Navigating transformation of biodiversity and climate

Perspectives on the timing of ecosystem collapse in a changing climate

Climate change is one of the most important drivers of ecosystem change, the global-scale impacts of which will intensify over the next 2 decades. Estimating the timing of unprecedented changes is not only challenging but is of great importance for the development of ecosystem conservation guidelines. Time of emergence (ToE) (point at which climate change can be differentiated from a previous climate), a widely applied concept in climatology studies, provides a robust but unexplored approach for assessing the risk of ecosystem collapse, as described by the C criterion of the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List of Ecosystems (RLE). We identified 3 main theoretical considerations of ToE for RLE assessment (degree of stability, multifactorial instead of one-dimensional analyses, and hallmarks of ecosystem collapse) and 4 sources of uncertainty when applying ToE methodology (intermodel spread, historical reference period, consensus among variables, and consideration of different scenarios), which aims to avoid misuse and errors while promoting a proper application of the framework by scientists and practitioners. The incorporation of ToE for the RLE assessments adds important information for conservation priority setting that allows prediction of changes within and beyond the time frames proposed by the RLE.

Evolutionary adaptation to climate change

When the notion of climate change emerged over 200 years ago, few speculated as to the impact of rising atmospheric temperatures on biological life. Tens of decades later, research clearly demonstrates that the impact of climate change on life on Earth is enormous, ongoing, and with foreseen effects lasting well into the next century. Responses to climate change have been widely documented. However, the breadth of phenotypic traits involved with evolutionary adaptation to climate change remains unclear. In addition, it is difficult to identify the genetic and/or epigenetic bases of phenotypes adaptive to climate change, in part because it often is not clear whether this change is plastic, genetic, or some combination of the two. Adaptive responses to climate-driven selection also interact with other processes driving genetic changes in general, including demography as well as selection driven by other factors. In this Special Issue, we explore the factors that will impact the overall outcome of climate change adaptation. Our contributions explain that traits involved in climate change adaptation include not only classic phenomena, such as range shifts and environmentally dependent sex determination, but also often overlooked phenomena such as social and sexual conflicts and the expression of stress hormones. We learn how climate-driven selection can be mediated via both natural and sexual selection, effectively influencing key fitness-related traits such as offspring growth and fertility as well as evolutionary potential. Finally, we explore the limits and opportunities for predicting adaptive responses to climate change. This contribution forms the basis of 10 actions that we believe will improve predictions of when and how organisms may adapt genetically to climate change. We anticipate that this Special Issue will inform novel investigations into how the effects of climate change unfold from phenotypes to genotypes, particularly as methodologies increasingly allow researchers to study selection in field experiments.

Toward a cohesive understanding of ecological complexity

Ecological systems are quintessentially complex systems. Understanding and being able to predict phenomena typical of complex systems is, therefore, critical to progress in ecology and conservation amidst escalating global environmental change. However, myriad definitions of complexity and excessive reliance on conventional scientific approaches hamper conceptual advances and synthesis. Ecological complexity may be better understood by following the solid theoretical basis of complex system science (CSS). We review features of ecological systems described within CSS and conduct bibliometric and text mining analyses to characterize articles that refer to ecological complexity. Our analyses demonstrate that the study of complexity in ecology is a highly heterogeneous, global endeavor that is only weakly related to CSS. Current research trends are typically organized around basic theory, scaling, and macroecology. We leverage our review and the generalities identified in our analyses to suggest a more coherent and cohesive way forward in the study of complexity in ecology.

Biodiversity transformations in the global ocean: A climate change and conservation management perspective

Understanding the biological diversity of different communities and evaluating the risks to biological sustainability in a time of rapid environmental change is a key challenge for providing an adapting management approach for biodiversity transformations in the ocean linked to human well-being. (Photo credit: Andrea Belgrano).