Warm oceanographic anomalies and fishing pressure drive seabird nesting north

Population trends of seabirds in Mexican Islands at the California Current System

The Baja California Pacific Islands (BCPI) is a seabird hotspot in the southern California Current System supporting 129 seabird breeding populations of 23 species and over one million birds annually. These islands had a history of environmental degradation because of invasive alien species, human disturbance, and contaminants that caused the extirpation of 27 seabird populations. Most of the invasive mammals have been eradicated and colonies have been restored with social attraction techniques. We have recorded the number of breeding pairs annually for most of the colonies since 2008. To assess population trends, we analyzed these data and show results for 19 seabird species on ten island groups. The maximum number of breeding pairs for each nesting season was used to estimate the population growth rate (λ) for each species at every island colony. We performed a moving block bootstrap analysis to assess whether seabird breeding populations are increasing or decreasing. San Benito, Natividad, and San Jerónimo are the top three islands in terms of abundance of breeding pairs. The most widespread species is Cassin’s Auklet (Ptychoramphus aleuticus) with 14 colonies. Thirty-one populations of 14 species are significantly increasing while eleven populations of seven species are decreasing. We did not find statistical significance for 19 populations, however, 15 have λ>1 which suggest they are growing. Twelve of the 18 species for which we estimated a regional population trend are significantly increasing, including seven surface-nesting species: Brandt’s Cormorant (Phalacrocorax penicillatus), Brown Pelican (Pelecanus occidentalis), Caspian Tern (Hydroprogne caspia), Double-crested Cormorant (P. auritus), Elegant Tern (Thalasseus elegans), Laysan Albatross (Phoebastria immutabilis) and Western Gull (Larus occidentalis), and five burrow-nesting species: Ainley’s (Hydrobates cheimomnestes), Ashy (H. homochroa) and Townsend’s (H. socorroensis) Storm-Petrels, and Craveri’s (Synthliboramphus craveri) and Guadalupe (S. hypoleucus) Murrelets. The BCPI support between 400,000 and 1.4 million breeding individuals annually. Our results suggest that these islands support healthy and growing populations of seabirds that have shown to be resilient to extreme environmental conditions such as the “Blob”, and that such resilience has been strengthen from conservation and restoration actions such as the eradication of invasive mammals, social attraction techniques and island biosecurity.

Population Growth and Long-Distance Vagrancy Leads to Colonization of Europe by Elegant Terns Thalasseus elegans

Elegant terns Thalasseus elegans breed in a very limited area of the northern Gulf of California and the Pacific coast of southern California, with up to 95% (mean 78%, 1991–2014, Perez et al., 2020) of the population nesting on Isla Rasa in the northern Gulf of California. On Isla Rasa, the primary nesting colony, elegant terns suffered predation by rodents which raised the possibility of population extinction, with a substantial proportion of the world population nesting on this single island. Because of this threat, rodents were successfully removed from Isla Rasa in 1995. The removal of rodents from Isla Rasa led to a near immediate increase in the population of elegant terns. That increase was associated with a changing pattern in dispersal by the terns, including extraordinary movements to the Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic coast of the United States north to Massachusetts, and, remarkably, to western Europe. A few elegant terns successfully bred at these European localities during 2009 to the present. In this paper we use this exceptional example of long-distance dispersal to illustrate how rapid population growth during ∼ 1995 to present can lead to successful colonization of remote sites through repeated instances of vagrancy. We tested four Hypotheses that together support the idea that the growing population of elegant terns has produced increasing numbers of young, and these young have spread, through the mechanism of vagrancy, to the Pacific Northwest, the east coast of the United States, and western Europe. Our Hypotheses are: (1) The nesting population of elegant terns within their core nesting range has increased since removal of rodents from Isla Rasa; (2) Occurrence of vagrant elegant terns in the Pacific Northwest is driven by population growth within the core breeding range. (3) Occurrence of vagrant elegant terns at the east coast of the United States is driven by population growth within the core breeding range. (4) Occurrence and colonization of western Europe by elegant terns is driven by nesting population size within the core breeding range. Corollaries of these Hypotheses are, (i) that there is a time lag in occurrence of vagrants at each of these areas, based on increasing distance from the core breeding range and (ii) the number of vagrants in any given year is also related to sea surface temperature (SST), as expressed by Oceanic Niño Index, a proxy for food resource levels. Generally we found strong statistical support for each of these Hypotheses; an exception was for the occurrence of elegant terns in the Pacific Northwest, which initially occurred following El Niño events (low food supply) and profound breeding failure, but later corresponding to cold water years with high breeding success. We use elegant terns, exceptional for the highly restricted breeding range and sustained population growth over 25 years, to illustrate how growing populations may colonize very distant habitats through repeated instances of vagrancy.

The demographic decline of a sea lion population followed multi-decadal sea surface warming

The population growth of top predators depends largely on environmental conditions suitable for aggregating sufficient and high-quality prey. We reconstructed numerically the size of a resident population of California sea lions in the Gulf of California during 1978-2019 and its relation with multi-decadal sea surface temperature anomalies. This is the first multi-decadal examination of the sea surface temperature of the Gulf of California and of one of its major predators. A three-decade sustained warming explained the population's trend accounting for 92% of the variance, including a 65% decline between 1991 and 2019. Long-term warming conditions started in the late 80s, followed by the population's decline from 43,834 animals (range 34,080-58,274) in 1991 to only 15,291 (range 11,861-20,316) in 2019. The models suggested a century-scale optimum sea surface habitat occurring in mildly temperate waters, from 0.18 to 0.39 °C above the 100-year mean. The mechanistic links of this relation are still untested, but apparent diversification of pelagic fish catches suggests a reduction of high quality prey. We propose this population should be considered vulnerable to any disturbance that could add to the negative effects of the current warm sea surface conditions in the Gulf of California.