Predicting non-relapse mortality following allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation during first remission of acute myeloid leukemia.
Bone Marrow Transplant 2020;
56:387-394. [PMID:
32796950 DOI:
10.1038/s41409-020-01032-9]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2020] [Revised: 07/31/2020] [Accepted: 08/06/2020] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
The aim of this study was to develop a comprehensive system for predicting non-relapse mortality after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) during first complete remission (CR) of acute myeloid leukemia (AML). After dividing 2344 eligible patients randomly into a training set and a validation set, we first identified and scored five parameters, that is, age, sex, performance status, HCT-comorbidity index (HCT-CI), and donor type, on the basis of their impact on non-relapse mortality for patients in the training set. The non-relapse mortality-J (NRM-J) index using the sum of these scores was then applied to patients in the validation set, resulting in a clear differentiation of non-relapse mortality, with expected 2-year rates of 11%, 16%, 27%, and 33%, respectively (P < 0.001). The estimated c-statistic was 0.67, which was significantly higher than that of the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation score (0.60, P = 0.002) and the HCT-CI (0.57, P < 0.001). The NRM-J index showed a significant association with overall survival, but not with relapse. Our findings demonstrate that the NRM-J index is useful for predicting post-transplant non-relapse mortality for patients with AML in first CR, for whom the decision of whether to perform allogeneic HCT is critical.
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