Environmental risk modelling and potential sand fly vectors of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Chitral district: a leishmanial focal point of mount Tirich Mir, Pakistan

Epidemiology of cutaneous leishmaniasis in children of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

OBJECTIVES

In Pakistan, cutaneous leishmaniasis is an emerging tropical disease and a very high number (>70%) of children are afflicted by this marring infection. This study aimed to scrutinise the prevalence, spatial distribution and socio-demographic and behavioural risk factors associated with cutaneous leishmaniasis in children aged <5-15  years in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

METHODS

A total of 1, 559 clinically confirmed records of children diagnosed with cutaneous leishmaniasis (January-December) from 2020 and 2022 were obtained from selected district hospitals. In addition, a risk factors-related questionnaire was administered to 1, 011 households (400 in 2020 and 611 in 2022) in nine districts during a household survey.

RESULTS

The maximum number of cutaneous leishmaniasis cases was recorded in 2022 (n = 877, 56.25%) as compared to 2020 (n = 682, 43.75%). The hospital records showed a greater number of male patients in the 2022 cohort (n = 603, 68.76%). The highest number of cases were observed in children aged 5-9 years in 2022 (n = 282, 32.16%) and 2020 (n = 255, 37.39%). In 2020 and 2022, cutaneous leishmaniasis cases showed peak aggregation in March (n = 118, 17.3%) and January (n = 322, 36.72%). From a spatial analysis, the maximum number of cutaneous leishmaniasis cases was recorded at 59-1700 m elevation in various land-use/land-cover and climatic regions with quaternary alluvium rock formations. A multivariate logistic regression model analysis of risk factors from the households survey suggested that age group, socio-economic status, construction materials of the house, use of insect repellents, Afghan refugee camps in the village/district, knowledge and biting times of sand flies, frequent use of mosquito bed nets, presence of domestic animals in the house, knowledge of the transmission period and peak month of leishmaniasis infection increased the risk of acquiring cutaneous leishmaniasis (p  value < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Our analysis demonstrated that cutaneous leishmaniasis in children is influenced by a variety of environmental, socio-demographic and behavioural risk factors in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The increase in recorded cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis in children in 2022 compared to 2020 suggests that the infection likely extended to new foci in the province.

Natural products derived steroids as potential anti-leishmanial agents; disease prevalence, underlying mechanisms and future perspectives

Leishmaniasis is a vector-borne infection caused by protozoan parasites from the genus leishmania and is among the most neglected tropical diseases. It is highly prevalent disease, affecting about 350 million population worldwide. Only limited number of anti-leishmanial agents are approved for clinical use till now and they are associated with side effects and have limited efficacy. Subsequently, natural products based discovery of more safe and effective drugs against leishmania is under scientific consideration. Various studies reported the efficacy of natural products against intracellular and extracellular forms of leishmania species. This work is aimed to evaluate current literature focused on the anti-leihmanial efficacy of steroidal moieties from natural products and their mechanism of action. Compounds including steroidal saponins, steroidal alkaloids and phytosterols were found to exhibit considerable anti-leishmanial efficacy. For instance, steroidal saponin, (25R)-spirost-5-en-3b-ol,3-O-α-rhamnopyranosyl-(1 → 4)-α-rhamnopyranosyl-(1 → 4)-[a-rhamnopyranosyl-(1 → 2)]-glucopyranoside isolated from A. paradoxum has completely eradicated Leishmania major promastigotes at 50 µg mL-1 dose. Spirostanic saponins isolated from Solanum paniculatum L. were effective against Leishmania amazonensis promastigotes. Turgidosterones isolated from Panicum turgidum exhibited high leishmanicidal potentials against Leishmania donovani promastigotes with IC50 of 4.95-8.03 µg mL-1 and even better activity against amastigotes exhibiting an IC50 of 4.50-9.29 µg mL-1. Likewise, racemoside-A from Asparagus racemosus was found effective against an antimonial sensitive (AG83) and antimonial resistant (GE1F8R) strains of the L. donovani. Moreover, steroidal alkaloids including hookerianamide-1, hookerianamide-H, hookerianamide-J, hookerianamide-K, dehydrosarsalignone, vagenine-A, sarcovagine-C, holaphylline, saracodine, holamine, 15-α hydroxyholamine, holacurtin, N-desmethyl holacurtine and elasticine has exhibited time and dose-dependent efficacy against various strains of leishmania. β-sitosterol was found active against multiple strains of leishmania. These compounds mainly exhibit their therapeutic efficacy via liberation of ROS, mitochondrial depolarization, morphological and ultra-structural changes, accumulation of lipid droplets, depletion of non-protein thiols and triggering apoptotic pathways. In conclusion, leishmaniasis is a major health problem in many countries. Plants-derived steroids moieties have reveled efficacy against leishmaniasis and is a source of lead compounds. Further detailed molecular studies are warranted for the discovery of more effective and safe anti-leishmanial drugs.

