infection is High at Transit and Destination Phases Among Seasonal Migrant Workers in Development Corridors of Northwest Ethiopia: A Repeated Cross-Sectional Study

Purpose

Malaria is a leading public health problem in Ethiopia. Every year, thousands of seasonal farm workers travel to farm corridors in Northwest Ethiopia and fall at risk of malaria infection. However, the magnitude of malaria infection and risk factors during harvest time were not well identified. This study aimed at estimating the prevalence and risk factors of malaria infection among seasonal migrant workers in Northwest Ethiopia.

Methods

A repeated cross-sectional study was conducted at transit and destination phases in Metema district from September 15, 2018 to October 30, 2019. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire. A capillary blood sample was collected to examine infection with malaria parasite using a microscope. A multivariate logistic regression technique was used to determine risk factors.

Results

The malaria prevalence at transit and destination phases among migrant workers was 13.5% (95% CI: 12.07–14.93%) and 18.7% (95% CI: 16.40–21.02%), respectively. The combined prevalence was 16.1% (95% CI: 14.67–17.63%). The odds of malaria infection among migrant workers at the destination phase was 1.5 (OR=1.5, 95% CI 1.167–1.846) times higher compared to the transit phase. Education (AOR=8.198; 95% CI: 4.318–15.564), knowledge of antimalarial drugs (AOR=2.4; 95% CI: 1.43–3.95), and use of long-lasting insecticidal nets (AOR=5.0; 95% CI: 3.34–4.43) were significantly associated with malaria infection at migration phases.

Conclusion

This study showed that the burden of malaria among seasonal migrant workers was high at transit and destination phases. Malaria prevalence was higher at the destination phase compared to the transit phase. A tailored malaria prevention intervention is needed including awareness creation, screening, treatment, repellent, and prophylaxis at both phases to reduce malaria infections.

Quantifying individual variability in exposure risk to mosquito bites in the Cascades region, Burkina Faso

Background

The Cascades region, Burkina Faso, has a high malaria burden despite reported high insecticide-treated mosquito net (ITN) use. Human and vector activities outside the hours when indoor interventions offer direct protection from infectious bites potentially increase exposure risk to bites from malaria-transmitting Anopheles mosquitoes. This work investigated the degree of variation in human behaviour both between individuals and through time (season) to quantify how it impacts exposure to malaria vectors.

Methods

Patterns in human overnight activity (18:00–06:00) to quantify time spent using an ITN across 7 successive nights in two rural communities, Niakore (N = 24 participants) and Toma (71 participants), were observed in the dry and rainy seasons, between 2017 and 2018. Hourly human landing Anopheles mosquito catches were conducted in Niakore specifically, and Cascades region generally, between 2016 and 2017. Data were statistically combined to estimate seasonal variation in time spent outdoors and Anopheles bites received per person per night (bpppn).

Results

Substantial variability in exposure to outdoor Anopheles bites was detected within and between communities across seasons. In October, when Anopheles densities are highest, an individual’s risk of Anopheles bites ranged from 2.2 to 52.2 bites per person per night (bpppn) within the same week with variable risk dependent on hours spent indoors. Comparably higher outdoor human activity was observed in April and July but, due to lower Anopheles densities estimated, bpppn were 0.2–4.7 and 0.5–32.0, respectively. Males and people aged over 21 years were predicted to receive more bites in both sentinel villages.

Conclusion

This work presents one of the first clear descriptions of the degree of heterogeneity in time spent outdoors between people and across the year. Appreciation of sociodemographic, cultural and entomological activities will help refine approaches to vector control.

Association between recent overnight travel and use of long-lasting insecticidal nets in rural Uganda: a prospective cohort study in Tororo

Background

The burden of malaria in Uganda remains high, but has become increasingly heterogenous following intensified malaria control. Travel within Uganda is recognized as a risk factor for malaria, but behaviours associated with travel are not well-understood. To address this knowledge gap, malaria-relevant behaviours of cohort participants were assessed during travel and at home in Uganda.

