Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe

Maladaptation in cereal crop landraces following a soot-producing climate catastrophe

Aerosol-producing catastrophes like nuclear war or asteroid strikes, though rare, pose serious risks to human survival. The injected aerosols would reduce solar radiation, lower temperatures, and alter precipitation, impacting crop productivity, including for locally adapted traditional crop varieties, i.e. landraces. We assess post-catastrophic climate effects on crops with extensive landrace cultivation, barley, maize, rice, and sorghum, under climate scenarios that differ in the quantity of soot injection. Using a crop growth model, we estimate environmental stress gradients and together with genomic markers apply gradient forest offset methods to predict post-catastrophic maladaptation in landraces over time. We find landraces are most maladapted where soot-induced climate shifts were strongest. Validating our approach, gradient forest models successfully capture a signal of maize landrace adaptation in common gardens across Mexico. We further use our gradient forest models to identify landrace varieties best matched to specific post-catastrophic conditions, indicating potential substitutions for agricultural resilience. The best substituted varieties require long migration distances, often across country borders, though countries with more climatic diversity have better within-country substitutions. Our findings highlight that a soot-producing catastrophe would drive global maladaptation in landraces and suggest current adaptive diversity is insufficient for agricultural resilience.

Maladaptation in cereal crop landraces following a soot-producing climate catastrophe

Aerosol-producing global catastrophes such as nuclear war, super-volcano eruption, or asteroid strike, although rare, pose a serious threat to human survival. Light-absorbing aerosols would sharply reduce temperature and solar radiation reaching the earth's surface, decreasing crop productivity including for locally adapted traditional crop varieties, i.e. landraces. Here, we test post-catastrophic climate impacts on barley, maize, rice, and sorghum, four crops with extensive landrace cultivation, under a range of nuclear war scenarios that differ in the amount of black carbon aerosol (soot) injected into the climate model. We used a crop growth model to estimate gradients of environmental stressors that drive local adaptation. We then fit genotype environment associations using high density genomic markers with gradient forest offset (GF offset) methods and predicted maladaptation through time. As a validation, we found that our GF models successfully predicted local adaptation of maize landraces in multiple common gardens across Mexico. We found strong concordance between GF offset and disruptions in climate, and landraces of all tested crop species were predicted to be the most maladapted across space and time where soot-induced climate change was the greatest. We further used our GF models to identify landrace varieties best matched to specific post-catastrophic conditions, indicating potential substitutions for agricultural resilience. We found the best landrace genotype was often far away or in another nation, though countries with more climatic diversity had better within-country substitutions. Our results highlight that a soot-producing catastrophe would result in the global maladaptation of landraces and suggest that current landrace adaptive diversity is insufficient for agricultural resilience in the case of the soot scenarios with the greatest change to climate.

Climatic and ecological responses to Bennu-type asteroid collisions

There is an estimated chance of 0.037% that asteroid Bennu will collide with Earth in 2182 CE. The potential collision of such medium-sized asteroids can inject massive amounts of dust into the atmosphere, with unknown consequences for terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Here, we use the coupled high-top Community Earth System Model Version 2 with interactive chemistry to investigate how medium-sized asteroid strikes would affect climate, vegetation, and marine productivity. Our simulations, which inject up to 400 million tons of dust into the stratosphere, show marked disruptions in climate, atmospheric chemistry, and global photosynthesis. Global mean temperatures are projected to drop by 4°C, and global precipitation decreases by 15% in our simulations. The largest relative reductions in global terrestrial and marine net primary productivity reach 36 and 25%, respectively. Depending on the iron amount of the asteroid and the subsequent marine dust deposition, large diatom blooms occur in iron-limited regions such as the Southern Ocean and the eastern equatorial Pacific.

Roles That Psychiatrists Can Play in International Negotiations to Reduce Conflict

This Viewpoint discusses how mental health professionals can encourage dialog to reduce the possibility of military conflict.