Distribution and Risk of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a zoonotic infection caused by obligate intracellular protozoa of the genus Leishmania. This study aimed to investigate CL in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan and to estimate the risk of epidemics. Clinico-epidemiological data of 3188 CL patients were collected from health facilities in 2021. Risk factors were analyzed using the chi-square test. ArcGIS V.10.7.1 was applied for spatial analysis. The association between CL occurrence and climatic variables was examined by Bayesian geostatistical analysis. The clinical data revealed males or individuals younger than 20 years old were more affected. Most patients presented with a single lesion, and the face was the most attacked body part. CL was prevalent in the southern region in winter. A proportional symbol map, a choropleth map, and a digital elevation model map were built to show the distribution of CL. Focal transmission was predicted by inverse distance weighting interpolation. Cluster and outlier analysis identified clusters in Bannu, Dir Lower, and Mardan, and hotspot analysis suggested Bannu as a high-risk foci. Bayesian geostatistical analysis indicated that increasing precipitation and temperature as well as low altitudes were associated with CL infection. The study has provided important information for public health sectors to develop intervention strategies for future CL epidemics.

Synthesizing the connections between environmental disturbances and zoonotic spillover

Zoonotic spillover is a phenomenon characterized by the transfer of pathogens between different animal species. Most human emerging infectious diseases originate from non-human animals, and human-related environmental disturbances are the driving forces of the emergence of new human pathogens. Synthesizing the sequence of basic events involved in the emergence of new human pathogens is important for guiding the understanding, identification, and description of key aspects of human activities that can be changed to prevent new outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics. This review synthesizes the connections between environmental disturbances and increased risk of spillover events based on the One Health perspective. Anthropogenic disturbances in the environment (e.g., deforestation, habitat fragmentation, biodiversity loss, wildlife exploitation) lead to changes in ecological niches, reduction of the dilution effect, increased contact between humans and other animals, changes in the incidence and load of pathogens in animal populations, and alterations in the abiotic factors of landscapes. These phenomena can increase the risk of spillover events and, potentially, facilitate new infectious disease outbreaks. Using Brazil as a study model, this review brings a discussion concerning anthropogenic activities in the Amazon region and their potential impacts on spillover risk and spread of emerging diseases in this region.

The effect of geo-climatic determinants on the distribution of cutaneous leishmaniasis in a recently emerging focus in eastern Iran

Background

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) has been reported in recent years in South Khorasan Province, a desert region of eastern Iran, where the main species is Leishmania tropica. Little is known of the influence of geography and climate on its distribution, and so this study was conducted to determine geo-climatic factors by using geographic information system.

Methods

The home addresses of patients with CL patients who were diagnosed and notified from 2009 to 2017 were retrieved from the provincial health center and registered on the village/town/city point layer. The effects of mean annual rainfall (MAR) and mean annual humidity (MAH), mean annual temperature (MAT), maximum annual temperature (MaxMAT), minimum annual temperature (MinMAT), mean annual number of high-velocity wind days (MAWD), mean annual frosty days (MAFD) and snowy days (MASD), elevation, soil type and land cover on CL distribution were examined. The geographical analysis was done using ArcMap software, and univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression were applied to determine the factors associated with CL.

Results

A total of 332 CL patients were identified: 197 (59.3%) male and 135 (40.7%) female. Their mean age was 29.3 ± 2.1 years, with age ranging from 10 months to 98 years. CL patients came from a total of 86 villages/towns/cities. By multivariate analysis, the independent factors associated with increased CL were urban setting (OR = 52.102), agricultural land cover (OR = 3.048), and MAWD (OR = 1.004). Elevation was a protective factor only in the univariate analysis (OR = 0.999). Soil type, MAH, MAT, MinMAT, MaxMAT, and MAFD did not influence CL distribution in eastern Iran.

Conclusions

The major risk zones for CL in eastern Iran were urban and agricultural areas with a higher number of windy days at lower altitudes. Control strategies to reduce human vector contact should be focused in these settings.

Graphical abstract

Global potential distribution prediction of Xanthium italicum based on Maxent model

Alien invasive plants pose a threat to global biodiversity and the cost of control continues to rise. Early detection and prediction of potential risk areas are essential to minimize ecological and socio-economic costs. In this study, the Maxent model was used to predict current and future climatic conditions to estimate the potential global distribution of the invasive plant Xanthium italicum. The model consists of 366 occurrence records (10 repeats, 75% for calibration and 25% for verification) and 10 climate prediction variables. According to the model forecast, the distribution of X. italicum was expected to shrink in future climate scenarios with human intervention, which may be mainly caused by the rise in global average annual temperature. The ROC curve showed that the AUC values of the training set and the test set are 0.965 and 0.906, respectively, indicating that the prediction result of this model was excellent. The contribution rates of annual mean temperature, monthly mean diurnal temperature range, standard deviation of temperature seasonal change and annual average precipitation to the geographical distribution of X. italicum were 65.3%, 11.2%, 9.0%, and 7.7%, respectively, and the total contribution rate was 93.2%. These four variables are the dominant environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of X. italicum, and the influence of temperature is greater than that of precipitation. Through our study on the potential distribution prediction of X. italicum under the future climatic conditions, it has contribution for all countries to strengthen its monitoring, prevention and control, including early warning.