Methods

Residents from 80 randomly selected households in Nagongera sub-county, Tororo district were enrolled into a cohort to study malaria in rural Uganda. All participants were given long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) at enrolment and were evaluated every 4 weeks at the study clinic. Participants were asked if they had travelled overnight from their home, and if so, a questionnaire was administered to capture information on travel details and behaviours. Behaviour while travelling was assessed within 4 weeks following travel during the study clinic visit. Behaviour while at home was assessed using a similar questionnaire during two-weekly home visits. Behaviours while travelling vs at home were compared using log binomial regression models with generalized estimating equations adjusting for repeated measures in the same individual. Analysis of factors associated with LLIN adherence, such as destination and duration of travel, time to bed during travel, gender and age at time of travel, were assessed using log binomial regression models with generalized estimating equations adjusting for repeated measures in the same individual.

Results

Between October 2017 and October 2019, 527 participants were enrolled and assessed for travel. Of these, 123 (23.2%) reported taking 211 overnight trips; 149 (70.6%) trips were within Tororo. Participants were less likely to use LLINs when travelling than when at home (41.0% vs. 56.2%, relative risk [RR] 0.73, 95% CI 0.60–0.89, p = 0.002); this difference was noted for women (38.8% vs 59.2%, RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.52–0.83, p = 0.001) but not men (48.3% vs 46.6%, RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.67–1.40, p = 0.85). In an adjusted analysis, factors associated with LLIN use when travelling included destination (travelling to districts not receiving indoor residual spraying [IRS] 65.8% vs Tororo district 32.2%, RR 1.80, 95% CI 1.31–2.46, p < 0.001) and duration of travel (> 7 nights 60.3% vs one night 24.4%, RR 1.97, 95% CI 1.07–3.64, p = 0.03).

Conclusions

Travellers, particularly women, were less likely to use LLINs when travelling than when at home. LLIN adherence was higher among those who travelled to non-IRS districts and for more than 1 week, suggesting that perceived malaria risk influences LLIN use. Strategies are needed to raise awareness of the importance of using LLINs while travelling.

Recent Travel History and Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Infection in a Region of Heterogenous Transmission in Southern Province, Zambia

As Zambia continues to reduce its malaria incidence and target elimination in Southern Province, there is a need to identify factors that can reintroduce parasites and sustain malaria transmission. To examine the relative contributions of types of human mobility on malaria prevalence, this analysis quantifies the proportion of the population having recently traveled during both peak and nonpeak transmission seasons over the course of 2 years and assesses the relationship between short-term travel and malaria infection status. Among all residents targeted by mass drug administration in the Lake Kariba region of Southern Province, 602,620 rapid diagnostic tests and recent travel histories were collected during four campaign rounds occurring between December 2014 and February 2016. Rates of short-term travel in the previous 2 weeks fluctuated seasonally from 0.3% to 1.2%. Travel was significantly associated with prevalent malaria infection both seasonally and overall (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 2.55; 95% CI: 2.28-2.85). The strength of association between travel and malaria infection varied by travelers' origin and destination, with those recently traveling to high-prevalence areas from low-prevalence areas experiencing the highest odds of malaria infection (AOR: 7.38). Long-lasting insecticidal net usage while traveling was associated with a relative reduction in infections (AOR: 0.74) compared with travelers not using a net. Although travel was directly associated with only a small fraction of infections, importation of malaria via human movement may play an increasingly important role in this elimination setting as transmission rates continue to decline.

Managing the spread of disease with mobile phone data

While human mobility has important benefits for economic growth, it can generate negative externalities. This paper studies the effect of mobility on the spread of disease in a low-incidence setting when people do not internalize their risks to others. Using malaria as a case study and 15 billion mobile phone records across nine million SIM cards, this paper quantifies the relationship between travel and the spread of disease. The estimates indicate that an infected traveler contributes to 1.66 additional cases reported in the health facility at the traveler's destination. This paper develops a simulation-based policy tool that uses mobile phone data to inform strategic targeting of travelers based on their origins and destinations. The simulations suggest that targeting informed by mobile phone data could reduce the caseload by 50 percent more than current strategies that rely only on previous incidence.

Travel Is a Key Risk Factor for Malaria Transmission in Pre-Elimination Settings in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Review of the Literature and Meta-Analysis

By sustaining transmission or causing malaria outbreaks, imported malaria undermines malaria elimination efforts. Few studies have examined the impact of travel on malaria epidemiology. We conducted a literature review and meta-analysis of studies investigating travel as a risk factor for malaria infection in sub-Saharan Africa using PubMed. We identified 22 studies and calculated a random-effects meta-analysis pooled odds ratio (OR) of 3.77 (95% CI: 2.49–5.70), indicating that travel is a significant risk factor for malaria infection. Odds ratios were particularly high in urban locations when travel was to rural areas, to more endemic/high transmission areas, and in young children. Although there was substantial heterogeneity in the magnitude of association across the studies, the pooled estimate and directional consistency support travel as an important risk factor for malaria infection.