Storable, neglected, and underutilized species of Southern Africa for greater agricultural resilience

The Southern African region suffers from drought and food system uncertainty with increased risks due to climate change, natural disasters, and global catastrophes. Increasing crop diversity with more appropriate and resilient crops is an effective way of increasing food system resilience. We focus on crop species that are native or naturalized to an area because of their increased resilience than those that are not naturally occurring. Additionally, crops that are easily stored are more useful in times of drought and disaster. In this systematic review, we use scientific interest in neglected and underutilized species (NUS) from Southern Africa to help define next steps toward their cultivation and development as a marketable crop. We found that although scientific interest is minimal for storable Southern African NUS, these crops are worth scaling up due to their economic and nutritional value. We outline next actionable steps and specific NUS for production in a more agrobiodiverse and resilient agriculture system.

Smoke-charged vortex doubles hemispheric aerosol in the middle stratosphere and buffers ozone depletion

Australian mega-wildfires in the summer of 2019-2020 injected smoke into the stratosphere, causing strong ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere. Here, we model the smoke plume and reproduce its unexpected trajectory toward the middle stratosphere at ~35-kilometer altitude. We show that a smoke-charged vortex (SCV) induced and maintained by absorbing aerosols played a key role in lofting pollutants from the lower stratosphere and nearly doubled the southern hemispheric aerosol burden in the middle stratosphere. The SCV caused a redistribution of stratospheric aerosols, which boosted heterogeneous chemistry in the middle stratosphere and enhanced ozone production, compensating for up to 70% of the ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere. As global warming continues, we expect a growing frequency and importance of SCVs in promoting the impacts of wildfires on stratospheric aerosols and chemistry.

Biomaterials-mediated radiation-induced diseases treatment and radiation protection

In recent years, the intersection of the academic and medical domains has increasingly spotlighted the utilization of biomaterials in radioactive disease treatment and radiation protection. Biomaterials, distinguished from conventional molecular pharmaceuticals, offer a suite of advantages in addressing radiological conditions. These include their superior biological activity, chemical stability, exceptional histocompatibility, and targeted delivery capabilities. This review comprehensively delineates the therapeutic mechanisms employed by various biomaterials in treating radiological afflictions impacting the skin, lungs, gastrointestinal tract, and hematopoietic systems. Significantly, these nanomaterials function not only as efficient drug delivery vehicles but also as protective agents against radiation, mitigating its detrimental effects on the human body. Notably, the strategic amalgamation of specific biomaterials with particular pharmacological agents can lead to a synergistic therapeutic outcome, opening new avenues in the treatment of radiation- induced diseases. However, despite their broad potential applications, the biosafety and clinical efficacy of these biomaterials still require in-depth research and investigation. Ultimately, this review aims to not only bridge the current knowledge gaps in the application of biomaterials for radiation-induced diseases but also to inspire future innovations and research directions in this rapidly evolving field.

Public health and nuclear winter: addressing a catastrophic threat

Despite the end of the Cold War, the world still has thousands of nuclear weapons and adversarial relations between the countries that possess them. A nuclear war could cause large and abrupt global environmental change known as nuclear winter, with potentially devastating public health consequences. A significant line of natural science research characterizes nuclear winter and its potential effect on global food security, but less has been done on the human impacts and policy implications. Therefore, this Viewpoint proposes an interdisciplinary research and policy agenda to understand and address the public health implications of nuclear winter. Public health research can apply existing tools developed for the study of other environmental and military issues. Public health policy institutions can help build preparedness and community resilience to nuclear winter. Given the extreme potential severity of nuclear winter, it should be treated as a major global public health challenge to be addressed by public health institutions and researchers.

