Excessive mortality and loss to follow-up among HIV-infected children in Guinea-Bissau, West Africa: a retrospective follow-up study

Clinical presentations and outcomes of HIV-1 and HIV-2 among infected children in Guinea-Bissau: a nationwide study

OBJECTIVES

Disease progression, loss to follow-up, and mortality of HIV-2 compared with HIV-1 in children is not well understood. This is the first nationwide study reporting outcomes in children with the two HIV types in Guinea-Bissau.

STUDY DESIGN

Nationwide retrospective follow-up study.

METHODS

This is a retrospective follow-up study among HIV-infected children <15 years at nine ART centers from 2006 to 2021. Baseline parameters and disease outcomes for children with HIV-2 and HIV-1 were compared.

RESULTS

The annual number of children diagnosed with HIV peaked in 2017. HIV-2 (n = 64) and HIV-1 (n = 1945) infected children were different concerning baseline median age (6.5 vs 3.1 years, P < 0.01), but had similar levels of severe immunodeficiency (P = 0.58) and severe anemia (P = 0.26). Within the first year of follow-up, 36.3% were lost, 5.9% died, 2.7% had transferred clinic, and 55.2% remained for follow-up. Mortality (HR = 1.05 95% CI: 0.53-2.08 for HIV-2) and attrition (HR = 0.86 95% CI: 0.62-1.19 for HIV-2) rates were similar for HIV types.

CONCLUSIONS

The decline in children diagnosed per year since 2017 is possibly due to lower HIV prevalence, lack of HIV tests, and the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. Children with HIV-2 were twice as old as HIV-1 infected when diagnosed, which suggests a slower disease progression. However, once they develop immunosuppression mortality is similar.

Predicting the loss to follow-up (LTFU) of HIV/AIDS patients in China using a recency-frequency (RF) model

BACKGROUND

We constructed a recency-frequency (RF) model for predicting the loss to follow-up (LTFU) in HIV/AIDS patients in China.

METHODS

Data on HIV/AIDS outpatients in the research unit from 1 August 2009 to 30 September 2020 and from 1 October to 31 December 2020 were exported as the observation and prediction datasets, respectively. The classic recency-frequency-monetary (RFM) model was expanded into RFm, RF, RFL and RFmL models. In the observation dataset, the best predictive model was obtained using k-means clustering and C5.0 verification. Then, two rounds of k-means modelling were performed on the best model: data with R ≤ 6 months were retained, randomly divided into a training set (70%) and a testing set (30%) and used to perform the second round of modelling to subdivide the churn and non-churn patients. Next, an ANN algorithm was used to predict LTFU, and the confusion matrix with prediction datasets was constructed.

RESULTS

The observation and prediction datasets included 16 949 and 10 748 samples, respectively. The RF model with three clusters and a quality of 0.82 was the best predictive model. From the observation set, 13 799 samples were retained, and the model accuracy was 100% on the training and testing sets. These 13 799 samples were subdivided into 1563 samples of churn patients and 12 216 samples of non-churn patients. The accuracy of ANN prediction was 99.89%. The accuracy and precision of the confusion matrix were 85.41% and 99.76%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The RF model is effective in predicting the LTFU of HIV/AIDS patients in China and preventing its occurrence.

Mother-to-child HIV-2 transmission: comparison with HIV-1 and evaluation of factors influencing the rate of transmission. A systematic review

A review and collection of data on HIV-2 mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) is absent in the literature. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to provide a pooled estimate of the rate of HIV-2 MTCT and to identify factors influencing the rate of transmission. PubMed and EMBASE were used to identify eligible publications using a sensitive search strategy. All publications until February 2021 were considered; 146 full-text articles were assessed. Observational studies describing the rate of HIV-2 MTCT in a defined HIV-2 infected study population were included. Other publication types and studies describing HIV-1 or dually infected populations were excluded. Nine studies consisting of 901 mother-child pairs in West Africa, France and Portugal were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled rate estimate of HIV-2 MTCT for antiretroviral therapy-naïve women was 0.2% (95% CI 0.03 to 1.47%), considerably lower than that for HIV-1. The levels of maternal HIV RNA and CD4 cell count were positively related to the vertical transmission rate. Maternal HIV-2 infection did not significantly affect perinatal mortality. It was concluded that the vertical transmission of HIV-2 is lower than that of HIV-1. Maternal viral load and CD4 cell count appear to influence the rate of HIV-2 MTCT.