Malaria infection prevalence and sensitivity of reactive case detection in Zanzibar

BACKGROUND

Reactive case detection (RCD) is a commonly used strategy for malaria surveillance and response in elimination settings. Many approaches to RCD assume detectable infections are clustered within and around homes of passively detected cases (index households), which has been evaluated in a number of settings with disparate results.

METHODS

Household questionnaires and diagnostic testing were conducted following RCD investigations in Zanzibar, Tanzania, including the index household and up to 9 additional neighboring households.

RESULTS

Of 12,487 participants tested by malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT), 3·2% of those residing in index households and 0·4% of those residing in non-index households tested positive (OR = 8·4; 95%CI: 5·7, 12·5). Of 6,281 participants tested by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), 8·4% of those residing in index households and 1·3% of those residing in non-index households tested positive (OR = 7·1; 95%CI: 6·1, 10·9). Within households of index cases defined as imported, odds of qPCR-positivity amongst members reporting recent travel were 1·4 times higher than among those without travel history (95%CI: 0·2, 4·4). Amongst non-index households, odds of qPCR-detectable infection were no different between households located within 50 m of the index household as compared with those located farther away (OR = 0·8, 95%CI: 0·5, 1·4). Sensitivity of RDT to detect qPCR-detectable infections was 34% (95%CI: 26·4, 42·3).

CONCLUSIONS

Malaria prevalence in index households in Zanzibar is much higher than in non-index households, in which prevalence is very low. Travelers represent a high-risk population. Low sensitivity of RDTs due to a high prevalence of low-density infections results in an RCD system missing a large proportion of the parasite reservoir.

Risk factors for Plasmodium falciparum infection in the Kenyan Highlands: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

Malaria transmission in African highland areas can be prone to epidemics, with minor fluctuations in temperature or altitude resulting in highly heterogeneous transmission. In the Kenyan Highlands, where malaria prevalence has been increasing, characterising malaria incidence and identifying risk factors for infection is complicated by asymptomatic infection.

METHODS

This all-age cohort study, one element of the Malaria Transmission Consortium, involved monthly follow-up of 3155 residents of the Kisii and Rachuonyo South districts during June 2009-June 2010. Participants were tested for malaria using rapid diagnostic testing at every visit, regardless of symptoms.

RESULTS

The incidence of Plasmodium falciparum infection was 0.2 cases per person, although infections were clustered within individuals and over time, with the majority of infections detected in the last month of the cohort study. Overall, incidence was higher in the Rachuonyo district and infections were detected most frequently in 5-10-year-olds. The majority of infections were asymptomatic (58%). Travel away from the study area was a notable risk factor for infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Identifying risk factors for malaria infection can help to guide targeting of interventions to populations most likely to be exposed to malaria.

Association Between Recent Overnight Travel and Risk of Malaria: A Prospective Cohort Study at 3 Sites in Uganda

Background

Human movement can undermine malaria control efforts. However, understanding of the association between travel and malaria infection in Africa is limited. We evaluated the association between recent overnight travel and malaria incidence in Uganda.

Methods

All children aged 0.5-10 years and 1 adult living in 266 randomly selected households within 3 different regions of Uganda were followed up prospectively. Information on overnight travel was collected in 2015-2016. Malaria, defined as fever with parasites detected by microscopy, was measured using passive surveillance.

Results

At least 1 overnight trip was reported by 64 of 275 (23.3%) participants in Walukuba, 37 of 317 (11.7%) in Nagongera, and 19 of 314 (6.1%) in Kihihi. Among individuals who traveled, the incidence of malaria was higher in the first 60 days after traveling, compared with periods without recent travel at all 3 sites (overall, 1.15 vs 0.33 episodes per person-year; incidence rate ratio, 3.53; 95% confidence interval, 1.85-6.73; P < .001). Risk factors for malaria within 60 days after overnight travel included young age (19.5% in children vs 4.9% in adults; odds ratio, 5.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.34-21.0; P = .02) and not using an insecticide-treated net during travel (18.0% for no use vs 4.1% for any use; 5.10; 1.07-24.5; P = .04).