Vulnerabilities to and the Socioeconomic and Psychosocial Impacts of the Leishmaniases: A Review

The leishmaniases are a group of four vector-borne neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) with 1.6 billion people in some 100 countries at risk. They occur in certain eco-epidemiological foci that reflect manipulation by human activities, such as migration, urbanization and deforestation, of which poverty, conflict and climate change are key drivers. Given their synergistic impacts, risk factors and the vulnerabilities of poor populations and the launch of a new 2030 roadmap for NTDs in the context of the global sustainability agenda, it is warranted to update the state of knowledge of the leishmaniases and their effects. Using existing literature, we review socioeconomic and psychosocial impacts of leishmaniasis within a framework of risk factors and vulnerabilities to help inform policy interventions. Studies show that poverty is an overarching primary risk factor. Low-income status fosters inadequate housing, malnutrition and lack of sanitation, which create and exacerbate complexities in access to care and treatment outcomes as well as education and awareness. The co-occurrence of the leishmaniases with malnutrition and HIV infection further complicate diagnosis and treatment, leading to poor diagnostic outcomes and therapeutic response. Even with free treatment, households may suffer catastrophic health expenditure from direct and indirect medical costs, which compounds existing financial strain in low-income communities for households and healthcare systems. The dermatological presentations of the leishmaniases may result in long-term severe disfigurement, leading to stigmatization, reduced quality of life, discrimination and mental health issues. A substantial amount of recent literature points to the vulnerability pathways and burden of leishmaniasis on women, in particular, who disproportionately suffer from these impacts. These emerging foci demonstrate a need for continued international efforts to address key risk factors and population vulnerabilities if leishmaniasis control, and ultimately elimination, is to be achieved by 2030.

Spatiotemporal patterns of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the district upper and lower Dir, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan: A GIS-based spatial approaches

While Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is not a life-threatening disease, it leads to devastating effects on local community. CL is widely scattered manifesting a noticeable epidemiological pattern around the globe. The present study was planned to address the role of Geographic Information System (GIS) using CL clinico-epidemiological data to determine the high-risk areas of CL. Recorded data (2014-2018) of 3630 positive individuals was collected from Basic Health Units of the Upper and Lower Dir Districts, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Descriptive and statistical analysis was used for clinico-epidemiological characterization. For spatial analysis, ArcGIS V.10.3 was used and the CL average incidence was tagged on the proportional, choropleth, and digital elevation model maps. For focal transmission and high-risk zones, Inverse Density Weight (IDW) spatial interpolation, focal statistics, hot spot, cluster and outlier, and Bayesian geostatistical analysis were used. The trend of CL cases was elevated from 2014 to 2016 except for 2017 and 2018. Individuals of both genders younger than 20 years old were highly susceptible. Single lesions were more prominent (56%) and frequently affected facial parts (51%). The size and pretreatment duration of the CL lesion was significantly associated. Spatially, a choropleth map displayed the maximum CL incidences in Tehsil Balambat, Khal, and Termergara (31%-13%) located within a range of 948-1947m elevation in the central regions with proximal CL transmissions. Hot spot and cluster and outlier analysis affirmed that Tehsil Khal was the high-risk CL foci. The Bayesian geostatistical analysis revealed high temperature, less altitude, and annual precipitation as important risk factors. An increasing trend in CL transmission has become evident, affecting both genders and <20 years old children. GIS resolute the concealed CL hubs in the least elevated central regions which warrant the control strategies to restrict future epidemics.

High-resolution habitat suitability model for Phlebotomus pedifer, the vector of cutaneous leishmaniasis in southwestern Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Phlebotomus pedifer is the vector for Leishmania aethiopica causing cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in southwestern Ethiopia. Previous research on the transmission dynamics of CL resulted in recommendations for vector control. In order to target these interventions towards affected areas, a comprehensive understanding of the spatial distribution of P. pedifer at high spatial resolution is required. Therefore, this study determined the environmental predictors that facilitate the distribution of P. pedifer and created a map indicating the areas where conditions are suitable for survival of the vector in southwestern Ethiopia with high spatial resolution.