The Use of Hydrogel-Based Materials for Radioprotection

Major causes of the radiation-induced disease include nuclear accidents, war-related nuclear explosions, and clinical radiotherapy. While certain radioprotective drug or bioactive compounds have been utilized to protect against radiation-induced damage in preclinical and clinical settings, these strategies are hampered by poor efficacy and limited utilization. Hydrogel-based materials are effective carriers capable of enhancing the bioavailability of compounds loaded therein. As they exhibit tunable performance and excellent biocompatibility, hydrogels represent promising tools for the design of novel radioprotective therapeutic strategies. This review provides an overview of common approaches to radioprotective hydrogel preparation, followed by a discussion of the pathogenesis of radiation-induced disease and the current states of research focused on using hydrogels to protect against these diseases. These findings ultimately provide a foundation for discussions of the challenges and future prospects associated with the use of radioprotective hydrogels.

Looking for the phoenix: the current research on radiation countermeasures

PURPOSE

Ionizing radiation (IR) is widely applied in radiotherapy for the treatment of over 50% of cancer patients. IR is also intensively used in medical diagnostics on a daily basis in imaging. Moreover, recent geopolitical events have re-ignited the real threat of the use of nuclear weapons. Medical radiation countermeasures represent one of the effective protection strategies against the effects of IR. The aim of this review was to summarize the most commonly used strategies and procedures in the development of radiation countermeasures and to evaluate the current state of their research, with a focus on those in the clinical trial phase.

METHODS

Clinical trials for this review were selected in accordance with the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) statement. The search was performed in the clinicaltrials.gov database as of May 2022.

RESULTS

Our search returned 263 studies, which were screened and of which 25 were included in the review. 10 of these studies had been completed, 3 with promising results: KMRC011 increased G-CSF, IL-6, and neutrophil counts suggesting potential for the treatment of hematopoietic acute radiation syndrome (H-ARS); GC4419 reduced the number of patients with severe oral mucositis and its duration; the combination of enoxaparin, pentoxifylline, and ursodeoxycholic acid reduced the incidence of focal radiation-induced liver injury.

CONCLUSION

The agents discovered so far show significant side effects or low efficacy, and hence most of the tested agents terminate in the early stages of development. In addition, the low profitability of this type of drug demotivates the private sector to invest in such research. To overcome this problem, there is a need to involve more public resources in funding. Among the technological opportunities, a deeper use of in silico approaches seems to be prospective.