Conclusions

Recent overnight travel was associated with a higher incidence of malaria. Individuals who travel may represent a high-risk group that could be targeted for malaria control interventions, particularly use of insecticide-treated nets.

Study of the epidemiological behavior of malaria in the Darien Region, Panama. 2015-2017

BACKGROUND

Malaria is endemic in Darién and an assessment of the different factors affecting its epidemiology is crucial for the development of adequate strategies of surveillance, prevention, and disease control. The objective of this study was to determine the main characteristics of the epidemiological behavior of malaria in the Darien region.

METHODS

This research was comprised of a retrospective analysis to determine the incidence and malaria distribution in the Darien region from 2015 to 2017. We evaluated malaria indicators, disease distribution, incidence (by age group and sex), diagnostic methods, treatment, and control measures. In addition, we examined the cross-border migration activity and its possible contribution to the maintenance and distribution of malaria.

RESULTS

During the period of 2015-2017, we examined 41,141 thick blood smear samples, out of which 501 tested positive for malaria. Plasmodium vivax was responsible for 92.2% of those infections. Males comprised 62.7% of the total diagnosed cases. Meanwhile, a similar percentage, 62.7%, of the total cases were registered in economically active ages. The more frequent symptoms included fever (99.4%) and chills (97.4%), with 53.1% of cases registering between 2,000 and 6,000 parasites/μl of blood. The annual parasitic incidence (API) average was 3.0/1,000 inhabitants, while the slide positivity rate (SPR) was 1.2% and the annual blood examination rate (ABER) 22.5%. In Darién there is a constant internal and cross-border migration movement between Panama and Colombia. Malaria control measures consisted of the active and passive search of suspected cases and of the application of vector control measures.

CONCLUSION

This study provides an additional perspective on malaria epidemiology in Darién. Additional efforts are required to intensify malaria surveillance and to achieve an effective control, eventually moving closer to the objective of malaria elimination. At the same time, there is a need for more eco-epidemiological, entomological and migratory studies to determine how these factors contribute to the patterns of maintenance and dissemination of malaria.

Human behaviour and residual malaria transmission in Zanzibar: findings from in-depth interviews and direct observation of community events

Background

Zanzibar has maintained malaria prevalence below 1% for the past decade, yet elimination remains elusive despite high coverage of core vector control interventions. As part of a study investigating the magnitude and drivers of residual transmission in Zanzibar, qualitative methods were utilized to better understand night time activities and sleeping patterns, individual and community-level risk perceptions, and malaria prevention practices.

Methods

A total of 62 in-depth interviews were conducted with community members and local leaders across six sites on Unguja Island, Zanzibar. Twenty semi-structured community observations of night-time activities and special events were conducted to complement interview findings. Data were transcribed verbatim, coded, and analysed using a thematic approach.

Results

Participants reported high levels of ITN use, but noted gaps in protection, particularly when outdoors or away from home. Routine household and community activities were common in evenings before bed and early mornings, while livelihood activities and special events lasted all or most of the night. Gender variation was reported, with men routinely spending more time away from home than women and children. Outdoor sleeping was reported during special events, such as weddings, funerals, and religious ceremonies. Participants described having difficulty preventing mosquito bites while outdoors, travelling, or away from home, and perceived higher risk of malaria infection during these times. Travel and migration emerged as a crucial issue and participants viewed seasonal workers coming from mainland Tanzania as more likely to have a malaria infection and less likely to be connected to prevention and treatment services in Zanzibar. Some community leaders reported taking the initiative to register seasonal workers coming into their community and linking them to testing and treatment services.

Conclusions

Targeting malaria interventions effectively is critical and should be informed by a clear understanding of relevant human behaviour. These findings highlight malaria prevention gaps in Zanzibar, and the importance of identifying new approaches to complement current interventions and accelerate the final phases of malaria elimination. Development and deployment of complementary interventions should consider human behaviour, including gender norms, that can influence exposure to malaria vectors and prevention practices. Expansion of community-level programmes targeting travellers and seasonal workers should also be explored.