METHODS

Phlebotomus pedifer presence points were collected during two entomological surveys. Climate, vegetation and topographic variables were assembled. Climate variables were interpolated with variables derived from high-resolution digital elevation models to generate topoclimatic layers representing the climate conditions in the highlands. A Maximum Entropy model was run with the presence points, predicting variables and background points, which were selected based on a bias file.

RESULTS

Phlebotomus pedifer was the only captured Phlebotomus species in the study area and was collected at altitudes ranging between 1685 and 2892 m. Model projections indicated areas with suitable conditions in a 'belt' surrounding the high mountain peaks. Model performance was high, with train and test AUC values being 0.93 and 0.90, respectively. A multivariate environmental similarity surface (MESS) analysis showed that the model projection was only slightly extrapolated for some of the variables. The mean annual temperature was the environmental variable, which contributed most to the model predictions (60.0%) followed by the seasonality in rainfall (13.2%). Variables representing steep slopes showed very low importance to model predictions.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that the suitable habitats for P. pedifer correspond well with the altitudes at which CL was reported previously, but the predictions are more widely distributed, in contrast with the description of CL to occur in particular foci. Moreover, we confirm that vector distribution is driven by climate factors, suggesting inclusion of topoclimate in sand fly distribution models. Overall, our model provides a map with a high spatial resolution that can be used to target sand fly control measures in southwestern Ethiopia.

Cutaneous leishmaniasis in male schoolchildren in the upper and lower Dir districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and a review of previous record in Pakistan

Documented reports are limited, showing cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) as a severe threat to schoolchildren in Pakistan. The present study aimed to investigate the clinico-epidemiology and associated risk factors of CL in local and Afghan male schoolchildren between 6 and 16 years of age. The experimental strategy involved a questionnaire for the collection of information and clinical diagnosis (microscopy and semi-nested PCR) of 113 CL symptomatic schoolchildren out of 8,833 schoolchildren (7,175 local and 1,658 Afghan refugees) studying in nineteen schools of the Upper and Lower Dir Districts, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Previous records of CL in Pakistan was studied, and spatial analysis was performed on elevation and agro-ecological maps using Arc-GIS v10.3.1. Active lesions were found predominant (n=113, 1.2%: cutaneous lesions, 97, 86%, and lesions with mucosal involvement, 16, 14%) than scars (20, 0.25%). Active lesions of both local (100, 88%) and Afghan refugees (13, 12%), and infected age groups were found significantly different. Majority of the lesions were dry crusted (98, 86.7%), single (83, 73%), and frequently infecting facial region (59, 52%). Avoiding bed nets, living in mud houses and animal shelters were highly associated with CL infection. Temergara (30, 26.5%) and Rabath (14, 12.3%) were hyperendemic CL foci. Microscopically, 71 (63%) cases were positive, while the PCR assay revealed Leishmania tropica in 110 (97.3%) cases. Previous record revealed that L. tropica is dominant throughout Pakistan, and dry mountains and plateaus of northwestern and southwestern regions are spatially at high-risk. Measures should be taken to reduce CL infection by eliminating the associated risk factors, promoting PCR-based diagnosis and basic medical facilities.

Identification of priority areas for surveillance of cutaneous leishmaniasis using spatial analysis approaches in Southeastern Brazil

BACKGROUND

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is an important public health problem in Brazil and in several tropical regions of the world. In the Americas, Brazil is the country with the highest number of registered cases. In Brazil, the state of Minas Gerais has the highest number of cases in the southeastern region. In the present study, we used spatial analysis in the State of Minas Gerais to identify municipalities of priority during a nine-year period (2007-2015), which might be used to guide surveillance and control measures.

METHODS

An ecological study with spatial analysis of autochthonous cases of CL was performed in the state of Minas Gerais between 2007 and 2015. We calculated incidence rates, used Empirical Bayesian smoothing for each municipality, and divided the analyses into three-year intervals. In order to analyze the existence of spatial autocorrelation, and to define priority areas, Moran's Global Index and Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) were used.

RESULTS

The mean incidence rate for the entire state was 6.1/100,000 inhabitants. For Minas Gerais, analysis of CL cases over time revealed a successive increase of indicated mesoregions with high priority municipalities. Eight of the designated mesoregions contained municipalities classified as high priority areas in any of the three evaluated trienniums, and four mesoregions had high priority municipalities throughout the entire investigation.

CONCLUSIONS

Within the southeastern region of Brazil, Minas Gerais State stands out, with highest CL incidence rates. Using spatial analysis, we identified an increasing numbers of cases in the municipalities classified as high priority areas in different mesoregions of the state. This information might be of value to direct surveillance and control measures against CL and to understand the dynamics of the expansion of CL in Minas Gerais. Similar approaches might be used to map CL in other regions throughout Brazil, or in any other country, where national notification and control programs exist.