HIV-1 and HIV-2 prevalence, risk factors and birth outcomes among pregnant women in Bissau, Guinea-Bissau: a retrospective cross-sectional hospital study

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a leading cause of maternal morbidity and mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa. Prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) has proven an effective strategy to end paediatric infections and ensure HIV-infected mothers access treatment. Based on cross-sectional data collected from June 2008 to May 2013, we assessed changes in HIV prevalence, risk factors for HIV, provision of PMTCT antiretroviral treatment (ART), and the association between HIV infection, birth outcomes and maternal characteristics at the Simão Mendes National Hospital, Guinea-Bissau's largest maternity ward. Among 24,107 women, the HIV prevalence was 3.3% for HIV-1, 0.8% for HIV-2 and 0.9% for HIV-1/2. A significant decline in HIV-1, HIV-2, and HIV-1/2 prevalence was observed over time. HIV infection was associated with age and ethnicity. A total of 85% of HIV-infected women received ART as part of PMTCT, yet overall treatment coverage during labour and delivery declined significantly for both mothers and infants. Twenty-two percent of infants did not receive treatment, and 67% of HIV-2-infected mothers and 77% of their infants received ineffective non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors for PMTCT. Maternal HIV was associated with low birth weight but not stillbirth. Inadequate continuity of care and ART coverage present challenges to optimal PMTCT in Guinea-Bissau.

Advanced HIV: diagnosis, treatment, and prevention

Substantial progress has been made this century in bringing millions of people living with HIV into care, but progress for early HIV diagnosis has stalled. Individuals first diagnosed with advanced HIV have higher rates of mortality than those diagnosed at an earlier stage even after starting antiretroviral therapy (ART), resulting in substantial costs to health systems. Diagnosis of these individuals is hindered because many patients are asymptomatic, despite being severely immunosuppressed. Baseline CD4 counts and screening for opportunistic infections, such as tuberculosis and cryptococcus, is crucial because of the high mortality associated with these co-infections. Individuals with advanced HIV should have rapid ART initiation (except when found to have symptoms, signs, or a diagnosis of cryptococcal meningitis) and those in treatment failure should switch treatment. Overcoming barriers to testing and adherence through the development of differentiated care models and providing psychosocial support will be key in reaching populations at high risk of presenting with advanced HIV.

Implementing an integrated community based health systems strengthening approach to improve HIV survival in Northern Togo

To disseminate lessons learned from the implementation experience of a public-private sector partnership, we describe a comprehensive HIV/AIDS program including 5-year survival outcomes for individuals who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) treatment in Togo from 2010 to 2015. A retrospective case study analysis was conducted from a cohort of patients receiving ART at an HIV/AIDS care clinic in Kara Region, Togo. Kaplan-Meier curves with Log rank tests were used to compare estimated survival curves by demographic and clinical characteristics. Associations were described between survival probability and age, gender, World Health Organization (WHO) disease stage, and timing of ART initiation. Cox proportional hazard model was used to determine predictors of mortality. After approximately five-years since ART initiation (1780 days), there were 114 deaths, with a survival probability of 75.3% (95% CI: 70.3-80.6%). Participants with advanced WHO disease stage were more likely at risk of death relative to patients categorized as WHO Stage 1, with Stage 4 approximately 9 times more likely (aHR 9.22, 95% CI 4.29-19.84). Our study suggests that delivering comprehensive HIV care through a private-public partnership may serve as a model to expand and improve HIV/AIDS care as well as high quality primary care.