Mapping road network communities for guiding disease surveillance and control strategies

Human mobility is increasing in its volume, speed and reach, leading to the movement and introduction of pathogens through infected travelers. An understanding of how areas are connected, the strength of these connections and how this translates into disease spread is valuable for planning surveillance and designing control and elimination strategies. While analyses have been undertaken to identify and map connectivity in global air, shipping and migration networks, such analyses have yet to be undertaken on the road networks that carry the vast majority of travellers in low and middle income settings. Here we present methods for identifying road connectivity communities, as well as mapping bridge areas between communities and key linkage routes. We apply these to Africa, and show how many highly-connected communities straddle national borders and when integrating malaria prevalence and population data as an example, the communities change, highlighting regions most strongly connected to areas of high burden. The approaches and results presented provide a flexible tool for supporting the design of disease surveillance and control strategies through mapping areas of high connectivity that form coherent units of intervention and key link routes between communities for targeting surveillance.

Population Movement as a Risk Factor for Malaria Infection in High-Altitude Villages of Tahtay-Maychew District, Tigray, Northern Ethiopia: A Case-Control Study

Key goal and targets of the Ethiopia National Malaria Control Program are to achieve malaria elimination within specific geographical areas with historically low malaria transmission and to reach near-zero malaria transmission in the remaining malarious areas by 2020. However, back and forth population movement between high-transmission and low-transmission area imposes challenge on the success of national malaria control programs. Therefore, examining the effect of human movement and identification of at-risk populations is crucial in an elimination setting. A matched case-control study was conducted among 520 study participants at a community level in low malaria transmission settings in northern Ethiopia. Study participants who received a malaria test were interviewed regarding their recent travel history. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were carried out to determine if the reported travel was related to malaria infection. Younger age (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 3.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.73, 5.89) and travel in the previous month (AOR = 11.40, 95% CI: 6.91, 18.82) were statistically significant risk factors for malaria infection. Other statistically significant factors, including lower educational level (AOR = 2.21, 95% CI: 1.26, 3.86) and nonagricultural in occupation (AOR = 2.0, 95% CI: 1.02, 3.94), were also found as risk factors for malaria infection. Generally, travel history was found to be a strong predictor for malaria acquisition in the high-altitude villages. Therefore, besides the existing efforts in endemic areas, targeting those who frequently travel to malarious areas is crucial to reduce malaria infection risks and possibility of local transmissions in high-altitude areas of northern Ethiopia.

Travel and the emergence of high-level drug resistance in Plasmodium falciparum in southwest Uganda: results from a population-based study

BACKGROUND

The I164L mutation on the dhfr gene confers high level resistance to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) but it is rare in Africa except in a cluster of reports where prevalence >10% in highland areas of southwest Uganda and eastern Rwanda. The occurrence of the dhfr I164L mutation was investigated in community surveys in this area and examined the relationship to migration.

METHODS

A cross-sectional prevalence survey was undertaken in among villages within the catchment areas of two health facilities in a highland site (Kabale) and a highland fringe site (Rukungiri) in 2007. Sociodemographic details, including recent migration, were collected for each person included in the study. A total of 206 Plasmodium falciparum positive subjects were detected by rapid diagnostic test; 203 in Rukungiri and 3 in Kabale. Bloodspot samples were taken and were screened for dhfr I164L.

RESULTS

Sequence analysis confirmed the presence of the I164L mutations in twelve P. falciparum positive samples giving an estimated prevalence of 8.6% in Rukungiri. Of the three parasite positive samples in Kabale, none had I164L mutations. Among the twelve I164L positives three were male, ages ranged from 5 to 90 years of age. None of those with the I164L mutation had travelled in the 8 weeks prior to the survey, although three were from households from which at least one household member had travelled during that period. Haplotypes were determined in non-mixed infections and showed the dhfr I164L mutation occurs in both as a N51I + S108N + I164L haplotype (n = 2) and N51I + C59R + S108N + I164L haplotype (n = 5). Genotyping of flanking microsatellite markers showed that the I164L occurred independently on the triple mutant (N51I, C59R + S108N) and double mutant (N51I + S108N) background.

CONCLUSIONS

There is sustained local transmission of parasites with the dhfr I164L mutation in Rukungiri and no evidence to indicate its occurrence is associated with recent travel to highly resistant neighbouring areas. The emergence of a regional cluster of I164L in SW Uganda and Rwanda indicates that transmission of I164L is facilitated by strong drug pressure in low transmission areas potentially catalysed in those areas by travel and the importation of parasites from relatively higher transmission settings.