Development of an Optimal Model of Combined Radiation and Biological Lesions

Since the search for the effective medication in combined lesions includes the selection of an optimal experimental model for such injuries, there is actually a study aimed at developing an optimal model of combined radiation-biology (Pasteurella) lesions. The pathogen Pasteurella multocida (as one of the most frequent pathogenic agents involved in both isolated and combined radiation-biology lesions of agricultural animals) was used as a model of a biological agent to reproduce experimental biological research. We employed the “Chinchilla” rabbits of 2.5–3.0 kg body weight as a biological model for doing combined radiation Pasteurella lesion. When determining the optimal model of combined radiation-biology (Pasteurella) lesion, we consider that in the joint action of various pathological agents on the organism, there is a synergistic effect of explosion agents, previously specifying minimal doses of external γ-radiation and pasteurellosis pathogen that in the joint action of nonfatal doses would be lethal. The first stage of the experiments determined the minimal doses of gamma rays and pasteurellosis pathogen that in joint action causes combined radiation-biology pathology. We examined 66 rabbits divided into 11 groups of 6 animals each to determine minimal doses of infectious agent-pasteurellosis pathogen. The animals of the first 9 groups were given subcutaneously Pasteurella species at doses 1·10⁹, 1·10⁸, 1·10⁷, 1·10⁶, 1·10⁵, 1·10⁴, 1·10³, 1·10², and 1·10¹ of microbial cells per animal of 0.3 ml suspension in volume; the 10th group of animals were given saline solution; the 11th served as a biological control group. In determining the minimal doses of gamma rays, we conducted experimental tests on 36 rabbits, which have been exposed to external γ-radiation in the “PUMA” system with a ¹³⁷Cs radiation source of the exposure dose of 5.38 R/min at doses 2.0, 4.0, 6.0, 8.0, 10, and 12 Gy. To specify the optimal model of radiation-pasteurellosis lesion, we used the rabbits subjected to a combined radiation-biology effect using minimal doses of gamma rays and pasteurellosis agent, leading to a lethal effect during their complex action. The researches revealed that 50% of the death of rabbits infected with pasteurellosis occurs using Pasteurella at a dose of 3.7·10⁴ microbial cells per kilogram (LD₅₀ = 3.7∙10⁴ m.c./kg), and 50% of radiation death in rabbits occurs when irradiated their gamma rays at a dose of 8.0 Gy (LD₅₀ = 8.0 Gy). The combined effect of nonlethal doses of the studied agents in the indicated doses on rabbits led to the aggravation of the course of radiation and pasteurellosis infection, causing the death of animals from combined radiation-pasteurellosis pathology. The model combined radiation-pasteurellosis disease ran its course rapidly, and the animals died 3 to 6 days after the onset. The autopsy of the animals that died from acute radiation-pasteurellosis pathogen had found swelling of the subcutaneous tissue in the pharynx and intermaxillary space of the neck, hyperemia, lymphoid nodular hyperplasia, numerous hemorrhages on the serous and mucous membranes and in the tissues of the parenchymal organs, serous or serous-fibrinous exudate, and in the chest and abdominal regions, pulmonary edema. The research stated that gamma radiation of rabbits at a dose of 8.0 Gy conducted before exposure with Pasteurella at LD₅₀ (3.7·10⁴ m.c./kg) declined the course of the pasteurellosis process, facilitated its generalization, and fastened the death of animals. Combined radiation-pasteurellosis infection ran its course rapidly, and the animals died within 3 to 6 days after the onset of the disease. The autopsy showed the pathologicoanatomic factors of the acute pasteurellosis: swelling of the subcutaneous tissue, purulent-catarrhal bronchopneumonitis, and pulmonary edema.

Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection

Atmospheric soot loadings from nuclear weapon detonation would cause disruptions to the Earth’s climate, limiting terrestrial and aquatic food production. Here, we use climate, crop and fishery models to estimate the impacts arising from six scenarios of stratospheric soot injection, predicting the total food calories available in each nation post-war after stored food is consumed. In quantifying impacts away from target areas, we demonstrate that soot injections larger than 5 Tg would lead to mass food shortages, and livestock and aquatic food production would be unable to compensate for reduced crop output, in almost all countries. Adaptation measures such as food waste reduction would have limited impact on increasing available calories. We estimate more than 2 billion people could die from nuclear war between India and Pakistan, and more than 5 billion could die from a war between the United States and Russia—underlining the importance of global cooperation in preventing nuclear war.

Ending nuclear weapons before they end us: current challenges and paths to avoiding a public health catastrophe

The United Nations Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW)-an important planetary health good-entered into legal force in January 2021. Evidence of the consequences of nuclear war, particularly the global climatic and nutritional effects of the abrupt ice age conditions from even a relatively small regional nuclear war, indicates that these are more severe than previously thought. None of the nine nuclear-armed states is disarming; instead, all invest enormously in new and more hazardous nuclear weapons. Nor has any of the 32 states claiming reliance on another state's nuclear weapons yet ended such reliance. These factors, abrogation of existing nuclear arms control agreements, policies of first nuclear use and war fighting, growing armed conflicts worldwide, and increasing use of information and cyberwarfare, exacerbate dangers of nuclear war. Evidence-based advocacy by health professionals on the planetary health imperative to eliminate nuclear weapons has never been more urgent.

Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war

Nuclear war, beyond its devastating direct impacts, is expected to cause global climatic perturbations through injections of soot into the upper atmosphere. Reduced temperature and sunlight could drive unprecedented reductions in agricultural production, endangering global food security. However, the effects of nuclear war on marine wild-capture fisheries, which significantly contribute to the global animal protein and micronutrient supply, remain unexplored. We simulate the climatic effects of six war scenarios on fish biomass and catch globally, using a state-of-the-art Earth system model and global process-based fisheries model. We also simulate how either rapidly increased fish demand (driven by food shortages) or decreased ability to fish (due to infrastructure disruptions), would affect global catches, and test the benefits of strong prewar fisheries management. We find a decade-long negative climatic impact that intensifies with soot emissions, with global biomass and catch falling by up to 18 ± 3% and 29 ± 7% after a US-Russia war under business-as-usual fishing-similar in magnitude to the end-of-century declines under unmitigated global warming. When war occurs in an overfished state, increasing demand increases short-term (1 to 2 y) catch by at most ∼30% followed by precipitous declines of up to ∼70%, thus offsetting only a minor fraction of agricultural losses. However, effective prewar management that rebuilds fish biomass could ensure a short-term catch buffer large enough to replace ∼43 ± 35% of today's global animal protein production. This buffering function in the event of a global food emergency adds to the many previously known economic and ecological benefits of effective and precautionary fisheries management.

Introduction to Modern Climate Change. Andrew E. Dessler: Cambridge University Press, 2011, 252 pp, ISBN-10: 0521173159

Climate change is the variability of the climate system that includes the atmosphere, the biogeochemical cycles (Carbon cycle, Nitrogen cycle and Hydrological cycle), the land surface, ice and the biotic and abiotic components of the planet earth. Significant impact of climate change is seen in the form of rise in temperature called as global warming. Carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (N₂O) are the primary greenhouse gases (GHGs) mainly responsible for the global warming and climate change. These GHGs have drawn lot of attention due to their significant role in the global warming potential. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested to stop global warming at 1.5oC above preindustrial levels as warming beyond this level might lead to heat extremes, alter insect and plant phenology (Phenological shifts) and more occurrence of vector borne diseases. Climate change is the topic of interest in all fields of life starting from social science and going to the applied science. Global climate cycles and world food production systems are under threat due to the recent climate extreme events. These events include heat waves and change in the rainfall patterns. Thus, risk reduction intervention in the form of mitigation and adaptation is required to minimize the impacts of climate change. Mitigation option includes understanding the present and future components of the climate system and interaction among them through coupled modeling system i.e. Global Circulation Model (GCM). Finally, global issue of climate change could be addressed by taking worldwide cooperation and action and adopting sustainable measures like use of alternative energy sources. The visible benefit on recovery of climate has been seen recently through global lockdown against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

Arms sales and child health

The adverse effects of armed conflict on child health are well recognised. The relationships among the arms trade, armed conflict and child health are less clearly defined. The arms trade is one of the largest industries in the world (total expenditure US$1917 billion in 2019), generating colossal profits to private companies and individuals at the expense of taxpayers throughout the world. The money wasted on weapons designed to kill and maim should be used for more socially useful products, such as clean water, food, health and education. The sustainable development goals can be funded by diverting money from the arms companies. Health professionals and their organisations have a responsibility to children to try and curb the ever-expanding arms industry.

Observed and Potential Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Environment

Various environmental factors influence the outbreak and spread of epidemic or even pandemic events which, in turn, may cause feedbacks on the environment. The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was declared a pandemic on 13 March 2020 and its rapid onset, spatial extent and complex consequences make it a once-in-a-century global disaster. Most countries responded by social distancing measures and severely diminished economic and other activities. Consequently, by the end of April 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to numerous environmental impacts, both positive such as enhanced air and water quality in urban areas, and negative, such as shoreline pollution due to the disposal of sanitary consumables. This study presents an early overview of the observed and potential impacts of the COVID-19 on the environment. We argue that the effects of COVID-19 are determined mainly by anthropogenic factors which are becoming obvious as human activity diminishes across the planet, and the impacts on cities and public health will be continued in the coming years.

A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security

A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 °C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30°N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history.