Malaria risk in young male travellers but local transmission persists: a case-control study in low transmission Namibia

Background

A key component of malaria elimination campaigns is the identification and targeting of high risk populations. To characterize high risk populations in north central Namibia, a prospective health facility-based case–control study was conducted from December 2012–July 2014. Cases (n = 107) were all patients presenting to any of the 46 health clinics located in the study districts with a confirmed Plasmodium infection by multi-species rapid diagnostic test (RDT). Population controls (n = 679) for each district were RDT negative individuals residing within a household that was randomly selected from a census listing using a two-stage sampling procedure. Demographic, travel, socio-economic, behavioural, climate and vegetation data were also collected. Spatial patterns of malaria risk were analysed. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for malaria.

Results

Malaria risk was observed to cluster along the border with Angola, and travel patterns among cases were comparatively restricted to northern Namibia and Angola. Travel to Angola was associated with excessive risk of malaria in males (OR 43.58 95% CI 2.12–896), but there was no corresponding risk associated with travel by females. This is the first study to reveal that gender can modify the effect of travel on risk of malaria. Amongst non-travellers, male gender was also associated with a higher risk of malaria compared with females (OR 1.95 95% CI 1.25–3.04). Other strong risk factors were sleeping away from the household the previous night, lower socioeconomic status, living in an area with moderate vegetation around their house, experiencing moderate rainfall in the month prior to diagnosis and living <15 km from the Angolan border.

Conclusions

These findings highlight the critical need to target malaria interventions to young male travellers, who have a disproportionate risk of malaria in northern Namibia, to coordinate cross-border regional malaria prevention initiatives and to scale up coverage of prevention measures such as indoor residual spraying and long-lasting insecticide nets in high risk areas if malaria elimination is to be realized.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-017-1719-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Surveillance and response for high-risk populations: what can malaria elimination programmes learn from the experience of HIV?

To eliminate malaria, malaria programmes need to develop new strategies for surveillance and response appropriate for the changing epidemiology that accompanies transmission decline, in which transmission is increasingly driven by population subgroups whose behaviours place them at increased exposure. Conventional tools of malaria surveillance and response are likely not sufficient in many elimination settings for accessing high-risk population subgroups, such as mobile and migrant populations (MMPs), given their greater likelihood of asymptomatic infections, illegal risk behaviours, limited access to public health facilities, and high mobility including extended periods travelling away from home. More adaptive, targeted strategies are needed to monitor transmission and intervention coverage effectively in these groups. Much can be learned from HIV programmes’ experience with “second generation surveillance”, including how to rapidly adapt surveillance and response strategies to changing transmission patterns, biological and behavioural surveys that utilize targeted sampling methods for specific behavioural subgroups, and methods for population size estimation. This paper reviews the strategies employed effectively for HIV programmes and offers considerations and recommendations for adapting them to the malaria elimination context.

Mapping internal connectivity through human migration in malaria endemic countries

Human mobility continues to increase in terms of volumes and reach, producing growing global connectivity. This connectivity hampers efforts to eliminate infectious diseases such as malaria through reintroductions of pathogens, and thus accounting for it becomes important in designing global, continental, regional, and national strategies. Recent works have shown that census-derived migration data provides a good proxy for internal connectivity, in terms of relative strengths of movement between administrative units, across temporal scales. To support global malaria eradication strategy efforts, here we describe the construction of an open access archive of estimated internal migration flows in endemic countries built through pooling of census microdata. These connectivity datasets, described here along with the approaches and methods used to create and validate them, are available both through the WorldPop website and the WorldPop Dataverse Repository.

Identifying Malaria Transmission Foci for Elimination Using Human Mobility Data

Humans move frequently and tend to carry parasites among areas with endemic malaria and into areas where local transmission is unsustainable. Human-mediated parasite mobility can thus sustain parasite populations in areas where they would otherwise be absent. Data describing human mobility and malaria epidemiology can help classify landscapes into parasite demographic sources and sinks, ecological concepts that have parallels in malaria control discussions of transmission foci. By linking transmission to parasite flow, it is possible to stratify landscapes for malaria control and elimination, as sources are disproportionately important to the regional persistence of malaria parasites. Here, we identify putative malaria sources and sinks for pre-elimination Namibia using malaria parasite rate (PR) maps and call data records from mobile phones, using a steady-state analysis of a malaria transmission model to infer where infections most likely occurred. We also examined how the landscape of transmission and burden changed from the pre-elimination setting by comparing the location and extent of predicted pre-elimination transmission foci with modeled incidence for 2009. This comparison suggests that while transmission was spatially focal pre-elimination, the spatial distribution of cases changed as burden declined. The changing spatial distribution of burden could be due to importation, with cases focused around importation hotspots, or due to heterogeneous application of elimination effort. While this framework is an important step towards understanding progressive changes in malaria distribution and the role of subnational transmission dynamics in a policy-relevant way, future work should account for international parasite movement, utilize real time surveillance data, and relax the steady state assumption required by the presented model.

For countries considering pursuing malaria elimination, understanding where malaria transmission occurs is crucial for intervention planning. By identifying the areas that act as sources of malaria parasites, elimination programs can target efforts to end local transmission and achieve nationwide elimination. Mapping parasite sources requires a modeling framework that integrates malaria burden and human movement information, however, as human mobility facilitates parasite spread and drives source-sink disease dynamics. In this study, we present a mathematical model that can be used to identify areas with self-sustaining malaria transmission when analyzed at equilibrium. We demonstrate how this method can inform elimination planning for countries with stable low transmission using data from Namibia. The maps of sources and sinks created using this method can be used to direct policy and target areas with self-sustaining malaria transmission in countries with stable transmission. Finally, we compare the predicted extent of transmission foci with more recent maps of incidence, to determine whether local transmission likely retreated into focal areas and the potential importance of importation.

Application of Serological Tools and Spatial Analysis to Investigate Malaria Transmission Dynamics in Highland Areas of Southwest Uganda

Serological markers, combined with spatial analysis, offer a comparatively more sensitive means by which to measure and detect foci of malaria transmission in highland areas than traditional malariometric indicators. Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence, seroprevalence, and seroconversion rate to P. falciparum merozoite surface protein-1₁₉ (MSP-1₁₉) were measured in a cross-sectional survey to determine differences in transmission between altitudinal strata. Clusters of P. falciparum parasite prevalence and high antibody responses to MSP-1₁₉ were detected and compared. Results show that P. falciparum prevalence and seroprevalence generally decreased with increasing altitude. However, transmission was heterogeneous with hotspots of prevalence and/or seroprevalence detected in both highland and highland fringe altitudes, including a serological hotspot at 2,200 m. Results demonstrate that seroprevalence can be used as an additional tool to identify hotspots of malaria transmission that might be difficult to detect using traditional cross-sectional parasite surveys or through vector studies. Our study findings identify ways in which malaria prevention and control can be more effectively targeted in highland or low transmission areas via serological measures. These tools will become increasingly important for countries with an elimination agenda and/or where malaria transmission is becoming patchy and focal, but receptivity to malaria transmission remains high.

Malaria Parasitemia Among Febrile Patients Seeking Clinical Care at an Outpatient Health Facility in an Urban Informal Settlement Area in Nairobi, Kenya

Nairobi is considered a low-risk area for malaria transmission, but travel can influence transmission of malaria. We investigated the demographic characteristics and travel history of patients with documented fever and malaria in a study clinic in a population-based surveillance system over a 5-year period, January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2011. During the study period, 11,480 (68%) febrile patients had a microscopy test performed for malaria, of which 2,553 (22%) were positive. Malaria was detected year-round with peaks in January, May, and September. Children aged 5–14 years had the highest proportion (28%) of positive results followed by children aged 1–4 years (23%). Almost two-thirds of patients with malaria reported traveling outside Nairobi; 79% of these traveled to three counties in western Kenya. History of recent travel (i.e., in past month) was associated with malaria parasitemia (odds ratio: 10.0, 95% confidence interval: 9.0–11.0). Malaria parasitemia was frequently observed among febrile patients at a health facility in the urban slum of Kibera, Nairobi. The majority of patients had traveled to western Kenya. However, 34% reported no travel history, which raises the possibility of local malaria transmission in this densely populated, urban setting. These findings have important implications for malaria control in large Nairobi settlements.